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US stocks flat midday, news of US-China meeting delay dampening sentiment

Mar 14, 2019

 

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Market data as of 12:15pm EST

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US Market Snapshot

  • US stocks are flat midday with news of a delayed Trump-Xi meeting dampening sentiment in today's session
  • With the passage of a US-China trade deal largely priced into the market, investors are nervous with any news that it may not materialize as expected
  • The S&P 500 is currently up 0.09%, Nasdaq Composite is up 0.04%, and Russell 2000 is down 0.15%
  • Initial jobless Claims for week of March 9th were 229,000, in line with 225,000 consensus and last week's 223,000
  • New Home Sales fell 6.9% in January, coming below the 0.2% gain expected 
  • According to news reports, a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping has been pushed back to the end of April.  There was hope that both leaders would meet in March following a trip to Europe by Chinese President Xi.   
  • Despite yesterday’s rally in the S&P 500, the benchmark US index failed to break above 2,815 which is a technical resistance level that formed since October 2018.  The S&P 500 has rallied 20% since hitting lows in December 2018 but the 2,815 appears to be a level where worries about decelerating global growth overwhelm any enthusiasm for US large-cap stocks 
  • Following the 2008 housing market collapse, US homeowners are finally seeing the equity in their houses surpassing mortgage debt.  The trend started in 2011 with home equity values nearly doubling since hitting a lot in 1Q of CY2011. 
  • JP Morgan argues that greater institutional coverage of small-cap stocks will help drive higher valuations and lower volatility.  Higher coverage should lead to higher liquidity. 
  • Financials (+0.59%), Tech (+0.42%), and Utilities (+0.32%) stocks are the top performers in the S&P 500 today
  • Telecom (-0.21%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.34%), and Materials (-0.65%) stocks are the worst performers in the S&P 500 today
  • Investor sentiment for US stocks is neutral with the advance/decline ratio for the S&P 500 currently at 1.02x
  • 115 stocks in the S&P500 are at 4-week highs while 10 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 69 stocks in the S&P 500 are overbought while 2 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • 162 stocks in the Nasdaq Composite are at 4-week highs while 69 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 274 stocks in the Nasdaq Composite are overbought while 185 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • The VIX is currently little changed at 13.6 from yesterday's close of 13.41

Stocks Trending in the News

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Global Consumer Stocks Trending in the News

  • Casino (ENXTPA:CO) announced it has increased its asset disposal plan to at least 2.5 billion euros by the first quarter of 2020.  Casino completed it original 1.5 billion euro plan ahead of schedule and said it received additional indications of interest that led it to increase the size of the plan. Casino guided it looks to open 300 premium and convenience stores by 2021 and increase e-commerce sales to 30% of sales in 2021 up from 18% today.  Casino is rated “Unattractive” in our European SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Dollar General (DG) reported fourth quarter EPS of USD$1.84 just a touch below USD$1.88 consensus.  Dollar General reported same store sales growth of 4% beating consensus of 2.6%.  Its quarterly dividend was hiked to 31 cents per share from 29 cents.  Dollar General gave fiscal 2019 EPS guidance of USD$6.30-6.50, below consensus of USD$6.65.  Dollar General is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Tenneco (TEN) shares slide by double-digits after the company announced CY4Q2018 earnings that missed analyst estimates. Tenneco reported an adjusted EPS of USD$1.30 in CY4Q2018 while consensus called for USD$1.41. Tenneco also announced revenue of USD$4.27bn in CY4Q2018, edging past consensus of USD$4.28bn. Tenneco is rated “Attractive” in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Volkswagen (XTRA:VOW3) increased its electric vehicle (EV) sales guidance by 50%.  On March 12th Volkswagen said it will launch 70 EV models and produce 22 million vehicles by 2028, up from 50 models and 15 million vehicles from its previous guidance.  For comparison, Volkswagen sold 80,000 EVs in 2018.  Volkswagen is rated “Neutral” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.

Global Information Technology & Communication Services Stocks Trending in the News

  • Apple (AAPL) was rated buy at Cowen in its initiation report on the stock.  Apple’s growth in services should propel it higher, with that unit being described as “an annuity.”   While acknowledging there exist challenges around its mature iPhone business Cowen sees many opportunities to grow revenue with value-added services.  Apple is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • AT&T’s (T) is hiking the price of its TV service for the second time since January.  AT&T told a judge that prices would fall if it were allowed to buy Time Warner during an antitrust case last year.  But here were are with prices rising again, with many critics complaining that regulators are not protecting customers.  AT&T is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Cloudera Inc. (CLDR) shares fell intraday by the most in nearly a year after the company announced guidance for a loss and weaker-than-expected sales in its next fiscal year. Cloudera told investors that it expects FY2020 revenue between USD$835mm and USD$855mm and a loss per share of between USD$0.32 and USD$0.36. Cloudera Inc. is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Short” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Facebook (FB) suffered large-scale outages for its Facebook and Instagram networks yesterday, with users unable to use the site for up to 11 hours in various regions of the world. Sporadic outages still appear to be happening but mostly the site seems to be back to normal.  Facebook has already mentioned the possibility of refunding advertisers whose advertisement that were paid for were never broadcast.  It is very unusual for such a mature site to be down so long.  Facebook is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Microsoft (MSFT) announced it is working with Oxford Biomedica Plc (LSE:OXB) on developing better ways to repair genes in those with life-threatening diseases.  Microsoft will contribute its Azure cloud and machine learning software to help Oxford increase the productivity and purity of the viruses it uses in the repair of malformed genes.  The initial collaboration is for 2 years with the option to extend it.  Microsoft is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.  Oxford Biomedica Plc is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • MongoDB Inc. (MDB) shares spiked to record levels after the company announced a far better-than-expected revenue outlook. The guidance initiated a slew of price target hikes, upgrades, and bullish commentary from analysts at Morgan Stanley, Rosenblatt Securities, and other Wall Street firms. Shares traded as much as 28% higher on the news while the stock is now 80% higher from its January low. MongoDB is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Unattractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Snap Inc. (SNAP) shares surged to their highest levels since September 2018 after BTIG announced a Street-high price target of USD$15/share. In a note to clients, BTIG analyst Rich Greenfield wrote, “Virtually everything that could go wrong for Snapchat over the past couple years since going public has gone wrong.” Greenfield believes that overseas advertisers will take advantage of Snap Inc.’s relatively low bid prices for ad inventory in the US, driving a stronger FY2019 than the previous year. Snap Inc. is rated “Top Short” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Unattractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Take Two Interactive Software (TTWO) shares spiked on Wednesday following rumors that the company’s board is in high-level talks to be acquired by Sony Interactive Entertainment (TSE: 6758). Sony has since rebuked rumors with spokesman Hirotaka Fukushima saying on the phone that there is, “no truth,” behind the reports. Take Two is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas. Sony is rated “Attractive” in our Japan Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.

Global Financials Stocks Trending in the News

  • Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (TSX: BAM.A) has agreed to purchase a majority stake in Oaktree Capital Group LLC (OAK), a combination that will rival Blackstone Group LP (OAK) as the world’s largest alternative asset manager. Brookfield will pay USD$4.7bn for a ~62% stake in Oaktree Capital Group. Combined, the firms will have roughly USD$475bn of assets under management that generates about USD$2.5bn of fee-related revenue. Brookfield Asset Management is rated “Unattractive” in our Canada All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. Oaktree Capital Group is rated “Attractive” in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  Blackstone Group LP is rated “Unattractive” in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Commerzbank’s (DB:CBK) potential merger with Deutsche Bank (DB:DBK) is opposed by the top employee representative at Commerzbank.  The deputy chairman of the board at Commerzbank made the comment about how the workers’ council at the bank is opposed to any merger.  Earlier in the week labor leaders at Deutsche Bank expressed the same opposition to any merger with Commerzbank.   Commerzbank is rated “Unattractive” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  Deutsche Bank is rated “Unattractive” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.

Global Industrials Stocks Trending in the News

  • Boeing (BA) has seen all of its 737 Mac aircraft around the world grounded.  It has USD$600 billion in a backlog of orders for the model and buyers are already suggesting they may cancel and opt for Airbus (AIR) models instead.  There have not been any cancelations yet, though a number of buyers have expressed the potential for canceling.    Boeing is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Embraer (ERJ) reported fourth quarter revenue of USD$1.67 billion, matching consensus; with ebitda of USD$1.8.1 million.  Embraer reaffirmed 2019 guidance and said 2019 will be a year of operational break-even.  Embraer added that Boeing’s (BA) problems with the 737 Max will not affect Embaer’s JV with Boeing.  Embaer is rated “Unattractive” in our Brazil All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  Boeing is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • General Electric (GE) said it will burn through USD$2 billion in cash over the coming year as it works to turnaround the company.  CEO Larry Culp said the “Challenges are complex but clear” and highlighted that performance in 2020 and 2021 will be noticeably better than 2019.  GE has seen USD$170 billion in market cap evaporate since its problems started.  General Electric is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Unattractive” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.

Global Commodities & Power Stocks Trending in the News

  • K+S AG (DB: SDF) shares soared after the company forecasted an earnings surge in FY2019 following a 110mm euro loss in profit in FY2018 due to an inability to dispose process water into German rivers because of a drought. K+S sees operating profit growing by as much as 40% in FY2019 to as high as 850mm euros. K+S is rated “Unattractive” in our European SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Legacy Reserves Inc. (LGCY) shares tanked after the company announced that it is reviewing all strategic options, including a sale. Legacy Reserves has reached out to Tudor Pickering & Hold L.P. and Perella Weinberg Partners L.P. as financial advisors for its next strategic choice. Legacy Reserves is rated “Unattractive” in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.

 

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US Treasuries

  • US 2-Year Treasury Notes are higher with yields down -0.41 basis points to 2.4607%
  • US 5-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 0.17 basis points to 2.4321%
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 1.26 basis points to 2.6339%
  • The US Treasury 2s-5s Spread has widened 0.58 basis points to -0.03%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has widened 1.67 basis points to 0.17%
  • US Treasury 5s-10s Spread has widened 1.09 basis points to 0.2%

Currencies

  • EUR€ is currently down 0.23% against the USD$ to 1.1301
  • GBP£ is currently down 0.457% against the USD$ to 1.3277
  • CHF is currently little changed against the USD$ at 0.9955
  • JPY¥ is currently up 0.531% against the USD$ to 111.76

Commodities

  • WTI Crude is currently up 0.65% to USD$58.64/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread down USD$-1.17 to USD$8.16/bbl
  • Gold is currently down -1.1% to USD$1294.76/oz
     

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

S&P 500 Sector ETFs - Intraday

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor ETFs - Intraday

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

 

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S&P 500 Movers

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Outperformers Sector Price 1D % Chg Volume
TechnipFMC PLC Energy 22.7 5.53%                750,472
Lam Research Corp Information Technology 140 3.92%                540,094
Mylan NV Health Care 29.3 3.39%            1,407,857
General Electric Co Industrials 8.72 3.14%          12,312,398
Northern Trust Corp Financials 86.9 2.52%                215,271
 
Underperformers Sector Price 1D % Chg Volume
Dollar General Corp Consumer Discretionary 112 -9.14%                736,254
L Brands Inc Consumer Discretionary 26.6 -3.03%                204,369
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Health Care 49.6 -2.93%            2,499,913
Western Digital Corp Information Technology 37.7 -2.90%            1,184,441
Xerox Corp Information Technology 22.8 -2.85%                188,690
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