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Whoop, THERE IT IS! Blowout First Quarter GDP Growth of 3.2% plus Tepid Inflation Confirm Goldilocks Environment

Apr 26, 2019

We Crunch the Numbers, You Make the Trade.We Crunch the Numbers, You Make the Trade.
We Crunch the Numbers, You Make the Trade.We Crunch the Numbers, You Make the Trade.

 

  • You never want to jinks yourself, but it sure does seem like a Goldilocks ecomomy rigth now:  strong growth, tame inflation and very accomodative monetary stance from our friends at The Fed
  • Boom First quarter GDP growth printed today at 3.2%, blowing away consensus of 2.3%, a monster beat 
  • A build up in inventories played a big part in that number as did lower imports
  • Without inventory and import contributions, analysts suggest the growth number would be closer to 2%

 

US GDP Growth Annualized q/q, 3 Years

us gdp

 

  • At the same time we got these kick-butt GDP data, core PCE printed at 1.3%, well below the 2% target level for the Fed; there is little inflation presently
  • Corporate earnings this quarter are beating expectations for over 75% of S&P 500 companies that reported to far
  • Is there a melt-up coming?  The data certainly support it, throw in some FOMO and you could have the perfect recipe for a run to new records

 

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