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Earnings season dominating investor sentiment with stocks edging up

Oct 16, 2018

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US Stocks

  • Global stocks are advancing this AM as earnings results are dominating headlines (and investor sentiment) 
  • US stocks index futures are rising ahead of the open in NY with the Dow Jones minis +0.44%, S&P500 minis +0.43% and Nasdaq 100 minis +0.62% 
  • Earnings growth for C3Q2018, according to Thomson Reuters, is expected to be ~21.7% for the S&P500 
  • In comparison to the S&P500, Thomson Reuters forecasts +18.6% earnings growth for the Russell 2000 in C3Q2018
  • The VIX is  moving down this morning and is currently at 20.08 after closing at 21.3 yesterday
  • Bank of America (BAC) October 19 & January 2019 OTM Calls, IWM December 2018 OTM Calls, SPY October 19 & November 16 OTM Puts, and Petrobras (BOVESPA:PETR4; ADR: PBR) are the most heavily traded options contracts in the US pre-market
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 1.52 basis points to 3.169%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has widened 0.47 basis points to 0.3%
  • WTI Crude is currently up 0.62% to USD$71.78/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread down USD$-1.59 to USD$8.48/bbl
  • Gold is currently little changed 0.2% to USD$1229.52/oz
  • Oil prices are dropping ahead of the release of US inventory data for last week at 10:30am today 

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor score and financial data.
 

  • BlackRock (BLK) reports 3Q results above the highest expectations, reporting 3Q adjusted EPS of USD$7.52 versus USD$6.84 consensus.  BlackRock revenue came at USD$3.58bn vs USD$3.54bn expected.  BlackRock’s iShraes ETF unit saw USD$33.67bn of inflows compared with USD$17.81 last quarter.  BlackRock is trading slightly higher in pre-market trading.  BlackRock is rated ‘Top Buy’ in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Comerica (CMA) beat estimates for 3Q, beating expectations with EPS of USD$1.86 versus consensus of USD$1.86 while consensus was for USD$1.77.   Comerica sees 4Q loans stable with positive growth going into the end of the year.  Comerica is rated ‘Attractive’ in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Goldman Sachs (GS) reports earnings that beat estimates after investing banking revenues beat Street forecasts.  Fixed income sales and trading results came in below expectations.  Goldman Sachs states that gains from IPO issuances offset weak debt underwriting.  Bottom-line results were 16.7% ahead of forecasted EPS for the quarter.  Goldman Sachs is currently up 1.0% in pre-market trading.  Goldman Sachs is rated “Neutral” In our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Kion Corp (KGX GR) is trading 9.6% higher at 49.39 euros after UBS upgraded the stock.  Kion was upgraded to buy from neutral saying its 42% fall since April is overdone.  Kion should deliver strong 3Q results allaying investors’ fears.  Kion is rated ‘Neural’ in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) increased full year guidance, now expecting sales of USD$81-81.4bn, up from USD$80.5-81.3bn.  Johnson & Johnson now expects full year EPS of USD$8.13-8.18, up from USD$8.07-8.17.  For 3Q, Johnson & Johnson expects EPS of USD$1.97-2.07.  Johnson & Johnson is rated ‘Attractive’ in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Morgan Stanley (MS) reports strong 3Q earnings and is the only Wall Street bank to report an increase of revenue in stocks, fixed income and investment banking.  Morgan Stanley sees a 15% increase in its investment banking revenue compared with a fall for all other players.  Morgan Stanley reports USD$1.17 net income while consensus was for USD$1.01.  Morgan Stanley is rated ‘Unattractive’ in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • MTR Corp (66 HK) closed 0.52% lower after 4 trains lines in Hong Kong simultaneously has signal problems.  MTR operates the rail system in Hong Kong and the snafu caused chaos, with MTR Corp having to operate the 4 lines manually, causing massive delays in the city.  MTR Corp is rated ‘Attractive’ in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • United Health Group (UNH) raised its outlook for the full year.  United Health Group expects full year adjusted EPS of USD$12.80 while preciously expecting USD$12.50-12.75.  Market consensus for United Health Group is USD$12.70.  United Health Group reported 3Q adjusted EPS of USD$3.41, above consensus of USD$3.29.  United Health Group is rated ‘Top Buy’ in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Volvo AB (VOLVB SS) reports problems with degradation of part of the emissions system on its trucks, causing the emissions system to exceed emissions limits.  Volvo has begun informing customers of the problems.  Volvo has said the cost to remedy the problems “could be material”.   Volvo AB is rated ‘Top Buy’ in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Volkswagen’s (VOW GR) Audi Group was fined 800mn euros by the Munich prosecutor related to “deviation from regulatory requirements” with some of its V6 and V8 diesels engines.  Volkswagen said the fin will “directly affect” 2018 financial guidance of the group.  Volkswagen is rated ‘Neural’ in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Walmart (WMT) expects fiscal year 2020 US sales growth ex-gas of 2.5-3% while present consensus is 2.5%.  Walmart expects total sales to grow more than 3% in fiscal 2020.  Walmart sees e-commerce growth of ~35% while present consensus is for ~40% growth.  Walmart is rated ‘Neutral’ in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and ‘Attractive’ in our US consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Whitehaven Coal (WHC AU) closed 1.5% higher at AUD$5.48 after earning an upgrade from Morgans Financial.  Whitehaven Coal saw its price target raised to AUD$6 from AUD$5.38, highlighting strong fundamentals that should drive the stock.  Whitehaven Coal is rated ‘Attractive’ in our Australia Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.

European Stocks

  • European stocks are edging up this morning following news that that the Italian coalition government reached an agreement on a budget plan with a target deficit of 2.4% for CY2019
  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently up +0.63%, the FTSE 100 has declined -0.27%, the DAX has advanced +0.38%, and the CAC 40 has risen +0.26%
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 3.92x
  • Automobiles & Parts (+1.62%), Real Estate (+1.55%), and Industrial Goods & Services (+1.41%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Oil & Gas (-0.79%), Retail (-0.53%), and Basic Resources (-0.19%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • 5 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 249 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 5 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 259 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is  moving down this morning and is currently at 17.76 after closing at 19.07 yesterday
  • EUR€ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.158
  • GBP£ is currently up +0.57% against the USD$ to 1.3227
  • CHF is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.0123
  • German 10-Year Bunds are lower with yields up 0.1 basis points to 0.504%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are lower with yields up 1.4 basis points to 1.624%

Asian Stocks

  • Asian stocks flip flopped between positive and negative before generally closing positive 
  • The Nikkei 225 finished up +1.25%, the Hang Seng ended up +0.07%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise up +0.53%, and the CSI 300 was -0.81%
  • Volumes in Hong Kong were light, 20% below the 20-day moving average ahead of the Cheung Yeung Festival holiday tomorrow. 
  • Stocks in Shanghai reversed gains to finish in the red following economic data that points to potential cooling in domestic demand
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 6.03x
  • 0 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 78 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 0 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 12 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 1.5x
  • 2 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 13 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 0 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 8 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are lower with yields up 0.4 basis points to 0.148%
  • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has widened 0.3 basis points to 0.26%
  • JPY¥ is currently up +0.242% against the USD$ to 112.04

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

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Name 7 Day News Volume 7 Day Average News Buzz 1M EPS Net Revisions 3M EPS Net Revisions 1M EPS % Chg 3M EPS % Chg
Alphabet Inc 1455 6.57 -2 -2 -0.22% -0.18%
Microsoft Corp 1337 7.57 5 30 -0.13% 7.47%
Netflix Inc 1014 7.57 -3 -19 -2.11% -11.68%
Citigroup Inc 762 5.57 1 5 5.17% 5.42%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The 744 7.43 -2 24 -1.22% 5.5%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

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Name 7 Day News Volume 7 Day Average News Buzz 1M EPS Net Revisions 3M EPS Net Revisions 1M EPS % Chg 3M EPS % Chg
Visa Inc 439 9.14 4 26 0.07% 5.35%
Lockheed Martin Corp 168 9 0 14 0.09% 10.59%
Walt Disney Co/The 299 8.29 -3 -18 -0.61% 0.99%
Bank of America Corp 549 8 -13 14 1.92% 2.34%
Medtronic PLC 189 8 3 4 -0.03% 1.94%

 

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

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ETF 30D IV 30D IV Percentile 90D IV 90D IV Percentile 90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV Percentile 30D IV-20D HV 30D IV-20D HV Percentile 90D IV-60D HV 90D IV-60D HV Percentile
SPY 17.96 96.43% 16.04 92.46% 0.89 2.78% 2.75 76.79% 5.37 96.43%
QQQ 22.74 94.44% 20.24 92.46% 0.89 4.17% 0.84 46.03% 4.12 87.7%
IWM 20.86 97.62% 18.73 96.83% 0.9 2.78% 6.29 98.02% 6.41 98.41%
FEZ 19.89 96.43% 17.83 94.84% 0.9 7.34% 5.84 94.44% 3.02 69.84%
EEM 23.81 96.03% 22.2 96.43% 0.93 4.37% 3.18 80.75% 2.5 68.65%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

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WINNERS TICKER SECTOR INDUSTRY 1 DAY RETURN 5 DAY RETURN YTD
NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP NXST Consumer Discretionary Media 1.77% -6.57% -0.53%
CHURCH & DWIGHT INC CHD Consumer Staples Household Products 1.73% -4.71% 15.64%
SUN COMMUNITIES INC SUI Real Estate Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) 1.66% -3.45% 8.03%
WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE INC WBA Consumer Staples Food & Staples Retailing 1.65% 0.77% 1.51%
DUNKIN' BRANDS GROUP INC DNKN Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 1.6% 2.25% 12.57%

 

LOSERS TICKER SECTOR INDUSTRY 1 DAY RETURN 5 DAY RETURN YTD
ADOBE SYSTEMS INC ADBE Information Technology Software -4.46% -6.77% 29.22%
BLACKBAUD INC BLKB Information Technology Software -2.79% -22.27% -26.59%
VISA INC V Information Technology IT Services -2.04% -3.34% 18.58%
COSTAR GROUP INC CSGP Industrials Professional Services -2.01% -1.18% 24.87%
MASTERCARD INC MA Information Technology IT Services -1.93% -3.89% 28.21%

 

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

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WINNERS TICKER SECTOR INDUSTRY 1 DAY RETURN 5 DAY RETURN YTD
CARVANA CO CVNA Consumer Discretionary Specialty Retail -7.18% -18.77% 86.88%
IMMUNOMEDICS INC IMMU Health Care Biotechnology -5.49% 1.04% 23.86%
PENNEY (J C) CO JCP Consumer Discretionary Multiline Retail -4.65% 1.2% -73.4%
PBF ENERGY INC PBF Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -4.0% -7.98% 31.87%
PUMA BIOTECHNOLOGY INC PBYI Health Care Biotechnology -3.99% -9.9% -81.48%

 

LOSERS TICKER SECTOR INDUSTRY 1 DAY RETURN 5 DAY RETURN YTD
RANGE RESOURCES CORP RRC Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 5.17% -1.46% -1.13%
SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY CO SWN Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 4.75% -0.53% -5.39%
FITBIT INC FIT Information Technology Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components 4.65% -4.64% -21.65%
CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORP CHK Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 3.32% -1.51% 11.51%
FINISAR CORP FNSR Information Technology Communications Equipment 3.17% -3.36% -20.4%

Cryptos

  • Notable investor and creator of Galaxy Investment Partners, Mike Novogratz, has pulled back his forecast for Bitcoin, telling Bloomberg on Monday that he does not believe Bitcoin will surpass USD$10,000 in 2018. In explaining his forecast, Novogratz said, “I think Q1 [or] Q2 [2019] if the institutions start coming in, we’ll put in new highs.” Novogratz happened to be speaking while Fidelity Investments announced the creation of a new venture, Fidelity Digital Asset Services. In regards to Fidelity, Novogratz said, “They’ll probably be up and running in January or Q1.” 
  • Peer-to-peer Bitcoin trading volume levels in Argentina, Venezuela, and Egypt have hit all-time high levels so far through October 2018. In Argentina, citizens have flocked to use Bitcoin as a result of the recent economic crisis in the country -- Argentinian regulators have even relaxed regulations to allow for more Bitcoin ATMs in the country. In Venezuela, citizens have been gearing up for the November 5th launch of the state-backed Petro cryptocurrency, although reports indicate that there is little pointing to the Petro’s existence in the country. Meanwhile, Bitcoin transaction volumes in Croatia and Switzerland have hit 2018 lows.  
  • While speaking at the Institutional Crypto: Laying the Foundation conference in New York City hosted by Bloomberg, Gary Gensler, former chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, said that most cryptocurrencies sold through initial coin offering (ICO) should be classified as securities. Gensler went on to say, “I think cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin need more protection, and probably more protection than even the oil markets.” When asked about blockchain technology, Gensler replied, “we should be technology-neutral.”

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Events Calendar

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Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
Johnson & Johnson JNJ 10/16/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
Morgan Stanley MS 10/16/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Prologis, Inc. PLD 10/16/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Comerica Incorporated CMA 10/16/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
W.W. Grainger, Inc. GWW 10/16/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Industrials: C
Omnicom Group Inc. OMC 10/16/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: B
BlackRock, Inc. BLK 10/16/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated UNH 10/16/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A
First Horizon National Corporation FHN 10/16/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. GS 10/16/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Domino's Pizza, Inc. DPZ 10/16/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Discretionary: A
Sonic Corp. SONC 10/16/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: A
CSX Corporation CSX 10/16/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Industrials: B
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. IBKR 10/16/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
International Business Machines Corporation IBM 10/16/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Information Technology: C
Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. PNFP 10/16/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: --
Healthcare Services Group, Inc. HCSG 10/16/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Industrials: C
PacWest Bancorp PACW 10/16/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
United Continental Holdings, Inc. UAL 10/16/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Industrials: C
Kinder Morgan, Inc. KMI 10/16/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C

Source: S&P Capital IQ