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Global Stocks declining ahead of US decision to impose further tariffs on USD$200bn in Chinese goods

Sep 07, 2018

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US Stocks

  • Global stocks are declining this morning, as markets await a decision by the US government to impose 25% tariffs on USD$200bn imports from China 
  • Emerging Markets stocks are formally in a “bear market” with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index finishing trading yesterday down more than 20.9% from a January 2018 high 
  • US stocks index futures are pointing to a negative open in NY with the Dow Jones minis –0.15%, S&P500 minis –0.12% and Nasdaq 100 minis –0.17% 
  • Change in Nonfarm payrolls for August 2018 is to be released this morning at 8:30am.  Consensus expects a result of +190k vs. +157k in July.
  • The VIX is little changed this morning and is currently at 14.94 after closing at 14.65 yesterday
  • SPY September 07 OTM Puts, HYG September 21 OTM Puts, Southwestern Energy (SWN) September 21 OTM Puts, and Apple (AAPL) September 07 OTM Calls are the most heavily traded options contracts in the US pre-market
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 1.09 basis points to 2.884%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.13 basis points to 0.24%
  • WTI Crude is currently down -1.38% to USD$67.77/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread up USD$1.24 to USD$8.46/bbl
  • Gold is currently little changed 0.13% to USD$1201.52/oz
  • The AUD/USD is down 0.44% to 0.7168, the lowest level in 2 ½ years with the Aussie Dollar viewed as a proxy for trade with China given the Australian Balance of Payments exposure to China 

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor score and financial data.

  • Bayer (BAYN GR) was rated outperform in a report published today by ZKB.  This outperform comes despite recent earnings that trailed estimates.  Bayer is down 4.1% at 72.30 euros.  Bayer is rated ‘Neutral’ in our European Large-Cap Global Top Picks
  • Becton-Dickinson (BDX) will sell its Advanced Bioprocessing unit to Thermo Fischer.  The sale will result in a tax gain for Becton and the unit contributed 13-15 cents in 2018 EPS.  Becton-Dickinson is rated ‘Unattractive’ in our US Large-Cap Global Top Picks.
  • British Airways had its website hacked and hackers got away with personal information and financial details of customers. The break-in lasted almost 2 weeks.  British Airways is owned by International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG LN).  IAG is down 3.2% at 659.60 euros.  IAG is rated ‘Attractive’ in our European Large-Cap Global Top Picks and is rated ‘Attractive’ in our United Kingdom All-Cap Global Top Picks
  • HNA of China will sell its entires stake in Deutsche Bank (DBK GR) over the next 18 months as part of USD$10bn plan to divest holdings.  HNA holds almost 8% of Deutsche Bank and was ordered by regulators to raise cash.  Deutsche Bank is down 1.1% at 9.66 euros.  Deutsche Bank is rated ‘Unattractive’ in our European Large-Cap Global Top Picks
  • Samsung’s (005930 KS) chairman of the board had an arrest warrant issued for his arrest.  The arrest warrant is related to allegations over his role in a scheme to disrupt union activities.  Samsung is not rated in our Global Top Picks.
  • Tencent (700 HK) signed a strategic partnership with local coffee chain Luckin Coffee.  The deal will include robotic delivery of coffee and use of Tencent’s WeChat for payments, including using facial recognition.  Tencent is up 0.70% at HK$316.80.  Tencent is rated ‘Top Buy’ in our China All-Cap Global Top Picks
  • If sanctions are placed on United Co Rusal (486 HK) later in the year as mentioned, it would be “a doomsday scenario” according to a report by Wood McKenzie.  They cite a market outside of China already in a deficit and say that higher prices would lower demand materially.  United is down 5.5% to HK$1.87.  United Co Rusal is listed in Hong Kong, and is rated ‘Neutral’ in our All-Cap Global Top Picks.

European Stocks

  • European stocks are declining this AM, near 5-month lows, as investors remain worried about the potential for escalating trade tensions between the US and EU 
    According to Bank of America, European equity funds saw their first inflow of capital this week for the first time in 26 weeks 
  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently down -0.21%, the FTSE 100 is down -0.54%, the DAX is down -0.27%, and the CAC 40 is down -0.11%
  • Telecommunications (+0.73%), Real Estate (+0.22%), and Health Care (+0.21%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Banks (-0.97%), Travel & Leisure (-0.76%), and Financial Services (-0.74%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 0.47x
  • 15 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 200 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 6 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 82 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is moving little changed this morning and is currently at 16.74 after closing at 17.1 last week
  • EUR€ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.1634
  • GBP£ is currently up +0.565% against the USD$ to 1.3003
  • CHF is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.0363
  • JPY¥ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 110.82
  • German 10-Year Bunds are lower with yields up 1.5 basis points to 0.37%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are lower with yields up 2.5 basis points to 1.441%

Asian Stocks

  • Asian stocks finished in the red, the worst weekly performance in 6 months as investors remain concerned about the Sino-American tariff war and economic contagion spreading from Argentina and Turkey to other emerging markets 
  • The Nikkei 225 finished down 0.8%, the Hang Seng ended down 0.01%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise declined 0.18%, and the CSI 300 was +0.45%
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 0.48x
  • 8 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 60 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 2 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 19 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 0.92x
  • 0 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 19 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 0 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 4 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are lower with yields up 0.2 basis points to 0.113%
  • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.4 basis points to 0.22%

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Alphabet Inc 930 5.14 -3 -25 0.07% 3.83%
Morgan Stanley 461 5.14 1 4 0.00% -0.14%
Coca-Cola Co/The 435 5.00 2 -10 0.00% -1.14%
Microsoft Corp 427 6.00 2 25 0.13% 6.22%
Starbucks Corp 355 5.00 -11 -23 -0.69% -2.55%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Lockheed Martin Corp 40 6.43 11 13 1.24% 4.97%
Exxon Mobil Corp 99 6.29 -7 -4 2.88% 6.00%
NIKE Inc 99 6.29 1 17 0.19% 7.33%
Visa Inc 151 6.14 10 6 -0.04% 3.49%
Microsoft Corp 427 6.00 2 25 0.13% 6.22%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

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ETF 30D IV 30D IV
Percentile
90D IV 90D IV
Percentile
90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV
Percentile
30D IV-
20D HV
30D IV-20D HV
Percentile
90D IV-
60D HV
90D IV-60D HV
Percentile
SPY 10.3 63.1% 11.76 67.06% 1.14 46.63% 3.15 90.08% 3.91 87.9%
QQQ 16.5 72.62% 17.07 73.02% 1.03 30.36% 5.93 94.44% 3.93 88.1%
IWM 12.98 50.6% 13.67 41.07% 1.05 28.97% 3.75 83.33% 2.88 57.74%
FEZ 17 88.89% 16.86 90.87% 0.99 20.63% -1.21 29.76% 2.08 55.16%
EEM 20.21 85.32% 20.07 87.7% 0.99 17.66% -2.22 21.03% 1.26 50.0%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
TOTAL SYSTEM SERVICES INC TSS Information Technology IT Services 2.5% 2.06% 23.48%
FORTINET INC FTNT Information Technology Software 1.76% 2.97% 65.05%
ROBERT HALF INTL INC RHI Industrials Professional Services 1.67% -4.5% 31.11%
NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP NOC Industrials Aerospace & Defense 1.65% 1.53% -0.09%
MCCORMICK & CO INC MKC Consumer Staples Food Products 1.42% 4.2% 25.61%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
PG&E CORP PCG Utilities Electric Utilities -3.18% -2.96% 2.31%
BROADCOM INC AVGO Information Technology Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment -2.49% 0.45% -19.84%
NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP NXST Consumer Discretionary Media -2.49% -1.5% 4.72%
MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE VAC Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure -2.01% -4.87% -15.54%
SEI INVESTMENTS CO SEIC Financials Capital Markets -1.93% -1.43% -14.32%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
SANGAMO THERAPEUTICS INC SGMO Health Care Biotechnology -10.88% -25.26% -29.63%
GARDNER DENVER HOLDINGS INC GDI Industrials Machinery -7.94% -14.29% -30.17%
CALIFORNIA RESOURCES CORP CRC Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -7.64% -5.13% 61.7%
OASIS PETROLEUM INC OAS Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -6.95% -6.5% 36.62%
GLOBAL BLOOD THERAPEUTICS GBT Health Care Biotechnology -6.72% -6.93% 8.52%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
AMBARELLA INC AMBA Information Technology Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment 4.35% 1.41% -42.77%
FOSSIL GROUP INC FOSL Consumer Discretionary Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods 4.2% 3.25% 98.27%
ROKU INC ROKU Consumer Discretionary Household Durables 3.6% 5.96% 20.0%
PTC THERAPEUTICS INC PTCT Health Care Biotechnology 3.11% 5.71% 91.99%
AVALARA INC AVLR Information Technology Software 3.01% 4.59% -7.73%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptos

  • Bitcoin Cash successfully navigated a stress test on September 1, where the network was flooded with 2.1mm transactions.  The “stress test” is a community driven test of the BCH mainnet and its services with the goal of testing “millions of minimum fee transactions” within 24 hours in order to prove the Bitcoin Cash blockchain’s capacity and scalability. 
  • Coinbase is allegedly exploring the potential for a Bitcoin ETF with BlackRock.  Business Insider is reporting that two firms are examining the potential to launch a joint product, though BlackRock has formally stated it has no interest in becoming a crypto fund issuer itself. 
  • Goldman Sachs CFO Martin Chavez is saying news that the bank is abandoning plans to open its cryptocurrency trading desk is “fake news”.  Chavez clarified that Goldman Sachs thinks they need to first develop a custody solution before rolling out a strategy to physically trade Bitcoin. 
  • The creator of the first proof-of-stake based cryptocurrency, who goes by the pseudonym Sunny King, revealed in an interview with CoinDesk that he is working on a new supernode proof-of-stake concept. The new proof-of-stake Sunny described would utilize specialized hardware and potentially be better suited for highspeed blockchain transactions.  
  • Robinhood, the mobile zero-fee investment app, revealed Thursday that the firm is actively looking for a CFO while citing ‘definite’ plans for the firm to go public. Robinhood CEO Baiju Bhatt expanded, saying, “it’s definitely on the horizon, not in the immediate term, but that’s something we are thinking about.” 
  • A survey by YouGov Omnibus finds that half of American Millennials are interested in using cryptocurrencies.  The survey covered 1,202 persons and according to the results, 79% of the respondents knew of at least one cryptocurrency and 71% knew of Bitcoin.   
  • The Winklevoss twins have won a patent for a cold storage method of protecting crypto keys that involves air-gapped computers, geographically remote vaults, plastic cards, and papyrus. The patent, awarded on Tuesday, was awarded to the brothers’ firm, Winklevoss IP, LLC by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.  
  • Wyre, a crypto payments startup, has acquired Hedgy, a venture capitalist backed bitcoin smart contract development firm. Wyre hopes to leverage the acquisition of Hedgy in order to wider their crypt financial ecosystem, specifically by offering more financial instruments, such as forwards, swaps, and more.  

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio