Equities Led Higher by Technology Stocks
Sep 13, 2018
Commentary: Equities are higher today being led by tech names, and even more specifically Apple, a day after the new iPhone release. Currently, the S&P is +.55%, the Russell is +.1%, and the Nasdaq is +1.1% with AAPL +2.9%. Bonds are rallying with TLT +.43% and the 10-year yield falling to 2.953%. Energy is reversing yesterday’s strong gains with WTI crude -2.3%, though Energy ETF’s are little changed, being helped by the overall market. Gold was up earlier, but has since reversed and is now -.22% with the miners down as well -.12%. Tech, Health Care, and Utilities are leading sectors, while Retail and Consumer Staples are laggards. Volatilities are lower with the VIX -4.7% to 12.52, RVX -2.7% to 14.47, and VXN -5% to 16.60.
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ETF 30d volatility changes
SPY:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -5%
IWM:Â Â Â Â Â -3%
QQQ:Â Â Â Â Â -6%
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Directional:
Bullish
P Seller 11,705 Sep 28th 9.5 calls to Buy 11,705 Sep 28th 10.5 calls (rolls up, ref. 10.00)
CZR Buyer 14,236 Dec 11 calls (ref. 10.62)
MGM Buyer 10,000 Nov 28 calls (ref. 27.42)
SGMS Buyer 5,000 Jan20 50 calls (ref. 28.35)
BSX Buyer 3,000 Nov 38 calls (ref. 37.60)
PDD 7,900 Sep 25 and 30 calls trade (ref. 26.98)
CVS Seller 2,500 Oct 75 – 80 call spreads to Buy 2,500 Oct 80 – 85 call spreads (ref. 77.64)
Bearish
GNC Jan 2.5 puts trade (ref. 3.44)
AABA Buyer 10,000 Oct 60 – 50 put spreads (appears to be closing, ref. 68.30)
BAC Seller 4,000 Nov 33 calls to Buy 4,000 Nov 27 puts (ref. 30.26)
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Macro:
Bullish
FXI Seller 15,630 Jan 40 puts (ref. 41.90)
EEM Buyer 10,000 Sep 42 calls (ref. 41.89)
EEM Buyer 60,000 Sep 42.5 calls (ref. 41.96)
Bearish
XLF Seller 5,000 Jan 30 calls (ref. 28.19)
EEM Buyer 12,000 Nov 39 puts (ref. 41.90)
VIX 35,400 Dec 37.5 calls trade (ref. 15.25)
QQQ Buyer 27,200 Oct 26th 170 puts (ref. 184.40)
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Financing Trades:
INTC 30,000 Sep 45 – Oct 42 JR trade (ref. 45.19)
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Upcoming Earnings:
Â
Â
|
Underlying
|
Earnings Date
|
Imp Move
|
Historical Move
|
Cheap vs Expensive
|
Quantamize Rating
|
Average Daily Vega
|
|
ADBE
|
9/13/2018
|
4.0
|
3.2
|
25.6%
|
A
|
506659
|
|
PLAY
|
9/14/2018
|
9.4
|
7.1
|
33.9%
|
C
|
11728
|
|
FDX
|
9/17/2018
|
3.3
|
3.1
|
4.8%
|
A
|
187302
|
|
ORCL
|
9/17/2018
|
5.4
|
6.4
|
-16.2%
|
C
|
116149
|
|
CBRL
|
9/18/2018
|
4.1
|
3.9
|
4.7%
|
A
|
10511
|
|
AZO
|
9/18/2018
|
5.6
|
5.3
|
4.1%
|
C
|
63837
|
|
GIS
|
9/18/2018
|
4.1
|
3.0
|
36.4%
|
B
|
24297
|
|
CPRT
|
9/19/2018
|
4.7
|
4.2
|
11.6%
|
B
|
4115
|
|
RHT
|
9/19/2018
|
8.3
|
6.6
|
26.8%
|
C
|
112641
|
|
USAT
|
9/19/2018
|
8.9
|
7.3
|
21.7%
|
C
|
3487
|
|
THO
|
9/20/2018
|
9.2
|
6.5
|
42.6%
|
D
|
9134
|
|
LEN
|
9/20/2018
|
6.6
|
4.0
|
67.0%
|
D
|
29615
|
|
DRI
|
9/20/2018
|
5.6
|
6.7
|
-16.5%
|
B
|
10525
|
|
MU
|
9/20/2018
|
7.4
|
5.6
|
32.2%
|
A
|
1572734
|
|
KBH
|
9/25/2018
|
8.6
|
5.6
|
52.9%
|
C
|
4433
|
|
NKE
|
9/25/2018
|
5.1
|
4.9
|
4.8%
|
D
|
260042
|
|
CCL
|
9/25/2018
|
4.2
|
2.9
|
45.4%
|
B
|
30580
|
|
FDS
|
9/25/2018
|
4.5
|
4.6
|
-2.9%
|
A
|
8682
|
|
CTAS
|
9/25/2018
|
5.5
|
4.3
|
27.9%
|
B
|
2450
|
|
JBL
|
9/25/2018
|
6.4
|
5.9
|
9.6%
|
B
|
2403
|
|
KMX
|
9/26/2018
|
5.9
|
5.6
|
4.2%
|
C
|
13082
|
|
BBBY
|
9/26/2018
|
10.4
|
9.2
|
12.6%
|
D
|
5992
|
|
CAG
|
9/27/2018
|
4.1
|
2.8
|
48.3%
|
C
|
9745
|
|
MKC
|
9/27/2018
|
4.8
|
4.0
|
21.1%
|
B
|
7754
|
|
MTN
|
9/28/2018
|
4.8
|
3.6
|
34.1%
|
C
|
6738
|
|
SFIX
|
10/1/2018
|
18.2
|
16.1
|
13.5%
|
F
|
26841
|
|
PEP
|
10/2/2018
|
2.5
|
1.3
|
85.2%
|
B
|
97089
|
|
PAYX
|
10/2/2018
|
3.9
|
2.3
|
69.8%
|
B
|
15734
|
|
AYI
|
10/3/2018
|
9.5
|
9.5
|
-0.7%
|
C
|
10652
|
|
STZ
|
10/4/2018
|
4.1
|
4.5
|
-8.3%
|
B
|
274383
|
|
COST
|
10/4/2018
|
3.6
|
2.7
|
33.7%
|
C
|
324120
|
|
FAST
|
10/10/2018
|
5.8
|
5.4
|
7.1%
|
B
|
9663
|
|
WBA
|
10/11/2018
|
3.8
|
4.0
|
-5.1%
|
B
|
54756
|
|
BLK
|
10/11/2018
|
3.8
|
1.7
|
120.0%
|
B
|
64883
|
|
DAL
|
10/11/2018
|
4.6
|
2.1
|
113.7%
|
D
|
101757
|
|
C
|
10/12/2018
|
3.3
|
1.5
|
120.0%
|
C
|
387307
|
|
JPM
|
10/12/2018
|
3.1
|
1.3
|
133.3%
|
C
|
385943
|
|
WFC
|
10/12/2018
|
3.4
|
1.9
|
84.3%
|
C
|
207318
|
|
PNC
|
10/12/2018
|
3.6
|
1.0
|
259.0%
|
C
|
40196
|
Â
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Volatility Standouts:
Â
Â
|
Underlying
|
2M Volatility vs Forecast
|
Q Rating
|
2M IV Change
|
IV 2M Percentile
|
Average Daily Vega
|
|
DECK
|
74.74%
|
D
|
-2.24%
|
72.73
|
2442
|
|
EXTR
|
74.51%
|
C
|
-0.75%
|
94.07
|
97209
|
|
CTXS
|
73.54%
|
C
|
-0.32%
|
30.04
|
823
|
|
CARS
|
72.84%
|
F
|
-2.15%
|
71.94
|
291107
|
|
ALLY
|
71.98%
|
C
|
6.62%
|
76.68
|
35701
|
|
DLR
|
71.51%
|
D
|
-2.39%
|
12.25
|
1092
|
|
AVY
|
71.47%
|
C
|
-0.19%
|
17.79
|
2519
|
|
CSOD
|
71.43%
|
D
|
-4.41%
|
18.18
|
90098
|
|
DF
|
71.39%
|
C
|
-3.54%
|
35.57
|
8117
|
|
COUP
|
70.59%
|
F
|
-0.54%
|
55.73
|
53192
|
|
STWD
|
70.40%
|
C
|
0.56%
|
73.52
|
274383
|
|
WU
|
70.21%
|
C
|
-3.15%
|
79.05
|
69501
|
|
AMC
|
68.80%
|
B
|
1.46%
|
17.79
|
1642
|
|
BCOR
|
68.73%
|
B
|
0.82%
|
23.32
|
18905
|
|
MAT
|
68.58%
|
C
|
1.72%
|
49.41
|
1773
|
|
BMS
|
67.53%
|
B
|
-1.34%
|
13.83
|
100405
|
|
FFIV
|
67.51%
|
B
|
-1.77%
|
60.47
|
366
|
|
ADM
|
67.25%
|
C
|
-2.38%
|
30.83
|
34072
|
|
VST
|
66.82%
|
C
|
0.84%
|
47.83
|
5130
|
|
BERY
|
66.56%
|
C
|
-1.14%
|
15.02
|
20354
|
|
AVB
|
65.51%
|
B
|
-1.87%
|
41.90
|
650576
|
|
BOOT
|
65.37%
|
C
|
0.00%
|
54.94
|
43474
|
|
ASH
|
65.09%
|
D
|
-2.18%
|
19.76
|
43976
|
|
PLAY
|
64.90%
|
C
|
-0.99%
|
9.49
|
12660
|
Â
Â
|
Underlying
|
2M Volatility vs Forecast
|
Q Rating
|
2M IV Change
|
IV 2M Percentile
|
Average Daily Vega
|
|
LPNT
|
-66.44%
|
C
|
-2.24%
|
37.15
|
2725
|
|
IDTI
|
-39.72%
|
C
|
-0.75%
|
41.90
|
8340
|
|
SKX
|
-30.58%
|
D
|
-0.32%
|
56.13
|
169492
|
|
DY
|
-30.39%
|
F
|
-2.15%
|
58.50
|
1828065
|
|
ATHN
|
-27.98%
|
B
|
6.62%
|
21.74
|
2769
|
|
EXAS
|
-27.61%
|
F
|
-2.39%
|
11.86
|
8357
|
|
CA
|
-25.24%
|
A
|
-0.19%
|
53.36
|
10270
|
|
NVRO
|
-24.54%
|
F
|
-4.41%
|
38.34
|
18832
|
|
EA
|
-22.98%
|
C
|
-3.54%
|
93.98
|
1158
|
|
GME
|
-22.12%
|
D
|
-0.54%
|
77.87
|
9485
|
|
SGMO
|
-20.71%
|
D
|
0.56%
|
99.21
|
47894
|
|
BKS
|
-17.23%
|
D
|
-3.15%
|
75.49
|
803
|
|
HSIC
|
-14.12%
|
C
|
1.46%
|
15.42
|
1669
|
|
KLAC
|
-13.06%
|
A
|
0.82%
|
83.40
|
22569
|
|
PYPL
|
-13.02%
|
C
|
1.72%
|
62.06
|
13913
|
|
LOCO
|
-12.72%
|
B
|
-1.34%
|
49.41
|
9586
|
|
FANG
|
-12.37%
|
C
|
-1.77%
|
66.01
|
9663
|
|
IBM
|
-12.26%
|
C
|
-2.38%
|
8.30
|
12151
|
|
URBN
|
-9.59%
|
C
|
0.84%
|
67.98
|
79929
|
|
IEP
|
-9.44%
|
B
|
-1.14%
|
72.73
|
61410
|
|
DVA
|
-8.64%
|
D
|
-1.87%
|
12.65
|
117660
|
|
ETP
|
-8.57%
|
D
|
0.00%
|
52.57
|
17403
|
|
WYNN
|
-8.54%
|
C
|
-2.18%
|
19.76
|
106443
|
|
SNBR
|
-8.52%
|
D
|
-0.99%
|
70.36
|
18972
|