morning-quant-ride

Morning Brief

Wake up to the Morning Quant Ride, your global markets update every morning!

Global stocks start week in red with US-China trade tensions back on investor minds as we inch closer to 3Q Earnings season

Sep 24, 2018

Start Your Free Trial Today

 

US Stocks

  • Global stocks are starting the last week of September on a negative note with stocks selling off on renewed worries about US-China trade tensions as Chinese cancel participation in trade talks with the US
  • US stocks index futures are moving higher, pointing to a positive open in NY with the Dow Jones minis –0.12% S&P500 minis –0.14% and Nasdaq 100 minis –0.35% 
  • Newly approved tariffs by the US and Chinese governments are to begin today 
  • The reconfiguration of the S&P 500 sector funds begins with the S&P 500 Communications Services sector set to launch today – notable names like Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOG.L) and Netflix (NFLX) are set to join the new sector 
  • The VIX is currently little changed at 12.34 from yesterday's close of 11.68
  • Fortive Corp (FTV) October 19 OTM Calls & Puts, Transocean (RIG) January 2019 OTM Puts, EEM October 19 OTM Puts, SPY September 28 OTM Puts, and FXI December 2018 OTM Puts are the most heavily traded options contracts in the US pre-market
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 1.68 basis points to 3.0796%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has widened 0.39 basis points to 0.27%
  • WTI Crude is currently up 1.38% to USD$71.78/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread up USD$1 to USD$8.25/bbl
  • Gold is currently little changed -0.06% to USD$1199.31/oz
  • Oil prices continue to rebound following tepid comments from OPEC regarding production increases to offset losses from Iranian production after the November deadline for US sanctions against Iran begins 
  • Commodity merchants Trafigura and Mercuria, during the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) in Singapore, stated that global oil prices may move towards to USD$100/bbl by the end of the year

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor score and financial data.

  • Barrick Resources (ABX CN) agreed to buy Randgold Resources (RRS LN) for about USD$6bn in an all-shares deal.    Barrick shareholders will hold about two-thirds of the new company post-deal.  The deal is designed to address Barrick’s weak production growth outlook.  Randgold is trading 6.2% higher at 52.28 pounds.  Randgold is rated ‘Unattractive’ in our United Kingdom Global Top Picks and Barrick Gold is not rated in our Global Top Picks.
  • Casino (CO FP) said it rejected a takeover offer from Carrefour (CA FP) but then Carrefour said it never made an offer.  Most analysts comment that a tie-up would be unlikely to happen given the anti-trust concerns it would raise in France.  Casino is trading +0.19% at 36.11 euros while Carrefour is +0.24% at 16.63 euros.  Casino is rated ‘Unattractive’ in our European Large-Cal Global Top Picks and Carrefour is rated ‘Neutral’ in our European Large-Cap Global Top Picks
  • Comcast (CMCSA) won the auction for Sky (SKY LN) over the weekend, beating out Fox (FOXA) in the auction.   The final deal was worth USD$39bn at 17.28 pounds per share.  Fox presently owns a large chunk of Sky and has not indicated yet what it will do with that stake.  Sky is up 8.7% at 17.23 pounds, Fox is indicated 1% higher in pre-market at $44.79 and Comcast in indicated 2% lower at $36.49.  Sky is rated ‘Unattractive’ in our United Kingdom Global Top Picks, Fox is rated ‘Neutral’ in our US Large-Cap Global Top Picks and ‘Top Buy’ in our US Consumer Discretionary while Comcast is not rated in Global Top Picks
  • Facebook (FB) was warned by EU’s Justice Commissioner about its data-collection practices in what most are considering foreshadowing of more focus to come.   She was quoted as saying she believes many social medias giants are “…using customer data in ways that the average customer may not understand.”  Facebook is rated is rated ‘Neutral’ in our US Large-Cap Global Top Picks and ‘Attractive’ in our US Information Technology Global Top Picks
  • Michael Kors (KORS) is in talks to acquire Versace for around USD$2bn according to a report by Bloomberg.   Reports are that the Versace family will retain a role in the new company.  Nothing confirmed by either company.  Kors is not rated in Global Top Picks
  • Thomas Cook (TCG LN) replaced its CFO after it cut its forecast for the second time in 2 months.  An unusually hot summer has limited customers’ desire to travel.  The stocks is down 19% at 63.05 pounds.  Thomas Cook is rated ‘Top Short’ in our United Kingdom Global Top Picks
  • Yes Bank (YES IN) had its price target cut at Morgan Stanley by 40% to 225 rupees from 372.  The main reason cited was the government’s prohibition on its CEO and founder continuing in that role.  Yes is rated ‘Attractive’ in our India All-Cap Global Top Picks

European Stocks

  • European stocks are declining to begin the week, currently at the lows of the morning as US-China trade tensions are top of mind for investors as we inch closer towards 3Q earnings seasons
  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently down -0.22%, the FTSE 100 has declined -0.1%, the DAX has fallen -0.25%, and the CAC 40 is lower by -0.15%
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 0.46x
  • Media (+1.34%), Oil & Gas (+1.33%), and Retail (+0.38%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Personal & Household Goods (-0.81%), Automobiles & Parts (-0.8%), and Utilities (-0.75%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • 137 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 35 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 40 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 19 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is moving little changed this morning and is currently at 13.5 after closing at 12.82 last week
  • EUR€ is currently up +0.162% against the USD$ to 1.1768
  • GBP£ is currently up +0.382% against the USD$ to 1.3122
  • CHF is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.0427
  • German 10-Year Bunds are lower with yields up 1 basis points to 0.472%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are lower with yields up 2 basis points to 1.573%

Asian Stocks

  • Asian stocks started the week negative, with Hong Kong stocks falling as Sino–US trade tensions haven’t shown any material improvement 
  • Japanese, Chinese, South Korean and Taiwanese markets were closed for Fall Equinox holiday 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right.

Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Alphabet Inc 898 8.14 -2 -25 -0.0% 4.58%
Netflix Inc 705 8.86 -3 -26 0.0% 1.66%
Ford Motor Co 511 7.71 0 -7 0.53% -14.71%
Microsoft Corp 490 6.71 1 24 0.22% 6.41%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The 421 7 -2 8 0.0% 7.08%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right.

Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Costco Wholesale Corp 39 9.14 10 11 0.55% 0.74%
Accenture PLC 57 9.14 -1 15 -0.0% 2.25%
Netflix Inc 705 8.86 -3 -26 0.0% 1.66%
QUALCOMM Inc 123 8.86 0 14 -0.17% 8.42%
International Business Machines Corp 186 8.86 0 0 0.0% 1.56%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right.

ETF 30D IV 30D IV
Percentile
90D IV 90D IV
Percentile
90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV
Percentile
30D IV-
20D HV
30D IV-20D HV
Percentile
90D IV-
60D HV
90D IV-60D HV
Percentile
SPY 8.04 26.59% 11.48 59.52% 1.43 99.21% 1.43 52.78% 4.25 90.08%
QQQ 14.33 51.19% 16.42 63.89% 1.15 78.57% 1.9 58.53% 3.94 87.7%
IWM 11.33 10.71% 13.12 19.44% 1.16 89.09% 4.15 86.51% 3.42 71.03%
FEZ 13.73 61.71% 13.96 56.75% 1.02 30.36% -1.34 28.57% -0.95 27.78%
EEM 17.22 59.72% 18.48 69.44% 1.07 62.5% -1.31 32.54% 0.05 39.29%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right

Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
MOTOROLA SOLUTIONS INC MSI Information Technology Communications Equipment 1.82% 1.29% 36.28%
NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP NOC Industrials Aerospace & Defense 1.74% -0.21% 1.56%
WESTERN UNION CO WU Information Technology IT Services 1.64% 1.59% 2.61%
FISERV INC FISV Information Technology IT Services 1.63% 0.12% 22.27%
SERVICEMASTER GLOBAL HLDGS SERV Consumer Discretionary Diversified Consumer Services 1.3% 0.1% 16.92%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
COPART INC CPRT Industrials Commercial Services & Supplies -6.53% -20.94% 18.73%
DARDEN RESTAURANTS INC DRI Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure -3.1% -5.31% 17.92%
MOODY'S CORP MCO Financials Capital Markets -2.35% -3.91% 18.56%
ADOBE SYSTEMS INC ADBE Information Technology Software -2.07% -5.16% 38.4%
VAIL RESORTS INC MTN Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure -1.82% -4.15% 30.53%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right

Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
EDITAS MEDICINE INC EDIT Health Care Biotechnology -7.89% -7.39% -13.12%
ESPERION THERAPEUTICS INC ESPR Health Care Biotechnology -5.83% -10.63% -43.23%
HERON THERAPEUTICS INC HRTX Health Care Biotechnology -5.27% -9.85% 52.9%
IMMUNOMEDICS INC IMMU Health Care Biotechnology -4.59% -3.43% 30.14%
GLOBAL BLOOD THERAPEUTICS GBT Health Care Biotechnology -4.07% -5.62% -4.55%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
ALLAKOS INC ALLK Health Care Biotechnology 5.61% 6.98% 42.17%
ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC ACAD Health Care Biotechnology 5.4% 37.37% -41.12%
DIAMOND OFFSHRE DRILLING INC DO Energy Energy Equipment & Services 4.93% 9.71% 0.16%
AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC AAL Industrials Airlines 4.0% 9.27% -18.8%
BLOOM ENERGY CORP-REDH BE Industrials Electrical Equipment 3.08% 4.53% 21.35%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptos

  • A research report authored by Weiss Ratings, a provider of market research on stocks, ETFs, mutual funds, and cryptocurrencies, makes a bold prediction saying Bitcoin will lose half of its market share to Ethereum within five years. The research report cites that Bitcoin is a, “one trick pony” while Ethereum’s superior blockchain does not limit the cryptocurrency in any sense. After receiving some negative feedback from investors, Weiss Ratings clarified via tweet that they see an, “Ethereum-like platform dominating the market – not necessarily Ethereum itself.” 
  • According to a report by Bloomberg, Brazil’s largest independent broker, Grupo XP, is launching a cryptocurrency exchange in the coming months. Grupo XP announced this move as Brazil may be on the brink of eased cryptocurrency regulations after Brazil’s regulatory agency announced last week it is investigating the country’s largest banks for allegedly halted the service to cryptocurrency related firms. Approximately 3 million Brazilians own cryptocurrencies while just 600,000 have holdings in stocks.  
  • Cryptocurrencies and their blockchains have observed more “down-time” in 2018 than ever before. After Steemit, a blockchain-based blogging platform that pays content creator in cryptocurrencies, went down for multiple hours on September 17th, Coindesk released an article discussing the increased down-time cryptocurrencies and their blockchains have observed in 2018. Coindesk’s article details that new and innovative consensus protocols, such as varied versions of Proof of Stake, have contributed to causing increased blockchain downtimes due to experimental protocols and unforeseen issues with these experimental protocols. 
  • Ethereum developers and miners have come together to stop specialized mining hardware from operating on its network. After a new application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) was announced last Thursday, developers and mines have become vocal about ASICs effectively pushing out smaller miners from being able to operate. Members of the Ethereum community have called on developers to implement measures against ASIC mining in the Ethereum blockchain, as many believe ASICs can dominate a mining community and force decisions upon a coin.  
  • Iceland’s cryptocurrency industry may be moving away from a mining focus and moving towards a pure blockchain focus. Halldor Jorgenson, chairman of Borealis Data Center in Reykjavik, told news outlet Red Herring that demand from local cryptocurrency firms is shifting more towards pure blockchain. Iceland has become a popular area for mining due to its cold climate and cheap electricity, however, Icelandic industry experts have cited that a blockchain focus is better for the long-term future.  
  • Tom Emmer, a member of US Congress, is sponsoring a trio of blockchain-focused bills that aims to support the development and use of blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies. The first of the three bills addresses regulatory framework around cryptocurrencies and blockchain. The second bill ensures cryptocurrency miners would not be required to register as money transmitters. The third bill would protect tax payers in reporting revenue from tokens that resulted from a hardfork. Emmer’s announcement of these three bills came Friday, the same day he was named a co-chair of the Congressional Blockchain Caucus. 

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Events Calendar

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right

Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
China Internet Nationwide Financial Services Inc. CIFS 9/24/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
FactSet Research Systems Inc. FDS 9/25/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A
Jabil Inc. JBL 9/25/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Information Technology: A
NIKE, Inc. NKE 9/25/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Consumer Discretionary: B
Cintas Corporation CTAS 9/25/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Industrials: C
KB Home KBH 9/25/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: D
CarMax, Inc. KMX 9/25/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: C
Cantel Medical Corp. CMD 9/27/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
McCormick & Company, Incorporated MKC 9/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Staples: A
Solartech International Holdings Limited SEHK:1166 9/26/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
iKang Healthcare Group, Inc. KANG 9/27/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Conagra Brands, Inc. CAG 9/27/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Staples: B
Vail Resorts, Inc. MTN 9/28/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: A
Petratherm Limited PTR 9/28/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: A
Hang Seng Bank Limited SEHK:11 9/29/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C

Source: S&P Capital IQ