Risk assets consolidated on rather light volumes this week as we roll into the thick of earnings season. Equities will be attempting to break out to all-time highs even as S&P 500 earnings growth is estimated to fall 4.2% in Q1 (according to FactSet.) Investors will be paying close attention to forward guidance as markets attempt to gauge growth prospects. As of writing, the S&P  is set to post a modest gain for the week (+.65%, ref. 289.85) while bonds are set to finish weaker (TLT -.90%, ref. 122.67) Cash VIX is on YTD lows (ref. 12.10) and is approaching levels last seen in October of 2018. Some earnings reports to keep an eye on next week include Citi, Goldman Sachs (Mon), Netflix, Bank of America (Tues.), Johnson and Johnson (Wed).

Highlights from this Week:

• President Trump’s threatens the EU ($11 billion on a variety of EU products)
• IMF lowers its Global GDP forecast to 3.3% from 3.5%
• March CPI print in line with expectations (0.4% vs. 0.4% est.; Core CPI 0.1% vs. 0.2% est.)
• Real Average Hourly Earnings surprise to the downside (1.3% vs. 1.9% prior)
• PPI print hotter than expected (m/m 0.6% vs. 0.3% est.)
• Chinese export data better than expected (+14.2% YoY vs. +8.7% est.)

Bullish: FXI 30,000 Jun 46 – 48 call spreads trade vs. 30,000 Jun 42 puts (appears to sell put to buy call spread, $.29, ref. 45.49)

Bullish: XOP Seller 35,000 May 32 calls to Buy 36,000 May 34 calls (untied, paid $.46, monetizes, rolls up, ref. 32.34)

Bullish: XLK Seller 11,000 Apr 72 calls to Buy 11,000 Apr 26^th 77 calls (monetizes, rolls out and up, ref, 76.34)

Bullish: SPY 20,000 May 306 calls trade (appears bought, $.10, ref. 289.60)

Bearish: TLT Buyer 40,000 Jun 120 puts (Initiates short ahead of this morning’s CPI data, paid $.40, untied, ref. 124.01)

Bearish: EFA Buyer 74,500 May 10^th 65 – 64 put spreads (opening, paid $.21, ref. 65.94)

Bearish: EWZ Buyer 10,000 Jun 41 puts (paid $2.13, ref. 41.43)

Bearish: IGV Buyer 14,9000 Apr 205 puts (paid $.25, Software ETF, ref. 215.38)