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It's Powell's fault!! Risk-off rules in wake of yesterday's Fed comments, US stocks lower midday

May 02, 2019

 

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Market data as of 12:15pm EST

US Market Snapshot

  • US stocks are lower midday as risk-appetite has been dampened with the latest Fed's pronouncements; the risk-off move has been broad today
  • The S&P 500 is currently down 0.57%, Nasdaq Composite is down 0.4%, and Russell 2000 is down 0.46%
  • The Federal Reserve made clear yesterday it has no plans to cut rates any time soon, dashing market expectations for a cut as its next move
  • Or maybe a cut? How Low Can They Go: New Statistical Measures of Inflation could move Fed to cut rates
  • Press reports are stating that the US and China could announce a final trade deal as soon as next Friday, US officials have not commented on that report, read more: US warships in Taiwan Straight can only mean one thing: US-China Trade Negotiations Resume this Week
  • Asia press is reporting trade talks may have hit an impasse
  • Our CIO was interviewed by Benzinga: A Q&A With The Co-Founder Of Quantamize
  • Oil is falling with WTI crude down 3.4%, higher than expected US inventories plus Russia cutting production less than it pledged; this despite the fact that oil exports from Iran are due to be cut off by US sanctions starting today
  • Non-farm productivity rose 3.6% q/q in April, well above the 2.2% expected
  • The very best US LARGE-CAPsMay's Plays: These US LARGE-CAP TOP PICKS are what your portfolio needs NOW!
  • Initial Jobless claims for the week ending April 27th was 230k, a bit above the 215k expected
  • All of our stocks ratings are updated for May: click here to look up any stock, click here to see all our Global Top Stock Ideas
  • What's up with FAANG results? FAANG Results for First Quarter: Part bite, part nibble
  • Real Estate (+0.3%), Utilities (+0.01%), and Financials (-0.04%) stocks are the top performers in the S&P 500 today
  • Materials (-0.85%), Telecom (-0.87%), and Energy (-1.16%) stocks are the worst performers in the S&P 500 today
  • Investor sentiment for US stocks is negative with the advance/decline ratio for the S&P 500 currently at 0.66x
  • 111 stocks in the S&P500 are at 4-week highs while 57 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 42 stocks in the S&P 500 are overbought while 17 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • 126 stocks in the Nasdaq Composite are at 4-week highs while 97 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 329 stocks in the Nasdaq Composite are overbought while 363 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • The VIX is currently moving up at 15.14 from yesterday's close of 14.8

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor rating and financials data.

Global Consumer Stocks Trending in the News

  • Aptiv (APTV) announced adjusted earnings guidance for the second quarter that came below the lowest analyst estimate, sending other auto suppliers lower alongside it. Aptiv expects adjusted EPS during the second quarter to come between $1.11 and $1.17, well below analyst forecasts that ranged between $1.23 and $1.51. Aptiv’s adjusted EPS during the first quarter of $1.05 came slightly above consensus expectations of $1.01. Aptiv is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Caesars Entertainment (CZR) reported first quarter revenue that beat expectations with earnings that trailed.  Caesars Entertainment reported first quarter revenue of $2.12 billion, ahead of $2.08 billion consensus.  Caesars posted a loss per share of 32 cents, well below the 17 cents expected.  Caesars Entertainment is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Unattractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas  
  • Church & Dwight (CHD) posted first quarter earnings that beat expectations.  Church & Dwight reported first quarter adjusted EPS of 70 cents, ahead of 64 cents expected.  Church & Dwight first quarter revenue of $1.04 billion matched consensus.  Church & Dwight provided second quarter guidance of ~52 cents, matching consensus.  Organic revenue growth of 3.5% is expected in the second quarter and for the full year.  Church & Dwight is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas  
  • Dunkin’ Brands (DNKN) reported first quarter earnings that beat consensus with guidance that is below.  Dunkin’ reported first quarter EPS of 67 cents, ahead of 62 cents consensus.  First quarter revenue of $319.1 million beat $312.6 consensus.  Dunkin Donuts same store sale beat while Baskin-Robbins trailed expectations.  Dunkin’ Brands is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas  
  • Hanesbrands (HBI) posted first quarter earnings and net sales that beat expectations.  Hanesbrands first quarter adjusted EPS of 27 cents beat 25 cents expectations.  First quarter net sales of $1.59 billion beat $1.53 billion consensus.  Hanesbrands provided EPS guidance of 43 cents to 45 cents while present consensus was 46 cents.  Net sales are expected to be $1.74 to $1.79 billion in the second quarter.  Hanesbrands is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas  
  • Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) reported first quarter earnings that beat consensus.  Intercontinental Exchange first quarter adjustable EPS of $0.92 came just above $0.90 consensus.   First quarter revenue of $1.27 billion matched consensus of $1.27 billion.  Intercontinental Exchange approved a $0.275 per share dividend for the second quarter.  Intercontinental Exchange sees second quarter data revenue of $550 million to $555 million.  Intercontinental Exchange is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Kellogg (K) reported first quarter earnings that beat consensus.  Kellogg reported first quarter EPS of $1.01, ahead of 95 cents expected.  Kellogg’s first quarter revenue of $3.52 billion, in line with $3.54 billion.  Recently announced divestures will cuts 2019 by 2-3%.  Kellogg said CFO Fareed Khan will leave July 1st.  Kellogg is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas  
  • Starbucks (SBUX) is recalling a coffee press it sold in its stores.  Starbucks is recalling about 263,000 Budum coffee presses it sold in its store in a voluntary recall due to it potentially breaking during use.  Starbucks informed the US Consumer Products Safety Commission.  The presses were sold from 2016 until this past January.  The cost of the recall could top $5 million for Starbucks if all presses are returned.  Starbucks is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas  
  • Tesla Inc. (TSLA) shares traded higher after the company announced plans to raise roughly $2 billion of capital through debt and stock offerings. Tesla filed on Thursday to sell $1.35 billion in convertible debt notes and $650 million in equity shares. Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities explained that, “We view this as a clear net positive for Tesla.” Tesla is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Wayfair (W) shares fell by double-digits after the online retailer reported a wider than expected loss during its first quarter. Wayfair observed a loss per share of $1.62 during the first quarter, slightly worse than consensus forecasts for a loss of $1.60/share. Loop Capital urged investors against selling Wayfair shares, explaining that higher expenses were the cause of the online retailer’s wider than expected loss. Wayfair is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.

Global Information Technology Stocks Trending in the News

  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) delivered first quarter earnings and revenue in line.  AMD first quarter revenue of $1.27 billion matched consensus of $1.26 billion, growing 8%.  Adjusted EPS of 6 cents came a bit ahead if 5 cents expected.  AMD gave second quarter revenue guidance of $1.47 billion to $1.57 billion.  AMD is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Apple (AAPL) reported fiscal second quarter earnings that beat consensus.  Apple first quarter EPS was $2.46, beating $2.36 consensus.  Apple saw revenue of $58 billion in the second quarter beating consensus of $57.49 billion.  Apple announced it would buy back $75 billion worth of stock.  Apple gave third quarter revenue guidance of $52.5 billion to $54.5 billion, well above consensus of $52.2 billion.  Apple said iPhone revenue dropped to $31.05 billion from $37.6 billion a year ago.  Apple is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • MSG Networks Inc. (MSGN) shares slid by double digits after the company reported a y/y drop in subscribers slightly under 4%. The decline in subscribers during the company’s fiscal third quarter was worse than expected, according to Evercore analyst David Joyce. MSG Network’s top-line managed to beat expectations while margins during the fiscal third quarter were mostly in line with forecasts. MSG Networks is rated “Top Buy” in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.

Global Industrials Stocks Trending in the News

  • Fluor Corp. (FLR) shares fell by the most intraday in nearly two decades after CEO David Seatron unexpectedly resigned following a surprising loss in the first quarter. Analysts had expected Fluor Corp. to report earnings of $0.52/share during the first quarter while the company actually generated a loss of $0.14/share. In addition to his former position as CEO, Seatron also stepped down from Chairman of Fluor’s board of directors. Fluor is rated “Top Short” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.

Global Financials Stocks Trending in the News

  • Apollo Global (APO) announced first quarter earnings that trailed consensus as said it will convert to a corporation.  Apollo reported distributable EPS of 50 cents, behind 57 cents expected.  Apollo reported $303 billion in asset under management with $24.9 billion in inflows.  Apollo announced it will convert to a corporation from a partnership, a move many of its peers have already done in the wake of tax law changes.  Apollo Global is rated “Attractive” in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas
  • CME Group (CME) reported first quarter results that came largely in line with consensus.  CME Group first quarter revenue of $1.18 billion matched consensus of $1.19 billion.  First quarter EPS of $1.62 came just above $1.60 consensus.   Total average rate per contract rose 2% to 71.3 cents.  CME Group is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • MetLife (MET) reported earnings and net income that beat expectations.  MetLife first quarter EPS of $1.48 beat consensus of $1.27.  First quarter net income of $1.35 billion beat $1.25 billion consensus.  Premiums and fees grew 2% in the quarter as its return on equity rose to 10.3% from 9% a year ago.  MetLife is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas
  • Metro Bank Plc (LSE: MTRO) shares plunged by more than 15% after the company disclosed that several business customers pulled their deposits from the British lender earlier in 2019. Metro Bank attributed, “adverse sentiment,” for the elevated withdrawal levels, which came as the company faced a regulatory probe and dealt with misclassification of mortgages earlier in the year. Metro Bank is rated “Unattractive” in our United Kingdom All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.

Global Commodities & Power Stocks Trending in the News

  • Dow Inc (DOW) reported revenue just above consensus.  Dow reported first quarter revenue of $10.77 billion, just ahead of consensus of $10.70 billion.  Dow posted operational ebitda of $1.92 billion.  Dow said it sees some “discrete headwinds” in the coming quarter.  Dow said it is focused on realizing costs savings through synergies with $125 million already realized and has $400 million to yet be realized.  Dow is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.

 

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US Treasuries

  • US 2-Year Treasury Notes are lower with yields up 3.23 basis points to 2.33%
  • US 5-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 4.51 basis points to 2.34%
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 4.69 basis points to 2.54%
  • The US Treasury 2s-5s Spread has widened 1.28 basis points to 0.01%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has widened 1.46 basis points to 0.21%
  • US Treasury 5s-10s Spread has widened 0.18 basis points to 0.2%

Currencies

  • EUR€ is currently down 0.188% against the USD$ to 1.1175
  • GBP£ is currently down 0.184% against the USD$ to 1.3026
  • CHF is currently little changed against the USD$ at 0.9814
  • JPY¥ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 111.47

Commodities

  • WTI Crude is currently down -3.95% to USD$61.09/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread up USD$1.43 to USD$9.42/bbl
  • Gold is currently down -0.47% to USD$1270.73/oz

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

S&P 500 Sector ETFs - Intraday

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor ETFs - Intraday

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

 

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S&P 500 Movers

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Outperformers Sector Price 1D % Chg Volume
Vulcan Materials Co Materials 100 4.65%                150,235
Equinix Inc Real Estate 383 4.58%                130,481
Under Armour Inc Consumer Discretionary 17.9 4.42%                700,418
Under Armour Inc Consumer Discretionary 19.8 4.40%            1,674,936
CH Robinson Worldwide Inc Industrials 85.3 4.19%                548,754
 
Underperformers Sector Price 1D % Chg Volume
Fluor Corp Industrials 36.4 -24.15%            1,129,120
Discovery Inc Communication Services 27.1 -6.35%                944,371
Apache Corp Energy 31.7 -6.05%                606,574
Xylem Inc/NY Industrials 68.8 -6.05%                204,294
Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc Industrials 197 -6.05%                  65,184
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