blog

Latest from the Quantamize Blog

US stocks are higher anticipating dovish Fed, WTI rallies 3%

Dec 19, 2018

 

Market data as of

US Market Snapshot

  • US stocks are moving higher with investors anticipating a more dovish tone from the Fed today
  • The US Federal Reserve is set to release its interest rate decision today at 2pm EST 
  • WTI crud oil is 3% higher at $47.66 after its biggest three day loss since mid-2016
  • The S&P 500 is currently up 0.99%, Nasdaq Composite is up 1.02%, and Russell 2000 is up 0.65%
  • While stocks have sold off the past few months, the US Fed model, a measure of what investors are “paid” to own stocks, suggests the payoff from US stocks has not materially increased 
  • According to US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, US and Chinese trade officials continue to make progress in their talks about the trade impasse 
  • The price ratio of large-cap energy stocks to the S& 500 is back down to its lowest level since November 2001, when WTI was trading near USD$16-17/barrel 
  • Materials (+1.74%), Energy (+1.71%), and Telecom (+1.31%) stocks are the top performers in the S&P 500 today
  • Utilities (+0.62%), Consumer Staples (+0.61%), and Real Estate (+0.34%) stocks are the worst performers in the S&P 500 today
  • Investor sentiment for US stocks is positive with the advance/decline ratio for the S&P 500 currently at 4.88x
  • 1 stock in the S&P500 are at 4-week highs while 220 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 0 stocks in the S&P 500 are overbought while 105 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • 15 stocks in the Nasdaq Composite are at 4-week highs while 576 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 51 stocks in the Nasdaq Composite are overbought while 1086 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • The VIX is currently  moving down at 21.16 from yesterday's close of 25.58

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor rating and financials data.
 

  • Allergan plc (AGN) shares are falling after the company suspended the sale of its textured breast implants and tissue expanders in European markets. Allergan is also withdrawing any of its remaining supply from European markets as the result of a compulsory recall request from French regulator, Agence Nationale de Securite du Medicament. Allergan is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Brazil’s Finance Minister said he sees no restrictions to get in the way of the Boeing (BA) / Embraer (ERJ) joint venture in commercial aviation.  This comes in the wake of a labor court judge removing an injunction and sending the case back to standard courts.  The companies are close to completing the commercial aviation deal they have been working on.  Boeing is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.  Embraer is rated “Neutral” in our Brazil All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Citigroup Inc. (C) reportedly may face as much as USD$180mm in losses from loans made to an Asian hedge fund. A hedge fund managed by a unit of GF Holdings lost significant funds in foreign currency investments and it will not be able to pay back the loan made by Citigroup. The situation has prompted board-level discussions at Citigroup and is resulting in more oversight in the firm’s FX prime brokerage unit. Citigroup is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Deutsche Bank (DB: DBK) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) lost a trial in a criminal case related to losses from financial products sold to the German city of Pforzheim. Pforzheim lost millions of euros related to swaps sold by Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan in 2004 and 2008, prompting the city to sue for 12mm euro (USD$13.7mm) in losses. Deutsche Bank is rated “Neutral” in our Europea Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. JPMorgan is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • FedEx (FDX) said demand for shipping services outside the US has been weak.  As a result, FedEx cut its profit forecast and is trimming international air freight capacity.  FedEx said adjusted earnings for 2019 no greater than USD$16.60 a share.  FedEx increased its profit outlook 3 months ago only to cut it yesterday.  FedEx is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • General Electric (GE) has reportedly filed for an initial public offering (IPO) of its health-care unit in an effort to spin-off the business unit. The health care unit of General Electric is the conglomerate’s second-most profitable. The spin-off would follow a similar move by Germany-based Siemens AG (DB: SIE), which spun-off its Healthineers business in March -- Siemens Healthineers AG (XTRA: SHL) is up 32% since its IPO with a market capitalization of 37bn euro (USD$42bn). General Electric is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Unattractive” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas. Siemens AG is rated “Unattractive” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. Siemens Healthineers AG is rated “Unattractive” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • General Mills Inc. (GIS) shares are trading higher by the most in intraday trading in 31 years after reporting FY2Q2019 financials that surpassed analyst estimates. General Mills reported adjusted EPS of USD$0.85/share while analysts’ consensus called for USD$0.81/share. General Mills’ EPS beat was driven by a gross margin in the quarter of 34.5% while analysts expected only 33.7%. General Mills is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • GlaxoSmithKline (LSE: GSK) will combine its consumer business with that of Pfizer (PFE) to create a consumer products giant.  In the new company, GlaxoSmithKline will hold 68% and Pfizer will hold 32%.   The new company will have US$12.7 billion in annual sales.  The deal is expected to close in the second half of 2019.  Within 3 years the company is expected to be listed on the stock market.   GlaxoSmithKline is rated “Attractive” in our United Kingdom All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  Pfizer is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Japan Post (TSE: 6178) will take a 7% stake in US insurer Aflac (AFL).  Aflac’s biggest market is Japan.  The 7% stake is valued at USD$2.4 billion with the total investment said to be USD$2.7 billion.  The shares will be bought in the open market or via private block trades.  Japan Post is rated “Neutral” in our Japan Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  Aflac is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Micron (MU) provided a sales forecast that disappointed investors yesterday post-market.  Micron sees revenue in the present quarter coming USD$5.7-6.2 billion, well below consensus of USD$7.32 billion.   Micron cut its capex budget by USD$1.25 billion to USD$9-9.5 billion.  Analysts warn of further price competition that could weigh on the stock in the coming quarter.  Micron is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Microsoft (MSFT) is reportedly in talks with JPMorgan, who represents Mellanox Technologies, Ltd. (MLNX), to acquire the chipmaker. Prior reports have indicated that Xilinx (TCK) was in talks to acquire Mellanox. Microsoft is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. Mellanox is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas. Xilinx is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Twitter (TWTR) shows a bias towards Democrats, according to an allegation from President Trump.  The President complained about US tech companies overall and singled out Twitter in his complaint.  He said Twitter makes it hard for people to follow him, without offering specifics.  Twitter is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas

 

US Treasuries

  • US 2-Year Treasury Notes are lower with yields up 0.82 basis points to 2.65%
  • US 5-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 0.83 basis points to 2.65%
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are higher with yields down -0.91 basis points to 2.80%
  • The US Treasury 2s-5s Spread has little changed 0.01 basis points to 0%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 1.73 basis points to 0.16%
  • US Treasury 5s-10s Spread has narrowed 1.74 basis points to 0.15%

Currencies

  • EUR€ is currently up 0.563% against the USD$ to 1.1425
  • GBP£ is currently up 0.198% against the USD$ to 1.2664
  • CHF is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.0083
  • JPY¥ is currently down 0.355% against the USD$ to 112.12

Commodities

  • WTI Crude is currently up 2.83% to USD$47.55/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread little changed USD$0.09 to USD$9.21/bbl
  • Gold is currently up 0.43% to USD$1254.76/oz

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

S&P 500 Sector ETFs - Intraday

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor ETFs - Intraday

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

 

 

S&P 500 Movers

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right.

Outperformers Sector Price 1D % Chg Volume
General Electric Co Industrials 7.94 7.36%          18,428,659
General Mills Inc Consumer Staples 42.2 6.54%            1,019,836
American International Group Inc Financials 43.4 5.62%            1,146,564
Newfield Exploration Co Energy 17.6 4.55%                640,920
TechnipFMC PLC Energy 23.7 4.02%                832,165
 
Underperformers Sector Price 1D % Chg Volume
FedEx Corp Industrials 228 -9.60%            1,258,953
Allergan PLC Health Care 155 -6.56%                540,338
Macerich Co/The Real Estate 50.1 -3.30%                  75,557
Micron Technology Inc Information Technology 37.9 -2.96%          10,335,821
Hanesbrands Inc Consumer Discretionary 15.7 -2.90%                408,377