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Morning Brief

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Global stocks are little changed this morning following rumors that the ECB has lowered growth forecasts

Sep 12, 2018

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US Stocks

  • Global stocks are nominally positive this morning, with a bid into tech stocks ahead of the Apple (AAPL) iPhone refresh 
  • US stock index futures are little changed ahead of the open in NY with the Dow Jones minis +0.09%, S&P500 minis +0.09% and Nasdaq 100 minis +0.23% 
  • Apple (AAPL) is to unveil its Fall lineup of 3 new iPhone models and a new iWatch screen today 
  • The VIX is little changed this morning and is currently at 13.17 after closing at 13.22 last week
  • HYG November 2018 & December 2018 OTM Puts, SPY September 14 OTM Calls, EM September OTM Puts, and EWZ October 19 OTM Calls are the most heavily traded options contracts in the US pre-market
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are higher with yields down -1.29 basis points to 2.9626%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.48 basis points to 0.23%
  • WTI Crude is currently up 2.53% to USD$69.25/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread down USD$-2.42 to USD$9.96/bbl
  • Gold is currently down -0.28% to USD$1195.23/oz 

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor score and financial data.

  • Casino (CO FP) had its price target cut again by Bernstein from 26 to 20 euros.  Bernstein cited inter-company debts and emerging markets weakness in its downgrade.  Casino is trading up 0.30% at 29.47 euros.  Casino is rated ‘Unattractive’ in our European Large-Cap Global Top Picks 
  • Galliford Try (GFRD LN) FY2018 came better than expected  due to strong performance from its Linden division.  Pretax profit of 189mm pounds compared with 175mn expected.  Galliford is up 7.2% at 1071 pounds.   Galliford is rated ‘Unattractive’ in our United Kingdom Global Top Picks.
  • Hermes (RMS FP) reported record 1H18 profits with income from recurring operations of 985mm euros a touch above estimates on strong China sales.  Hermes confirmed ambitious guidance for revenue growth in 2018.  Hermes is rated ‘Neutral’ in our European Large-Cap Global Top Picks
  • Kubota (6326) reported it shipped products from its rolling mills that did not meet customer demands.  It said at least 85 customers received products that did not meet hardness and composition requirements.  Kubota is rated ‘Attractive’ in our Japan Large-Cap Global Top Picks
  • Micron (MU) was downgraded at Goldman Sachs to neutral from buy.  Goldman cited concerns on pricing in the downgrade.  Micron is rated ‘Top Buy’ in both our US Large-Cap and US Information Technology Global Top Picks
  • Rohm (6963) reported lower monthly sales with August sales up 0-5%.  Rohm described a “seasonal recovery trend” with automotive demand still strong.  Rohm closed down 10.5% at 8400 yen.  Rohm is not rated in our Global Top Picks
  • Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK) fell 14.3% to close at HKD$7.50 after the government said it needs to step up oversight of drug makers to ensure safety of its citizens.  Sino is rated ‘Top Buy’ in our China All-Cap Global Top Picks
  • SSE Plc (SSE LN) is falling 7.8% at 1153 pounds after issuing a profit warning.  It said high natural gas prices as well as persistent hot weather over the summer will cut earnings.  SSE is rated ‘Unattractive’ in our United Kingdom Global Top Picks.
  • Tencent (700 HK) backed NIO Inc. (NIO) will start trading today on the NYSE after raising almost USD$1bn in an IPO.  The pricing was at the low end.  NIO seeks to take on Tesla (TSLA) in the electric car sector.  Tencent is up 0.13% at HKD$308.40.  Tencent is rated 'Top Buy' in our China All-Cap Global Top Picks and Tesla is rated 'Unattractive' in both our US Large-Cap and US Information Technology Global Top Picks
  • Volkswagen (VOW GR) said its plan to offer an electric version of every car it makes will cost more than the 20 billion euros originally mentioned.  A new cost was not given.  Volkswagen is up 0.15% at 135.80 euros.  Volkswagen is rated ‘Unattractive’ in our European Large-Cap Global Top Picks

European Stocks

  • European stocks are little changed with a positive bias this morning, following dovish comments by the European Central Bank (ECB)  
  • ECB, according to reporting by Bloomberg, has downgraded its Euro-area growth forecasts as global trade tensions has dampened external demand  
  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently up +0.24%, the FTSE 100 is down -0.13%, the DAX has risen +0.21%, and the CAC 40 is up +0.51%
  • Retail (+1.46%), Basic Resources (+1.19%), and Oil & Gas (+1.08%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Utilities (-1.32%), Telecommunications (-0.63%), and Banks (-0.36%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 1.69x
  • 37 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 122 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 12 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 67 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is little changed this morning and is currently at 15.52 after closing at 15.79 yesterday
  • EUR€ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.159
  • GBP£ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.3021
  • CHF is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.0278
  • German 10-Year Bunds are higher with yields down -1.2 basis points to 0.42%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are higher with yields down -1 basis points to 1.49%

Asian Stocks

  • Asian stocks closed down, as investors in the region continue to worry about the impact of rising global tension between the US and its major trade partners, emerging markets contagion, and economic weakness in the Chinese economy 
  • The Nikkei 225 finished down --0.27%, the Hang Seng ended down -0.29%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise declined -0.91%, and the CSI 300 was -0.69%
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 0.54x
  • 32 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 23 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 13 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 19 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished neutral with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 1x
  • 2 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 18 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 1 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 10 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are higher with yields down -0.2 basis points to 0.113%
  • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.2 basis points to 0.22%
  • JPY¥ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 111.49

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

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Name 7 Day News Volume 7 Day Average News Buzz 1M EPS Net Revisions 3M EPS Net Revisions 1M EPS % Chg 3M EPS % Chg
Microsoft Corp 248 4.29 3 25 0.14% 6.18%
Ford Motor Co 235 7.29 -1 -7 -0.06% -14.71%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The 229 5.14 0 9 0.0% 7.06%
Netflix Inc 180 4.57 -2 -25 -2.06% 1.53%
Visa Inc 159 6.43 -1 7 0.06% 3.3%

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News BuzzNote: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

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Name 7 Day News Volume 7 Day Average News Buzz 1M EPS Net Revisions 3M EPS Net Revisions 1M EPS % Chg 3M EPS % Chg
Lockheed Martin Corp 41 8 2 13 0.13% 4.97%
FedEx Corp 15 7.43 0 -13 -1.78% -4.23%
Ford Motor Co 235 7.29 -1 -7 -0.06% -14.71%
Verizon Communications Inc 54 7.14 -2 -16 0.0% 0.41%
Halliburton Co 18 7.14 -6 -21 -7.85% -20.32%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

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ETF 30D IV 30D IV Percentile 90D IV 90D IV Percentile 90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV Percentile 30D IV-20D HV 30D IV-20D HV Percentile 90D IV-60D HV 90D IV-60D HV Percentile
SPY 9.19 48.81% 11.74 62.9% 1.28 84.33% 2.67 80.95% 3.91 84.92%
QQQ 14.46 54.96% 16.48 66.27% 1.14 74.01% 3.81 78.17% 3.39 79.96%
IWM 12.19 34.33% 13.41 34.72% 1.1 65.67% 3.41 74.01% 2.7 54.56%
FEZ 15.68 79.37% 15.74 80.95% 1 24.8% -0.2 35.32% 0.64 48.02%
EEM 20.02 84.33% 19.84 83.33% 0.99 20.04% -0.99 32.14% 1.03 47.62%

S&P 500 Sector PerformanceNote: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

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WINNERS TICKER SECTOR INDUSTRY 1 DAY RETURN 5 DAY RETURN YTD
FIRSTCASH INC FCFS Financials Consumer Finance 1.99% 0.8% 18.57%
NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP NXST Consumer Discretionary Media 1.89% -1.12% 5.72%
COSTAR GROUP INC CSGP Industrials Professional Services 1.79% -0.65% 40.24%
VULCAN MATERIALS CO VMC Materials Construction Materials 1.75% -1.45% -18.27%
SEI INVESTMENTS CO SEIC Financials Capital Markets 1.73% -0.87% -12.75%
LOSERS TICKER SECTOR INDUSTRY 1 DAY RETURN 5 DAY RETURN YTD
MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE VAC Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure -4.03% -8.69% -22.26%
BROADCOM INC AVGO Information Technology Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment -3.41% 5.81% -12.44%
DOMINO'S PIZZA INC DPZ Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure -2.47% -3.42% 43.18%
SERVICEMASTER GLOBAL HLDGS SERV Consumer Discretionary Diversified Consumer Services -2.04% -3.52% 12.97%
NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP NSC Industrials Road & Rail -1.19% 2.06% 20.62%

 Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

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WINNERS TICKER SECTOR INDUSTRY 1 DAY RETURN 5 DAY RETURN YTD
ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC ACAD Health Care Biotechnology -3.35% -5.41% -81.35%
CIRRUS LOGIC INC CRUS Information Technology Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment -3.2% -6.84% -26.25%
AVALARA INC AVLR Information Technology Software -2.93% 2.79% -7.31%
SPARK THERAPEUTICS INC ONCE Health Care Biotechnology -2.72% -5.33% 11.07%
AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS AGIO Health Care Biotechnology -2.63% -11.26% 19.21%

 

LOSERS TICKER SECTOR INDUSTRY 1 DAY RETURN 5 DAY RETURN YTD
SUPERIOR ENERGY SERVICES INC SPN Energy Energy Equipment & Services 5.64% -0.23% -14.33%
CALIFORNIA RESOURCES CORP CRC Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 5.41% -9.01% 63.65%
PATTERSON-UTI ENERGY INC PTEN Energy Energy Equipment & Services 4.47% -1.7% -30.92%
PENNEY (J C) CO JCP Consumer Discretionary Multiline Retail 4.45% 4.45% -64.3%
CARRIZO OIL & GAS INC CRZO Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 4.18% -0.12% 5.0%

 Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptos

  • AirSwap, a decentralized cryptocurrency trading platform announced a new partnership Tuesday that will tokenize New York’s real estate markets. AirSwap will partner with FINRA-registered broker dealer Propellr. In a statement, AirSwap said their main goal is to reduce time to complete secondary market transactions of private securities from months to days. 
  • The Australian Trade and Investment Commission (Austrade), the country’s trade agency, and the Australian Digital Commerce Association are jointly sending a delegation of domestic blockchain startups to visit some of China’s largest fintech companies this week. China is one of the world’s leaders in innovative blockchain technology, having filed over 10% of the world’s blockchain patents.  
  • Authorities from US states Illinois and Arizona are asking India’s Criminal Investigation Department (CID) to seize property of promoters of Bitcoin investment firm BitConnect. The two US states are accusing BitConnect of being a Ponzi scheme, having raised approximately USD$5.6 billion from investors. India’s Criminal Investigation Department also claims BitConnect is suspected of money-laundering.  
  • CoinDesk is reporting that there is a new major competitor for Bitmain.  Bitewei, a Shenzhen-based mining chip manufacturer led by the former director of design at Bitmain, Yang Zuoxing, raised CNY40 million (USD$20 million) to bring to mining hardware to market.  Bitewei and Bitmain have been battling over the past 2 years in regards to intellectual property designed by Yang.   
  • A variety of blockchain funds, exchanges, and startup have come together to form the Blockchain Association, a lobbying group for the crypto industry. Reported Tuesday, some founding members include Coinbase, Polychain Capital, Protocol Labs, and Digital Currency Group. One of the association’s first hires is Kristin Smith, former Senate aide. The Blockchain Association will specifically focus on lobbying for tax laws and know your customers/anti-money laundering regulations.  
  • Japanese telecom company, Softbank Corporation, has completed a proof-of-concept (PoC) for a blockchain that would allow peer to peer mobile payments across different carriers. Announced early Wednesday, the technology is the product of a partnership with blockchain startup TBCASoft, and Synchronoss, a publicly traded company that works with a communications protocol in Japan called Rich Communication Service.  

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Events Calendar

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Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
Tailored Brands, Inc. TLRD 9/12/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Consumer Discretionary: C
Pivotal Software, Inc. PVTL 9/12/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F, US Information Technology: F
Adobe Systems Incorporated ADBE 9/12/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Information Technology: A
Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited SEHK:16 9/12/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
China South City Holdings Limited SEHK:1668 9/12/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Union Medical Healthcare Limited SEHK:2138 9/12/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: A
China Water Affairs Group Limited SEHK:855 9/12/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: A
Shunten International (Holdings) Limited SEHK:932 9/12/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: F
The Kroger Co. KR 9/13/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Consumer Staples: C
iShares Asia Trust - iShares FTSE A50 China Index ETF SEHK:2823 9/13/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. PLAY 9/14/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: C
FedEx Corporation FDX 43360.677 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Industrials: A
Oracle Corporation ORCL 9/17/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Information Technology: B

Source: S&P Capital IQ