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US stocks rise slightly, Fed minutes confirm patience with rate hike and end to balance sheet wind-down in 2019

Feb 20, 2019

 

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US Markets End of Day Snapshot

  • US stocks post slight gains in the wake of Fed minutes confirming their dovish rate stance and balance sheet wind-down end in 2019
  • The Federal Reserve minutes from the last FOMC meeting signal an uncertainly as to whether there will be more rate hikes in 2019, reinforcing the more dovish comments heard from Fed officials recently
  • The Federal Reserve minutes also show a desire to complete its asset run-off in 2019, completing the wind-down of its USD$4 trillion balance sheet
  • The S&P 500 finished up 0.18%, Nasdaq Composite up 0.03%, and Russell 2000 up 0.46%
  • Strategists at SunTrust Private Wealth Management argue that the recent gains in US stocks suggest that further gains lie ahead.  As of yesterday's close, 90% of the stocks in the S&P 500 were above their 50-day moving average. 
  • In spite of December’s weak retail sales, Wall Street analysts continue to be positive about earnings for the US consumer discretionary sector going forward.  Over the past few weeks, the Consensus outlook for consumer discretionary earnings growth has actually increased. 
  • According to Investors Intelligence (II), stocks newsletters has turned positive, currently, sitting at 51.9%, the first time the reading has broken above 50% since late October.  II typically begins to worry about too much newsletter optimism AFTER the rate breaks above 50%. 
  • While the S&P 500 is on pace for its best 2-month run since 2010, US Treasury yields continue to hover close to their recent lows.  Worries about a deceleration in global growth have fueled demand for US government bonds.  The divergence in stocks and bonds raises concerns about whether the recent rally in US stocks is over-extended.
  • US trade officials are purportedly asking their Chinese counterparts to agree to keep the value of the Chinese Renminbi stable as part of their trade negotiations.  The goal would be to neutralize any attempt by Beijing official to devalue the Yuan to counter US tariffs, etc. 
  • European stocks rise today on news from Spain's foreign minister that the EU is already working on a new Brexit proposal
  • EU officials want UK PM Theresa May to put any changes she secures to the Irish backstop to a vote in Parliament before the EU will consider voting on those changes 
  • The S&P 500 finished up 0.18%, Nasdaq Composite up 0.03%, and Russell 2000 up 0.46%
  • Materials (+1.69%), Financials (+0.58%), and Industrials (+0.49%) stocks were the top performers in the S&P 500 today
  • Consumer Staples (-0.07%), Healthcare (-0.13%), and Real Estate (-0.66%) stocks were the worst performers in the S&P 500 today
  • Investor sentiment for US stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the S&P 500 closing at 1.87x
  • 184 stocks in the S&P 500 hit 4-week highs while 3 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 129 stocks in the S&P 500 closed overbought while 2 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • 463 stocks in the Nasdaq Composite hit 4-week highs while 24 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 783 stocks in the Nasdaq Composite closed overbought while 121 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • The VIX finished flat at 15.15 after closing at 14.88 yesterday

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor rating and financials data.
 

  • Agilent Technology (A) reported first quarter 2019 core EPS of USD$0.76 beating consensus of USD$0.73. Agilent Technology reported first quarter 2019 sales of USD$1.28 billion matching consensus of USD$1.27 billion.  Agilent Technology gave 2Q 2019 EPS guidance of USD$0.70-0.72.  Agilent Technology is rated “Neutral” in our Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Air France (ENXTPA: AF) shares spiked after CEO Ben Smith struck a compromised with Pieter Elbers, easing a growing rift within the airline. Smith will back Elbers to remain as head of the airline’s Dutch arm, securing Elbers with a critical seat on the division's board. Air France is rated “Neutral” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Analog Devices Inc. (ADI) announced FY1Q2019 adjusted EPS of USD$1.33 while consensus was for USD$1.28. Analog Devices Inc. reported net sales of USD$1.54bn in FY1Q2019 while analysts expected USD$1.51bn. Analog Devices Inc. sees FY2Q2019 adjusted EPS between USD$1.23 and USD$1.37. Analog Devices Inc. is rated "Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Apple Inc. (AAPL) sales weakness in China is, “likely to continue beyond the short-term,” as they, “go beyond price points,” according to HSBC. HSBC also reaffirmed its hold rating for Apple and maintained its USD$160/share price target. HSBC cited an internal survey of Chinese customer preferences in explaining the expected weakness in China. Apple is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Avis Budget Group (CAR) reported fourth quarter adjusted EPS of USD$0.53 beating consensus of USD$0.37.  Avis Budget Group reported fourth quarter sales of USD$2.1 billion matching consensus of USD$2.05 billion.   Avis Budget Group is rated “Neutral” in our Global Top Stock Ideas and “Unattractive” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Bausch Health Cos Inc. (BHC) reported CY4Q2018 adjusted EPS of USD$1.04 while analysts expected USD$0.84. Bausch Health Cos Inc. generated net sales of USD$2.12bn in CY4Q2018, beating consensus of USD$2.08bn. Bausch Health Cos Inc. expects FY2019 adjusted Ebitda between USD$3.35bn and USD$3.50bn, the midpoint of which is slightly above consensus of USD$3.39bn. Bausch Health Cos Inc. is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. (SEHK: 293) shares jumped after the company forecasted an end to its record two-year streak of losses. Cathay Pacific Airways told investors that it expects to report a profit for FY2018, driven by a strong year for its cargo business and growth from additional routes and seats. Cathay Pacific Airways is rated “Neutral” in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • CVS Health Corp. (CVS) shares slipped after the company announced FY2019 guidance that missed the lowest analyst estimates. CVS Health Corp. told investors that it expects adjusted EPS to come between USD$6.68 and USD$6.88 in FY2019 while analyst estimates ranged from USD$6.99 and USD$7.78. CVS Health Corp. Announced CY4Q2018 adjusted EPS of USD$2.14, beating consensus of USD$2.08. CVS Health Corp. is rated "Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Devon Energy (DVN) reported fourth quarter core EPS of USD$0.10 well below consensus of USD$0.30.  Devon Energy will be separating its Canadian and Barnett assets and expects to complete that by the end of 2019.  Devon Energy increased its quarterly dividend to 9 cents per share from 8 cents and increased its share buyback program to USD$5 billion from USD$4 billion.  Devon Energy is rated “Neutral” in our Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Dialog Semiconductor Plc (XTRA: DLG) shares fell after Bankhaus Laumpe analyst Karsten Iltgen warned clients of likely, “weakish,” FY1Q2019 revenue of about USD$280mm, below consensus of roughly USD$300mm. Iltgen explained that fairly strong iPad production in the quarter will likely be offset by iPhone weakness. Dialog is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Diamondback Energy (FANG) reported fourth quarter adjusted EPS of USD$1.21 missing consensus of USD$1.58.  Diamondback Energy reported fourth quarter adjusted ebitda of USD456.5 million missing consensus of USD485.3 million.  Diamondback Energy saw production of 16,816 mboe/day in the fourth quarter.  Devon Energy is rated “Unattractive” in our Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Fresenius SE (DB: FRE) shares rose after the German health conglomerate promised investors that new deals and new drugs will accelerate growth, beginning next year. Fresenius also told investors that it will target 7% per annum sales growth and 9% per annum net income growth from 2020 to 2023. Fresenius is rated “Neutral” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Gannett Co Inc. (GCI) reported CY4Q2018 adjusted EPS of USD$0.44, slightly missing expectations for USD$0.46. Gannett Co Inc. generated net sales of USD$751.4mm in CY4Q2018, missing consensus of USD$764.3mm. Gannett Co Inc. is rated "Attractive” in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Garmin (GRMN) shares soared after reporting adjusted EPS of USD$1.02, beating the highest analyst estimates that ranged between USD$0.77 and USD$0.84. Garmin expects FY2019 adjusted EPS of roughly USD$3.70, also beating the highest analyst estimates that ranged between USD$3.41 and USD$3.56. Garmin is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Henry Schein Inc. (HSIC) announced CY4Q2018 adjusted EPS of USD$1.12 while consensus was for USD$1.11. Henry Schein Inc. reported net sales of USD$3.38bn in CY4Q2018 while analysts expected USD$3.46bn. Analysts expect Henry Schein Inc. to report an adjusted EPS of USD$0.96 in CY1Q2019. Henry Schein Inc. is rated "Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Herbalife Nutrition (HLF) reported fourth quarter adjusted EPS of USD$0.63 beating consensus of USD$0.60.  Herbalife Nutrition reported fourth quarter sales of USD$1.19 billion matching consensus of USD$1.19 billion.  Herbalife Nutrition is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Jack in the Box (JACK) reported fourth quarter adjusted operating EPS of USD$1.35 beating consensus of USD$1.28.  Jack in the Box reported fourth quarter sales of USD$290.8 million matching consensus of USD$286 million.  Same store sales fell 0.1% in the quarter.  Jack in the Box is rated “Neutral” in our Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • J Sainsbury PLC (LSE: SBRY) shares tanked on reports that the UK supermarket chain’s prospective merger with Walmart’s (WMT) Asda is near collapse. Reports cite that antitrust regulators are requiring harsher-than-expected conditions for the prospective merger to be approved. Sainsbury is rated “Attractive” in our United Kingdom All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. Walmart is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • LendingClub Corp. (LC) shares slumped after the marketplace lender offered disappointing guidance for its CY4Q2018 earnings. LendingClub CEO Scott Sanborn said on a conference call with analysts, “So far in 2019, market conditions are similar to last quarter. We demonstrated resilience last year, and we will be enhancing that resilience given the uncertain macroeconomic outlook for 2019.” LendingClub is rated “Neutral” in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LSE: LLOY) shares jumped after the British lender announced a share buyback worth 1.75bn pounds (USD$2.3bn). The share buyback signals that Lloyds has enough capital to ride out any uncertainty relating to Brexit, to which it has high exposure through its UK consumer loan book. Lloyds Banking Group is rated “Neutral” in our United Kingdom All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Lululemon (LULU) was downgraded to by Nomura Instinet to neutral from buy.  Nomura Instinet made the downgrade based solely on valuation after the stock ran 24%.  The price target was hiked to USD$157 from USD$140 together with the rating drop.  Lululemon is rated “Attractive” in our Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Owens Corning (OC) reported CY4Q2018 adjusted EPS of USD$1.38 while analysts expected USD$1.26. Owens Corning generated net sales of USD$1.72bn in CY4Q2018, beating consensus of USD$1.68bn. Owens Corning is rated "Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Realty Income Corp. (O) reported fourth quarter FFO of USD$0.73 per share in line with consensus of USD$0.74.  Realty Income Corp reported fourth quarter adjusted revenue of USD$344.4 million in line with consensus of USD$342 million.  Realty Income Corp sees 2019 FFO of USD$3.23-3.29 per share.  Realty Income Corp is rated “Attractive” in our Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) shares fell after the company cut its CY1Q2019 outlook due to lingering effects of the US government shutdown. Southwest now sees CY1Q2019 revenue USD$60mm below previous guidance. Southwest also told investors that, “the company has continued to experience softness in passenger demand and bookings as a result of the government shutdown.” Southwest is rated "Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Swedbank AB (OM: SWED A) shares tanked following reports that the bank may have handled more than USD$4.3bn in laundered money. From 2007 to 2015, some 50 customers may have transferred about 40bn kronor (USD$4.3bn) between Swedbank and Danske Bank A/S (CPSE: DANSKE). Swedbank spokesman Gabriel Francke Rodau has since responded to the reports saying that the bank, “doesn’t recognize,” those numbers. Swedbank is rated “Attractive” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. Danske Bank is rated “Top Short” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) announced CY4Q2018 adjusted EPS of USD$0.35 while consensus was for a loss of USD$0.02. Targa Resources Corp. reported net sales of USD$2.60bn in CY4Q2018, missing consensus of USD$2.91bn. Targa Resources Corp. is rated "Top Short” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • The Southern Co. (SO) reported CY4Q2018 adjusted EPS of USD$0.25 while analysts expected USD$0.23. The Southern Co. generated net sales of USD$5.34bn in CY4Q2018, beating consensus of USD$4.96bn. The Southern Co. is rated "Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • UBS Group AG (SWX: UBSG) will pay a fine worth 4.5bn euros, or USD$5.1bn, mandated by a French court that found the bank guilty of helping wealthy French clients stash funds in undeclared Swiss accounts.  The court accuses UBS of illegally providing French customers with banking services to hide assets from tax authorities. UBS is rated “Neutral” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Wix.com (WIX) shares fell sharply lower after the customized web developer projected FY2019 revenue and free cash flow that missed consensus expectations. Wix.com also projects just 550k net premium additions in FY2019, down from the 760k net premium additions in FY2018. Wix.com is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.

 

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US Treasuries

  • US 2-Year Treasury Notes are lower with yields up 1.24 basis points to 2.49%
  • US 5-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 1.18 basis points to 2.46%
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 1.26 basis points to 2.64%
  • The US Treasury 2s-5s Spread has narrowed 0.06 basis points to -0.03%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has widened 0.02 basis points to 0.15%
  • US Treasury 5s-10s Spread has widened 0.08 basis points to 0.18%

Currencies

  • EUR€ is little changed 0.035% against the USD$ in after hours to 1.1337
  • GBP£ is little changed 0.122% against the USD$ in after hours to 1.3046
  • CHF is little changed 0% against the USD$ in after hours to 0.9989
  • JPY¥ is up 0.244% against the USD$ in after hours to 110.9

Commodities

  • WTI Crude is up 1.48% to USD$56.92/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread down USD$-0.51 to USD$9.69/bbl
  • Gold is little changed -0.19% to USD$1338.41/oz

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

S&P 500 Sector ETFs - End of Day

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor ETFs - End of Day

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

 

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S&P 500 Movers

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Outperformers Sector Price 1D % Chg Volume
Garmin Ltd Consumer Discretionary 66.2 17.04%            1,117,798
Devon Energy Corp Energy 26.4 6.92%            2,510,315
Host Hotels & Resorts Inc Real Estate 17.4 6.26%            1,436,179
CF Industries Holdings Inc Materials 43.3 6.12%                787,482
Cadence Design Systems Inc Information Technology 45.3 4.62%            1,514,011
 
Underformers Sector Price 1D % Chg Volume
CVS Health Corp Health Care 63.8 -8.10%            3,613,657
Concho Resources Inc Energy 122 -7.07%            1,048,135
Southwest Airlines Co Industrials 49.7 -5.65%            2,087,344
Take-Two Interactive Software Inc Communication Services 106 -4.93%            2,030,688
Henry Schein Inc Health Care 81.1 -4.66%            1,409,034
Morning BriefA quick GLOBAL RECAP TO START YOUR DAY
Morning BriefA quick GLOBAL RECAP TO START YOUR DAY