blog

Latest from the Quantamize Blog

Strong consumer confidence data and US-China trade progress fuel risk-on, sending US stocks higher

Feb 15, 2019

 

Better Research, Better Investments.Better Research, Better Investments.
Better Research, Better Investments.Better Research, Better Investments.

US Markets End of Day Snapshot

  • US stocks rise today with strong consumer confidence data and progress in US-China trade talks fueling risk-on sentiment
  • The S&P 500 finished up 1.09%, Nasdaq Composite up 0.61%, and Russell 2000 up 1.56%
  • Oil continues rising with Saudi Arabia's most recent cuts to production supporting higher prices; WTI is well above $55, rising 2.5% today, last quoted at $55.59
  • The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February came at 95.5, well above 93.7 expected
  • China's state TV said China has reached consensus in principle with the US on the main topics of the trade talks just concluded 
  • The US and China have agreed to keep working towards a deal ahead of the March 1st deadline with President Trump saying today the two "are a lot closer" to a deal
  • January industrial production fell 0.6% coming well below the 0.1% growth expected
  • Commodity stocks look undervalued according to quantitative strategists at JP Morgan who argue energy and materials stocks have missed the post-Christmas rally in stocks. 
  • The bounce back in European stocks may be reaching a near-term ceiling after the regional mutual funds saw outflows of USD$5.9 billion for the week ending February 13, the second largest weekly outflow on record 
  • Financials (+2.02%), Energy (+1.59%), and Healthcare (+1.47%) stocks were the top performers in the S&P 500 today
  • Real Estate (+0.51%), Telecom (+0.4%), and Utilities (+0.28%) stocks were the worst performers in the S&P 500 today
  • Investor sentiment for US stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the S&P 500 closing at 7.62x
  • 90 stocks in the S&P 500 hit 4-week highs while 15 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 80 stocks in the S&P 500 closed overbought while 1 stock closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • 328 stocks in the Nasdaq Composite hit 4-week highs while 27 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 526 stocks in the Nasdaq Composite closed overbought while 122 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • The VIX finished flat at 16.04 after closing at 16.22 yesterday

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor rating and financials data.
 

  • Air Canada (TSX: AC) said it is on track to hit C$250 million in cost savings by the end of 2019.  Total cost savings from the company’s efforted total C$220 million at the end of 2018.    Air Canada added that Canada’s new passenger-rights legislation will add to airlines’ costs and passenger fares, without giving specifics.  Air Canada is not rated on our Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Allianz (DB: ALV) saw significant outflows in the fourth quarter of 2018 with market volatility.  Allianz saw 31bn euros of outflows with 29bn of that exiting its Pimco unit.  For all of 2018, Allianz saw 51bn euros of outflows.  Allianz is rated “Neutral” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Applied Materials (AMAT) reported first quarter 2019 adjusted EPS of USD$0.81 beating consensus of USD$0.79. Applied Materials reported first quarter 2019 net revenue of USD$3.75bn matching consensus of USD$3.71bn.  Applied Materials gave second quarter guidance for revenue of USD$3.33-3.63bn.  Applied Materials is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Caesars Entertainment (CZR) shares rose after a report in the Financial Times saying that the company’s board is open to a sale or merger.  The article went on to say the board is waiting for “right opportunity”.   Caesars Entertainment has been pushed by activist investor Carl Icahn to make a sale of the company.  Caesars Entertainment is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Deere & Co (DE) reported first quarter 2019 adjusted EPS of USD$1.54 missing consensus of USD$1.75. Applied Materials reported first quarter 2019 net revenue of USD$6.94bn matching consensus of USD$6.95bn.  Deere & Co. reaffirmed guidance for full-year net income of USD$3.6bn.  Deere & Co is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas
  • Drax Group plc (LSE: DRX) shares fell after Citi said that the power plant operator’s share price does not account for capacity market risks or the possible impact of a review of the UK retail energy market. Citi slashed its recommendation for Drax from neutral to sell while also noting that shares remain elevated despite falling commodity prices. Drax is rated “Unattractive” in our United Kingdom All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Facebook (FB) and the US Federal Trade Commission are reportedly in talks to settle over privacy violations, according to people familiar with the matter. The settlement could result in a record-setting multi-billion dollar fine, according to the sources. Facebook is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • FedEx Corp. (FDX) surprised Wall Street analysts in announcing the resignation of David Bronczek, one of CEO Fred Smith’s top deputies. Raj Subramaniam will replace Bronczek as President and COO starting on March 1st. FedEx is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Industrial Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Mattel (MAT) gave guidance to investors today that largely disappointed.  Mattel said sale for the coming year will be flat while ebitda will be USD$350-400 million.  Mattel was expected to build on the momentum of its surprise strong recent results but that did not materialize.  Mattel is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Moody's Corp (MCO) announced CY4Q2018 adjusted EPS of USD$1.63 while consensus was for USD$1.69. Moody's Corp reported net sales of USD$1.06bn in CY4Q2018 while analysts expected USD$1.13bn. Moody's Corp sees FY2019 adjusted EPS between USD$7.85 and USD$8.10, in line with consensus of USD$7.82. Moody's Corp is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Newell Brands (NWL) reported fourth quarter normalized EPS of USD$0.70 beating consensus of USD$0.60.  Newell Brands reported fourth quarter revenue of USD$2.3bn just below consensus of USD$2.35bn.  Newell Brands is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Nvidia (NVDA) reported fourth quarter adjusted EPS of USD$0.80 beating consensus of USD$0.78.  Nvidia reported fourth quarter total sales of USD$2.21bn matching consensus of USD$2.2bn.  Nvidia gave 2019 revenue guidance growth of flat to slightly down, above consensus.  Nvidia is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Pepsi (PEP) reported fourth quarter adjusted EPS of USD$1.49 beating consensus of USD$1.49.  Pepsi reported fourth quarter total sales of USD$19.5bn matching consensus of USD$19.5bn.  Pepsi is making a strong cost-cutting push and expects USD$2.5bn in charges until 2023 resulting from the cost initiative.  15% of that will be for plants closures and USD$800mm will be in 2019.  Pepsi is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Plus500 Ltd. (LSE: PLUS) shares tanked after the Times of London said a USD$103mm loss for 2017 in the company's Tuesday statement was not previously show in the firm’s annual report. Plus500 has responded, saying the error was a “typo”. Plus500 is rated “Neutral” in our European SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Unattractive” in our United Kingdom All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  .
  • Scout24 AG (XTRA: G24) shares popped after the company received a USD$5.5bn boost from two private equity groups to compete with Axel Springer SE (DB: SPR) and EBay Inc. (EBAY) for dominance in Europe. The USD$5.5bn increase sweetens an equity bid from private equity groups Hellman & Friedman and Blackstone Group LP to 46 euros/share, giving Scout24 an equity value of 4.9bn euros. Scout24 is rated “Neutral” in our European SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. Axel Springer is rated “Neutral” in our European SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. EBay is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Standard Life Aberdeen Plc (LSE: SLA) shares fell after Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. (TCK) sold its entire stake in the company. Mitsubishi's stake was worth about 349.3mm pounds, or USD$447mm. Standard Life is rated “Neutral” in our United Kingdom All-Cap Global Top Stock Idea
  • Vivendi SA (ENXTPA: VIV) shares rose after the company said it will begin to select financial advisers for the partial sale of Universal Music Group. Vivendi also told investors that it will buy back as much as a quarter of its stock. Vivendi is rated “Neutral” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Wabco (WBC) reported fourth quarter adjusted EPS of USD$2.13 beating consensus of USD$1.98.  Wabco reported fourth quarter revenue of USD$911.6mm missing consensus of USD$2.35bn.  Wabco gave full-year EPS guidance of USD$7.60-8.10.  Wabco is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • XPO Logistics Inc. (XPO) shares plunged after the company reduced its FY2019 profit forecast for the second time in 2019. XPO Logistics cited softer than expected customer demand in Europe and lost business from the company’s largest customer as reasoning for the profit forecast reduction. XPO Logistics is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.  

 

Actionable and Transparent Quantitative ResearchActionable and Transparent Quantitative Research
Actionable and Transparent Quantitative ResearchActionable and Transparent Quantitative Research

US Treasuries

  • US 2-Year Treasury Notes are lower with yields up 2.27 basis points to 2.5162%
  • US 5-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 2.02 basis points to 2.4931%
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 0.9 basis points to 2.6626%
  • The US Treasury 2s-5s Spread has narrowed 0.25 basis points to -0.02%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 1.37 basis points to 0.15%
  • US Treasury 5s-10s Spread has narrowed 1.12 basis points to 0.17%

Currencies

  • EUR€ is little changed 0.027% against the USD$ in after hours to 1.1292
  • GBP£ is up 0.672% against the USD$ in after hours to 1.2889
  • CHF is little changed 0.01% against the USD$ in after hours to 0.9949
  • JPY¥ is little changed 0.045% against the USD$ in after hours to 110.43

Commodities

  • WTI Crude is up 2.17% to USD$55.59/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread up USD$0.41 to USD$10.33/bbl
  • Gold is up 0.67% to USD$1321.35/oz

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

S&P 500 Sector ETFs - End of Day

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor ETFs - End of Day

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

 

Get Unbiased Quantitative Investment Research from Advanced AI Machine Learning Technology and Maximize your ReturnsGet Unbiased Quantitative Investment Research from Advanced AI Machine Learning Technology and Maximize your Returns
Get Unbiased Quantitative Investment Research from Advanced AI Machine Learning Technology and Maximize your ReturnsGet Unbiased Quantitative Investment Research from Advanced AI Machine Learning Technology and Maximize your Returns

S&P 500 Movers

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right.

Outperformers Sector Price 1D % Chg Volume
Arista Networks Inc Information Technology 223 9.62%                401,102
CenturyLink Inc Communication Services 16.2 7.51%            3,256,440
American International Group Inc Financials 42.5 5.30%            2,865,288
DISH Network Corp Communication Services 28.2 4.04%            1,061,814
Devon Energy Corp Energy 26.4 3.99%            1,677,702
 
Underformers Sector Price 1D % Chg Volume
Newell Brands Inc Consumer Discretionary 20.8 -20.89%            4,548,762
Mattel Inc Consumer Discretionary 12.6 -18.27%            9,931,737
Applied Materials Inc Information Technology 33.7 -3.95%            6,010,325
Under Armour Inc Consumer Discretionary 17.9 -3.74%            1,249,024
Hasbro Inc Consumer Discretionary 87.8 -3.73%            1,270,134
Morning BriefA quick GLOBAL RECAP TO START YOUR DAY
Morning BriefA quick GLOBAL RECAP TO START YOUR DAY