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Global Stocks are edging higher ahead of US Fed interest rate decision

Sep 26, 2018

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US Stocks

  • Global stocks are inching higher this AM, ahead of today’s US Fed interest rate decision 
  • US stocks index futures are edging higher, pointing to a positive open in NY with the Dow Jones minis +0.19% S&P500 minis +0.20% and Nasdaq 100 minis +0.23% 
  • The US Fed will release its decision on interest rates this afternoon at the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting 
  • Trade officials in Beijing will lower import tariffs on goods, including machinery, paper, textiles and construction materials starting on November 1 in an attempt to lower costs to consumers and Chinese companies 
  • MSCI is considering increasing the weighting of Chinese mega-cap companies in its global indices and adding Chinese Mid-Cap stocks to some select indices in CY2019 – the change would lead to an additional USD$66bn in flows to Chinese mainland stocks 
  • The VIX is currently little changed at 12.09 from yesterday's close of 12.42
  • EEM September 28 OTM Calls, Fortive Corp (FTV) October 19 OTM Calls & Puts, EFA October 5 OTM Calls, and General Electric (GE) June 2019 OTM Calls are the most heavily traded options contracts in the US pre-market
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are higher with yields down -1.49 basis points to 3.0815%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.68 basis points to 0.25%
  • WTI Crude is currently down -0.68% to USD$72.58/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread up USD$0.72 to USD$8.66/bbl
  • Gold is currently little changed -0.24% to USD$1198.31/oz
  • Even with today’s pullback, global oil prices are poised to have their fifth straight month of gains

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor score and financial data.

  • AA Plc (AA LN) dropped 12% to 105.10 pence after reporting that winter weather caused a “pothole epidemic” that saw it receive the most calls for breakdowns in 15 years.  It reported adjusted earnings down 36% y/y.  AA is rated ‘Neutral’ is our United Kingdom All-Cap Global Top Picks 
  • Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) announced intentions to acquire Syntimmune for up to USD$1.2bn in an all-cash deal.  Alexion will make an upfront payment of USD$400mm with the potential for a milestones payment of USD$800mm.  Alexion is not trading in the pre-market.  Alexion is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Picks.
  • Brooks Automation (BRKS) will acquire Genewiz Group for about USD$450mn.  Brooks said the deal will add to adjusted earnings immediately and it will fund the purchase with cash on its balance sheet and some debt.  Brooks is rated "Attractive' in our US Large-cap Global Top Picks and 'Neutral' in our US Information Technology Global Top Picks
  • CBS Corp (CBS) named the ex-head of Time Warner Richard Parsons as interim chairman.  Mr Parsons was recently nominated to the board and was unanimously voted as interim chairman.  CBS is rated ‘Neutral’ in our US Large-Cap Global Top Picks and ‘Attractive’ in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Picks
  • Daimler (DAI GR) named its first non-German CEO as its present CEO Zetsche will step down in 2019.  The change is happening 2 years earlier that originally planned as Daimler looks to speed up its management changes.  The stock is down 1.2% at 54.05 euros.  Daimler is rated ‘Unattractive’ in our European Large-Cap Global Top Picks
  • Deutsche Bank (DBK GR) CEO said 3Q results should come in line with current consensus.    He said he is “broadly comfortable” with consensus of 327mn euros for pretax profit.  Deutsche is rated ‘Unattractive’ in our European Large-Cap Global Top Picks
  • Dunkin Brands (DNKN) will formally drop “Donuts” from its Dunkin Donuts stores starting in January.  After 68 years, it has decided it needs a shorter name as over 60% of its sales comes from beverages.  Dunkin is rated ‘Neutral’ in our US Large-Cap Global Top Picks and ‘Top Buy’ in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Picks
  • Elementis (ELM LN) reported that its Castle Hayne plant has been temporarily shut down due to hurricane Florence.  Management said there will be an impact on 2018 earnings though it should be modest.  Elementis is flat at 267 pence and is not rated in our Global Top Picks
  • IBM (IBM) has been upgraded to “BUY” with a price target of USD$180 at UBS.  At the moment, IBM is up 1.6% to USD$151.31.  The stock is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Picks and “Attractive” in our US Info Tech Global Top Picks.
  • International Airline Group (IAG LN) was downgraded at UBS to neutral from buy with its target cut to 705 pence from 780.  UBS cited fuel price pressures and greater industry capacity in its downgrade.  IAG is rated ‘Attractive’ in our European Large-Cap and United Kingdom All-Cap Global Top Picks
  • Nike (NKE) reported 3Q results that were generally in line though gross margin missed slightly, coming at 44.2% versus 44.3% expected.  Nike fell 3.5% in after-hours trading touching $82.  Nike is rated ‘Unattractive’ in our US Large-Cap Global Top Picks and ‘Attractive’ in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Picks
  • Sirtex Medical Ltd’s former CEO Edwin Wong was charged with insider trader by Australia’s security regulator.  It is alleged he was in possession of material information when he sold stock in October 2016.  Sirtex was acquired by China Grand Pharmaceutical (512) which traded down 3% to HKD$5.21.  China Grand is rated ‘Top Buy’ in our China All-Cap Global Top Picks

European Stocks

  • European stocks are little changed this morning, ahead of the US Fed decision later today 
  • BMW (BMW GR) is down another 1.89% to €77.49 after giving negative guidance yesterday
  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently up +0.02%, the FTSE 100 is higher by +0.11%, the DAX has fallen -0.13%, and the CAC 40 has risen +0.27%
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 0.86x
  • Food & Beverage (+0.54%), Insurance (+0.41%), and Real Estate (+0.38%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Automobiles & Parts (-1.22%), Basic Resources (-0.6%), and Technology (-0.41%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • 78 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 46 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 38 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 19 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is little changed this morning and is currently at 13.04 after closing at 13.16 yesterday
  • EUR€ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.1757
  • GBP£ is currently down -0.265% against the USD$ to 1.3149
  • CHF is currently down -0.299% against the USD$ to 1.0331
  • German 10-Year Bunds are higher with yields down -0.7 basis points to 0.536%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are higher with yields down -2.6 basis points to 1.606%

Asian Stocks

  • Asian stocks finished their trading sessions positive, after volatile trading sessions across the region 
  • Japanese stocks bounced back from a negative open and the Yen weakened ahead of the US Fed decision today
  • Chinese stocks rallied on the MSCI news mentioned above and on Chinese intentions to lower tariffs on imports of selected consumer goods -- approximately 14% of Chinese imports consist of consumer goods  
  • Reuters is reporting that foreign holdings of A-Shares has increased, even in the face of the current trade dispute between China and the US -- large asset management firms in the US and Europe continue to see “value” in the Chinese stock market as officials in Beijing continue to pursue policies that are opening up domestic capital markets
  • The Nikkei 225 finished up +0.39%, the Hang Seng ended up +1.15%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise up +1.46%, and the CSI 300 was +1.11%
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 0.89x
  • 125 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 2 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 85 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 0 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 3.55x
  • 2 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 1 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 0 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 0 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are higher with yields down -0.7 basis points to 0.126%
  • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.2 basis points to 0.23%
  • JPY¥ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 112.92

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Alphabet Inc 1467 8.57 0 5 2.49% 0.13%
Netflix Inc 923 8.29 -4 -18 0.1% 0.86%
Comcast Corp 847 7.86 2 11 0.31% 4.85%
Microsoft Corp 686 6 3 29 0.16% 7.11%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc 595 6.71 -6 22 -0.41% 7.18%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Costco Wholesale Corp 51 9 7 11 0.11% 0.48%
QUALCOMM Inc 177 8.86 4 19 -0.29% 17.64%
International Business Machines Corp 282 8.86 1 -3 0.19% 0.58%
Accenture PLC 80 8.71 2 17 -0.23% 2.5%
Starbucks Corp 160 8.57 -11 -9 -1.31% 1.17%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

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ETF 30D IV 30D IV
Percentile
90D IV 90D IV
Percentile
90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV
Percentile
30D IV-
20D HV
30D IV-20D HV
Percentile
90D IV-
60D HV
90D IV-60D HV
Percentile
SPY 8.82 39.68% 11.82 64.29% 1.34 93.65% 2.85 82.54% 4.57 93.65%
QQQ 14.18 48.81% 16.53 64.68% 1.17 86.31% 2.66 64.29% 4.15 90.48%
IWM 11.71 19.25% 13.21 23.41% 1.13 81.75% 4.72 89.29% 3.49 72.42%
FEZ 13.28 58.33% 13.87 54.96% 1.04 37.3% -0.7 34.13% -0.91 28.57%
EEM 17.92 67.86% 19.33 77.78% 1.08 67.86% 0.87 50.0% 1.07 50.99%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP NOC Industrials Aerospace & Defense 2.68% -1.02% 4.04%
FORTINET INC FTNT Information Technology Software 2.56% 1.21% 70.22%
FLEETCOR TECHNOLOGIES INC FLT Information Technology IT Services 1.65% 2.1% 15.2%
VAIL RESORTS INC MTN Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 1.57% -1.16% 32.89%
WEX INC WEX Information Technology IT Services 1.56% 2.51% 34.47%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
BERRY GLOBAL GROUP INC BERY Materials Containers & Packaging -4.73% -6.38% -22.0%
NASDAQ INC NDAQ Financials Capital Markets -2.49% -2.71% 14.72%
JEFFERIES FINANCIAL GRP INC JEF Financials Diversified Financial Services -2.14% -1.66% -15.18%
OGE ENERGY CORP OGE Utilities Electric Utilities -2.02% -3.62% 12.14%
HUMANA INC HUM Health Care Health Care Providers & Services -2.01% -0.65% 28.61%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
AVALARA INC AVLR Information Technology Software -5.94% -12.09% -13.37%
FOCUS FINANCL PRTNR LLC-REDH FOCS Financials Capital Markets -4.26% -0.84% 21.12%
GENERAL ELECTRIC CO GE Industrials Industrial Conglomerates -4.09% -11.63% -44.06%
QORVO INC QRVO Information Technology Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment -2.84% 1.6% 10.17%
AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC AAL Industrials Airlines -2.83% 0.05% -25.42%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC ACAD Health Care Biotechnology 7.57% 40.5% -35.16%
TANDEM DIABETES CARE INC TNDM Health Care Health Care Equipment & Supplies 7.17% 12.17% 293.57%
EDITAS MEDICINE INC EDIT Health Care Biotechnology 6.4% -0.76% -5.23%
BLOOM ENERGY CORP-REDH BE Industrials Electrical Equipment 5.52% 13.02% 30.98%
SANGAMO THERAPEUTICS INC SGMO Health Care Biotechnology 3.67% 9.11% -5.26%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptos

  • According to a study by McAfee Labs, cryptocurrency mining malware attacks surged 86% in the second quarter of this year. The majority of attacks have been aimed at personal computers, but cryptojackers have begun to turn their attention more towards smartphones and other gadgets with internet connection. McAfee Labs notes that while crypto mining malware attacks have spiked, ransomware attacks have fallen 30% in the second quarter of 2018.  
  • Coinbase announced Tuesday that it is launching a new policy for listing new cryptocurrencies with hopes of expanding the range of assets traded on its exchange. Coinbase will replace their ad hoc review process for new coins with an online evaluation form that should streamline the process. Coinbase will also restrict certain coins from certain areas depending on which criteria they meet and do not meet in order to comply with different regions’ legal requirements.  
  • Monero (XMR) developers have patched a bug that could have allowed an attacker to “burn” funds in a user’s wallet while only sacrificing network transaction fees. The bug was discovered after users on the XMR subreddit were discussing a hypothetical attack. Monero developers have urged exchanges, merchants, and other relevant individuals or organizations to apply a new software patch. 
  • SBI Ripple Asia, a joint venture between SBI Holdings and Ripple, announced today that it has completed registration with the Kantou bureau of Japan’s Ministry of Finance to serve as a licensed agent for handling electronic payments. The new license for SBI Ripple Asia will allow the joint venture to roll out its MoneyTap payments app geared towards facilitating peer-to-peer payments for retail users over a distributed ledger. SBI Ripple Asia will initially launch MoneyTap in partnership with three domestic Japanese banks but hopes to expand to over 60 financial institutions. 

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Events Calendar

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Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
McCormick & Company, Incorporated MKC 9/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Staples: A
Solartech International Holdings Limited SEHK:1166 9/26/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
iKang Healthcare Group, Inc. KANG 9/27/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Conagra Brands, Inc. CAG 9/27/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Staples: B
Carnival Corporation CCL 9/27/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Discretionary: B
Cantel Medical Corp. CMD 9/27/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
Vail Resorts, Inc. MTN 9/28/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: A
Petratherm Limited PTR 9/28/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: A
Santana Minerals Limited SMI 9/28/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Hang Seng Bank Limited SEHK:11 9/29/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Stitch Fix, Inc. SFIX 10/1/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F
PepsiCo, Inc. PEP 10/2/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Staples: C
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. LW 10/2/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Staples: C
Paychex, Inc. PAYX 10/2/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Information Technology: B
Acuity Brands, Inc. AYI 10/2/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Industrials: D

Source: S&P Capital IQ