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Traders see Crude Oil prices at USD$100/bbl by year-end as OPEC hints that there will be no production increase to fill supply gap

Sep 24, 2018

  • WTI Crude Oil prices climbed to USD$72.24/barrel today, up 2.06%, its highest levels since November 2014, after OPEC and its allies signaled less urgency to increase crude oil output.  
  • President Trump announced sanctions in May on Iranian oil exports after withdrawing from a nuclear agreement with Iran, forcing Iran to effectively lower its crude oil production.  
  • President Trump has also been putting pressure on OPEC to increase its crude oil output to meet global demand and cool rising crude oil prices, a request OPEC made clear this weekend it would do little to heed.
  • These two factors have combined to lead analysts and major oil trading houses to predict the return of USD$100/bbl crude oil prices by year-end for the first time since mid 2014. 
  • Bullish crude oil price sentiment has caused a spike in volume of investors entering call option crontracts, with a total of ~50k Brent calls being traded by 1:20PM (London time) Monday compared to just ~16k puts.

2-Year WTI Crude Oil Price per Barrel