morning-quant-ride

Morning Brief

Wake up to the Morning Quant Ride, your global markets update every morning!

Global stocks advancing as Brent crude oil hits 4-year high and US Fed interest rate decision to come tomorrow

Sep 25, 2018

Start Your Free Trial Today

 

US Stocks

  • Global stocks are advancing this morning, ahead of tomorrow’s US Fed interest rate decision and a rebound in global oil prices 
  • It is becoming consensus that US-China trade negotiations will be a prolonged and dragged out process 
  • US stocks index futures are moving higher, pointing to a positive open in NY with the Dow Jones minis +0.28% S&P500 minis +0.24% and Nasdaq 100 minis +0.13% 
  • According to the Global Strength Indicator technical measure, the Dow Jones Index has triggered an overbought signal 
  • The US Fed starts its two-day FOMC meeting today with expectations for a 25 bps rate increase 
  • The VIX is little changed this morning and is currently at 11.84 after closing at 12.2 yesterday
  • XLF October 19 and January 2019 OTGM Puts, General Electric (GE) October 19 OTM puts and Fortive Corp (FTV) October 19 OTM Calls & Puts are the most heavily traded options contracts in the US pre-market
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 2.06 basis points to 3.1095%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.16 basis points to 0.27%
  • WTI Crude is currently up 1.81% to USD$73.08/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread down USD$-0.91 to USD$8.41/bbl
  • Global Brent crude oil prices are now at 4-year highs, holding above USD$82/bbl
  • Gold is currently little changed 0.12% to USD$1200.45/oz

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor score and financial data.

  • Aegon NV (AGN NA) announced it would see an unexpected capital boost of USD$1bn in the wake of combining two of its US businesses.  It will be merging its variable annuity captive with its Transamerica  unit to simplify its legal structure.  Aegon is trading 4% higher at 5.77 euros.  Aegon is rated ‘Top Short’ in our European Large-Cap Global Top Picks
  • Alphabet’s (GOOG.L) CEO Sundar Pichai is meeting with US lawmakers this week to discuss allegations that the internet giant censors conservative views.  The company denies the allegations made by US President Donald Trump and other well-known Republicans.  Google is currently flat in pre-market trading.  It is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Picks and “Attractive” in our US Info Tech Global Top Picks.
  • Amazon (AMZN) announced it is investing in its first homebuilder as it looks for ways to get its Alexa into more homes.  It is investing in a USD$6.7mn fundraising round for Plant Prefab, a prefabricated home builder, through its Alexa Fund which it uses to invest in startups.  Amazon is rated 'Attractive' in our US Large-Cap Global Top Picks and 'Top Buy' in our US Information Technology Global Top Picks
  • BMW (DB: BMW, ADR: BMWYY) has lowered FY guidance on increasing price pressure related to new emissions rules and escalating trade tensions.  The company now sees FY EBIT margin of 7% vs. former guidance of 8-10%.  BMW is currently down 3.83% to €80.17.  The stock is rated “Unattractive” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Picks.
  • The founders of Instagram will be leaving Facebook (FB) as they disagree with CEO Mark Zuckerberg over the direction of the business.  The 2 are said to be unhappy with Zuckerberg's greater day-to-day involvement with the company.  Facebook is rated ‘Neutral’ in our US Large-Cap Global Top Picks and ‘Attractive’ in our US Information Technology Global Top Picks 
  • Glencore (GLEN LN) raised its buyback program by USD$1bn and was “a positive surprise” as Goldman described it in a note.    The note reiterated the buy rating at 375 pence target.  Glencore is rated ‘Unattractive’ in both our European Large-Cap and United Kingdom All-Cap Global Top Picks
  • Next Plc (NXT LN) upped its profit forecast for the year by 10mn pounds, now expecting profit equal to 2017.  Next originally thought shopping would be subdued during the summer but it was not.  Next still worries about a Brexit with no deal.  Next is up 8.3% at 5552 pence.  Next is rated ‘Attractive’ in our United Kingdom All-Cap Global Top Picks
  • Novartis (NOVN SW) will cut 2000 jobs in Switzerland, 16% of it workforce, as its new CEO looks to cut costs and streamline operations.  The new CEO has a plan to narrow the focus of the company and adjust its manufacturing network.  Novartis is rated ‘Top Buy’ in our European Large-Cap Global Top Picks
  • Sony Corp’s (TSE: 6758, ADR: SNE) Playstation unit announced it will no longer be competing with Nintendo (TSE: 7974) in the handheld gaming console space.  The company announced it will only manufacture the Playstation Vita until 2019 while management’s focus will be on its flagship Playstaion 4 console.  Sony finished trading in Tokyo +3.32% to ¥6,658.  The company is rated “Neutral” in our Japan Large-Cap Global Top Picks.
  • Starbucks (SBUX) announced yesterday that it is planning an organizational shake-up and expects to see layoffs at the corporate level.  The company currently employs 10,000 people in the United States. Starbucks is currently little changed in pre-market trading.  The stock is rated “Attractive” in both our US Large-Cap and US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Picks.

European Stocks

  • European stocks are edging higher this AM, strengthening throughout the trading session bouncing off a weak open 
  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently up +0.51%, the FTSE 100 is higher by +0.43%, the DAX has advanced +0.34%, and the CAC 40 has risen +0.35%
  • Reuters is reporting that the Italian coalition government is set to meet the EU’s budget deficit target of 3% of GDP
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 1.88x
  • Oil & Gas (+1.7%), Telecommunications (+0.19%), and Basic Resources (+1.37%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Automobiles & Parts (+0.12%), Food & Beverage (0%), and Utilities (+0.18%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • 56 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 60 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 27 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 24 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is little changed this morning and is currently at 13.2 after closing at 13.73 yesterday
  • German 10-Year Bunds are lower with yields up 2.9 basis points to 0.539%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are lower with yields up 2.6 basis points to 1.639%

Asian Stocks

  • Asian stocks finished mixed overnight, with Japanese stocks opening the week positive after the Fall Equinox holiday while Chinese stocks dropped over concerns over an escalation in US-China trade tensions 
  • Hong Kong markets were closed for the Fall Equinox holiday
  • The Nikkei 225 finished up +0.29%, the Hang Seng ended down -1.62%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise declined -1.81%, and the CSI 300 was -0.9%
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 2.46x
  • 131 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 2 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 78 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 1 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are flat with yields little changed 0 basis points to 0.133%
  • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.3 basis points to 0.24%
  • JPY¥ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 112.87

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right.

Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Alphabet Inc 1199 8.43 0 4 0.0% 0.13%
Netflix Inc 878 8.86 -4 -18 0.1% 0.79%
Comcast Corp 678 8.57 2 11 0.31% 4.85%
Microsoft Corp 629 6.71 3 29 0.16% 7.11%
Ford Motor Co 531 7.71 -1 -18 -0.75% -9.74%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right.

Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Costco Wholesale Corp 47 9.14 7 11 0.11% 0.48%
Accenture PLC 72 9.14 2 17 -0.23% 2.47%
Walmart Inc 325 8.86 -2 0 -1.82% -3.26%
International Business Machines Corp 241 8.86 1 -3 0.19% 0.58%
QUALCOMM Inc 135 8.86 4 19 0.66% 18.75%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right.

ETF 30D IV 30D IV
Percentile
90D IV 90D IV
Percentile
90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV
Percentile
30D IV-
20D HV
30D IV-20D HV
Percentile
90D IV-
60D HV
90D IV-60D HV
Percentile
SPY 8.86 41.27% 11.68 61.9% 1.32 92.06% 2.34 71.03% 4.45 93.25%
QQQ 14.82 57.54% 16.03 59.13% 1.08 52.98% 2.77 65.08% 3.64 81.35%
IWM 12.17 32.94% 12.46 5.16% 1.02 19.25% 5.18 94.25% 2.73 55.56%
FEZ 13.83 62.3% 14.08 58.13% 1.02 30.56% -0.94 32.94% -0.87 29.17%
EEM 17.98 69.44% 18.63 70.24% 1.04 47.02% 0.18 46.83% 0.13 40.48%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right

Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
ABBOTT LABORATORIES ABT Health Care Health Care Equipment & Supplies 3.4% 5.42% 20.88%
LIGAND PHARMACEUTICAL INC LGND Health Care Biotechnology 3.22% 5.62% 66.04%
DISNEY (WALT) CO DIS Consumer Discretionary Media 2.12% 3.07% 1.66%
FORTINET INC FTNT Information Technology Software 2.05% -1.05% 67.67%
WEX INC WEX Information Technology IT Services 1.54% 2.6% 32.91%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
COMCAST CORP CMCSA Consumer Discretionary Media -6.18% -3.66% -13.08%
COPART INC CPRT Industrials Commercial Services & Supplies -2.23% -21.46% 16.5%
HOME DEPOT INC HD Consumer Discretionary Specialty Retail -2.09% -0.2% 11.72%
FASTENAL CO FAST Industrials Trading Companies & Distributors -2.06% -0.02% 7.74%
CULLEN/FROST BANKERS INC CFR Financials Banks -1.97% -0.38% 13.66%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right

Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
GULFPORT ENERGY CORP GPOR Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -5.96% 3.86% -17.96%
HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS INC HTZ Industrials Road & Rail -4.89% -7.22% -28.52%
FITBIT INC FIT Information Technology Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components -4.83% 3.78% -6.0%
ARRAY BIOPHARMA INC ARRY Health Care Biotechnology -3.86% 6.96% 8.28%
AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC AAL Industrials Airlines -3.79% 4.03% -22.59%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
CALIFORNIA RESOURCES CORP CRC Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 16.23% 23.57% 84.59%
MADRIGAL PHARMACEUTICALS INC MDGL Health Care Biotechnology 7.19% -0.57% 84.65%
WHITING PETROLEUM CORP WLL Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 5.19% 7.85% 62.28%
OASIS PETROLEUM INC OAS Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 5.18% 11.14% 46.62%
CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORP CHK Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 5.05% 15.99% 13.02%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptos

  • A study, titled, “Crypto Asset Market Coverage Initiation: Trading & Custody” projects that digital currency trading volume will grow by 50% in 2019. The study, conducted by Satis Group, also forecasts an overall Compound Annual Growth Rate of 9% through 2028 in crypto trading volume. The study points out that 75% of current crypto trading volume takes place on the top 20 crypto exchanges.  
  • Gemini, the New York-based cryptocurrency exchange owned by the Winklevoss Twins, reportedly has plans to enter the UK market. According to the Financial Times, Gemini has begun to hire consultants for the expansion project. The move to the UK would put Gemini in direct competition with Coinbase and Bithumb, two other US crypto exchange giants with operations in the UK.  
  • Luxembourg-based cryptocurrency wallet provider, Blockchain, announced Thursday that it has filed a lawsuit against Blockchain.io just days before Blockchain.io is set to launch an initial coin offering (ICO). The lawsuit surrounds Blockchain.io’s similar name to Blockchain, citing concerns that investors may think they are buying tokens distributed by the crypto wallet, Blockchain.  
  • SBI Holdings, the investment arm of financial giant, SBI Group, announced that it is testing a crypto token that would be used for retail payments through mobile devices. The token, dubbed “S coin”, is one based on distributed ledger technology and would allow users to carry out cash free transactions in retail environments. S coin is currently being tested by SBI’s employees at cafes and restaurants around SBI’s headquarters in Tokyo.  
  • The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) has issued a new report outlining that cryptocurrencies, at the moment, do not pose a risk to global financial stability. The report directly contradicts a statement made earlier this year by the head of BIS, Agustin Carstens, when he called Bitcoin a, “combination of a bubble, a Ponzi scheme, and an environmental disaster.”

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Events Calendar

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right

 
Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
FactSet Research Systems Inc. FDS 9/25/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A
Jabil Inc. JBL 9/25/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Information Technology: A
NIKE, Inc. NKE 9/25/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Consumer Discretionary: B
Cintas Corporation CTAS 9/25/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Industrials: C
KB Home KBH 9/25/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: D
CarMax, Inc. KMX 9/25/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: C
Cantel Medical Corp. CMD 9/27/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
McCormick & Company, Incorporated MKC 9/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Staples: A
Solartech International Holdings Limited SEHK:1166 9/26/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
iKang Healthcare Group, Inc. KANG 9/27/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Conagra Brands, Inc. CAG 9/27/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Staples: B
Vail Resorts, Inc. MTN 9/28/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: A
Petratherm Limited PTR 9/28/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: A
Hang Seng Bank Limited SEHK:11 9/29/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C

Source: S&P Capital IQ