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US stocks stall as better GDP data offset by trade, geopolitical concerns

Feb 28, 2019

 

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Market data as of 12:15pm EST

US Market Snapshot

  • US stocks are stalled today, trading in a tight range with better GDP data being offset by concerns over trade and North Korea talks that collapsed
  • The S&P 500 is currently down 0.09%, Nasdaq Composite is up 0.08%, and Russell 2000 is down 0.15%
  • US GDP grew at 2.6% in the fourth quarter coming above the 2.2% consensus and down from the 3.4%growth of the third quarter
  • The US abruptly ended talks with North Korea saying the country insisted on the end of all US sanctions; North Korea has denied that was the demand
  • Both US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow gave optimistic outlooks when asked about trade negotiations with China  
  • US Core PCE rose at 1.7% in the fourth quarter, a touch above the 1.6% consensus and 1.6% of last quarter
  • Chicago Purchasing Managers Index in February was 64.7, well above the 57.5 expected and above the 56.7 reading from January
  • US Initial Jobless Claims were 225,000 in the week of February 23rd, in line with the 220,000 consensus and 216,000 from the week before
  • The rally in US stocks continues to surprise traders looking for opportunities to “buy on a dip”  the S&P 500 finished above it 10-day moving average for the 37trh straight day.  This streak is the longest since April 2010. 
  • According to Goldman Sachs, their best strategy this year has been a basket of stocks with the highest revenues exposure to Western Europe.  This basket is materially outperforming both the S&P 500 and the Russell 1000, in addition to the Euro Stoxx 600. 
  • Real Estate (+1.45%), Consumer Staples (+0.64%), and Utilities (+0.54%) stocks are the top performers in the S&P 500 today
  • Consumer Discretionary (-0.33%), Energy (-0.92%), and Materials (-1.08%) stocks are the worst performers in the S&P 500 today
  • Investor sentiment for US stocks is neutral with the advance/decline ratio for the S&P 500 currently at 1.06x
  • 58 stocks in the S&P500 are at 4-week highs while 26 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 99 stocks in the S&P 500 are overbought while 4 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • 331 stocks in the Nasdaq Composite are at 4-week highs while 39 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 327 stocks in the Nasdaq Composite are overbought while 205 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • The VIX is currently little changed at 13.74 from yesterday's close of 14.7

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor rating and financials data.

Global Consumer Stocks Trending in the News

  • Anheuser-Busch Inbev (BUD, ENXTBR:ABI) reported fourth quarter adjusted EPS of USD$0.80 missing consensus of USD$1.00.  Anheuser-Busch Inbev reported fourth quarter adjusted ebitda growth of 10% (6.5% was expected) with USD$6.17 billion, above consensus of USD$6.05 billion.  Anheuser-Busch Inbev  sees   Anheuser-Busch Inbev is rated “Top Short” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings Plc (LSE: AML) shares tanked after the company announced CY4Q2018 financials and missed production targets, leading investors to doubt its October IPO valuation. CEO Andy Palmer discussed that Aston Martin’s IPO valuation was based on plans to double output to 14,000 vehicles by FY2023, but the company will not be able to notably lift production until a new plant begins deliveries next year. Aston Martin is rated “Neutral” in our United Kingdom All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Booking Holdings (BKNG) reported fourth quarter adjusted EPS of USD$22.49 beating consensus of USD$19.39.  Booking Holdings reported fourth quarter adjusted ebitda of USD$1.26 billion in line with consensus of USD$1.22 billion.  Gross travel bookings grew 9% in the quarter.  Booking Holdings gave first quarter EPS guidance of USD$10.90-11.20.  Booking Holdings is rated “Top buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Carrefour SA (ENXTPA: CA) shares traded higher after the company told investors it will begin to deepen some cost-cutting measures and lessen its retail store sales space in a move to address the trend towards e-commerce. Overall, Carrefour plans to decrease store sales space by about 10% and to trim its annual cost by 2.8bn euros by 2020 (USD$3.2mm) -- Carrefour’s initial cost cutting plan was to reduce costs by 2bn euros by 2020. Carrefour is rated “Unattractive” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Cars.com Inc. (CARS) shares moved slightly higher after it announced CY4Q2018 EPS of USD$0.50, missing the lowest analyst estimates that ranged between USD$0.51 and USD$0.65. Cars.com also told analysts that it expects revenue growth between -5% and 2% and an adjusted Ebitda margin between 30% and 31% in FY2019. Cars.com is rated “Neutral” in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • JC Penney Co. Inc. (JCP) shares soared after the retailer announced adjusted EPS of USD$0.18 in CY4Q2018, dwarfing analyst expectations of USD$0.10. JC Penney’s net sales of USD$3.67bn in CY4Q2018 slightly missed consensus for USD$3.71bn. JC Penney is rated “Unattractive” in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Short” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • JD.com Inc. (JD) shares appreciated after the company posted CY4Q2018 revenue results ahead of analyst estimates, citing Singles’ Day promotions as a notable driver. JD.com’s sales in CY4Q2018 came in at 134.8bn yuan (USD$20.2bn), surpassing consensus of 132.5bn yuan. JD.com expects FY1Q2019 revenue of between 118bn yuan and 122bn yuan, the midpoint of which edges past consensus of 118.9bn yuan. JD.com is rated “Unattractive” in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Keurig Dr. Pepper Inc. (KDP) shares fell after the company announced CY4Q2018 sales that and FY2019 EPS were slightly below analyst expectations. Keurig Dr. Pepper generated net sales of USD$2.81bn in CY4Q2018, slightly below consensus of USD$2.84bn. Keurig Dr. Pepper told analysts that it expects FY2019 adjusted EPS of between USD$1.20 and USD$1.22, missing consensus of USD$1.23. Keurig Dr. Pepper is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • L Brands (LB) reported fourth quarter 2019 adjusted EPS of USD$2.14 beating consensus of USD$2.08.  L Brands reported fourth quarter 2019 adjusted revenue of USD$4.85 billion in line with consensus of USD$4.92 billion.  L Brands gave EPS gave for the first quarter of USD$2.20-2.60  L Brands is rated “Top Short” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • LKQ Corp. (LKQ) reported fourth quarter adjusted EPS of USD$0.48 in line with consensus of USD$0.49.  LKQ reported fourth quarter revenue of USD$3.0 billion in line with consensus of USD$3.02 billion.  LKQ gave 2019 EPS guidance of USD$2.34-2.46  LKQ is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • SeaWorld (SEAS) reported fourth quarter adjusted loss of USD$0.13 per share matching consensus.  SeaWorld reported fourth quarter adjusted revenue of USD$280 million in line with consensus of USD$275.5 million.  Attendance grew 8% in the quarter.  SeaWorld upped its share buyback program by USD$158 million.  SeaWorld is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global 
  • Zalando (XTRA:ZAL) said it is giving itself 5 years to become the same size as H&M (OM:HM B).  It seeks to grow over 3 times its revenue during that time targeting 20 billion euros in revenue with profitability greater than H&M.  Zalando reported strong fourth quarter sales posting 25% sales growth.  Zalando is rated “Neutral” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.

Global Information Technology & Communication Services Stocks Trending in the News

  • HP Inc (HPQ) reported first quarter 2019 adjusted EPS of USD$0.52 matching consensus of USD$0.52.  HP Inc reported first quarter 2019 adjusted revenue of USD$14.7 billion missing consensus of USD$14.9 billion.  HP Inc gave second quarter EPS guidance of 50-53 cents per share.  HP Inc is rated “Top buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas
  • Square (SQ) reported fourth quarter adjusted EPS of USD$0.14 matching consensus of USD$0.14.  Square reported fourth quarter adjusted revenue of USD$2.22 billion in line with consensus of USD$2.26 billion.  Square gave first quarter EPS guidance of USD$0.06-0.08, well below 11.5 cents per share consensus.  Square is rated “Top Short” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.

Global Industrials Stocks Trending in the News

  • Airbus (ENXTPA:AIR) has offered to build its newest jet, the A330Neo, in the country in exchanges for orders for the place from China.  Airbus presently build A320 jets in the country at a plant in Tianjin.  China is expected to be the largest market for jets over the next 20 years with 8,000 jets worth USD$1.2 trillion to be bought.  Airbus previously offered to build the A380 in China but that never came to fruition.  Airbus is rated “Neutral” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Nielsen Holdings Plc (NLSN) announced CY4Q2018 financials slightly better than consensus and FY2019 guidance that edges past expectations. Nielsen Holdings reported an adjusted EPS of USD$0.51 in CY4Q2018, beating consensus of USD$0.49. Nielsen Holdings told analysts that it sees FY2019 adjusted EPS between USD$1.63 and USD$1.66, the midpoint of which is slightly better than consensus of USD$1.68. Nielsen Holdings is rated not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Rolls-Royce Holdings (LSE: RR.) shares fell after the jet engine maker missed its delivery targets, booked 1.3bn pounds in charges, and withdrew a bit to power a new aircraft platform. Rolls-Royce missed production targets and cited testing issues, supplier issues, and incurred costs from job cuts as reasoning. Rolls-Royce also existed Boeing’s New Midsize Aircraft project, explaining that its new engine technology will not be ready for the 2025 deadline. Rolls-Royce is rated “Unattractive” in our United Kingdom All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.

Global Commodities & Power Stocks Trending in the News

  • Engie SA (ENXTPA: ENGI) shares fell notably lower after the company announced a 3-year earnings plan that missed analyst consensus. Engie told investors that it plans to grow net recurring income by between 7% per annum and 9% per annum until 2021, which RBC Capital Markets analyst Olly Jeffery said was, “a disappointment.” Engie is rated “Neutral” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.

Global Health Care Stocks Trending in the News

  • Akorn Inc. (AKRX) shares slipped lower after the company announced Cy4Q2018 net revenue of USD$153.4mm that missed consensus of USD$164.7mm. Akorn told analysts on its conference call that it will focus on rebuilding shareholder value and move forward following its terminated merger agreement with Fresenius Kabi AG (MUN: FKB). Akorn is rated “Neutral” in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. Fresenius Kabi is rated not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Bristol-Myers (BMY) shares traded higher after it told investors that its combination with Celgene (CELG) will deliver, “substantial benefits,” to holders. The move by Bristol-Myers is in response to a letter from activist investor Starboard urging the company to oppose the deal. Bristol-Myers is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. Celgene is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Novavax (NVAX) shares plummeted by more than 50% after a pair of analysts from JPMorgan and Piper Jaffray downgraded the small-cap drugmaker following a failed late-stage study of its ResVax vaccine. Novavax’s ResVax vaccine, designed to prevent respiratory syncytial virus disease in infants via maternal immunization, did not show any statistical benefit in the study. Novavax is rated “Top Short” in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  

 

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US Treasuries

  • US 2-Year Treasury Notes are lower with yields up 2.01 basis points to 2.51%
  • US 5-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 3.53 basis points to 2.51%
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 3.07 basis points to 2.71%
  • The US Treasury 2s-5s Spread has widened 1.52 basis points to 0%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has widened 1.06 basis points to 0.2%
  • US Treasury 5s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.46 basis points to 0.2%

Currencies

  • EUR€ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.1378
  • GBP£ is currently down 0.346% against the USD$ to 1.3263
  • CHF is currently up 0.381% against the USD$ to 1.0023
  • JPY¥ is currently up 0.378% against the USD$ to 111.42

Commodities

  • WTI Crude is currently up 0.28% to USD$57.11/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread down USD$-0.39 to USD$8.7/bbl
  • Gold is currently down -0.37% to USD$1314.93/oz
     

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

S&P 500 Sector ETFs - Intraday

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor ETFs - Intraday

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

 

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S&P 500 Movers

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Outperformers Sector Price 1D % Chg Volume
Monster Beverage Corp Consumer Staples 54.7 10.16%            1,076,890
Universal Health Services Inc Health Care 127 4.46%                  82,158
Southwest Airlines Co Industrials 49.7 4.23%                887,861
Nielsen Holdings PLC Industrials 25.1 3.87%                641,511
Kraft Heinz Co/The Consumer Staples 46.9 3.45%            4,306,948
 
Underperformers Sector Price 1D % Chg Volume
HP Inc Information Technology 21 -16.23%            3,184,074
Booking Holdings Inc Consumer Discretionary 1700 -9.41%                268,916
L Brands Inc Consumer Discretionary 26.6 -9.05%                978,258
Celgene Corp Health Care 88.1 -7.86%            4,432,636
Brighthouse Financial Inc Financials 34.2 -6.13%                384,600
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