VIX up only 6.7% as equities break through key technical support
May 31, 2019
Options Market Commentary
Equities are in the red this afternoon, as they have been for much of May, after President Trump threatened Mexico with tariffs (5% set to go into effect on June 10th.) Currently, the S&P is -1.05%, the Russell is -1.25% and the Nasdaq is -1.25%. Bonds are stronger (TLT +.80%, US 10 year yield down to 2.17%) as this morning’s inflation and spending data printed mostly in line (Apr PCE Core 0.2% vs. 0.2% est.; Personal Spending 0.3% vs. 0.2% est.) Also worth noting, the latest manufacturing data out of China came in slightly below expectations (May PMI 49.4 vs. 49.9 est.). In single name news, shares of Uber are roughly flat this afternoon after posting a $1 billion loss in Q1 (Revenue of $3 billion, +20% Y/Y). Crude Oil can’t catch its breath (USO -2.75%) and is set to wrap up a month that saw the price of WTI Crude fall from the mid-60’s to mid-50’s. Utilities are outperforming this afternoon (XLU flat) while Retail and Regional Banks (XRT -1.65%; KRE -1.5%) lag the broader market. Volatilities are bid across the board with the VIX +7% to 18.54, VXN +3.5% to 22.40, and RVX 3.5% to 21.17
ETF 30D Volatility Changes
SPY: +6%
IWM: +5%
QQQ: +3%
Directional Options Strategies
Bullish Option Strategies
CSX Seller 2,200 Jun 72 – 71 put spreads (opening, collects $.20, ref. 73.86)
MU Buyer 47,000 Jun 35 – 37 call spreads (untied, paid $.41 to open, ref. 32.98)
EMR Seller 4,000 Jan 55 puts to Buy 4,000 Jan 65 – 75 call spreads (collects $.45 to open, ref. 60.86)
GE 65,000 Jun 19 puts trade (appears sold to close, $.19, ref. 9.43)
MPC Buyer 25,000 Oct 52.5 – 57.5 call spreads (paid $.95, appears to roll down, ref. 45.81)
WPX Buyer 10,000 Aug 12 – 14 1x2 call spreads (paid $.19, ref. 10.94)
Bearish Option Strategies
TGT 4,100 Jun 80 puts trade (paid b/w $1.95 and $1.98, ref. 79.08)
BBBY Buyer 4,300 Jun 13 puts (paid $1.02 to open, ref. 12.62)
AVYA Seller 15,000 Aug 17.5 calls to Buy 15,000 Aug 10 puts tied to stock (paid $.60, ref. 12.02)
XOM Seller 8,200 Aug 77.5 – 82.5 call spreads (appears to roll write down, collects $.50, ref. 71.53)
X 6,500 Nov 11 puts trade vs. 6,500 Jan 9 puts (appears to roll out and down, $.52, ref. 11.99)
IBM 4,800 Jul 145 – Aug 140 call spreads trade (appears to roll write out and down, $1.01, ref. 127.40)
GEL 6,000 Dec 17.5 puts trade (appears bought to open, $.60, ref. 22.12)
CZR Buyer 45,000 Jun 8.5 puts (paid $.25 to open, ref. 8.94)
Macro Options Strategies
Bullish Option Strategies
HYG Buyer 153,000 Jun 28th 86.5 calls (paid $.10 to open, ref. 85.13)
HYG Seller 25,000 Aug 80 puts (collects $.35, ref. 85.24)
EWU Seller 7,000 July 31 puts tied to stock (appears sold to close, $.73, ref. 31.65)
FXI Buyer 40,000 Jul 42 – 44 call spreads (untied, paid $.33, ref. 40.15)
QQQ Seller 15,000 Jun 173 – 171 put spreads (appears to monetize, collects $.68, ref. 174.24)
SLV 3,800 Oct 14 calls trade (appears bought, $.44, more than 9,000 trade total, ref. 13.68)
Bearish Option Strategies
SPY 15,000 Aug 260 – 250 put spreads trade tied to stock ($1.62, ref. 276.02)
EFA Seller 10,000 May 31st 63 – 59 put spreads to Buy 10,000 Jul 58 – 54 put spreads (paid $.13 to roll out and down, ref. 63.11)
OIH Seller 7,500 Jun 7th 14 puts and 7,500 Jun 14 puts to Buy 10,000 Jun 13.5 puts and 5,000 Jun 13 puts (collects 380,000 on the package, ref. 13.18)
USO 10,000 Jul 11.5 – 11 put spreads trade ($.18, ref. 11.52)
QQQ 5,800 Jun 176 – 161 put spreads trade vs. 5,800 Jul 5th 171 – 155 put spreads (appears to monetize, roll out and down, $.82, ref. 174.72)
GLD 5,000 Jun 7th 122.5 puts trade (appears bought to open, $.36, ref. 123.11)
VIX Buyer 10,000 Jun 19 – 25 call spreads (paid $1.03, ref. 18.45 (Jun))
Finance Trades Options Strategies
JCI 13,000 Jun 14th 45 RevCons trade (ref. 38.61)
Upcoming Earnings
Underlying |
Earnings Date |
Imp Move |
Historical Move |
Cheap vs Expensive |
Quantamize Rating |
Average Daily Vega |
BIG |
5/31/2019 |
9.3 |
9.5 |
-2.7% |
C |
18707 |
BOX |
6/3/2019 |
9.6 |
9.2 |
3.8% |
C |
23722 |
COUP |
6/3/2019 |
8.7 |
6.5 |
34.0% |
C |
16571 |
AMBA |
6/4/2019 |
10.1 |
11.1 |
-9.2% |
F |
6188 |
CRM |
6/4/2019 |
5.3 |
3.0 |
77.5% |
C |
437819 |
GME |
6/4/2019 |
8.8 |
6.0 |
46.8% |
D |
7329 |
HQY |
6/4/2019 |
8.1 |
5.8 |
40.1% |
B |
1725 |
KHC |
6/4/2019 |
5.7 |
8.1 |
-29.6% |
F |
48964 |
LE |
6/4/2019 |
11.1 |
13.7 |
-19.4% |
D |
8928 |
NAV |
6/4/2019 |
6.4 |
6.1 |
5.2% |
A |
1578 |
TIF |
6/4/2019 |
6.1 |
6.9 |
-11.6% |
C |
26536 |
AEO |
6/5/2019 |
8.0 |
5.2 |
54.5% |
D |
2310 |
CLDR |
6/5/2019 |
12.3 |
17.2 |
-28.7% |
C |
4737 |
CPB |
6/5/2019 |
6.7 |
6.6 |
2.1% |
B |
5487 |
FIVE |
6/5/2019 |
7.6 |
7.6 |
0.3% |
B |
27643 |
GIII |
6/5/2019 |
9.9 |
11.2 |
-11.1% |
C |
4747 |
MDB |
6/5/2019 |
11.8 |
12.5 |
-5.7% |
F |
25631 |
SFIX |
6/5/2019 |
14.7 |
23.5 |
-37.2% |
D |
9369 |
SMAR |
6/5/2019 |
10.1 |
4.3 |
132.1% |
D |
1800 |
CIEN |
6/6/2019 |
8.6 |
8.5 |
1.5% |
C |
7012 |
DOCU |
6/6/2019 |
5.8 |
5.1 |
12.2% |
C |
21068 |
MTN |
6/6/2019 |
5.6 |
6.2 |
-9.8% |
C |
12989 |
OLLI |
6/6/2019 |
7.1 |
4.4 |
63.4% |
C |
4474 |
PYX |
6/6/2019 |
14.9 |
15.7 |
-5.1% |
D |
39565 |
SJM |
6/6/2019 |
5.5 |
5.6 |
-2.6% |
B |
11199 |
THO |
6/10/2019 |
8.4 |
6.8 |
22.6% |
D |
11550 |
CASY |
6/11/2019 |
5.5 |
4.5 |
22.3% |
D |
6022 |
HRB |
6/11/2019 |
7.3 |
7.2 |
1.7% |
C |
2320 |
RH |
6/11/2019 |
15.9 |
19.9 |
-20.0% |
B |
23491 |
LULU |
6/12/2019 |
9.7 |
12.5 |
-22.4% |
A |
272146 |
AVGO |
6/13/2019 |
3.9 |
4.3 |
-10.2% |
F |
303319 |
FNSR |
6/13/2019 |
2.5 |
4.4 |
-42.2% |
F |
1514 |
JBL |
6/13/2019 |
5.9 |
5.4 |
9.4% |
C |
1845 |
MPAA |
6/13/2019 |
9.0 |
5.0 |
81.0% |
D |
7526 |
ADBE |
6/18/2019 |
4.6 |
3.6 |
27.7% |
C |
353447 |
AOBC |
6/19/2019 |
10.0 |
15.3 |
-34.4% |
F |
2217 |
ORCL |
6/19/2019 |
5.2 |
4.1 |
27.9% |
B |
53054 |
SCS |
6/19/2019 |
8.3 |
8.7 |
-4.8% |
C |
1928 |
WGO |
6/19/2019 |
10.0 |
6.9 |
44.7% |
C |
1928 |
DRI |
6/20/2019 |
4.9 |
6.3 |
-21.9% |
A |
19545 |
KR |
6/20/2019 |
8.3 |
8.4 |
-0.4% |
D |
27547 |
RHT |
6/20/2019 |
2.0 |
4.9 |
-59.5% |
D |
166977 |
Volatility Standouts
Underlying |
2M Volatility vs Forecast |
Q Rating |
2M IV Change |
IV 2M Percentile |
Average Daily Vega |
CTXS |
67.84% |
B |
-8.85% |
63.49 |
22716 |
ELAN |
59.81% |
A |
0.87% |
25.31 |
101651 |
ASH |
58.36% |
C |
-6.30% |
99.21 |
37846 |
SNBR |
56.89% |
C |
1.14% |
65.48 |
245 |
AVYA |
54.04% |
C |
-5.48% |
89.68 |
405 |
TLYS |
53.64% |
D |
-29.78% |
86.90 |
265 |
ZNGA |
52.67% |
F |
11.06% |
31.35 |
4253 |
BREW |
51.73% |
F |
1.68% |
74.60 |
277 |
SRPT |
5.01E-01 |
C |
-2.25% |
92.06 |
24519 |
IFF |
47.42% |
D |
0.18% |
35.71 |
413 |
CARS |
47.34% |
B |
-5.12% |
66.27 |
6394 |
WING |
47.32% |
C |
-1.00% |
19.44 |
6171 |
XONE |
46.17% |
F |
-1.67% |
36.11 |
535 |
XRAY |
46.08% |
D |
-2.52% |
7.94 |
1314 |
EGAN |
44.18% |
D |
-1.33% |
16.67 |
581 |
MAT |
43.72% |
D |
0.68% |
59.13 |
24391 |
FLR |
43.47% |
F |
-0.55% |
86.11 |
47598 |
FLO |
43.41% |
B |
-2.94% |
5.56 |
315 |
UPWK |
42.57% |
F |
-5.36% |
17.60 |
171 |
ICE |
41.64% |
A |
2.11% |
56.75 |
7390 |
MSG |
41.56% |
B |
-0.73% |
38.89 |
767 |
GCI |
41.42% |
C |
18.97% |
87.70 |
693 |
EXPE |
41.06% |
B |
-3.59% |
26.98 |
135245 |
WLH |
40.72% |
D |
-1.63% |
22.22 |
270 |
Underlying |
2M Volatility vs Forecast |
Q Rating |
2M IV Change |
IV 2M Percentile |
Average Daily Vega |
RHT |
-65.69% |
D |
0.00% |
16.27 |
166977 |
ZAYO |
-62.25% |
C |
0.00% |
0.40 |
8248 |
APC |
-6.14E-01 |
D |
-5.46% |
6.75 |
51923 |
TSS |
-48.72% |
B |
-3.92% |
69.44 |
1568 |
QCOM |
-42.85% |
D |
-4.00% |
96.83 |
481831 |
OZK |
-42.75% |
D |
-2.19% |
76.59 |
692 |
ARRY |
-40.12% |
F |
-1.29% |
2.38 |
10208 |
SBGI |
-35.25% |
C |
-0.82% |
75.79 |
693 |
KEYS |
-33.01% |
A |
-23.88% |
93.25 |
10593 |
IPHI |
-30.91% |
D |
-1.17% |
49.21 |
587 |
SEAS |
-29.61% |
C |
-0.92% |
24.60 |
6045 |
CTRL |
-28.64% |
D |
0.00% |
4.37 |
559 |
SKX |
-25.52% |
C |
2.05% |
58.33 |
9631 |
VRNT |
-25.47% |
A |
-20.55% |
91.67 |
990 |
BLMN |
-25.18% |
C |
-13.12% |
55.56 |
4753 |
MLNX |
-24.81% |
C |
0.00% |
19.44 |
38987 |
CELG |
-24.44% |
B |
2.11% |
13.10 |
344134 |
VERI |
-23.10% |
F |
-5.74% |
18.25 |
187 |
MAXR |
-22.42% |
F |
0.72% |
77.31 |
356 |
DOMO |
-21.79% |
F |
-0.26% |
58.80 |
116 |
SFIX |
-21.38% |
D |
-0.48% |
65.08 |
9369 |
BPR |
-20.70% |
F |
0.00% |
27.84 |
1503 |
PEN |
-19.24% |
D |
-3.28% |
14.68 |
7158 |
LITE |
-19.06% |
D |
-1.76% |
66.27 |
32025 |