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US stocks rally fades in wake of Senator Rubio tweet about taxing stock buybacks the same as dividends

Feb 13, 2019

 

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Market data as of 12 noon EST

US Market Snapshot

  • The early rally in US stocks is fading after Senator Marco Rubio tweeted a plan to tax stock buybacks the same as dividends
  • The S&P 500 is currently up 0.19%, Nasdaq Composite is up 0.19%, and Russell 2000 is down 0.12%
  • Inflation remains contained with January CPI coming flat while consensus was for a 0.1% rise. In comparison, CPI contracted 0.1% M/M in December and expanded +1.9% Y/Y in December. 
  • Real average hourly earnings rose 1.7% y/y in January, up from 1.1% growth in December
  • Oil continues to rally in the wake of Saudi Arabia's additional production cuts with WTI crude above $54, last quoted at $54.23
  • Stocks newsletter writers classified as “bullish” by Investors Intelligence (II) have crept up to 49.5% (from 48.6% last week).  Optimism among newsletter writers has been climbing for 6 straight weeks, the longest streak since late November/December 2016.  Typically, II views 50% as the level where it becomes worried about too much “newsletter optimism”. 
  • Operating margins for S&P 500 companies appear to have peaked in 2Q/3Q of CY2018 as we begin to lap the implementation of the Republican tax plan.  Gross margins have been holding steady, implying management teams are successfully managing the volatility in commodity markets, while net income margins have been inching downwards.  In order to manage profitability margins going forward, S&P 500 companies will have to control future growth in spending. 
  • CFRA is arguing that Midsize companies are looking like they are the most attractive relative to other large-cap and small-cap peers with average Forward 12-month P/Es at their lowest relative level since 2009
  • Stocks with strong balance sheets have been some of the top performing US stocks with valuations now trading at a 6-year premium to those stocks with the high debt relative to cash flow (highly leveraged companies).  Typically, companies with good balance sheets are viewed as “safe” during periods of market volatility and in economic slowdowns/contractions.
  • Well over USD$30 billion has flowed into emerging markets stocks over the past 17 weeks, read more about comparative valuations in our blog post As Investors Continue to Favor Emerging Markets over Developed Markets, which Sectors Look Attractive? (click to read)
  • Energy (+1.43%), Financials (+0.46%), and Industrials (+0.45%) stocks are the top performers in the S&P 500 today
  • Consumer Staples (+0.07%), Healthcare (+0.01%), and Utilities (-0.59%) stocks are the worst performers in the S&P 500 today
  • Investor sentiment for US stocks is neutral with the advance/decline ratio for the S&P 500 currently at 1.18x
  • 197 stocks in the S&P500 are at 4-week highs while 8 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 108 stocks in the S&P 500 are overbought while 0 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • 311 stocks in the Nasdaq Composite are at 4-week highs while 29 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 650 stocks in the Nasdaq Composite are overbought while 125 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • The VIX is currently little changed at 15.82 from yesterday's close of 15.43

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor rating and financials data.
 

  • Activision Blizzard (ATVI) reported fourth quarter adjusted EPS of USD$1.29 matching consensus of USD$1.29.  Activision Blizzard reported fourth quarter total sales of USD$2.84 billion missing consensus of USD$3.04 billion.  Activision Blizzard said first quarter 2019 EPS will come around 20 cents, well below 47 cents consensus.  Its dividend was raised to 37 cents per share from 34 cents.  Activision Blizzard announced a restructuring that will see it cut 8% of its workforce.  Activision Blizzard is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Akamai Technology (AKAM) reported fourth quarter adjusted EPS of USD$1.07 beating consensus of USD$1.00.  Akamai Technology reported fourth quarter revenue of USD$713 million beating consensus of USD$703.9 million.  Akamai Technology said Ed McGowan will succeed Jim Benson as CFO.  Akamai Technology is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Black Knight Inc. (BKI) announced adjusted EPS in CY4Q2018 of USD$0.50 that beat consensus of USD$0.47. Black Knight observed 6.4% y/y revenue growth to USD$285.6mm in CY4Q2018, in line with analyst expectations. Black Knight is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Clariant (SWX: CLN) announced CY4Q2018 financials that somewhat miss analyst estimates. Clariant generated CHF1.63bn of sales in CY4Q2018 while analysts expected CHF1.73bn. Clariant reported adjusted Ebitda for FY2018 of CHF1.02bn, matching consensus of CHF1.02bn. Clariant is rated “Top Short” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Diebold Nixdorf Inc. (DBD) shares posted their largest intraday games since March 2008 after the company announced better-than expected CY4Q2018 revenue. Diebold Nixdorf reported revenue of USD$1.29bn in CY4Q2018, beating out analyst consensus of USD$1.22bn. Diebold Nixdorf also boosted its 3-year savings target from USD$250mm to USD$400mm. Diebold Nixdorf is rated “Unattractive” in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Unattractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Dish Network Corp. (DISH) announced CY4Q2018 financials that came in line with analyst expectations. Dish Network reported revenue of USD$3.31bn in CY4Q2018, slightly edging past consensus of USD$3.28bn. Dish Network’s EPS in CY4Q2018 of USD$0.64 came slightly below consensus of USD$0.67. Dish Network is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Global Payments Inc. (GPN) announced FY2019 guidance that slightly misses analyst consensus estimates. Global Payments sees FY2019 adjusted EPS between USD$5.90 and USD$6.10, the midpoint of which is slightly below consensus of USD$6.03. Global Payments expects FY2019 adjusted net revenue between USD$4.43bn and USD$4.49bn. Global Payments is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Hilton Worldwide (HLT) reported fourth quarter adjusted EPS of USD$0.79 beating consensus of USD$0.69.  Hilton Worldwide reported fourth quarter revenue of USD$2.29 billion in line with consensus of USD$2.26 billion.  Hilton Worldwide see first quarter 2019 EPS USD$0.73-0.78.  Hilton Worldwide is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Interpublic Group of Cos Inc. (IPG) reported adjusted EPS in CY4Q2018 that beat the highest analyst estimates. Interpublic Groupo announced CY4Q2018 adjusted EPS of USD$0.89, beating the highest analyst estimates that ranged between USD$0.75 and USD$0.82. Interpublic Group reported revenue of USD$2.86bn in CY4Q2018, surpassing consensus of USD$2.33bn. Interpublic Group is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • McDermott International Inc. (MDR) shares tanked after the engineering company told investors that its CY4Q2018 financials took a hit due to labor woes at a giant US natural gas export project. McDermott told investors that it expects its estimated costs for the Cameron liquefied natural gas terminal in Louisiana to increase by USD$168mm due to, “unfavorable labor productivity.” McDermott is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Molson Coors Brewing Co. (TAP)  was downgraded by Deutsche Bank to hold from buy.  The downgrade comes in the wake of the announcement that it is restating its financial statements from 2016 and 2017.   Molson Coors Brewing Co. found errors in accounting when preparing 2018 statements.  The errors were related to deferred tax liabilities for partnerships in Miller Coors.  Molson Coors Brewing is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Occidental Petroleum (OXY) reported fourth quarter core EPS of USD$1.22 beating consensus of USD$1.14.  Occidental Petroleum reported fourth quarter total sales of USD$4.76 billion matching consensus of USD$4.7 billion.  Occidental Petroleum is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Osram Licht AG (XTRA: OSR) shares popped in German trading following reports that buyout firms Bain Capital and Carlyle Group LP (CG) are partnering to make an offer for the lighting manufacturer. According to people familiar with the matter, a bid could come by the end of March if the buyout firms decide to take Osram Licht AG private. Osram Licht AG is rated “Top Short” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. Carlyle Group is rated “Neutral” in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (TMHC) shares slipped after the company announced revenue for CY4Q2018 that met the average analyst estimate. Taylor Morrison reported revenue of USD$1.46bn in CY4Q2018, in line with consensus of USD$1.47bn. Taylor Morrison announced GAAP EPS of USD$0.08, largely missing analyst consensus of USD$0.37. Taylor Morrison is rated “Attractive” in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA) shares sold off shortly after CEO Kare Schultz called the bottom for the company’s share price. Teva Pharmaceutical Industries has told investors that 2019 will be a, ‘trough,” year, releasing profit guidance about 20% below the average analyst estimate. Teva Pharmaceutical Industries is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Trip Adviser (TRIP) reported fourth quarter adjusted EPS of USD$0.27 missing consensus of USD$0.28.  Trip Adviser reported fourth quarter revenue of USD$346 million beating consensus of USD$342.8 million.   Trip Adviser is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Twilio (TWLO) reported fourth quarter adjusted EPS of USD$0.04 matching consensus of USD$0.04.  Twilio reported fourth quarter revenue of USD$204.3 million beating consensus of USD$184.5 million.  Hilton Worldwide see first quarter 2019 EPS USD$0.00-0.01, below 2 cents expected.  Twilio is rated “Top Short” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Unattractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Under Armour (UAA) reported fourth quarter adjusted EPS of USD$0.09 beating consensus of USD$0.04.  Under Armour reported fourth quarter revenue of USD$1.39 billion in line with consensus of USD$1.38 billion.  Under Armour reported a 12% drop in inventory and indicated first quarter sales will be flat, below 2% consensus.  Under Armour is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Wyndham Hotel (WH) reported fourth quarter adjusted EPS of USD$0.58 beating consensus of USD$0.56.  Wyndham Hotel reported fourth quarter revenue of USD$527 million beating consensus of USD$497.4 million.  Wyndham Hotel hiked its dividend to 29 cents from 25 cents.  Wyndham Hotel is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas

 

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US Treasuries

  • US 2-Year Treasury Notes are lower with yields up 1.85 basis points to 2.52%
  • US 5-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 1.69 basis points to 2.51%
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 0.72 basis points to 2.69%
  • The US Treasury 2s-5s Spread has narrowed 0.16 basis points to -0.01%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 1.13 basis points to 0.17%
  • US Treasury 5s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.97 basis points to 0.18%

Currencies

  • EUR€ is currently down 0.327% against the USD$ to 1.1289
  • GBP£ is currently down 0.217% against the USD$ to 1.2864
  • CHF is currently little changed against the USD$ at 0.9929
  • JPY¥ is currently up 0.344% against the USD$ to 110.86

Commodities

  • WTI Crude is currently up 2.13% to USD$54.23/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread little changed USD$-0.08 to USD$9.39/bbl
  • Gold is currently little changed 0.18% to USD$1313.16/oz
     

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

S&P 500 Sector ETFs - Intraday

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor ETFs - Intraday

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

 

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S&P 500 Movers

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Outperformers Sector Price 1D % Chg Volume
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc Consumer Discretionary 72.4 6.15%                468,766
Freeport-McMoRan Inc Materials 11.6 5.05%            3,061,054
Activision Blizzard Inc Communication Services 46.8 4.70%            5,892,675
Interpublic Group of Cos Inc/The Communication Services 22.2 3.95%                459,412
Anadarko Petroleum Corp Energy 47.5 3.57%                387,773
 
Underperformers Sector Price 1D % Chg Volume
DISH Network Corp Communication Services 28.2 -8.19%                895,665
TripAdvisor Inc Communication Services 56.6 -7.10%            1,271,948
Cerner Corp Health Care 54.5 -4.52%                708,720
Nordstrom Inc Consumer Discretionary 47.3 -4.26%                281,451
DR Horton Inc Consumer Discretionary 38.4 -2.63%                500,601
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