blog

Latest from the Quantamize Blog

Just Chillin' - Fed Happy to Chill Out and Make No Moves on Interest Rates, Minutes Show

May 22, 2019

We Crunch the Numbers, You Make the Trade.We Crunch the Numbers, You Make the Trade.
We Crunch the Numbers, You Make the Trade.We Crunch the Numbers, You Make the Trade.

 

  • The minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve FOMC meeting show that members, in general, are comfortable making no moves on interest rates for now
  • The minutes are from the latest meeting, published with a 3-week lag, as is normal practice
  • Members agree this present weak inflation readings are temporary; the weakening of core inflation from 2% in December to 1.6% in March will not last
  • Some members, though raised the possibility of inflation remaining below the 2% target, fearing the market may come to exepct lower inflation if they don't act
  • Fed Chairnan Jerome Powell after the last Fed meeting said there are one-off effects that are dampening inflation presently but he hedged himself saying, "we of course will be watching very carefully if that is the case."
  • A number of members think the risk that inflation will be weaker than presently expected has grown since the last meeting
  • A tight labor market was also cited as a point of focus for the Fed
  • Most Fed officials making public comments recently have endored Chairman Powell's go-slow approaching with the NY Fed President commenting today: Standing Firm: NY Fed President Sees no Need for Rate Hike as Goldilocks Economy Rolls On
  • Members agreed the concerns they had about the economy earlier in the year has receded since then

 

 

 

Global Top Stock IdeasTOP LONG & TOP SHORT STOCK IDEAS FOR GLOBAL MARKETSMONTHLY TOP IDEAS FROM OUR MULTI-FACTOR QUANTITATIVE MODELS
Global Top Stock IdeasTOP LONG & TOP SHORT STOCK IDEAS FOR GLOBAL MARKETSMONTHLY TOP IDEAS FROM OUR MULTI-FACTOR QUANTITATIVE MODELS