blog

Latest from the Quantamize Blog

US stocks plunge on trade and yield concerns, closing at lows of session

Dec 04, 2018

 

US Markets End of Day Snapshot

  • US stocks plunged in today's session, falling across the board, as fears over US-China tariffs and the flattening yield curve drove profit-taking
  • The S&P 500 is currently down 3.23%, Nasdaq Composite is down 3.8%, and Russell 2000 is down 4.4%
  • As it appeared there was little progress between the US and China--confirmed by President Trump's economic adviser Larry Kudlow today--risk-off took hold today among US stocks
  • TSY 3s-5s spread remained slightly inverted, the first time since CY2008, and TSY 2s-10s spread narrowed to 12.1 basis points
  • US stocks traded with volume 20-25% above the average of the last 30 days
  • SPY, the S&P500 ETF, traded over 160 million shares, 74% above average
  • US stock futures will trade overnight before Wednesday's suspension of all US stock and fixed income trading during the national day of mouring honoring the death of President George HW Bush
  • Utilities (+0.15%), Real Estate (-1.26%), and Consumer Staples (-1.63%) stocks are the top performers in the S&P 500 today
  • Consumer Discretionary (-3.91%), Industrials (-4.35%), and Financials (-4.4%) stocks are the worst performers in the S&P 500 today
  • Investor sentiment for US stocks is negative with the advance/decline ratio for the S&P 500 currently at 0.07x
  • 205 stocks in the S&P500 are at 4-week highs while 8 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 25 stocks in the S&P 500 are overbought while 1 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • 100 stocks in the Nasdaq Composite are at 4-week highs while 96 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 497 stocks in the Nasdaq Composite are overbought while 213 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • The VIX finished higher at 20.58 after closing at 16.44 yesterday
     

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor rating and financials data.

  • Activision (ATVI) was initiated with a buy rating at Gabelli & Co. today.  Activision’s price target was set at USD$64, indicating a 37% upside.   Activision has its annual meeting next week on December 10th.  Activision is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Aphria Inc. (TSX: APHA) shares are tumbling after the company’s defense of its deal-making in Latin America failed to appease investors who were spooked by a short-seller report calling the company a “black hole”. In a company statement, Aphria said that its takeover of LATAM Holdings Inc., “was a transaction negotiated at arm’s length between two publicly traded companies, each of which retained professional financial advisors.” Aphria is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Apple (AAPL) is transferring marketing staff from other divisions to its iPhone division to help boost sales, according to a report in Bloomberg today.  Apple plans to use more aggressive marketing tactics to drive sales.  The articles report that employees describe it as a “fire drill” as Apple scrambles to deliver sales that seem to be trailing expectations.  Apple is rated “Top Buy” in both our US Large-Cap and US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • AutoZone (AZO) reports FY1Q2019 EPS that beats the highest analyst estimate while surpassing expectations for comparable same-store sales growth. AutoZone generated an EPS of USD$13.47 in FY1Q2018 while analyst expectations ranged between USD$11.97 and USD$12.68. Additionally, AutoZone’s comparable same-store sales growth of 2.7% beat the consensus estimate of 1.7%. AutoZone is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Avaya Holdings (AVYA) shares are trading higher after reporting adjusted revenue guidance in-line with analysts’ consensus. Avaya forecasts full-year revenue of between USD$3.05bn and USD$3.15bn while analysts’ forecast USD$3.08bn. Additionally, Avaya reported FY4Q2018 EPS of USD$2.41/share. Avaya is rated “Unattractive” in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Unattractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • BMW (BMW) is in talks to join peers in a collaboration on self-driving technology.  BMW is in talks with at least 2 peers to join them in developing the next generation of the technology.  BMW’s head of development said last week that companies that have gone it alone have struggled and that BMW would likely speak with other automakers.  BMW is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • BPost SA/NV (ENXTBR: BPOST) shares are spiraling after the company announced that 2019 will be a challenging year. BPost issued a profit warning for FY2019, indicating that FY2019 EBIT will likely be cut below 390mm euros. Management cited radial challenges, the structural decline of mail, and rising labor costs as reasons for the profit warnings. BPost is rated “Neutral” in our European SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Cirrus Logic Inc. (CRUS) is the most recent Apple Inc. (AAPL) supplier to pullback guidance after the Austin, Texas-based chipmaker reduced FY4Q2018 sales forecast from between USD$360mm and USD$400mm to between USD$300mm and USD$340mm. Prior to the guidance adjustment, analysts expected revenue of USD$367mm in FY4Q2018. In the last fiscal year, Apple accounted for 82% of Cirrus Logic’s sales. Cirrus Logic is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Delta Airlines (DAL) updated guidance today and said it sees 4Q top-line growth of ~7.5%, excluding third-party sales.   Delta saw November traffic up 4.2% and November capacity up 3.8%.  Delta’s November load factor was 85.8%.  Delta Airlines is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Dollar General (DG) is pulling-back its EPS guidance for the full-year, which misses the average analyst estimate. Dollar General is pulling back full-year EPS forecasts from between USD$5.95/share and USD$6.15/share to between USD$5.85/share and USD$6.05/share while analysts’ consensus call for USD$6.11/share. In reporting FY3Q2018 financials today, Dollar General beat analyst comparable sales growth expectations of 2.4% by reporting comparable sales growth of 2.8%. Dollar General is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Ferguson Plc (FERG) shares are trading lower after reporting FY1Q2019 financials that missed analyst estimates. Ferguson reported EBITA of USD$432mm while analysts expected USD$439mm. FY1Q2019 like-for-like growth of 6.7% implies that like-for-like growth slowed to 5.1% in October after generating 7.5% like-for-like growth in the first 8 weeks of the quarter. Ferguson is rated “Neutral” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our United Kingdom All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Iliad SA (ENXTPA: ILD) announced the launch of its “Delta” set-top box subscription plan that will include Netflix at no additional cost, Alexa voice assistant, and Vivendi’s myCanal. The cost of the Delta box, which includes a 10-gigabit fiber connection, will be 49.99 euros/month. Iliad is rated “Unattractive” in our European SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Kroger (KR) plans to sell groceries in Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) stores according to the Wall Street Journal.  Kroger will set up “Kroger Express” sections in 13 Walgreens stores in 2019 to test the format.  Kroger will not sell items that compete with Walgreens branded products in the sections.  Kroger is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas.  Walgreens Boots Alliance is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Microsoft (MSFT) is expanding its broadband access initiative in the US.  Microsoft will now aim to reach 3 million rural residents with its Airband Initiative which is presently in 25 states.  The program expands broadband reach into rural areas and by 2022 Microsoft plans to reach all of the 3 million people it is targeting.  Microsoft is rated “Neutral” in both our US Large-Cap and US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Movado (MOV) shares are surged by double-digits after reported FY3Q2018 financials that topped analyst estimates. Movado generated an adjusted EPS of USD$1.18/share in FY3Q2018 while analysts expected USD$1.12/share. Additionally, Movado forecasts full-year EPS to range between USD$2.45/share and USD$2.55/share. Movado is rated “Top Buy” in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Restoration Hardware (RH) shares are soaring after reporting results on Monday post-market that beat the highest analyst estimates. Restoration Hardware generated an adjusted EPS of USD$1.73 in FY3Q2018 while analyst estimates ranged between USD$1.22 and USD$1.30. Additionally, Restoration Hardware forecasts adjusted EPS of between USD$2.75 and USD$2.90 in FY4Q2018 while analysts’ consensus calls for USD$2.51. Restoration Hardware is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Tencent (700 HK) started the IPO for its Tencent Music Entertainment Group yesterday.  The launch of the IPO was positive for Spotify (SPOT) which owns 8.9% of the company.  Spotify rose 3.2% yesterday with the launch of the Tencent Music IPO.   Tencent is selling 82 million ADRs with a price range of USD$13-15, looking to raise up to USD$1.23 billion.  Tencent is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  Spotify is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Toll Brothers (TOL) reported 4Q results that beat the highest estimates.  Toll Brothers reported 4Q revenue of USD$2.46 billion while consensus was USD$2.35 billion.  Toll Brothers 4Q gross margin came at 24.1% while delivering 2,710 new homes.  Toll Brothers backlog rose to USD$5.52 billion.  Toll Brothers is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Trinity Industries (TRN) was downgraded today by Vertical Group to sell from hold.  Trinity Industries was downgraded due to softening railcar demand and an expanded large increase in pipeline capacity adversely affecting its business.  Trinity Industries is rated “Top Short” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Unattractive” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • UPS (UPS) and FedEx (FDX) were downgraded today by Morgan Stanley citing concerns over competition from Amazon’s (AMZN) freight service.  Amazon Air, as the service is known, could cause UPS and FedEx more headaches than investors realize, according to the report.  Morgan Stanley cuts its revenue estimate by 2% for each but indicated it could cut further.  UPS is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.  FedEx is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.   Amazon is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) sent a letter to the EU offering to cut the fees they charge on foreign transactions in an effort to end the EU antitrust probe.  Visa and Mastercard will reduce the interchange fees charged on debit cards to 0.2% from 0.3% and on credit cards to 1.15% from 1.5%.  The EU said it will study the offer as it reviews the industry and have a response within 6 months.  Visa is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.  Mastercard is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.  

 

US Treasuries

  • US 2-Year Treasury Notes are higher with yields down -2.85 basis points to 2.79%
  • US 5-Year Treasury Bonds are higher with yields down -3.21 basis points to 2.78%
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are higher with yields down -5.97 basis points to 2.91%
  • The US Treasury 2s-5s Spread has narrowed 0.35 basis points to -0.01%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 3.12 basis points to 0.12%
  • US Treasury 5s-10s Spread has narrowed 2.76 basis points to 0.12%

Currencies

  • EUR€ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.1342
  • GBP£ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.2716
  • CHF is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.0024
  • JPY¥ is currently down 0.792% against the USD$ to 112.76

Commodities

  • WTI Crude is currently up 0.57% to USD$53.25/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread down USD$-1.09 to USD$7.52/bbl
  • Gold is currently up 0.61% to USD$1238.21/oz

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

S&P 500 Sector ETFs - End of Day

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor ETFs - End of Day

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

 

S&P 500 Movers

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right.

Outperformers Sector Price 1D % Chg Volume
AutoZone Inc Consumer Discretionary 826 6.75%                152,038
Newmont Mining Corp Materials 32.3 1.72%            1,639,119
Entergy Corp Utilities 85.9 1.33%                794,903
Edison International Utilities 54.7 1.28%                755,585
Crown Castle International Corp Real Estate 113 1.14%                611,090
 
Underformers Sector Price 1D % Chg Volume
Advanced Micro Devices Inc Information Technology 21.4 -10.92%          24,828,547
United Rentals Inc Industrials 116 -10.85%                572,082
E*TRADE Financial Corp Financials 51.5 -8.05%            1,989,523
Wynn Resorts Ltd Consumer Discretionary 108 -7.87%            1,457,530
Micron Technology Inc Information Technology 37.9 -7.87%            9,623,719