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Stocks shrugging off weaker than expected China GDP as earnings remain in focus

Oct 19, 2018

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US Stocks

  • Global stocks are edging up this morning, shrugging off a deceleration in Chinese economic growth while European stocks are in the red following profit warnings from large-cap stocks like Michelin  
  • US stocks index futures are off their earlier AM highs but are still pointing to gains on the open in NY with the Dow Jones minis +0.28%, S&P500 minis +0.23% and Nasdaq 100 minis +0.44% 
  • The VIX is little changed this morning and is currently at 19.59 after closing at 20.06 yesterday
  • General Electric (GE) November 16 & January 2019 OTM Puts, SPY October 19 OTM Puts, and Bank of America (BAC) October 19 OTM Calls & Puts are the most heavily traded options contracts in the US pre-market
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are higher with yields down -0.17 basis points to 3.1769%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.21 basis points to 0.3%
  • WTI Crude is currently down -1.58% to USD$68.65/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread up USD$2.35 to USD$11.33/bbl
  • Gold is currently little changed 0.17% to USD$1227.91/oz
  • Global oil prices are on pace to post losses this week as an increase in US inventories (more than 2x what was forecasted) outweighed worries about rising tensions between the US and Saudi Arabia. Global oil prices are on pace to post losses this week as an increase in US inventories (more than 2x what was forecasted) outweighed worries about rising tensions between the US and Saudi Arabia

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor score and financial data.
 

  • American Express (AXP) beat on 3Q results and upped full year guidance.  American Express reported 3Q EPS of USD$1.88, a touch above consensus with revenue of USD$10.14 billion versus USD$10.07 billion consensus.  American Express hiked full-year EPS guidance to USD$7.30-7.40 from USD$6.90-7.30.  American Express is rated ‘Neutral’ in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Apple (AAPL) will unveil new products on October 30th in Brooklyn according to a press release.  Apple will likely unveil new iPads and Mac computers, analysts have commented.  Apple will probably release an updated iPad Pro, a lower cost MacBook laptop, and new Mac mini desktop.   Apple is rated ‘Top Buy’ in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and rated ‘Attractive’ in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Citizens Financial Group (CFG) reported 3Q results that beat expectations.  Citizens Financial Group 3Q adjusted EPS came at 93 cents, above 90 expected.   Citizens Financial Group saw 3Q revenue of USD$1.56 billion, matching estimates with USD$416mm of non-interest income.   Net charge-off for Citizens Financial Group came at USD$86mm, a touch above USD$82.9nm expected.  Citizens Financial Group is rated ‘Attractive’  in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Honeywell (HON) delivered 3Q sales of USD$10.76 billion matching consensus.  Honeywell saw 3Q EPS come at USD$3.11, also matching consensus.  Honeywell lowered full-year guidance on revenue to USD$41.7-41.8 billion, down from USD$43.1-43.6 billion.  Honeywell is rated ‘Neutral’ in our US Large-Cap and US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG LN) delivered 3Q results below expectations, with softer revenue trends.  InterContinental Hotels Group saw comparable RevPAR growth of 1%, below consensus with year to date RevPAR growth of 2.7%.  InterContinental Hotels Group announced it is returning USD$500mm to shareholders via a special dividend.  InterContinental Hotels Group is rated ‘Attractive’ in our United Kingdom All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Michelin (ML FP) is falling 7.6% at 91.83 euros after issuing a warning about declining volumes in Europe and China.  Michelin said new emissions rules in Europe and slow car sales in China, dampening its sales outlook.  Michelin expects sales to fall in the second half of the year given those developments.   Michelin beat 3Q expectations, but all focus is on its sales warning.  Michelin is rated ‘Unattractive’ in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • PayPal (PYPL) reported 3Q results that exceeded analysts’ expectations.  PayPal reported adjusted EPS of 58 cents, beating the 54 cents consensus.  PayPal hiked 4Q revenue expectation to USD$4.2-4.28 billion, matching consensus estimates.  PayPal also said it is making progress on monetizing its Venmo mobile payment service.  PayPal is trading 9.5% higher in extended trading at $82.50.  PayPal is rated ‘Unattractive’ in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Schlumberger (SLB) reported disappointing 3Q results, missing on revenue expectations.  Schlumberger said the global recovery in oil has yet to translated to a higher bottom line for it, though Schlumberger sees a continued overall improving trend in its businesses.  Schlumberger warned that investors will have to wait longer for those improvements to deliver higher results.  Schlumberger is rated “Unattractive’ in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • State Street (STT) reported 3Q results that were generally in line with consensus.   State Street delivered net interest margin of 1.48% while 1.47% was expected, while State Street’s 3Q EPS of USD$1.87 was in line with USD$1.88 expected.  State Street has USD$2.81 trillion in assets under management.  State Street is rated ‘Unattractive’ in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Tencent (700 HK) backed iCarbonX has hired Goldman Sachs banker Shawn Lee to be its CFO.  Tencent backed iCarbonX is seeking to help people use their genetic data to generate recommendations for diet medicine for them.  iCarbonX has raised USD$100mm in financing, including from Tencent.  Tencent closed 0.36% higher at HKD$282.  Tencent is rated ‘Attractive’ in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • VF Corp (VFC) reported 3Q earnings above expectations, with EPS of USD$1.43 coming above USD$1.33 consensus and beating the highest estimate in the market.  VF Corp also lifted its full years guidance, upping EPS guidance to USD$3.65 from originally USD$3.52-3.57.  VF Corp is rated ‘Neutral’ in both our US Large-Cap and US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Volvo AB (VOLVB SS) reported mixed 3Q results and the stock is trading 4.3% lower at 130.90 krona.  Volvo AB sees strong demand in North America that it expects to continue into 2019, offsetting weakening demand in Europe.   Volvo’s return on sale came at 11.1%, above its 10% target and up from 9.1%.  Volvo is rated ‘Neutral’ in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
     

European Stocks

  • European stocks are declining this morning, with profit warnings from major companies like Michelin weighing on investor moods
  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently down -0.29%, the FTSE 100 is higher by +0.23%, the DAX has fallen -0.19%, and the CAC 40 is lower by -0.67%
  • The EU has sent the Italian coalition government a letter asking for an explanation for it budget plans, calling the current a breach of EU fiscal rules
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 0.37x
  • Utilities (+1%), Food & Beverage (+0.86%), and Personal & Household Goods (+0.83%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Automobiles & Parts (-2.32%), Travel & Leisure (-1.93%), and Industrial Goods & Services (-1.56%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • 29 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 83 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 5 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 124 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is moving up this morning and is currently at 19.36 after closing at 18.17 yesterday
  • EUR€ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.1462
  • GBP£ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.3032
  • CHF is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.0041
  • German 10-Year Bunds are higher with yields down -0.2 basis points to 0.414%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are lower with yields up 0.2 basis points to 1.54%

Asian Stocks

  • Asian stocks finished the last day of trading this week mixed, with Chinese and Hong Kong stocks up after the sharpest drop in valuations since 2015 earlier in the week
  • The Nikkei 225 finished down -0.56%, the Hang Seng ended up +0.42%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise up +0.84%, and the CSI 300 was +2.97%
  • Chinese 3Q GDP, disappointed, coming in at +6.5% vs. expectations for +6.6%
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 0.25x
  • 3 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 15 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 0 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 6 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 1.78x
  • 0 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 12 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 0 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 7 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are higher with yields down -0.3 basis points to 0.149%
  • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.2 basis points to 0.27%
  • JPY¥ is currently up +0.16% against the USD$ to 112.39
     

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Microsoft Corp 1548 7.86 5 30 0.0% 6.24%
Netflix Inc 1406 7 -3 -19 -0.84% -2.2%
Alphabet Inc 1339 7 -2 -1 -0.45% -0.29%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The 1152 7.57 -2 24 3.39% 3.68%
International Business Machines Corp 1098 8.43 0 -3 0.42% 0.42%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Visa Inc 515 9.43 4 26 0.23% 5.7%
Lockheed Martin Corp 173 8.57 0 14 0.47% 10.99%
Walt Disney Co/The 331 8.57 -3 -18 -0.99% 0.8%
BlackRock Inc 462 8.43 -3 -7 -3.57% -3.65%
Danaher Corp 111 8.43 0 14 1.23% 1.16%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

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ETF 30D IV 30D IV
Percentile
90D IV 90D IV
Percentile
90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV
Percentile
30D IV-
20D HV
30D IV-20D HV
Percentile
90D IV-
60D HV
90D IV-60D HV
Percentile
SPY 15.61 90.08% 15.16 89.29% 0.97 8.93% -1.74 21.03% 3.35 67.26%
QQQ 23.93 94.05% 20.65 92.46% 0.86 2.18% -0.87 30.16% 2.95 64.68%
IWM 18.96 95.24% 18.23 95.63% 0.96 9.92% 0.22 27.38% 4.11 80.75%
FEZ 20.03 96.43% 18.4 97.22% 0.92 10.12% 5.91 94.44% 2.77 68.25%
EEM 24.75 97.62% 22.48 97.62% 0.91 2.58% 1.86 64.68% 2.1 65.08%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
HUMANA INC HUM Health Care Health Care Providers & Services 1.28% 3.32% 28.31%
VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC VZ Telecommunication Services Diversified Telecommunication Services 1.27% 2.56% 6.7%
BB&T CORP BBT Financials Banks 1.19% 1.44% -1.15%
CHURCH & DWIGHT INC CHD Consumer Staples Household Products 0.95% 7.41% 19.12%
CENTERPOINT ENERGY INC CNP Utilities Multi-Utilities 0.72% 2.04% 2.19%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
BROADCOM INC AVGO Information Technology Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment -3.93% -0.39% -12.96%
EAGLE MATERIALS INC EXP Materials Construction Materials -3.58% -7.09% -45.15%
MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE VAC Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure -3.37% -2.55% -38.83%
ADOBE SYSTEMS INC ADBE Information Technology Software -3.36% 4.81% 34.28%
BERRY GLOBAL GROUP INC BERY Materials Containers & Packaging -3.08% -0.74% -32.58%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS INC HTZ Industrials Road & Rail -8.82% -1.51% -42.67%
FOSSIL GROUP INC FOSL Consumer Discretionary Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods -8.46% -3.09% 79.42%
OCEANEERING INTERNATIONAL OII Energy Energy Equipment & Services -6.97% -3.91% 9.37%
AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS AGIO Health Care Biotechnology -6.85% 5.32% 11.05%
BLOOM ENERGY CORP-REDH BE Industrials Electrical Equipment -6.62% -5.92% 2.25%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
GLOBAL BLOOD THERAPEUTICS GBT Health Care Biotechnology 6.24% 18.96% -8.63%
ALLAKOS INC ALLK Health Care Biotechnology 5.72% 21.43% 30.65%
ARRAY BIOPHARMA INC ARRY Health Care Biotechnology 2.62% 16.41% 13.19%
GENERAL ELECTRIC CO GE Industrials Industrial Conglomerates 1.55% -3.02% -34.67%
IMMUNOMEDICS INC IMMU Health Care Biotechnology 1.55% 9.66% 35.48%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptos

  • A report released by Moscow-based cybersecurity company, Group-IB, finds that cryptocurrency exchanges have lost USD$882 million to hackers over the last two years. The report goes on to forecast that the trend will likely increase in the future as hackers more directly target cryptocurrency exchanges. The most notable cryptocurrency exchange hack occurred at the beginning of 2018 when Japanese crypto exchange, Coincheck, was robbed of USD$532 million of NEM tokens. The report highlights that some of the ‘busiest’ hacking groups involved in orchestrating attacks on cryptocurrency exchanges include Lazarus, Cobalt, Silence, and MoneyTaker. The report goes on to detail, “In 2019, cryptocurrency exchanges will be a new target for the most aggressive hacker groups usually attacking banks. The number of targeted attacks on crypto exchanges will rise.” 
  • Cryptocurrency mining chip-maker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is forecasting weaker demand in 4Q2018 for processors used by cryptocurrency mining hardware. While speaking in their 3Q2018 earnings call, TSMC noted that their revenue will be affected by “continued weakness” in the cryptocurrency mining market. TSMC is the main supplier for Bitmain, the world’s largest manufacturer of cryptocurrency mining hardware -- in Bitmain’s initial public offering filing submitted in late September, investors learned that 60% of Bitmain’s chip supply comes from TSMC. While speaking on the subject, TSMC CEO and Vice Chairman, C.C. Wei said, “We estimate our 2018 growth rate will be about 6.5% in US Dollar terms, which is close to the foundry industry’s growth but slightly below our 7% to 9% guidance given in the last conference.” 
  • Huobi, a cryptocurrency exchange based in Singapore, has launched a new solution that allows users to switch between four different fiat-pegged stablecoins in the event of price volatility or market fluctuations. Huobi announced in a press release on Friday of HUSD, a medium to facilitate exchanges of different stablecoins. When Huobi users deposit, say, 10 Gemini Dollars (GUSD), they receive 10 HUSD in exchange and their GUSD is essentially placed in a pool of other users’ GUSD. When users choose to withdraw, they are debited with the stablecoin of their choice that is pulled from the pool of said stablecoin. Robin Zhu, Huobi’s Chief Operating Office, points out that the solution could potentially run into a problem if the pool is not large enough to cover withdrawals. 

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Events Calendar

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Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
State Street Corporation STT 10/19/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
V.F. Corporation VFC 10/19/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: C
Citizens Financial Group, Inc. CFG 10/19/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
Schlumberger Limited SLB 10/19/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
SunTrust Banks, Inc. STI 10/19/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
Honeywell International Inc. HON 10/19/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Industrials: C
The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. IPG 10/19/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Discretionary: C
ManpowerGroup Inc. MAN 10/19/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Industrials: C
Synchrony Financial SYF 10/19/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Kansas City Southern KSU 10/19/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Industrials: B
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. CLF 10/19/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Euronet Worldwide, Inc. EEFT 10/19/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Information Technology: C
Gentex Corporation GNTX 10/19/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Discretionary: B
AirXpanders, Inc. AXP 10/19/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
BAIC Motor Corporation Limited SEHK:1958 10/19/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
China Mobile Limited SEHK:941 10/19/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B

Source: S&P Capital IQ