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Global Stocks Red Across the Board with Worries about Trade Conflict and Emerging Markets Contagion slamming investor sentiment

Sep 05, 2018

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US Stocks

  • Global stocks are negative across the board this AM with continued worries about trade conflict and fears of a contagion effect spreading from economic crises in Argentina and Turkey plus 
  • US stocks index futures are pointing to a negative open in NY with the Dow Jones minis -0.34%, S&P500 minis –0.26% and Nasdaq 100 minis –0.31% 
  • Week to date, the Turkish Lira is down 1.87% with the TRY/USD at 6.6642 and the Argentine Peso –5.32% to ARS/USD 38.9544. 
  • Macro investors are closely watching Brazil this morning to see if there is an impact on the BRL following the drop in the ARS: the BRL is down 2.52% for the week, with the BRL/USD currently sitting at 4.16.
  • The VIX is little changed this morning and is currently at 13.74 after closing at 13.16 last week
  • Apple (AAPL) September 07 OTM Calls, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) September 07 OTM Calls, and Bank of America (BAC) September 07 OTM Calls are the most heavily traded options contracts in the US pre-market
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are higher with yields down -0.36 basis points to 2.89%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has widened 0.04 basis points to 0.25%
  • WTI Crude is currently little changed 0.1% to USD$69.87/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread down USD$-0.98 to USD$6.95/bbl
  • Gold is currently little changed 0.22% to USD$1194.12/oz
  • WTI, after breaking above USD$/bbl yesterday is back below USD$70/bbl following news that stockpiles in Cushing, Texas increased for a 4th straight week  
  • A rally in the US Dollar is weakening the appeal of USD$-based commodities for speculators
     

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor score and financial data.

  • Adidas AG (ADS: DB) covered all bookings for its 5-year convertible bond with issue price guidance falling in the range of 104% and 106%. Adidas is ranked as ‘neutral’ in our European Large Cap Global Top Picks.  
  • Bayer (BAYN GR) has no regrets about its acquisition of Monsanto according to its CEO.  While admitting it has been a bumpy ride he reiterated the strategic reasons for the deal are intact and he looks forward to getting beyond the near-term turmoil.  Bayer is down 2.01% at 80.10 euros.  Bayer is rated ‘Neutral’ in our European Large-Cap Global Top Picks
  • Casino (CO FP) touched 26.5 euros today, its lowest price in 22 years.  Parent Rallye (RAL FP) must pledge Casino shares to draw down additional credit lines as Casino’s shares stay below 27 euros.  They have recovered to 27.31 euros, down 10.2%, as analyst continue to highlight the struggles.  Rallye is down 6.5% at 8.92 euros.  Casino is rated ‘Unattractive’ in our European Large-Cap Global Top Picks while Rallye is rated ‘Neutral’ in our European Large-Cap Global Top Picks
  • Covea (CVIA) offered a 21% premium to acquire the shares of Scor (SCR FP) it does not already own.  Presently Covea holds 8.2% of Scor.  Scor indicated it is not interested in the offer.  Scor is down .023% at 34.91 euros.  Scor is rated ‘Neutral’ in our European Large-Cap Global Top Picks.
  • Honda (7267 JP) reported its 10th consecutive month of sales declines for its perenial favorite sedan the Accord.  The abandonment of sedans by consumers is to blame.  Honda closed down 0.84% at 3,292 yen.  Honda is rated 'Top Buy' in our Japan Large-Cap Global Top Picks.
  • Komatsu (6301 JP) was downgraded by Jefferies from buy to hold with a price target dropped from 5,200 yen to 3.100.   Komatsu closed 0.67% higher at 3,161 yen.  Komatsu is rated ‘Attractive’ in our Japan Large-Cap Global Top Picks
  • Lvmh Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (LVMH: ENXTPA) shares fell 3.6% when one month at-the-money implied volatility rose to 25.5% from 22.2%. LVMH is rated as ‘top buy’ in our European Large Cap Global Top Picks.  
  • Toyota (7203 JP) recalled 1.03mn vehicles due to the risk of fires.  The recall includes Prius and CR-V models in the US and Japan.  Toyota closed down 0.62% at 6,930 yen.  Toyota is rated ‘Top Buy’ in our Japan Large-Cap Global Top Picks.
  • The potential mergers of Chinese mobile players in causing analysts to point out that the optics there could help T-Mobile’s (TMUS) case for taking over Sprint (S).  Many of the reasons cited are the similar for both cases-gaining size to help roll out 5G services as quickly as possible.  T-Mobile is rated ‘Neutral’ in our US Large-Cap Global Top Picks.  Sprint is rated ‘Unattractive’ in our US Large-Cap Global Top Picks
  • Zijin Mining (2899 HK) will acquire Nevsun Resource (NSU) in a US$1.41bn deal.  The offer represents a 57% premium over the last closing price of Nevsun and is a friendly deal.  Zijin is down 1.7% at HK$2.82.  Neither Zijin nor Nevsun are rated in our Global Top Picks.

European Stocks

  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently down -0.63%, the FTSE 100 is down -0.4%, the DAX is down -0.54%, and the CAC 40 is down -0.86%
  • HIS Markit’s Euro Zone Composite Final PMI increased to 54.5 in August 2018 from 54.3 in July 2018
  • Banks (+0.65%), Automobiles & Parts (-0.24%), and Insurance (-0.36%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Technology (-1.52%), Personal & Household Goods (-1.38%), and Food & Beverage (-1.28%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 0.42x
  • 41 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 114 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 17 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 31 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • EUR€ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.1588
  • GBP£ is currently down -0.249% against the USD$ to 1.2823
  • CHF is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.0267
  • JPY¥ is currently up +0.162% against the USD$ to 111.59
  • German 10-Year Bunds are lower with yields up 1.6 basis points to 0.373%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are lower with yields up 0.7 basis points to 1.436%
     

Asian Stocks

  • Asian stocks dropped for the fifth straight day, the longest losing streak in 3-months, over concerns about a fallout for emerging markets from economic crisises in Argentina and Turkey 
  • The Nikkei 225 finished down --0.51%, the Hang Seng ended down -2.61%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise declined -2.25%, and the CSI 300 was -1.95%
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 0.25x
  • 12 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 29 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 8 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 7 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • 6 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 3 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 1 stock in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 0 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are higher with yields down -0.8 basis points to 0.115%
  • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.8 basis points to 0.23%

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Alphabet Inc 1577 7.14 -3 -25 0.07% 3.83%
Morgan Stanley 777 7.57 1 4 0.00% -0.14%
Microsoft Corp 607 7.29 2 25 0.13% 6.22%
Bank of America Corp 543 8.00 0 -4 0.02% 0.20%
Wells Fargo & Co 533 8.14 -4 -10 -1.65% -0.79%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Wells Fargo & Co 533 8.14 -4 -10 -1.65% -0.79%
General Electric Co 68 8.00 1 2 -1.81% -24.95%
BlackRock Inc 479 8.00 0 -7 0.00% -1.96%
Bank of America Corp 543 8.00 0 -4 0.02% 0.20%
Mastercard Inc 19 7.86 13 4 0.08% 3.79%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

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ETF 30D IV 30D IV
Percentile
90D IV 90D IV
Percentile
90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV
Percentile
30D IV-
20D HV
30D IV-20D HV
Percentile
90D IV-
60D HV
90D IV-60D HV
Percentile
SPY 9.63 58.33% 11.23 61.71% 1.17 51.98% 2.63 82.74% 3.45 80.75%
QQQ 14.37 53.97% 16.21 65.87% 1.13 72.02% 5.53 93.25% 3.5 79.96%
IWM 12.4 39.29% 13.36 33.33% 1.08 47.22% 3.68 81.55% 2.66 53.97%
FEZ 16.76 88.89% 15.97 84.92% 0.95 13.1% -1.72 24.4% 1.01 50.0%
EEM 20.56 89.29% 20.09 88.49% 0.98 14.09% -1.86 23.81% 1.47 51.98%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
DUNKIN' BRANDS GROUP INC DNKN Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 4.26% 6.32% 16.45%
CBOE GLOBAL MARKETS INC CBOE Financials Capital Markets 3.13% 3.11% -15.74%
FORTINET INC FTNT Information Technology Software 2.73% 6.94% 66.32%
HOME DEPOT INC HD Consumer Discretionary Specialty Retail 2.12% 2.03% 10.32%
DOLLAR GENERAL CORP DG Consumer Discretionary Multiline Retail 1.92% 2.42% 16.37%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC VZ Telecommunication Services Diversified Telecommunication Services -2.19% -3.07% 2.9%
COMCAST CORP CMCSA Consumer Discretionary Media -1.66% -0.14% -11.0%
WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE INC WBA Consumer Staples Food & Staples Retailing -1.38% -2.66% -8.47%
EAGLE MATERIALS INC EXP Materials Construction Materials -1.32% -4.95% -24.89%
EXPRESS SCRIPTS HOLDING CO ESRX Health Care Health Care Providers & Services -1.22% -0.98% 14.48%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
FINISAR CORP FNSR Information Technology Communications Equipment -6.32% -5.78% -10.12%
SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY CO SWN Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -5.11% -5.82% -10.14%
BLOOM ENERGY CORP-REDH BE Industrials Electrical Equipment -4.96% -0.66% 13.1%
GULFPORT ENERGY CORP GPOR Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -4.08% -3.65% -16.08%
MADRIGAL PHARMACEUTICALS INC MDGL Health Care Biotechnology -3.93% -6.26% 85.9%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
FOCUS FINANCL PRTNR LLC-REDH FOCS Financials Capital Markets 8.32% 13.84% 19.73%
AVALARA INC AVLR Information Technology Software 7.5% 0.91% -10.11%
REGENXBIO INC RGNX Health Care Biotechnology 6.66% 12.28% 77.33%
ROKU INC ROKU Consumer Discretionary Household Durables 6.05% -1.41% 19.37%
SANGAMO THERAPEUTICS INC SGMO Health Care Biotechnology 4.29% 19.98% 8.2%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptos

  • Bill Barhydt, CEIO of cryptocurrency payment startup Abra, during an interview on CNBC’s Coin Rush, suggests the SEC is rejecting Bitcoin ETFs because the applicants don’t “fit the mold of who the SEC is used to approving.”  Barhydty suggests a trusted financial organization has better probability of getting a Bitcoin ETF approved than a startup. 
  • ResearchandMarkets.com forecasts that the crypto ATM industry will grow to USD$114.5mm by CY2023 and implies a per annum growth rate of ~54.7%..  The company suggests the majority of the growth will come from two-way ATMs which let customer change digital currency into fiat and vice-versa.  Furthermore, the reported by ResearchandMarkets.com posits that that the majority of the crypto ATMs will be based in North America.   At the moment, crypto ATM industry is forecasted to be ~USD$16.3mm. 
  • Robinhood is adding candlestick charts to its cryptocurrency charts.  This new addition to Robinhood’s charts comes after requests from traders on its platform. 
  • ShapeShift, the crypto trading exchange, is changing its membership policy and will begin to collect personal information of its members.  This is contrast to its earlier mission statement which claims it was an “exchange without accounts”.  Management argues this change in policy is necessary to deliver new products that its members desire like security tokens, etc. 
  • Stellar reports that is has reached 1mm accounts on its network.   
  • Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Events Calendar

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Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
HD Supply Holdings, Inc. HDS 9/5/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Industrials: C
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. OLLI 9/5/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Consumer Discretionary: B
DocuSign, Inc. DOCU 9/5/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F
Guidewire Software, Inc. GWRE 9/5/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Information Technology: D
Zscaler, Inc. ZS 9/5/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F, US Information Technology: F
Navistar International Corporation NAV 9/6/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Industrials: B
Okta, Inc. OKTA 9/6/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F, US Information Technology: F
Five Below, Inc. FIVE 9/6/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Consumer Discretionary: A
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. PANW 9/6/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Information Technology: D
GameStop Corp. GME 9/6/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Consumer Discretionary: C
Finisar Corporation FNSR 9/6/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F, US Information Technology: D
Zayo Group Holdings, Inc. ZAYO 9/6/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. HAIN 9/6/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Staples: D
Casey's General Stores, Inc. CASY 9/10/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Staples: C

Source: S&P Capital IQ