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Global stocks are surging on news that the US President Trump has asked US trade officials to begin drafting a trade agreement with China

Nov 02, 2018

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US Stocks

  • Global stocks are surging to end the week on hopes that US – China trade tensions are thawing 
  • US index futures are point to a jump in US stocks on the NY open with Dow Jones minis +1.20%, S&P500 minis +0.88% and Nasdaq 100 minis +0.18%
  • According to Bloomberg News, US President Trump has instructed US trade officials to begin drafting a potential trade agreement following a phone call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping 
  • Change in US Nonfarm Payrolls for October will be released later this morning at 8:30am 
  • Disappointing new iPhone sales for Apple (AAPL) may put a cap on gains in the tech indices this morning – there may be an opportunity to buy QQQ this morning if there is a disconnect between the benchmark tech ETF and other major US stocks ETFs like SPY and IWM 
  • The VIX is little changed this morning and is currently at 18.65 after closing at 19.34 yesterday
  • FXI December 21 OTM Calls, SPY November 2 OTM Puts, EEM December 21 OTM Calls & Puts, and HYG November 16 & January 2019 OTM Puts are the most actively traded options contracts in the US pre-market
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 3.24 basis points to 3.1627%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has widened 0.61 basis points to 0.29%
  • WTI Crude is currently down -2.48% to USD$63.69/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread up USD$2.76 to USD$8.58/bbl
  • Gold is currently little changed 0.17% to USD$1235.48/oz

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data.
 

  • Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) shares are trading higher after reporting earnings that largely beat analyst expectations. Alibaba delivers FY2Q2019 adjusted EPS of USD$1.40/share, beating consensus estimates of USD$1.06/share by 31%. Alibaba’s top-line revenue fell just short of analyst forecasts with FY2Q2019 revenue of USD$12.40bn while consensus forecasts called for USD$12.45bn. Alibaba management also pulled-back FY2019 revenue growth guidance by between 4% to 6%. Trump comments on a potential China-US trade resolution has put a further bid into Chinese stocks. Alibaba is rated “Neutral” in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Apple (AAPL) reported 3Q results that beat expectations but guidance that disappointed.  Following the disappointing guidance, Apple declined more that 5%.  Apple reported 4Q revenue of USD$62.9 billion while 61.44 billion was expected.  Apple’s 3Q EPS of USD$2.91 beat USD$2.78 expected.  Apple sold 46.9mn iPhones, 48.4mn was expected.  Apple 4Q outlook, however, has come at the low end of expectations.  Apple expects 4Q sales of iPhones, which included the key holiday season, to be 46.9mn units while the market is expecting 48.4mn.  Notably Apple announced that in the future it will not report individual sales figures on iPhones, iPads and iMac sales.  Apple is rated “Attractive” in both our US Large-Cap and US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Caesars Entertainment (CZR) reported an unexpected profit of 14 cents per share.  Caesars Entertainment was expected to report a 1 cent per share loss.  Caesars Entertainment reported revenue of USD$2.19 billion, in line with USD$2.21 billion expected.  Adjusted ebitdar was USD$600mn.  Caesars Entertainment is rated “Unattractive” in both our US Large-Cap and US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock ideas.
  • CBS Corp. (CBS) reported 3Q profit of USD$1.24 excluding some items versus USD$1.22 expected.  CSB saw a 19% jump in tv-show licensing and as sales at its entertainment unit.  CBS expects a surge in ad sales in the next quarter with up to USD$250mn in additional ad sales.  CBS is rated is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock ideas.
  • Kraft Heinz (KHC) reported 3Q adjusted EPS that missed estimates.  Kraft Heinz reported adjusted EPS of 78 cents while 81 cents was consensus.  Kraft Heinz net sales came at USD$6.38 billion, consensus was USD$6.31 billion.  Kraft Heinz saw higher costs weigh in results.  Kraft Heinz is rated is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock ideas.
  • Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) reported a 17% increase in tractor sales for October.  Mahindra & Mahindra reported 47,376 units sold versus 39.516 a year ago.  Exports were 2% of sales.  Mahindra & Mahindra said demand is strong as festival season approaches.    Mahindra & Mahindra is rated “Attractive” in our India All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • MGM China (2282 HK) surged on news Macau casino revenue rose 2.6%.  Total revenue hit a record USD$3.38 billion and the sector is reacting positively.  MGM China is rated “Neutral” in our china All-Cap Global Top Stock ideas.
  • Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) increased net income guidance to 640 billion yen but still comes blow average consensus of 654 billion yen.  Mitsubishi Corp booked a one-time charge of 55 billion yen for losses related to Chiyoda Corp.  Mitsubishi Corp expects strong growth from its energy business.  Mitsubishi Corp is rated “Unattractive” in our Japan Large-cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Rosneft (ROSN RS) may invite ExxonMobil (XOM) to participate in Far East project called Eastern Petrochemical according to a report in the local Russian press.  The report outlines a number of options, one of which is to offer ExxonMobil over 50% of the project, having ExxonMobil control, to avoid US sanctions.   Blomberg reports Russian officials mentioned in October that the 2 companies were talking.  ExxonMobil is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas, Rosneft is rated “Top Buy” in our European SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Starbucks (SBUX) posted results that beat sales expectations in the US.  Starbucks sales in the Americas rose 4% versus 2.8% consensus.  Starbucks saw 1% growth in China.  Starbucks reported 4Q EPS of 62 cents while 60 cents was consensus.  Starbucks is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock ideas.
     

 

European Stocks

  • European stocks are advancing this AM and poised to close the week with the biggest weekly advance since December 2016 
  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently up +1.04%, the FTSE 100 is higher by +0.75%, the DAX has advanced +1.46%, and the CAC 40 has risen +1.3%
  • News that trade tensions between China and the US may be thawing is putting a bid into export-sensitive stocks 
  • Eurozone manufacturing PMI dropped to 52.0 for the month of October (final amount) 
  • Italian manufacturing shrank for most of October, the greatest negative move in 4 years
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 5.59x
  • Automobiles & Parts (+3.51%), Basic Resources (+2.91%), and Technology (+2.05%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Food & Beverage (-0.07%), Health Care (-0.06%), and Utilities (+0.11%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • 77 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 8 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 6 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 16 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is little changed this morning and is currently at 18.05 after closing at 19 yesterday
  • EUR€ is currently up +0.316% against the USD$ to 1.1444
  • GBP£ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.3029
  • CHF is currently up +0.471% against the USD$ to 1.0026
  • German 10-Year Bunds are lower with yields up 3.3 basis points to 0.432%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are lower with yields up 3.3 basis points to 1.488%

Asian Stocks

  • Asian stocks shot up overnight following news that US President Donald Trump has asked US trade officials to draft a potential trade agreement
  • The Nikkei 225 finished up +2.56%, the Hang Seng ended up +4.21%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise up +3.97%, and the CSI 300 was +3.56%
  • The 4%+ jump in the Hang Seng is the biggest one day for the index since CY2015
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 2.95x
  • 10 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 29 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 0 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 22 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • 6 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 1 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 0 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 2 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are lower with yields up 0.6 basis points to 0.129%
  • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has widened 1.1 basis points to 0.26%
  • JPY¥ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 112.85

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Alphabet Inc 1808 7 3 4 2.18% 2.34%
Microsoft Corp 1592 7.14 30 30 4.61% 5.01%
Netflix Inc 1096 6.71 -7 -11 -1.28% -2.09%
Morgan Stanley 814 6.14 6 5 4.9% 3.65%
Intel Corp 752 6.14 31 29 9.24% 9.14%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Berkshire Hathaway Inc 111 8.43 -1 5 -99.94% -0.57%
Capital One Financial Corp 53 8.29 10 11 2.57% 3.24%
Visa Inc 452 7.71 4 7 4.58% 4.69%
Ford Motor Co 721 7.43 -10 -14 0.92% -2.2%
Walt Disney Co/The 321 7.43 -4 -20 -2.98% -0.66%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

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ETF 30D IV 30D IV
Percentile
90D IV 90D IV
Percentile
90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV
Percentile
30D IV-
20D HV
30D IV-20D HV
Percentile
90D IV-
60D HV
90D IV-60D HV
Percentile
SPY 16.84 90.48% 16.29 91.07% 0.97 12.1% -6.59 10.32% 1.51 41.27%
QQQ 23.1 90.87% 21.3 93.65% 0.92 13.1% -12.15 3.17% -1.1 30.16%
IWM 21.25 95.24% 19.76 95.24% 0.93 7.54% -5.15 7.94% 2.25 44.84%
FEZ 18.04 86.9% 16.69 83.53% 0.93 14.09% -0.75 34.52% -0.46 35.71%
EEM 23.06 91.07% 22.09 93.25% 0.96 15.67% -7.48 6.75% -1.6 26.98%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE VAC Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 9.26% 11.45% -32.97%
CHURCH & DWIGHT INC CHD Consumer Staples Household Products 8.86% 9.01% 28.49%
EPAM SYSTEMS INC EPAM Information Technology IT Services 6.58% 7.86% 16.31%
EAGLE MATERIALS INC EXP Materials Construction Materials 4.29% 11.83% -41.5%
NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP NOC Industrials Aerospace & Defense 4.19% 1.17% -10.02%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
FISERV INC FISV Information Technology IT Services -5.7% -5.18% 13.91%
VERISK ANALYTICS INC VRSK Industrials Professional Services -3.57% 0.63% 18.79%
ANTHEM INC ANTM Health Care Health Care Providers & Services -3.56% -1.86% 17.2%
KELLOGG CO K Consumer Staples Food Products -2.29% -9.74% -3.61%
MSCI INC MSCI Financials Capital Markets -2.08% -1.38% 15.12%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
GENERAL ELECTRIC CO GE Industrials Industrial Conglomerates -5.29% -20.84% -60.31%
GARDNER DENVER HOLDINGS INC GDI Industrials Machinery -4.77% 4.93% -26.74%
APACHE CORP APA Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -3.88% -4.72% -17.36%
WHITING PETROLEUM CORP WLL Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -3.66% -1.6% 27.3%
BAKER HUGHES A GE CO BHGE Energy Energy Equipment & Services -3.04% -6.21% -20.31%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
FITBIT INC FIT Information Technology Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components 22.95% 24.22% -1.0%
ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC ACAD Health Care Biotechnology 13.79% 5.0% -30.82%
CARVANA CO CVNA Consumer Discretionary Specialty Retail 13.59% 9.27% 88.56%
GLOBAL BLOOD THERAPEUTICS GBT Health Care Biotechnology 11.61% 8.99% -5.41%
HERON THERAPEUTICS INC HRTX Health Care Biotechnology 11.14% 13.43% 51.72%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptos

  • A new blockchain trade finance platform was launched in Hong Kong this week by a consortium of dozens of banks, including notables like HSBC, BNP Paribas, and Standard Charted. Called eTrade Connect, the trade finance platform will increase efficiency by cutting the time needed to approve a loan application from 36 hours to just 4 hours. eTrade Connect will use blockchain technology in order to automate multiple trade finance processes and streamline interactions between counterparties -- the system is also expected to reduce fraud risks in letters of credit and other documents.  
  • DeVere, a financial advisory firm, is launching an actively managed cryptocurrency investment fund that will focus on capturing future growth of cryptocurrency markets. DeVere historically caters to high-net-worth clients through large wealth advisory groups, potentially leading this fund to introduce high-wealth into cryptocurrency markets. Aside from capturing future growth, the new fund by DeVere will also explore arbitrage opportunities to secure stable and regular gains for investors.  
  • Reggie Browne, known as the, “godfather of ETFs,” said while speaking at Georgetown University’s Financial Markets Quality Conference yesterday that Bitcoin (BTC) Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) will be certified, “no time soon,”. Browne currently serves as a senior managing director and the head of ETF trading at Cantor Fitzgerald, a large finical services firm with over 5,000 institutional clients. Browne went on to add that, “It’s very difficult for the [Securities and Exchange Commission] to wrap their heads around a positive approval because there’s no data yet... the markets just aren’t here.” 
  • The Department of Federal Revenue in Brazil (RFB) has published a draft on domestic cryptocurrency tax regulation that seeks to require monthly reports from exchanges on their cryptocurrency assets -- for example, the draft regulation would require cryptocurrency exchanges disclose monthly transaction volume, the identify of its customers, etc.). The draft crypto tax regulation also would institute a range of fines for those that fail to issue monthly reports. The RFB will hear criticisms and entertain public consultation on the draft regulation until November 19th, 2018. 

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Events Calendar

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Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
ITT Inc. ITT 11/2/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Industrials: C
Duke Energy Corporation DUK 11/2/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
Vistra Energy Corp. VST 11/2/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Realogy Holdings Corp. RLGY 11/2/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
Cboe Global Markets, Inc. CBOE 11/2/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A
Newell Brands Inc. NWL 11/2/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F, US Consumer Discretionary: F
AbbVie Inc. ABBV 11/2/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. AXL 11/2/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: C
Buckeye Partners, L.P. BPL 11/2/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F
Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM 11/2/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Pacific Basin Shipping Limited SEHK:2343 11/2/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Beijing Tong Ren Tang Chinese Medicine Company Limited SEHK:3613 11/2/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
China Conch Venture Holdings Limited SEHK:586 11/2/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Sinotrans Limited SEHK:598 11/2/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Orient Overseas (International) Limited SEHK:316 11/2/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: F
Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Limited SEHK:1114 11/3/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
China Reinsurance (Group) Corporation SEHK:1508 11/3/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Genertec Universal Medical Group Company Limited SEHK:2666 11/3/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Dongfeng Motor Group Company Limited SEHK:489 11/3/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
GPT Group GPT 11/3/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. RARE 11/4/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Andeavor ANDV 11/4/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
SITC International Holdings Company Limited SEHK:1308 11/4/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
China Zhongwang Holdings Limited SEHK:1333 11/4/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels (Group) Company Limited SEHK:2006 11/4/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited SEHK:2328 11/4/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. FOLD 11/4/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Huaneng Renewables Corporation Limited SEHK:958 11/4/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D

Source: S&P Capital IQ