blog

Latest from the Quantamize Blog

Risk-off rules US stocks today with Apple guidance cut and weak ISM data weighing on sentiment

Jan 03, 2019

 

Actionable and Transparent Quantitative ResearchActionable and Transparent Quantitative Research

Market data as of 12:30pm EST

US Market Snapshot

  • US stocks are plunging, with risk-off sentiment fueled by growth concerns, which were reinforced by Apple's guidance cut and the ISM data
  • US ISM Manufacturing reading for December came at 54.1, well below 57.5 expected; the biggest one month drop in 10 years
  • ADP Employment report for December showed 271k jobs added, above 180k consensus
  • US Initial jobless claims for December 29th came at 231k, a touch above 220k consensus
  • The S&P 500 is currently down 1.47%, Nasdaq Composite is down 1.81%, and Russell 2000 is down 0.64%
  • Citigroup highlights the decline in forecasted S&P 500 EPS growth for CY2019 over the past 12-weeks (going back to early October) -- Citigroup cites this as a factor in the cut to its S&P 500 CY2019 year-end target from 3,100 to 2,850
  • Real Estate (+1.57%), Utilities (+0.59%), and Consumer Staples (+0.18%) stocks are the top performers in the S&P 500 today
  • Materials (-1.54%), Industrials (-1.77%), and Tech (-3.61%) stocks are the worst performers in the S&P 500 today
  • Investor sentiment for US stocks is negative with the advance/decline ratio for the S&P 500 currently at 0.43x
  • 5 stocks in the S&P500 are at 4-week highs while 14 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 0 stocks in the S&P 500 are overbought while 14 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • 23 stocks in the Nasdaq Composite are at 4-week highs while 83 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 156 stocks in the Nasdaq Composite are overbought while 109 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • The VIX is currently moving up at 24.72 from yesterday's close of 23.22

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor rating and financials data.

  • American Electric Power (AEP) was downgraded by Mizuho Securities to neutral from buy.  American Electric Power had its price target cut to USD$70 from USD$76.  American Electric Power’s target implies 4% downside from its last close.  American Electric Power consensus target is USD$78.94.  American Electric Power is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas
  • Apple (AAPL) cut its revenue forecast for fiscal 1Q19, its first guidance cut in close to 20 years.  Apple said unexpected weakness in China demand caused it to cut guidance, with USD$84 billion now expected, down from USD$89-93 billion originally expected.   Apple is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) will acquire Celgene (CELG) in a deal the values the biopharmaceutical company at USD$74bn. Celgene shareholders will receive USD$50 and one Bristol-Myers share for each Celgene share owned. Bristol-Myers is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. Celgene is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) shares plunged the most in 3 years after cutting revenue guidance for the second time in two months, citing lower ticket prices. Other airline companies are falling in sympathy with Delta, including American Airlines (AAL), which is down the most in 5 years. Delta is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas. American Airlines is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Elbit Systems of America (TASE: ESLT) has been awarded a contract by Raytheon (RTN) to develop the Two Color Laser System (TCLS) for the Multi-Spectral Targeting System. The contract concerns development in 2019. Additionally, Elbit said that its IMI Systems unit will no longer continue its cluster munitions activities. Elbit is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas. Raytheon is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Equity Bancshares (EQBK) saw its shares downgraded to market perform from outperform at Keefe, Brunette & Woods.  Equity Bancshares had its price target lowered to USD$45 from USD$47.  Equity Bancshares shares are fully valued at this level, which was cited as the main reason for the rating cut.  Equity Bancshares Apple is rated “Neutral” in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • First Solar (FSLR) was upgraded to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs.   First Solar’s price target was hiked to USD$57, up from USD$48.  Goldman Sachs says it sees “green shoots” in the solar industry with a better 2019 likely.  First Solar is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) saw its sales in India fall 3% in 2018.  Total sales in India were USD$829mm, according to a regulatory filing from Johnson & Johnson.  Johnson & Johnson’s sales fell after the Indian government decided to cap price for medical devices.  Johnson & Johnson is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas
  • Lumber Liquidators (LL) had its price target cut by Loop Capital, it was slashed to USD$10 from USD$24.  Lumber Liquidators rating was cut to hold from buy.  Loop Capital expects lower sales and margins for Lumber Liquidators in 2019, the main reason for the downgrade.  Lumber Liquidators is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Short” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Lumentum Holdings (LITE) shares are falling along with other Apple (AAPL) suppliers today, however, analysts are noting the selling is overdone. B. Riley FBR analyst Dave Kang is recommending “aggressive” buying of Lumentum on the weakness, citing that estimates already reflect weakness in Apple guidance. DA Davidson analyst Mark Kelleher, meanwhile, defended his buy recommendation on Lumentum. Lumentum is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Mellanox Technologies (MLNX) fell the most intraday in since April 2017 after naming Doug Ahrens as the company’s new Chief Financial Officer. According to Piper Jaffray’s James Fish, the hire coupled with reports of a slowdown, “is a potential indicator that Mellanox is not selling itself.” Mellanox is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas. 
     
Better Data for Better Investment DecisionsBetter Data for Better Investment Decisions

US Treasuries

  • US 2-Year Treasury Notes are higher with yields down -4.05 basis points to 2.42%
  • US 5-Year Treasury Bonds are higher with yields down -5.5 basis points to 2.40%
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are higher with yields down -4.06 basis points to 2.57%
  • The US Treasury 2s-5s Spread has narrowed 1.45 basis points to -0.02%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has little changed at 0.15%
  • US Treasury 5s-10s Spread has widened 1.44 basis points to 0.18%

Currencies

  • EUR€ is currently up 0.502% against the USD$ to 1.1401
  • GBP£ is currently up 0.206% against the USD$ to 1.2633
  • CHF is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.0112
  • JPY¥ is currently down 0.827% against the USD$ to 107.98

Commodities

  • WTI Crude is currently little changed 0.09% to USD$46.58/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread up USD$1.06 to USD$7.87/bbl
  • Gold is currently up 0.41% to USD$1289.81/oz

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

S&P 500 Sector ETFs - Intraday

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor ETFs - Intraday

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

 

We Crunch the Numbers, You Make the Trade.We Crunch the Numbers, You Make the Trade.

 

S&P 500 Movers

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right.

Outperformers Sector Price 1D % Chg Volume
Telefonica SA Financials 7.53 1.66%            18,962,093
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV Energy 58.2 1.22%               1,929,456
Banco Santander SA Health Care 4.01 0.80%            31,742,740
Deutsche Telekom AG Financials 14.9 0.74%            10,370,848
Orange SA Materials 14.2 0.60%               5,917,789
 
Underperformers Sector Price 1D % Chg Volume
Amadeus IT Group SA Materials 58.1 -5.50%               5,283,130
Kering SA Consumer Staples 381 -5.49%                  395,191
Koninklijke Philips NV Financials 29.1 -4.82%               3,816,249
Fresenius SE & Co KGaA Telecommunication Services 41.2 -4.59%               1,670,347
ASML Holding NV Health Care 132 -4.16%               1,767,143

Options
Quantitatively derived options trades TRANSPARENT AND EASILY EXECUTABLE