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Equities Rally on China Trade Talk

Jul 31, 2018

Commentary: Equities are rallying today on what appears to be positive talk on China trade with the S&P +.65%, the Russell +1.33% and the Nasdaq +.9%. The rally is fairly broad-based but is being led by Industrials +2.1%, Real Estate +2% and Healthcare +1%. Bonds are rallying with TLT +.6%. GLD is +.4%. Energy is mixed with WTI crude +1.5%, however the energy ETFs rallying with stocks, XOP +.4% and XLE +.36%. Volatilities are moving lower with VIX -7%, VXN -5% to 19.48, and RVX -6% to 16.48.

 

 

ETF 30d volatility changes

SPY:        -7%

IWM:      -6%

QQQ:      -4%

 

Directional:

Bullish

EEM Buyer 34,839 Sep 47 calls (ref. 44.64)

AAL Buyer 9,089 Jan 46 calls (ref. 39.58)

KO 10,000 Jan 47 – 48 call spreads trade (ref. 46.43)

LLY 9,700 Sep 100 calls trade (ref. 98.65)

PAGS Seller 12,500 Aug 25 calls to Buy 12,500 Nov 25 calls (ref. 27.52)

PBR 20,000 Oct 12 – Jan 12 call spreads trade (ref. 11.62)

Bearish

C 5,000 Aug 68 puts trade

INTC Seller 30,000 Jan 50 calls (likely closing, ref. 47.96)

JPM Seller 10,018 Oct 125 calls (ref. 115.96)

AMD Seller 47,500 Jan 20 calls to Buy 23,750 Jan 25 calls (reduces and rolls up, ref. 19.03)

F Buyer 6,600 Jun19 8 puts (ref. 10.08)

QCOM Buyer 10,000 Sep 7th 55 – 60 – 65 put flys (ref. 63.89)

BAH Buyer 7,500 Dec 45 puts (ref. 45.91)

EWZ Buyer 20,000 Aug 32 puts (ref. 36.07)

MMM Seller 10,000 Oct 230 calls (ref. 210.78)

DWDP Seller 10,000 Sep 72.5 calls (ref. 68.69)

 

Earnings Plays:

Bullish

CZR Buyer 5,000 Sep 12 call trade (Earnings 8/1, ref. 11.12)

HBI Buyer 19,800 Aug 23 calls (Earnings 8/1, ref. 22.03)

Bearish

 

 

 

Macro:

Bullish

FXI Seller 14,000 Oct 40 puts (ref. 43.36)

EEM Buyer 56,000 Sep 46.5 – 47 call stupids (likely closing, ref. 44.65)

GLD Buyer 7,454 Sep 123 calls (ref. 115.75)

EWZ 20,000 Oct – Jan 38 call spreads trade (ref. 36.11)

Bearish

XLF Seller 55,000 Sep 29 calls to Buy 55,000 Sep 30 calls (likely closing, ref. 28.11)

VIX Seller 50,000 Aug 22nd 47.5 calls to Buy 50,000 Dec 19th 47.5 calls (rolls out, ref. 16.10)

 

 

Financing Trades:

AABA 20,000 Aug 100 RC trade (ref. 73.02)

XLF Buyer 10,000 Sep 30 RC trade (ref. 27.99)

 

Upcoming Earnings:

 

ADSW

8/1/2018

4.2

3.7

13.5%

C

253

AEGN

8/1/2018

7.2

6.5

11.3%

F

 

AFG

8/1/2018

2.7

3.3

-18.7%

B

991

AKRX

8/1/2018

5.5

5.4

1.8%

D

15292

ALG

8/1/2018

6.3

3.3

93.9%

B

 

ALL

8/1/2018

2.8

3.8

-25.6%

B

11633

AMC

8/1/2018

7.3

2.4

205.6%

C

3985

AMOT

8/1/2018

8.5

9.8

-13.1%

D

 

AN

8/1/2018

5.6

4.8

18.7%

C

12258

APA

8/1/2018

3.4

4.7

-27.4%

F

32755

APTI

8/1/2018

8.6

7.5

13.8%

F

406

AR

8/1/2018

3.1

3.4

-8.3%

F

1670

ARCC

8/1/2018

1.4

1.2

11.2%

C

2138

ARII

8/1/2018

6.0

3.9

 

 

1363

ARRS

8/1/2018

6.3

6.1

4.2%

B

216

AWK

8/1/2018

0.9

1.5

-37.1%

C

1008

BCOR

8/1/2018

8.9

10.6

-16.3%

B

699

BDC

8/1/2018

7.7

5.2

49.4%

C

439

BG

8/1/2018

4.0

5.5

-28.0%

C

10944

BLUE

8/1/2018

 

5.2

-100.0%

D

34832

BPMC

8/1/2018

6.1

4.8

26.6%

D

1886

CECO

8/1/2018

11.5

10.2

13.0%

B

 

CENTA

8/1/2018

6.9

7.7

-10.3%

C

 

CENX

8/1/2018

7.2

7.7

-6.2%

D

1771

CF

8/1/2018

4.5

5.0

-9.8%

C

15641

CHDN

8/1/2018

4.1

2.9

41.8%

B

2118

CHEF

8/1/2018

10.1

13.7

-26.4%

C

722

CHK

8/1/2018

7.6

7.1

7.7%

F

 

CLH

8/1/2018

5.4

3.2

67.5%

C

538

CLVS

8/1/2018

5.1

5.6

-7.9%

D

4527

CONE

8/1/2018

2.1

1.1

92.0%

D

2654

CPLA

8/1/2018

8.9

10.4

-14.0%

B

489

CRUS

8/1/2018

7.8

5.7

35.2%

D

5536

CSGS

8/1/2018

7.4

7.3

1.2%

B

 

CXO

8/1/2018

3.1

3.4

-7.0%

D

23604

CZR

8/1/2018

6.1

2.0

210.1%

D

42004

D

8/1/2018

1.4

1.7

-17.6%

C

39021

DBD

8/1/2018

9.9

6.2

58.4%

C

730

DIN

8/1/2018

9.3

6.1

53.3%

A

5149

DMRC

8/1/2018

8.5

5.4

58.1%

C

 

DVA

8/1/2018

4.2

4.4

-4.6%

B

12429

DXCM

8/1/2018

10.6

7.1

50.8%

F

6548

EGL

8/1/2018

15.3

8.9

72.5%

F

 

EGOV

8/1/2018

6.6

5.7

14.1%

C

 

ENR

8/1/2018

5.1

5.0

2.3%

C

2576

EPD

8/1/2018

1.6

1.8

-11.6%

C

29426

ESIO

8/1/2018

10.7

12.9

-17.2%

A

854

ESRX

8/1/2018

3.3

3.1

5.1%

B

65366

ESS

8/1/2018

1.5

1.6

-10.8%

D

4093

ETR

8/1/2018

1.5

1.4

4.0%

C

2725

EXAS

8/1/2018

10.6

12.7

-16.4%

F

31503

EXEL

8/1/2018

5.1

7.4

-31.3%

C

3627

FEYE

8/1/2018

9.6

10.3

-6.6%

D

12761

FIT

8/1/2018

13.8

13.0

5.8%

D

5625

FLOW

8/1/2018

3.6

5.5

-34.0%

C

 

FMC

8/1/2018

3.2

5.1

-36.8%

B

7422

FNJN

8/1/2018

14.3

8.3

72.2%

C

 

FORM

8/1/2018

10.0

9.7

3.0%

C

500

FOXF

8/1/2018

5.5

4.3

28.8%

A

 

FRT

8/1/2018

 

1.5

-100.0%

D

1205

FTNT

8/1/2018

6.9

5.8

19.2%

A

9769

FUN

8/1/2018

2.0

2.3

-11.5%

C

894

GDI

8/1/2018

6.1

4.8

27.5%

D

782

GFF

8/1/2018

3.7

6.2

-40.7%

D

 

GLPI

8/1/2018

2.1

1.8

16.8%

B

4400

GMED

8/1/2018

3.2

5.0

-36.2%

B

752

GNRC

8/1/2018

5.4

4.8

12.7%

B

926

GPOR

8/1/2018

6.8

7.0

-1.9%

F

1296

GTES

8/1/2018

4.4

1.9

132.8%

D

 

HABT

8/1/2018

8.7

11.1

-21.6%

C

416

HBI

8/1/2018

8.9

7.5

19.3%

D

16989

HCC

8/1/2018

5.8

6.4

-9.4%

D

576

HGV

8/1/2018

4.3

2.2

97.9%

A

275

HI

8/1/2018

7.6

3.9

93.3%

C

 

HIVE

8/1/2018

17.6

8.8

100.9%

C

 

HLF

8/1/2018

6.6

5.4

22.4%

C

9522

HUBG

8/1/2018

6.3

6.6

-4.1%

B

568

HUBS

8/1/2018

7.7

4.5

73.0%

D

8239

HUM

8/1/2018

2.9

2.6

12.1%

A

38999

IDXX

8/1/2018

6.5

6.1

5.3%

A

7148

IMKTA

8/1/2018

5.8

6.1

-4.5%

C

 

IT

8/1/2018

4.1

3.9

4.5%

C

1774

KBAL

8/1/2018

11.4

3.3

242.0%

C

 

KE

8/1/2018

4.7

3.8

25.2%

B

 

KEYW

8/1/2018

8.7

11.1

-21.8%

F

462

KFRC

8/1/2018

6.9

7.9

-11.8%

C

 

LEXEA

8/1/2018

 

2.9

-100.0%

D

 

LFUS

8/1/2018

6.4

7.3

-11.9%

B

250

LNC

8/1/2018

1.7

2.4

-27.8%

C

8194

LPI

8/1/2018

6.5

8.1

-20.3%

F

348

LPSN

8/1/2018

11.0

12.2

-9.7%

D

446

LSI

8/1/2018

1.9

1.7

12.7%

C

2919

MAA

8/1/2018

1.5

2.3

-33.3%

B

2195

MAC

8/1/2018

3.3

1.3

146.8%

D

2801

MANT

8/1/2018

7.2

6.4

12.8%

B

 

MASI

8/1/2018

5.7

5.6

1.2%

C

580

MDC

8/1/2018

4.4

5.5

-19.9%

C

745

MEET

8/1/2018

13.8

17.1

-19.4%

D

 

MET

8/1/2018

3.4

3.1

12.4%

B

47404

MIC

8/1/2018

5.1

7.0

-26.7%

B

5367

MOD

8/1/2018

7.2

7.2

-0.4%

D

 

MRC

8/1/2018

4.0

3.8

5.6%

C

 

MRO

8/1/2018

4.2

3.8

10.7%

D

29141

MTDR

8/1/2018

 

3.5

-100.0%

D

2464

MTOR

8/1/2018

7.3

6.3

15.6%

B

888

MUSA

8/1/2018

3.5

4.4

-20.3%

D

842

MYRG

8/1/2018

8.9

11.2

-20.5%

C

 

NHTC

8/1/2018

5.9

3.1

93.0%

C

626

NI

8/1/2018

1.5

1.8

-16.3%

C

569

NLY

8/1/2018