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Morning Brief

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Global stocks are edging higher this morning for the second straight day as stocks shrug off Sino-US Trade tensions

Sep 19, 2018

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US Stocks

  • Global stocks are drifting higher this morning, as investors continue to shrug off Sino-US trade tensions and focus on an acceleration in corporate earnings growth 
  • US stocks index futures are pointing to a neutral open in NY with the Dow Jones minis +0.07% S&P500 minis -0.03% and Nasdaq 100 minis +0.01% 
  • The VIX is little changed this morning and is currently at 12.65 after closing at 12.79 yesterday
  • Petrobras (PBR) September 21 OTM Calls, EWZ November 16 OTM Calls, EEM September 28 & October 19 OTM Calls, and Fortive Corp (FTV) October 18 OTM Calls & Puts are the most heavily traded options contracts in the US pre-market
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 0.19 basis points to 3.05%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has widened 0.16 basis points to 0.26%
  • An analysis by Thomson Reuters raises the specter of China selling US Treasuries to help prevent a devaluation in the Yuan (RMB) -- according to their analysis, China USD$1.18tr of the USD$3.11tr of China’s FX Reserves are in US Treasuries
  • WTI Crude is currently up 1.36% to USD$69.85/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread down USD$-1.25 to USD$8.95/bbl
  • Gold is currently up 0.44% to USD$1203.67/oz
  • Global oil prices continue to inch upwards as traders continue to forecast a supply shortfall once US sanctions against Iran are implemented

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor score and financial data.

  • Amazon (AMZN) is gaining market share with its ad business at the expense of Facebook (FB) and Alphabet's Google (GOOGL) according to new report out by EMarketer where they estimated the market.  They see Amazon generating USD$4.61bn in ad sales this year for a 4.2% market share.  Facebook and Google combined help 58% of the market, down from 59%.  Amazon is rated ‘Attractive’ in our US Large-Cap Global Top Picks and ‘Top Buy’ in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Picks.  Facebook is rated ‘Neutral’ in our US Large-Cap Global Top Picks and ‘Attractive’ in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Picks.  Alphabet is rated ‘Neutral’ in our US Large-Cap Global Top Picks and ‘Attractive’ in our US Information Technology Global Top Picks.  
  • Danske’s (DANSKE DC) CEO will step down after the bank issued a report stating it believes USD$234bn flowed through its Estonian unit with an estimates USD$9.1bn being laundered.  The stock is down 7.2% at 162.20 kronos.  Danske is rated ‘Top Short’ in our European Large-Cap Global Top Picks
  • Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) rose 11.9% to HKD$4.99 on news it chairman bought a large chunk of stock.  This is the first time he has increased his H shares stake and is being taken as a sign of confidence.  Great Wall is rated ‘Neutral’ in our China All-Cap Global Top Picks
  • JSW Steel (JSTL IN) rose 2.6% to close at 417.60 rupees on news that the Indian Steel Ministry has recommended raising import taxes on some steel products to 15% from levels presently 5-12.5%.  This was reported by Reuters earlier today.  JSW is not rated on our Global Top Picks
  • Kingfisher Plc (KGF LN) reported 1H results that missed consensus with a profit of 404mn pounds while   consensus was 413mn pounds.  The stock is down 3.4% today at 29% year to date.   Kingfisher is rated ‘Unattractive’ in our United-Kingdom All-Cap Global Top Picks
  • Meituan Dianping said the retail portion of its IPO is 1.5x oversubscribed with pricing set for September 20th.  Meituan is the Alibaba (BABA) backed food delivery and services company seeking to raised HKD$32.6bn in its Hong Kong IPO.  Alibaba closed yesterday at $156.65 and is indicated pre-market at $158.  Alibaba is rated ‘Neutral’ in our China All-Cap Global Top Picks
  • Tencent (700 HK) will seek to raise USD$2bn in its music Tencent Music IPO according to Reuters.  If confirmed this would be about half the amount initially reported to be raised.  Tencent closed up 1.1% at HKD$321.60.  Tencent is rated ‘Top Buy’ in our China All-Cap Global Top Picks
  • Tilray (TLRY), the cannabis pharmaceutical company is up over 40% in pre-market trading to USD$211.  This AM’s move is a continuation of the 29% jump in yesterday’s trading following news the US DEA approved Tilray’s plans to import medical marijuana into California to support clinical trials.  Tilray’s CEO, Brendan Kennedy, was on CNBC earlier this AM touting the growth prospects for the company.  The stock is not rated in our Global Top Picks.

European Stocks

  • European stocks are edging higher this AM, with auto manufacturers and mining stocks leading the advance in sympathy with Asian stocks
  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently up +0.12%, the FTSE 100 is higher by +0.05%, the DAX has risen +0.33%, and the CAC 40 is up +0.33%
  • UK Core CPI for August grew +2.1% Y/Y vs. Consensus of +1.8% and +1.9% in July
  • Basic Resources (+1.62%), Chemicals (+1.44%), and Automobiles & Parts (+0.99%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Real Estate (-0.79%), Utilities (-0.78%), and Telecommunications (-0.75%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is neutral with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 1.14x
  • 61 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 63 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 13 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 35 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is little changed this morning and is currently at 13.87 after closing at 14.36 yesterday
  • EUR€ is currently up +0.231% against the USD$ to 1.1694
  • GBP£ is currently up +0.319% against the USD$ to 1.319
  • CHF is currently down -0.338% against the USD$ to 1.0332
  • German 10-Year Bunds are lower with yields up 0.2 basis points to 0.482%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are lower with yields up 3.5 basis points to 1.603%

Asian Stocks

  • Asian stocks finished in the green overnight, the second straight day of positive returns, as investors looked past US-China trade disagreements 
  • The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its policy rate unchanged at –0.10%, putting a bid into Japanese stocks
  • The Nikkei 225 finished up +1.08%, the Hang Seng ended up +1.19%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise up +1.75%, and the CSI 300 was +1.32%
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 6.76x
  • 104 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 3 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 36 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 1 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 4x
  • 4 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 4 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 1 stock in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 2 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are lower with yields up 0.7 basis points to 0.124%
  • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has widened 0.4 basis points to 0.22%
  • JPY¥ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 112.42

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Microsoft Corp 294 9.43 1 24 0.26% 6.32%
Ford Motor Co 281 8.14 0 -7 0.53% -14.71%
Netflix Inc 233 7 -3 -26 -1.25% 1.53%
Visa Inc 229 8.57 0 7 0.12% 3.32%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The 187 7.14 -2 8 0.0% 7.08%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
FedEx Corp 29 10 -1 -13 1.45% -3.19%
Oracle Corp 26 10 -8 -18 -1.29% -6.65%
NVIDIA Corp 72 10 -7 -4 0.12% 0.5%
Procter & Gamble Co/The 21 10 0 -14 -0.04% -0.6%
Coca-Cola Co/The 73 9.57 0 -8 -0.31% -0.85%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

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ETF 30D IV 30D IV
Percentile
90D IV 90D IV
Percentile
90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV
Percentile
30D IV-
20D HV
30D IV-20D HV
Percentile
90D IV-
60D HV
90D IV-60D HV
Percentile
SPY 8.73 36.9% 11.26 56.35% 1.29 86.9% 2.96 84.13% 3.43 76.59%
QQQ 14.86 59.33% 16.93 69.84% 1.14 75.4% 3.07 69.44% 3.43 79.56%
IWM 11.64 17.06% 12.61 9.33% 1.08 54.96% 4.27 88.1% 1.95 42.06%
FEZ 14.32 66.67% 14.7 69.05% 1.03 32.94% -0.11 36.9% 0.01 40.48%
EEM 18.18 71.23% 19.78 81.75% 1.09 71.03% -0.89 34.33% 1.11 50.0%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
LIGAND PHARMACEUTICAL INC LGND Health Care Biotechnology 4.64% 2.72% 65.06%
NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP NSC Industrials Road & Rail 4.06% 4.78% 25.4%
BROADCOM INC AVGO Information Technology Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment 2.79% 3.77% -8.67%
DOMINO'S PIZZA INC DPZ Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 2.59% -1.5% 41.68%
NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP NOC Industrials Aerospace & Defense 2.1% 4.73% 5.06%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
KELLOGG CO K Consumer Staples Food Products -1.81% -0.14% 10.04%
FIRSTCASH INC FCFS Financials Consumer Finance -1.54% -1.18% 17.39%
SUN COMMUNITIES INC SUI Real Estate Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) -1.18% -0.14% 12.05%
SYNOVUS FINANCIAL CORP SNV Financials Banks -1.12% -4.99% -1.9%
TYSON FOODS INC  -CL A TSN Consumer Staples Food Products -1.1% -1.84% -24.34%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
MADRIGAL PHARMACEUTICALS INC MDGL Health Care Biotechnology -9.71% -11.65% 75.51%
PIVOTAL SOFTWARE INC PVTL Information Technology Software -5.25% -32.48% 25.11%
PBF ENERGY INC PBF Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -2.21% -2.75% 36.32%
FINISAR CORP FNSR Information Technology Communications Equipment -1.71% -5.95% -13.09%
CARVANA CO CVNA Consumer Discretionary Specialty Retail -1.67% -17.8% 117.47%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
CALIFORNIA RESOURCES CORP CRC Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 7.86% 5.23% 68.89%
LIBERTY MEDIA FORMULA ONE FWONK Consumer Discretionary Media 7.14% 9.58% 10.72%
ARRAY BIOPHARMA INC ARRY Health Care Biotechnology 6.62% 4.46% 7.94%
FITBIT INC FIT Information Technology Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components 6.22% -2.39% -3.56%
PUMA BIOTECHNOLOGY INC PBYI Health Care Biotechnology 5.84% -0.96% -68.4%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptos

  • According to an industry analysis newsletter, Diar, a majority of Bitcoins (BTC) in circulation are stored in investment wallets. The newsletter reports that 55% of BTC are currently kept in wallets with an individual average wallet value more than USD$1.3 million. About one-third of these wallets have not been used since BTC’s price peaked in 2017, due to either lost private keys, lowering real supply, or simply strong resolve by cryptocurrency believers.  
  • Dunamu, the operator of major South Korean crypto exchange Upbit, is planning on opening a Singapore-based crypto exchange next month. According to local news outlet Yonhap News, Dunamu has already opened a branch in Singapore this past February as a part of its push into Asian markets. The firm is hoping the crypto exchange will go live as early as October.  
  • The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) believes that no token it has seen could be classified as a security. While participating in a fireside chat at CoinDesk’s Consensus Singapore 2018 conference, Damien Pang, head of the MAS technology infrastructure office for fintech and innovation, discussed, “A Guide to Digital Toke Offerings”, which was framework published in 2017. He went on to describe that all tokens he has seen fall into the three categories of tokens laid out in the framework, which are utility tokens, payments tokens, and securities tokens.  
  • The NY Attorney General’s (AG) office published a report last night which suggests cryptocurrency exchanges are plagued by poor market performance, conflicts of interest and limited customer protections.  The NY AG’s office has asked the NY Department of Financial Services to review whether there are three exchanges operating unlawfully in the state.   The report highlights conflicts of interest such as trading platforms trading for their own account without offering clients transparency or disclosure into/of these trades. 
  • Tim McCourt, managing director and global head of equity products and alternative investments at CME Group, said that bitcoin futures are not to blame for the crypto bear market in 2017. While speaking at Coindesk’s Consensus Singapore 2018 Event, McCourt said, “We are just a small part of the market.” McCourt went on to discuss that the bitcoin futures market has been growing, especially within Asia, which is now responsible for half of bitcoin futures trading on CME.  
  • Trading legend and founder of high-speed trading firm DRW, Don Wilson, said while at Coindesk’s Consensus Singapore 2018 conference that bitcoin derivatives trading in Asia hours is almost equal to the volume seen in the US. Wilson went on to add that this trend is abnormal, especially when compared to other financial instruments. Specifically, Wilson referenced that Japanese yen-dollar trading volume is significantly lower in Asia. 

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Events Calendar

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Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
Copart, Inc. CPRT 9/19/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Industrials: B
Red Hat, Inc. RHT 9/19/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Information Technology: C
Lennar Corporation LEN 9/19/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Consumer Discretionary: D
Micron Technology, Inc. MU 9/19/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Information Technology: A
New World Development Company Limited SEHK:17 9/19/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI 9/20/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Discretionary: A
Thor Industries, Inc. THO 9/20/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Consumer Discretionary: D
SIG plc SHI 9/20/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Santana Minerals Limited SMI 9/21/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Carnival Corporation CCL 9/23/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Discretionary: B
China Internet Nationwide Financial Services Inc. CIFS 9/24/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
FactSet Research Systems Inc. FDS 9/25/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A
Jabil Inc. JBL 9/25/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Information Technology: A
NIKE, Inc. NKE 9/25/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Consumer Discretionary: B
Cintas Corporation CTAS 9/25/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Industrials: C
KB Home KBH 9/25/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: D
CarMax, Inc. KMX 9/25/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: C

Source: S&P Capital IQ