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Global Stocks Continue To Trade Up Following US President Trump’s Tweet Yesterday That the US & Mexico Have Agreed to New NAFTA Update

Aug 28, 2018

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US Stocks

  • Global stocks are trading up this AM following US President Trump’s tweet yesterday that US and Mexico have agreed to a new “NAFTA” deal. Canada is not yet part of the deal, and Congress must approve any agreement 
  • US stocks index futures are pointing to a positive open in NY with the Dow Jones minis +0.10%, S&P500 minis +0.10% and Nasdaq 100 minis +0.20% 
  • Nuveen’s chief strategist Robert Doll is warning investors will soon have to deal with peak profitability as rising wage pressure and higher interest rates will be a drag on corporate profitability 
  • While European stocks are underperforming US stocks, JP Morgan strategists continue to favor US stocks over European stocks until Italian political risk are addressed.  US stocks are trading at discount on a NTM P/E basis to European stocks according to JP Morgan. 
  • According State Street, the parent company of SPY, investors added USD$2.26bn in assets to SPY bringing total assets in the ETF to USD$277bn.  For the year, SPY has experienced net outflows of USD$7.51bn. 
  • The VIX is little changed this morning and is currently at 12 after closing at 12.16 yesterday
  • EEM December 2018 Calls, American Airlines (AAL) October 19 OTM Puts and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) August 31 OTM Calls are the most heavily traded options contracts in the US pre-market 
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 0.55 basis points to 2.8514%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.25 basis points to 0.2%
  • WTI Crude is currently down -1.36% to USD$68.87/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread up USD$1.76 to USD$7.12/bbl
  • Gold is currently little changed 0.14% to USD$1213.04/oz

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor score and financial data.

  • Agricultural Bank of China (SEHK:1288) reported F1H2018 net income of ¥115.8bn, representing a 6.6% Y/Y increase. Against expectations, the company failed to issue a dividend. Shares of Agricultural Bank of China fell 0.26% to HKD$3.80 today. Agricultural Bank of China is unrated in our Global Top Picks.
  • Aspen Insurance (AHL) will be acquired by private equity group Apollo Management for US$42.75 per shares.  Apollo is offering a 6.6% premium to yesterday’s close.
  • Bank of China (SEHK:3988) reported 1H18 net income of 176.7bn yuan and EPS of 37 RMB cents.  The coverage ratio for non-performing loans 1H18 was 164.8% while the net income margin was 1.88%.  Bank of China is rated ‘neutral’ in our China All-Cap Global Top Picks
  • Best Buy (BBY) reported F2Q2019 EPS that beat the consensus ($0.91 vs $0.82), and comparable sales growth that was also more robust than projected (+6.2% vs +4.1% anticipated). However, the company provided F3Q2019 EPS guidance that missed expectations ($0.79 to $0.84 vs $0.91). Best Buy stock is down 6.32% to $76.50 pre-market. Best Buy is rated as ‘Neutral’ in both of our US Large-Cap and US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Picks.
  • Continental (CON GR) was downgraded to neutral at Oddo BHF with its price target lowered to 180 euros.  This follows FY18 that was cut with its most recent results report.  Continental is rated ‘Unattractive’ in our European All-Cap Global Top Picks.
  • Faurecia (EO FP) rose over 4% as it was upgraded at Kepler Cheuvreux with its price target cut to 65 euros.  Better organic sales, better cash flow generation and an improved balance sheet were cited as reasons for the upgrade.  Faurecia is rated ‘neutral’ in our European All-Cap Global Top Picks.
  • Google (GOOGL) was accused by President Trump of printing only negative stories about him in display results.  Commenting on this situation Trump said it is “a very serious situation” that “will be addressed”.
  • Shenzhou International (2313 HK) rose over 8% after it gave bullish guidance for 2H18 saying it expected volume growth of 10-15% until 2020.  Shares were down the previous day after reporting 1H18 results in line.
  • Tencent (700 HK) is presently gauging investor demand for its planned IPO of Meituan Dianping, its restaurant and delivery unit, and Bloomberg reports it could raise more than US$4bn.  Tencent is rated ‘Top Buy’ in our China All-Cap Global Top Picks.
  • Tiffany (TIF) reported 2Q sales growth of 8% with consensus for 5.6% growth while EPS of US$1.17 compared to US$1.01 expected.  Tiffany also increased guidance for FY18 EPS to US$4.65-4.80 up from US$4.50-4.70. Shares of Tiffany are up 3.91% pore-market to $134.85. Tiffany is rated ‘Unattractive’ in our US Large-Cap Global Top Picks and ‘Top Buy’ in our US Consumer Discretionary Global top Picks.
  • Toyota (7203 HK) is investing an additional US$500mm in Uber as it seeks to catch other carmakers efforts.  As part of the deal Toyota will manufacture Siena minivans with Uber software installed.  Toyota is rated ‘Top Buy’ in our Japan All-Cap Global Top Picks.
     

European Stocks

  • European stocks are broadly higher as export-sensitive stocks are pushing European indices higher following news of the US-Mexico trade agreement 
  • Basic Resources (+1.7%), Automobiles & Parts (+1.29%), and Personal & Household Goods (+0.51%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Italian stocks are down on country-specific political risks ahead of the Italian parliamentary review of state concessions and regulation for utilities in September 
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 1.65x
  • 87 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 12 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 37 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 8 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is little changed this morning and is currently at 13.19 after closing at 13.11 yesterday
  • EUR€ is currently up +0.171% against the USD$ to 1.1698
  • GBP£ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.2895
  • CHF is currently up +0.313% against the USD$ to 1.024
  • German 10-Year Bunds are higher with yields down -0.5 basis points to 0.371%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are lower with yields up 16.5 basis points to 1.443%

Asian Stocks

  • Asian stocks closed up for the third straight day after news the US and Mexco have agreed on a free trade agreement 
  • The Nikkei 225 finished up +0.06%, the Hang Seng ended up +0.28%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise up +0.44%, and the CSI 300 was -0.19%
  • Marine Transportation (+2.3%), Rubber Products (+1.32%), and Transportation Equipment (+1.04%) stocks were the top performers among Japanese stocks today
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 1.45x
  • 24 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 1 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 13 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 3 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 1.63x
  • 7 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 1 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 0 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 0 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are lower with yields up 0.1 basis points to 0.098%
  • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.1 basis points to 0.21%
  • JPY¥ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 111.07

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Stock Sentiment

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Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume
 
Name 7 Day News Volume 7 Day Average News Buzz 1M EPS Net Revisions 3M EPS Net Revisions 1M EPS % CHG 3M EPS % CHG
Alphabet Inc 2535 9.14 -3 -25 0.07% 3.95%
Netflix Inc 939 8.57 -3 -25 -2.13% 1.70%
Microsoft Corp 885 7.57 2 25 0.13% 6.22%
Morgan Stanley 819 8.86 1 4 0.00% -0.14%
Wells Fargo & Co 722 9.86 -4 -10 -1.65% -0.79%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

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Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz
Name 7 Day News Volume 7 Day Average News Buzz 1M EPS Net Revisions 3M EPS Net Revisions 1M EPS % CHG 3M EPS % CHG
Texas Instruments Inc 40 10.00 18 20 -0.04% 4.33%
Wells Fargo & Co 722 9.86 -4 -10 -1.65% -0.79%
Starbucks Corp 212 9.29 -11 -23 0.19% -1.76%
International Business Machines Corp 272 9.14 -1 0 -0.77% 1.27%
ConocoPhillips 199 9.14 3 5 3.85% 15.79%
 

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

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ETF 30D IV 30D IV Percentile 90D IV 90D IV Percentile 90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV Percentile 30D IV-20D HV 30D IV-20D HV Percentile 90D IV-60D HV 90D IV-60D HV Percentile
SPY 8.72 40.67% 10.68 44.05% 1.22 61.51% 1.75 69.84% 2.84 68.65%
QQQ 12.88 36.11% 14.61 41.07% 1.13 72.62% 3.73 79.76% 1.85 52.18%
IWM 12.17 34.92% 12.66 7.34% 1.04 25.4% 2.8 66.27% 1.78 39.68%
FEZ 12.69 53.97% 13.93 59.92% 1.1 51.39% -4.85 9.72% -0.7 30.56%
EEM 17.33 68.25% 17.89 66.27% 1.03 35.91% -3.08 11.51% -0.23 35.32%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

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WINNERS TICKER SECTOR INDUSTRY 1 DAY RETURN 5 DAY RETURN YTD
LIGAND PHARMACEUTICAL INC LGND Health Care Biotechnology 2.22% 7.01% 61.71%
BERRY GLOBAL GROUP INC BERY Materials Containers & Packaging 2.03% 2.58% -23.01%
BROADCOM INC AVGO Information Technology Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment 1.88% 2.98% -21.24%
PG&E CORP PCG Utilities Electric Utilities 1.85% -2.65% -2.0%
RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL CORP RJF Financials Capital Markets 1.81% 1.63% 5.07%

 

LOSERS TICKER SECTOR INDUSTRY 1 DAY RETURN 5 DAY RETURN YTD
SYSCO CORP SYY Consumer Staples Food & Staples Retailing -1.65% -0.85% 22.57%
CBOE GLOBAL MARKETS INC CBOE Financials Capital Markets -1.44% 2.36% -18.85%
MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE VAC Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure -1.19% 0.06% -9.37%
DUKE ENERGY CORP DUK Utilities Electric Utilities -1.01% -1.5% 0.26%
SERVICEMASTER GLOBAL HLDGS SERV Consumer Discretionary Diversified Consumer Services -1.0% -2.16% 16.15%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

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WINNERS TICKER SECTOR INDUSTRY 1 DAY RETURN 5 DAY RETURN YTD
FOSSIL GROUP INC FOSL Consumer Discretionary Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods -9.89% -2.59% 102.26%
BLOOM ENERGY CORP-REDH BE Industrials Electrical Equipment -7.45% 24.66% 13.77%
PENNEY (J C) CO JCP Consumer Discretionary Multiline Retail -6.2% 2.95% -71.04%
TENABLE HOLDINGS INC TENB Information Technology Software -5.58% -0.88% 4.71%
HERON THERAPEUTICS INC HRTX Health Care Biotechnology -2.06% 0.65% 73.16%

 

LOSERS TICKER SECTOR INDUSTRY 1 DAY RETURN 5 DAY RETURN YTD
TANDEM DIABETES CARE INC TNDM Health Care Health Care Equipment & Supplies 7.6% 14.09% 279.11%
IMMUNOMEDICS INC IMMU Health Care Biotechnology 5.63% 10.13% 39.24%
ESPERION THERAPEUTICS INC ESPR Health Care Biotechnology 4.64% 7.89% -25.74%
CARVANA CO CVNA Consumer Discretionary Specialty Retail 3.77% 6.39% 122.6%
INSULET CORP PODD Health Care Health Care Equipment & Supplies 3.74% 8.8% 34.73%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptos

  • Ant Financial, the payments affiliate of Alibaba, is launching a blockchain-as-a-service platform to help the municipal government of the Chinese city of Wuchang to track the production process of rice.  The goal is to create a public distributed ledger that will record unique information for each package so that fake products can be easily indentified.  
  • An op-ed on CoinDesk by Michal Casey, chairman of the advisory board and a senior advisor for blockchain research at MIT’s Digital Currency Initiative, discusses “stablecoin” projects at Central Banks.  Casey believes the entry of Central Banks into the digital currency ecosystem increase competition, a healthy development, for cryptos and may help address price volatility across markets.  
  • Singapore-based crypto exchange Huobi has announced that Huobi Chairman Li Lin made a USD$77mm investment into Hong Kong-listed Pantronics Holdings.  After the acquisition, Li now own ~73.73% of Pantronics. Crypto commentators are suggesting the Pantronics acquisition will be a vehicle for Huobi to go public via a reverse takeover. 

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Events Calendar

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Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
DSW Inc. DSW 8/28/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Discretionary: C
Tiffany & Co. TIF 8/28/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: B
Box, Inc. BOX 8/28/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F, US Information Technology: F
H&R Block, Inc. HRB 8/28/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: C
MuleSoft, Inc. MULE 8/28/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F, US Information Technology: F
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. AEO 8/28/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Discretionary: B
Dycom Industries, Inc. DY 8/28/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Industrials: D
Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc. DKS 8/28/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: D
Brown-Forman Corporation BF.B 8/29/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Consumer Staples: C
Guess?, Inc. GES 8/29/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Consumer Discretionary: B
salesforce.com, inc. CRM 8/29/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Information Technology: C
PVH Corp. PVH 8/29/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Consumer Discretionary: B
The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. HAIN 8/29/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Staples: D
Dollar Tree, Inc. DLTR 8/29/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Consumer Discretionary: B

Source: S&P Capital IQ