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Stocks are advancing as US midterm elections results point to a possible rally in US stocks into year-end

Nov 07, 2018

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US Stocks

  • Stocks are advancing as the overhang of the US midterm elections has been lifted 
  • Stocks strategists are speculating that a split Congress suggests there is little chance of major policy changes which is seen as market-friendly – some are even suggesting that a split Congress has historically been bullish for US stocks
  • US stocks index futures are pointing to a positive start of trading in NY with Dow Jones minis +0.63%, S&P500 minis +0.76% and Nasdaq 100 minis +1.06% 
  • According to analysis by Bloomberg, US stocks have historically (since 1950) rallied, on average, +10.7% from their October lows through year-end following midterm elections
  • US mortgage applications dropped 4% last week, the lowest level in four years as borrowing costs rose to their highest since CY2010
  • The VIX is  moving down this morning and is currently at 17.39 after closing at 19.91 yesterday
  • HYG November 16 and December 21 OTM Puts, SPY November 16 OTM Puts, and Baker Hughes (BHGE) January 2019 OTM Puts are the most actively traded options contracts in the US pre-market
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are higher with yields down -3.65 basis points to 3.1911%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 3.24 basis points to 0.27%
  • WTI Crude is currently down -1.41% to USD$62.21/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread up USD$3.73 to USD$10.57/bbl
  • Gold is currently up 0.54% to USD$1233.86/oz
  • Global oil prices are jumping this AM following news OPEC is considering production cuts next year in response to increasing global oil inventories as US shale production accelerates 

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data.
 

  • Adidas (ADS GR) lowered its sales guidance for full year to 8-9% growth, down from ~10% previously.  While lowering growth guidance, margin guidance was raised by Adidas.  Adidas expects net income will rise up to 20%, 3 percentage points more than previously indicated.  Adidas saw weakness in sales in Western Europe, falling 1%, and had strong inventory control in North America.  Adidas’ online sales grew 52% but are only 7% of sales.  Adidas is rated “Attractive” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Boeing (BA) has issued a warning to pilots in the wake of the recent 737 Max jet crash.  Boeing is advising pilots how to deal with potential malfunction of a sensor while flying.  Boeing’s advisory reminds pilots how to deal with faulty information from its angle of attack sensor, which is being implicated in the recent crash.   Boeing is basing this advisory on preliminary data from the crash and has not yet reached a final conclusion.  Boeing is rated “Attractive” in both our US Large-Cap and US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • CME Group (CME) announced it is moving Europe’s largest market for short term financing out of London ahead of Brexit.  CME Group wants to guarantee that continental firms will have access to the market in the event there is no Brexit deal.  CME Group will move the BrokerTec business, as it is known, to Amsterdam.   CME Group is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Great Wall Motors (2333 HK) reported October sales growth of 1.9% compared with a year ago.  Great Wall Motors reported sales of 110,088 in October versus 108,008 a year earlier.  Great Wall Motors production in October of 108,220 versus 107,817 a year earlier.  Great Wall Motors is rated “Top Short” in our China All-Cap Global top Stock ideas.
  • Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD) was downgraded by Credit Suisse and JP Morgan in the wake of weak 3Q results.   JP Morgan cut Ironwood Pharmaceuticals’ price target to USD$11 from USD$20 while cutting its rating to underweight from neutral.  Credit Suisse cut its price target to USD$14 from USD$20 and its rating to neutral from outperform.  Ironwood Pharmaceuticals is rated “Neutral” in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Match Group (MTCH) shares suffered after reporting guidance below consensus.  Match Group said sales will be USD$440-4540mn, below consensus of USD$454.5mn while 3Q revenue came in line at USD$444mn.  Match Group sees little revenue growth for the rest of the year and it seeks to become a one-stop shop for dating apps.  Match Group is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Persimmon (PSN LN) CEO Jeff Fairburn will be leaving the company by “mutual agreement” according to a release from Persimmon.  The CEO has faced criticism for his USD$99mn bonus package and an overall compensation that grew 22 times larger between 2016 and 2017.  Despite leaving, Persimmon will still pay him the full bonus package he received.  Persimmon is rated “Top Buy” in our United Kingdom All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Zillow Group (ZG) shares plunged in after-hours trading after cutting its forecast for the second straight quarter.  Zillow Group now sees full year revenue of USD$1.307-1.324 billion, a range below the lowest estimates.  Zillow Group sees full year ebitda of USD$195-207mn, again well below the USD$247mn consensus.  Zillow Group said it will take time for advertisers to adopt to its new business model and cited that as the reason for the cut.  Zillow Group is not rated in or Global Top Stock Ideas.
     

 

 

European Stocks

  • European stocks are advancing to the start the morning, in sympathy with US stocks index futures 
  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently up +1.06%, the FTSE 100 is higher by +1.11%, the DAX has advanced +1.02%, and the CAC 40 has risen +1.34%
  • UK Prime Minister Theresa May is reportedly prepared to ask for Cabinet approval for a draft BREXIT deal after yesterday’s Cabinet meeting ended without agreement 
  • Spanish bank stocks are rallying sharply following news that the Spanish Supreme Courts ruled they are not liable for mortgage stamp duty payments 
  • The Italian coalition government is calling for a vote of confidence to strong-arm dissident members of the Five Star movements to force through legislation backing tighter restrictions for asylum seekers – Five Star’s partner in the coalition government, La Lega, have positioned themselves as anti-immigration with a focus on limiting the arrival of undocumented foreigners into Italy
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 4.08x
  • Oil & Gas (+2.22%), Basic Resources (+1.75%), and Retail (+1.66%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Media (+0.11%), Travel & Leisure (+0.2%), and Technology (+0.31%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • 37 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 16 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 7 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 11 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is  moving down this morning and is currently at 14.23 after closing at 18.11 yesterday
  • EUR€ is currently up +0.586% against the USD$ to 1.1494
  • GBP£ is currently up +0.511% against the USD$ to 1.3166
  • CHF is currently up +0.712% against the USD$ to 1.0046
  • German 10-Year Bunds are lower with yields up 1.2 basis points to 0.446%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are lower with yields up 0.3 basis points to 1.542%
     

Asian Stocks

  • Asian stocks finished mixed in overnight trading, following a choppy trading session as traders speculated about the impact of US midterm elections on US trade policy with major Asian economies, particularly China and Japan 
  • The Nikkei 225 finished down --0.28%, the Hang Seng ended up +0.1%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise up +0.08%, and the CSI 300 was -0.65%
  • Chinese foreign exchange reserves dropped to USD$3.05 trillion at the end of October, coming slightly lighter the market expectations for USD$3.06 trillion and translates to a USD$34 billion drop for the month of October – the third monthly decline in a row and largest single month decline since CY2016
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 0.46x
  • 15 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 7 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 1 stock in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 8 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 0.92x
  • 4 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 0 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 0 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 0 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are higher with yields down -0.8 basis points to 0.123%
  • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.7 basis points to 0.25%
  • JPY¥ is currently down -0.309% against the USD$ to 113.08

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Alphabet Inc 1385 6.43 10 7 2.75% 2.39%
Microsoft Corp 1019 5.86 30 30 4.61% 4.81%
Boeing Co/The 883 5.14 17 18 10.02% 10.33%
Netflix Inc 836 6.14 -8 -12 -1.3% -2.07%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The 825 7.43 21 18 3.69% 2.94%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Visa Inc 415 9.43 3 7 4.57% 4.67%
BlackRock Inc 361 9.14 4 4 -2.87% -3.65%
Bank of America Corp 400 8.57 14 8 2.58% 1.87%
Ford Motor Co 650 8.43 -9 -13 1.35% -2.2%
Walt Disney Co/The 290 8.43 -3 -20 -2.96% -3.12%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

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ETF 30D IV 30D IV
Percentile
90D IV 90D IV
Percentile
90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV
Percentile
30D IV-
20D HV
30D IV-20D HV
Percentile
90D IV-
60D HV
90D IV-60D HV
Percentile
SPY 16.27 86.71% 15.89 87.7% 0.98 14.88% -7.52 9.52% 1.02 38.69%
QQQ 23.5 90.48% 21.73 92.86% 0.92 13.89% -11.99 3.57% -0.9 31.35%
IWM 20.68 92.86% 19.52 94.05% 0.94 10.52% -5.83 5.95% 1.98 41.27%
FEZ 17.28 83.33% 17.08 87.3% 0.99 31.55% -1.41 28.17% 1.03 58.93%
EEM 24.26 94.84% 22.27 92.86% 0.92 5.16% -6.33 9.52% -0.89 32.54%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
INVESTORS BANCORP INC ISBC Financials Banks 9.47% 10.26% -7.91%
MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS MLM Materials Construction Materials 8.08% 13.14% -16.49%
DARDEN RESTAURANTS INC DRI Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 3.97% 2.36% 16.61%
FIRSTCASH INC FCFS Financials Consumer Finance 3.8% 7.51% 24.43%
BROADCOM INC AVGO Information Technology Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment 3.64% 3.22% -12.86%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
BROADRIDGE FINANCIAL SOLUTNS BR Information Technology IT Services -10.2% -8.19% 15.81%
VERISIGN INC VRSN Information Technology Internet Software & Services -2.3% 12.52% 36.16%
KAR AUCTION SERVICES INC KAR Industrials Commercial Services & Supplies -1.31% 1.98% 14.32%
SERVICEMASTER GLOBAL HLDGS SERV Consumer Discretionary Diversified Consumer Services -1.24% -1.4% 60.78%
MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE VAC Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure -1.01% 10.41% -33.88%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
GREENSKY INC GSKY Information Technology IT Services -45.73% -30.42% -98.18%
BLOOM ENERGY CORP-REDH BE Industrials Electrical Equipment -28.81% -28.68% -37.11%
PTC THERAPEUTICS INC PTCT Health Care Biotechnology -8.65% -6.19% 68.86%
CALIFORNIA RESOURCES CORP CRC Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -6.81% -5.49% 35.54%
ACACIA COMMUNICATIONS INC ACIA Information Technology Communications Equipment -6.75% 22.57% 15.69%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
MOSAIC CO MOS Materials Chemicals 10.09% 15.77% 29.33%
ALTICE USA INC ATUS Consumer Discretionary Media 6.94% 15.24% -7.12%
FITBIT INC FIT Information Technology Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components 5.6% 34.48% 3.76%
PENUMBRA INC PEN Health Care Health Care Equipment & Supplies 5.26% 8.48% 49.16%
LAREDO PETROLEUM INC LPI Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 4.13% 6.91% -66.64%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptos

  • A research study and report conducted by the Bank of Israel recommends against the creation of a state-backed cryptocurrency, dubbed the Digital Shekel. The Bank of Israel launched its research study towards the end of 2017 and finds that a Digital Shekel would be unsuitable to fit the needs of a large number of Israelis in multiple locations across the country. The study did not rule out the issuance of a Digital Shekel indefinitely, however, it does discard the possibility of a Digital Shekel in the immediate future.  
  • Spanish banking giant BBVA has successfully completed a test that involved placing a USD$150 million syndicated loan on a blockchain. The syndicated loan is for Red Electrica, Spain’s national electric grid operator. Other co-lenders participating in the syndicated loan include Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and BNB Paribas. BBVA intends to test other blockchain pilots for syndicated loans in the future.  
  • The Blockchain Transparency Institute has published its November 2018 Exchange Rankings Report that highlights Binance as the top cryptocurrency exchange in the world. After controversy developed around the way Coinmarketcap.com collects exchange volume data last week, the Blockchain Transparency Institute employed a new exchange ranking methodology that draws on different metrics to provide a more accurate representation of true exchange volumes. The Blockchain Transparency Institute also emphasized Bitstamp, Coinbase, and Kraken as cryptocurrency exchanges to make the biggest moves towards the top of their list.  
  • US law enforcement is considering “SIM swapping” as one of its “highest priorities” in its battle to fight cryptocurrency fraud, according to a post by KrebsonSecurity. In an interview with KrebsonSecurity, Samy Tarazi, a police sergeant in Santa Barbara and supervisor of the REACT Task Force (a unit dedicated to combatting cybercrime), said that SIM swapping occurrences has increased dramatically as of late. SIM swapping involves an individual remote hijacking the SIM card of another person’s mobile phone, giving the hijacker full control over the device. One type of data that has been prominently targeted by SIM swappers is cryptocurrency login details and crypto wallet passwords.

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Events Calendar

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Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
Bright Scholar Education Holdings Limited BEDU 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Ctrip.com International, Ltd. CTRP 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Humana Inc. HUM 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A
The Southern Company SO 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
Sempra Energy SRE 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A
Sinclair Broadcast Group, Inc. SBGI 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: C
Coty Inc. COTY 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F, US Consumer Staples: C
Reata Pharmaceuticals, Inc. RETA 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ALNY 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F
ANSYS, Inc. ANSS 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Information Technology: B
CDK Global, Inc. CDK 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Information Technology: A
Charles River Laboratories International, Inc. CRL 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Rockwell Automation Inc. ROK 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Industrials: C
The Middleby Corporation MIDD 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Industrials: C
Andeavor Logistics LP ANDX 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company SMG 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation VAC 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: C
DISH Network Corporation DISH 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: C
Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: C
Hologic, Inc. HOLX 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
Atmos Energy Corporation ATO 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
Glaukos Corporation GKOS 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F
HubSpot, Inc. HUBS 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Information Technology: D
Portola Pharmaceuticals, Inc. PTLA 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F
Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. TTWO 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Information Technology: D
Viking Therapeutics, Inc. VKTX 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F
QUALCOMM Incorporated QCOM 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Information Technology: A
Albemarle Corporation ALB 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Alteryx, Inc. AYX 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F, US Information Technology: F
Cable One, Inc. CABO 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Discretionary: A
CarGurus, Inc. CARG 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Information Technology: C
Carvana Co. CVNA 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F, US Consumer Discretionary: C
DaVita Inc. DVA 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Energy Transfer LP ET 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Evergy, Inc. EVRG 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Flowserve Corporation FLS 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F, US Industrials: C
Fossil Group, Inc. FOSL 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Consumer Discretionary: D
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. KDP 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F, US Consumer Staples: B
Microchip Technology Incorporated MCHP 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Information Technology: B
Monster Beverage Corporation MNST 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Staples: C
Marathon Oil Corporation MRO 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F
Murphy Oil Corporation MUR 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Nektar Therapeutics NKTR 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc. NUS 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Staples: C
Prudential Financial, Inc. PRU 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
QEP Resources, Inc. QEP 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F
Roku, Inc. ROKU 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F
SailPoint Technologies Holdings, Inc. SAIL 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Information Technology: C
TripAdvisor, Inc. TRIP 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: C
News Corporation NWSA 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F, US Consumer Discretionary: C
Akorn, Inc. AKRX 11/7/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
ARRIS International plc ARRS 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Information Technology: C
CenterPoint Energy, Inc. CNP 11/7/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
Rockwell Collins, Inc. COL 11/7/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Industrials: A
Esterline Technologies Corporation ESL 11/7/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Industrials: D
The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. HAIN 11/7/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Consumer Staples: F
Mirati Therapeutics, Inc. MRTX 11/7/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Mettler-Toledo International Inc. MTD 11/7/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
OGE Energy Corp. OGE 11/7/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A
The Trade Desk, Inc. TTD 11/7/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Information Technology: C
Zogenix, Inc. ZGNX 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Alibaba Pictures Group Limited SEHK:1060 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Company Limited SEHK:1066 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
IMAX China Holding, Inc. SEHK:1970 11/7/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
AAC Technologies Holdings Inc. SEHK:2018 11/7/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
IGG Inc SEHK:799 11/7/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Zheng Li Holdings Limited SEHK:8283 11/7/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
CNOOC Limited SEHK:883 11/7/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: A
FRIWO AG CEA 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
111, Inc. YI 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: F
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation SEHK:981 11/7/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C

Source: S&P Capital IQ