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That was cold! Fed throws water on rate cut hopes, indicates rates steady for now, US stocks sell off

May 01, 2019

 

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US Markets End of Day Snapshot

  • US stocks sell off in the wake of the Fed announcement which referenced slowing growth and persistently low inflation
  • The Federal Reserve's FOMC did not raise rates as expected, it did, however, highlight inflation is below target and growth is slower, despite last week's strong GDP print
  • The S&P 500 finished down 0.75%, Nasdaq Composite is down 0.57%, and Russell 2000 is down 0.93%
  • ADP Employment Change report showed the US added 275,000 private sector jobs in April, well above the 180,000 expected and 129,000 in March
  • Read more: Hold the Phone! US Private Sector Crushes Job Growth Forecasts, The Goldilocks Economy Rocks On!
  • ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 52.8 in April, trailing the 55 expectation and 55.3 in March
  • Markit US Manufacturing Index in April was 52.6, in line with 52.4 expected and 52.4 in March
  • Most global stock markets are closed today for the May 1st Labor Day holiday
  • US Tech stocks are up 27%+ for 2019 and are drifting even higher this morning after Apple’s positive results 
  • Equity newsletter sentiment continues to inch higher, now sitting at a 7-month high according to Investors Intelligence
  • US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin called the most recent talk with China "productive", read more on  US-China talks: US warships in Taiwan Straight can only mean one thing: US - China Trade Negotiations Resume this Week
  • Has the hour for small-caps arrived?  Don't Forget About Me! Small-Caps Have Trailed Their Big Brothers, But That May Soon Change
  • Real Estate (+0.04%), Tech (-0.27%), and Healthcare (-0.3%) stocks were the top performers in the S&P 500 today
  • Consumer Staples (-1.17%), Materials (-1.84%), and Energy (-2.17%) stocks were the worst performers in the S&P 500 today
  • Investor sentiment for US stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the S&P 500 closing at 0.2x
  • 110 stocks in the S&P 500 hit 4-week highs while 43 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 91 stocks in the S&P 500 closed overbought while 9 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • 160 stocks in the Nasdaq Composite hit 4-week highs while 76 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 348 stocks in the Nasdaq Composite closed overbought while 290 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • The VIX finished flat at 13.21 after closing at 13.12 yesterday

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor rating and financials data.

Global Consumer Stocks Trending in the News

  • Caesars Entertainment (CZR) reported first quarter revenue that beat expectations with earnings that trailed.  Caesars Entertainment reported first quarter revenue of $2.12 billion, ahead of $2.08 billion consensus.  Caesars posted a loss per share of 32 cents, well below the 17 cents expected.  Caesars Entertainment is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Unattractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas  
  • Cengage (CNGO) and McGraw Hill will merge in an all stock deal that would create the second largest college textbook seller.  The new company, to be called McGraw Hill and trade under the ticker MHED, will have $3.2 billion in revenue and expects to wring $300 million in cost savings post-merger over 3 years.  The deal requires regulator approval and is expected to close early 2020.  Cengage is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas
  • Clorox (CLX) reported fiscal third quarter revenue and earnings were in line with consensus.  Clorox fiscal third quarter EPS of $1.44 came in line with $1.45 consensus.  Revenue of the third quarter of $1.55 billion came in line with $1.57 billion expected.  Clorox gave full year EPS guidance of $6.25 to $6.35, up from $6.20 to $6.40 previously.  Clorox expects sales growth of 2-3% for fiscal 2019.  Clorox is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas  
  • Estee Lauder Companies (EL) shares jumped after the company hiked its FY2019 guidance for the second time this year after its earnings exceeded analyst expectations. Thanks to surging sales in Asia, Estee Lauder now sees FY2019 adjusted EPS between $5.15 and $5.19. The cosmetics company also reported a profit and sales beat for its fiscal third quarter. Estee Lauder is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) reported first quarter earnings above consensus with revenue in line.  Hilton first quarter adjusted EPS was 80 cents, ahead of 76 cents expected.  First quarter revenue of $2.2 billion matched consensus.  Hilton hiked full year EPS guidance to $3.74 to $3.84, up from $3.66 to $3.78.  Hilton Worldwide Holdings is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas  
  • Mondelez International (MDLZ) reported first quarter adjusted earnings that beat consensus.  Mondelez International posted first quarter adjusted EPS of 65 cents, beating consensus of 61 cents.  First quarter adjusted revenue of $7.02 billion came well above $6.55 billion consensus.  Mondelez International gave adjusted EPS growth guidance of 3%-5% for 2019 with organic net revenue growth of 2%-3%.  Mondelez International is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas
  • Molson Coors (TAP) reported earnings and revenue that trailed consensus.  Molson Coors first quarter underlying EPS was 52 cents, behind 58 cents consensus.  Revenue of $2.30 billion was a touch behind the $2.33 billion expected.  Molson reported a 4.7% drop in volume of beer sold worldwide.  Molson Coors is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas  
  • Royal Caribbean (RCL) shares surged, sending other cruise liners higher, after reporting an adjusted EPS of $1.31 in the first quarter that notably beat analyst expectations for earnings of $1.11/share. Royal Caribbean also offered second quarter adjusted EPS guidance of between $2.45 and $2.50, in line with consensus expectations for $2.48. Royal Caribbean is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Tesla (TSLA) and the SEC have come to an agreement on the oversight of CEO Elon Musk’s tweet.  The two sides came up with a list of financial milestones the Musk is not allowed to tweet about.  The new deal has a list of specific items that Mr. Musk is not permitted to tweet about without first getting approval from Tesla lawyers.  The new deal has a list more extensive than the original deal signed by the parties.  Tesla is rated “Top Short” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas
  • Wynn Resorts (WYNN) was cleared by the state of Massachusetts to open a casino in the state in the wake of its sexual misconduct problems.  Massachusetts left in the place a $35 million fine related to the misconduct.  The approval contained a sharp rebuke of Wynn’s CEO’s response to the situation but did not thwart Wynn’s desire to open the casino.  Wynn Resorts is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas
  • Yum! Brands (YUM) reported first quarter earnings that came in line with sale growth that beat consensus.  Yum reported worldwide sales growth of 4%, well above 2.7% expected.  First quarter EPS of 82 cents came in line with 81 cents consensus.  Yum first quarter revenue of $1.25 billion matched consensus.  Yum saw its delivery initiatives bearings fruit in the quarter while Pizza Hut’s challenges remain.  Yum Brands is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas  

Global Information Technology Stocks Trending in the News

  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) delivered first quarter earnings and revenue in line.  AMD first quarter revenue of $1.27 billion matched consensus of $1.26 billion, growing 8%.  Adjusted EPS of 6 cents came a bit ahead if 5 cents expected.  AMD gave second quarter revenue guidance of $1.47 billion to $1.57 billion.  AMD is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Apple (AAPL) reported fiscal second quarter earnings that beat consensus.  Apple first quarter EPS was $2.46, beating $2.36 consensus.  Apple saw revenue of $58 billion in the second quarter beating consensus of $57.49 billion.  Apple announced it would buy back $75 billion worth of stock.  Apple gave third quarter revenue guidance of $52.5 billion to $54.5 billion, well above consensus of $52.2 billion.  Apple said iPhone revenue dropped to $31.05 billion from $37.6 billion a year ago.  Apple is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Qualcomm (QCOM) reported fiscal second quarter revenue and earnings that beat consensus.  Qualcomm fiscal second quarter adjusted EPS of 77 cents beat 71 cents consensus.  Second quarter adjusted revenue was $4.88 billion, a touch above $4.80 billion consensus.  Qualcomm gave fiscal third quarter revenue guidance of $9.2 billion to $10.2 billion, including, $4.5 billion to $4.7 billion from the Apple (AAPL) settlement.  Qualcomm gave third quarter adjusted EPS guidance of 70-80 cents, trailing consensus of 87 cents.  Qualcomm is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.  Apple is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Square (SQ) reported earnings and guidance trail consensus.  Square posted first quarter revenue of $489 million, ahead of $479.4 million consensus.  First quarter payment volume grew 27%.  Square gave second quarter guidance of $545 million to $555 million, below consensus.  Second quarter EPS guidance of 14 to 16 cents also trails consensus of 16 cents.  Square is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas

Global Industrial Stocks Trending in the News

  • Johnson Controls (JCI) shares traded notably higher after the company announced FY2019 earnings guidance the beat the average analyst forecast. Johnson Controls expects to generated adjusted EPS from continuing operations of between $1.85 and $1.95, the midpoint of which is well above consensus expectations for earnings of $1.81/share. Johnson Controls generated organic sales growth of 6% during the fiscal second quarter, posting top-line revenue of $5.78 billion that was slightly below expectations of $5.79 billion. Johnson Controls is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • L3 (LLL) reported first quarter earnings and revenue that beat consensus.  L3 first quarter revenue of $2.7 billion beat consensus of $2.52 billion.  EPS in the first quarter of $2.89 beat consensus of $2.49.  L3 gave full year revenue guidance of about $10.9 billion, below consensus of $11.06 billion with full year free cash flow expected to be $1.06 billion.  L3 is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas
  • Sensata Technologies (ST) shares edged slightly higher despite reporting adjusted earnings guidance for the second quarter that trailed the average analyst estimate. Sensata expects to generate an adjusted EPS of between $0.92 and $0.96, the midpoint of which is well below consensus expectations for earnings of $1.02/share. Sensata’s adjusted EPS of $0.85 in the first quarter came in line with analyst consensus for $0.85. Sensata is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.

Global Financial Stocks Trending in the News

  • MetLife (MET) reported earnings and net income that beat expectations.  MetLife first quarter EPS of $1.48 beat consensus of $1.27.  First quarter net income of $1.35 billion beat $1.25 billion consensus.  Premiums and fees grew 2% in the quarter as its return on equity rose to 10.3% from 9% a year ago.  MetLife is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas

Global Commodities & Power Stocks Trending in the News

  • Sealed Air (SEE) shares slid by more than 5% after the company announced adjusted EPS guidance for FY2019 that missed analyst expectations. Sealed Air expects to generate an adjusted EPS of between $2.65 and $2.75 during FY2019, the midpoint of which misses consensus for $2.74. Sealed Air’s adjusted EPS of $0.59 during the first quarter edged past consensus forecasts of $0.57. Sealed Air also announced the acquisition of Automated Packaging Systems for $510 million. Sealed Air is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.

Global Healthcare Stocks Trending in the News

  • Amgen (AMGN) reported earnings that beat expectations.  First quarter adjusted EPS of $3.56 beat consensus of $3.47.  Amgen first quarter revenue of $5.56 billion matched $5.57 billion consensus.  Amgen upped full year EPS guidance to $13.25 to $14.30, up from $13.10 to $14.30; full year revenue guidance is $22 billion to $22.9 billion.  Amgen is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas
  • CVS Health Corp (CVS) reported first quarter earnings and guidance that beat consensus.  CVS delivered first quarter adjusted EPS of $1.62, ahead of $1.51 expected.  First quarter same store sales grew 3.8%, well above the 2.6% consensus.  First quarter revenue of $61.65 billion topped $60.24 billion consensus.  CVS gave bullish guidance, saying it sees full year EPS in the range of $6.75 to $6.90, up from $6.68 to $6.88.  CVS sees full year revenue of $251.2 billion to $254.4 billion, up from $249.9 billion to $254.3 billion.  CVS Healthcare is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas
  • Humana (HUM) reported first quarter earnings and revenue that beat consensus.  Humana posted first quarter adjusted EPS of $4.48, ahead of $4.29 expected.  Revenue in the first quarter was $16.11 billion, beating $15.76 billion consensus.  Humana hiked full year EPS guidance to $17.25 to $17.50, up from $17 to $17.50; present consensus is $17.45.  Humana is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas
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US Treasuries

 

  • US 2-Year Treasury Notes are lower with yields up 4.03 basis points to 2.30%
  • US 5-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 2.33 basis points to 2.30%
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are higher with yields down -0.19 basis points to 2.49%
  • The US Treasury 2s-5s Spread has narrowed 1.7 basis points to 0%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 4.22 basis points to 0.19%
  • US Treasury 5s-10s Spread has narrowed 2.52 basis points to 0.2%

Currencies

  • EUR€ is down 0.196% against the USD$ in after hours to 1.1193
  • GBP£ is little changed 0.107% against the USD$ in after hours to 1.3046
  • CHF is little changed 0.143% against the USD$ in after hours to 0.9825
  • JPY¥ is little changed 0.009% against the USD$ in after hours to 111.41

Commodities

  • WTI Crude is down -0.49% to USD$63.6/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread up USD$1.2 to USD$8.76/bbl
  • Gold is down -0.56% to USD$1276.28/oz

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

S&P 500 Sector ETFs - End of Day

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor ETFs - End of Day

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

 

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S&P 500 Movers

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Outperformers Sector Price 1D % Chg Volume
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd Consumer Discretionary 106 6.69%                767,969
Harris Corp Industrials 139 6.63%                446,004
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc Consumer Discretionary 72.4 6.45%                969,332
L3 Technologies Inc Industrials 178 6.45%                241,819
CVS Health Corp Health Care 63.8 5.42%            5,013,035
 
Underformers Sector Price 1D % Chg Volume
Molson Coors Brewing Co Consumer Staples 62.4 -7.54%                902,661
Clorox Co/The Consumer Staples 152 -7.24%                753,293
Garmin Ltd Consumer Discretionary 66.2 -6.62%            1,229,262
Sealed Air Corp Materials 36.6 -5.92%                173,456
Concho Resources Inc Energy 122 -5.73%                655,159
Morning BriefA quick GLOBAL RECAP TO START YOUR DAY
Morning BriefA quick GLOBAL RECAP TO START YOUR DAY