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Morning Brief

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Global stocks retreating ahead of conclusion of FOMC meeting today

Nov 08, 2018


 

US Stocks

  • Global stocks are retreating this morning ahead of the conclusion of the FOMC meeting this afternoon 
  • US index stocks futures are sliding in pre-market, pointing to a negative open in NY with Dow Jones minis –0.24%, S&P 500 minis –0.37%, and Nasdaq 100 minis –0.50%
  • The US Fed is expected to release their decisions on whether to increase the Fed Funds rate later this afternoon – Fed fund futures are implying a 13.2$% probability of a rate hike at current FOMC meeting (78.2% probability for the December meeting) 
  • European and Asian stocks are trading at the lowest relative levels to US growth stocks, based on NTM P/E, in over 3 years, currently, sitting at a 40% discount
  • The VIX is little changed this morning and is currently at 16.59 after closing at 16.36 yesterday
  • UUP January 2019 OTM Puts, EEM November 30 & December 21 OTM Calls, SPY November 16 OTM Calls and FXI November 16 & December 21 OTM calls are the most actively traded options contracts in the US pre-market today
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are higher with yields down -1.48 basis points to 3.2207%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 1.08 basis points to 0.27%
  • WTI Crude is currently down -0.87% to USD$61.67/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread up USD$1.02 to USD$9.76/bbl
  • Gold is currently down -0.27% to USD$1223.14/oz
  • Goldman Sachs is “slamming the table” saying that global oil prices will rally into year-end on the back of a deficit in global oil supply

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data.
 

  • Bombardier (BBD/B CN) announced it is cutting 5,000 jobs and selling assets, as its CEO looks to overhaul the company.  Bombardier will sell its Q400 turboprop business and others assets, looking to make a total of USD$900mn in divestures.  Bombardier sees USD$250mnin annual savings from the moves by 2021 and will take a charge for the same amount in 2019.  Bombardier is rated “Neutral” in our Canada All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Commerzbank (CBK GR) reported 3Q results that were in line and received generally encouraging comments from analysts.  Commerzbank saw 3Q revenue of 2.19 billion euros while 2.17 billion was expected.  Commerzbank 3Q net income of 218mn euros was a touch above 211.9mn euros consensus.  Commerzbank has added 900,000 customers over the last year and management sees the first sign of recurring business from those new clients.  Commerzbank is rated “Neutral” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.    
  • News Corp (NWSA) reported 1Q results that came in line with expectations.  News Corp reported revenue of USD$2.52 billion while consensus was for USD$2.53 billion.  News Corp adjusted EPS of 17 cents came above 5 cents consensus.   News Corp is testing a sports streaming service in its Foxtel unit, presently going through a turnaround, as management is confident of the unit’s strong future.  News Corp is rated “Top Short” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Qualcomm (QCOM) gave tepid guidance for the coming year as Apple (AAPL) has stopped placing orders with the two preparing to face off in court.   Qualcomm sees 1Q sales of USD$4.5-5.3 billion while present consensus is USD$5.56 billion.  Qualcomm expects a pickup later in the year as 5G rollout picks up steam.   Apple is preparing to go to trial against Qualcomm, the supplier of chips for its phones for years, alleging that its practice of taking a cut of the selling price of a phone as its patent fee is illegal.  Qualcomm is countersuing alleging Apple owes it USD$7 billion in unpaid royalties.  Apple is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.  Qualcomm is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Tesla (TSLA) announced one of its independent directors, Robyn Denholm, will take over as chairman of the board effective immediately.  She will take over from CEO Elon Musk as he vacates the chairman position as part of his settlement with the SEC.  Robyn Denholm has been an independent director since 2014.  Tesla is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Short” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN) said gaming revenue in Macau since the passage of Golden Week has been “sporadic”.   Wynn Resorts Ltd has seen weak revenue over the last week in Macau, adding fuel to the belief that the trade war and weaker economy in China are holding back gamblers.   Wynn Resorts Ltd believes the current pullback is temporary and sees underlying demand still strong.  Wynn Resorts Ltd is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap and US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.

 

 

European Stocks

  • European stocks are little changed this AM, drifting down from early morning gains, as traders digest EU comments about the Italian budget deficit and further tightening monetary policy from the US Fed
  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently up +0.23%, the FTSE 100 is higher by +0.33%, the DAX has fallen -0.17%, and the CAC 40 is lower by -0.02%
  • The EU comments that it doesn’t see the Italian budget working as EU internal forecasts suggest a high probability that the targeted budget deficit of 1.9% for CY2019 will be exceeded due to slower forecasted economic growth
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 1.35x
  • Insurance (+0.73%), Banks (+0.66%), and Basic Resources (+0.6%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Automobiles & Parts (-0.8%), Personal & Household Goods (-0.29%), and Media (-0.26%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • 110 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 15 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 19 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 5 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is little changed this morning and is currently at 15.68 after closing at 16.43 yesterday
  • EUR€ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.1411
  • GBP£ is currently down -0.183% against the USD$ to 1.3102
  • CHF is currently little changed against the USD$ at 0.9968
  • German 10-Year Bunds are lower with yields up 0.9 basis points to 0.456%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are lower with yields up 2.3 basis points to 1.556%

Asian Stocks

  • Asia stocks continued the global rally in stocks, closing positive in overnight trading 
  • The Nikkei 225 finished up +1.82%, the Hang Seng ended up +0.31%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise up +0.58%, and the CSI 300 was -0.28%
  • The MSCI Asia Pacific, a barometer of stocks across Asia, is now trading near a 3-week high 
  • The Malaysian subsidiary of Restaurant Brands International (QSR), QSR Brands, operating of KFC and Pizza Hut restaurants across Southeast Asia, is planning a USD$500 million IPO 
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 5.25x
  • 36 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 17 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 2 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 10 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 1.78x
  • 15 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 0 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 0 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 1 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are higher with yields down -0.1 basis points to 0.122%
  • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has widened 0.5 basis points to 0.26%

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Alphabet Inc 1417 7 10 7 2.75% 2.39%
Microsoft Corp 996 6.43 30 30 4.61% 4.81%
Boeing Co/The 840 5.57 17 18 10.02% 10.33%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The 828 7 21 18 3.45% 2.94%
Netflix Inc 730 5.86 -8 -12 -1.12% -2.07%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Visa Inc 401 9.14 3 7 4.57% 4.67%
Lockheed Martin Corp 145 8.86 15 14 3.91% 3.95%
BlackRock Inc 376 8.86 4 4 -2.82% -3.63%
Walt Disney Co/The 311 8.43 -3 -20 -2.83% -2.93%
QUALCOMM Inc 273 8.29 3 8 21.11% 21.63%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

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ETF 30D IV 30D IV
Percentile
90D IV 90D IV
Percentile
90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV
Percentile
30D IV-
20D HV
30D IV-20D HV
Percentile
90D IV-
60D HV
90D IV-60D HV
Percentile
SPY 13.23 74.6% 14.21 79.37% 1.07 33.73% -9.29 7.14% -1.24 33.33%
QQQ 19.3 79.37% 19.68 83.33% 1.02 36.71% -14.61 0.4% -3.85 20.63%
IWM 17.6 85.32% 17.4 87.5% 0.99 20.63% -7.86 2.38% -0.42 26.59%
FEZ 15.07 65.08% 15.66 71.03% 1.04 48.61% -3 17.86% -0.63 34.92%
EEM 21.16 82.54% 21.15 85.32% 1 33.53% -8.01 6.35% -2.3 21.03%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
HUMANA INC HUM Health Care Health Care Providers & Services 6.47% 9.96% 34.63%
ANTHEM INC ANTM Health Care Health Care Providers & Services 6.38% 5.08% 25.84%
ADOBE SYSTEMS INC ADBE Information Technology Software 5.21% 3.07% 35.5%
VULCAN MATERIALS CO VMC Materials Construction Materials 4.76% 7.67% -18.17%
MASTERCARD INC MA Information Technology IT Services 4.46% 5.21% 32.09%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
CDK GLOBAL INC CDK Information Technology Software -7.9% -7.79% -28.16%
MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE VAC Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure -4.8% 3.55% -38.68%
KAR AUCTION SERVICES INC KAR Industrials Commercial Services & Supplies -3.13% -1.75% 11.18%
HENRY (JACK) & ASSOCIATES JKHY Information Technology IT Services -2.75% -2.15% 24.14%
CHURCH & DWIGHT INC CHD Consumer Staples Household Products -2.64% 10.75% 30.38%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
FOSSIL GROUP INC FOSL Consumer Discretionary Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods -13.6% -4.96% 87.06%
ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC ACAD Health Care Biotechnology -8.98% 2.63% -41.97%
PENNEY (J C) CO JCP Consumer Discretionary Multiline Retail -2.61% 2.68% -84.07%
GENERAL ELECTRIC CO GE Industrials Industrial Conglomerates -2.36% -9.33% -64.36%
BRIGHTHOUSE FINANL INC BHF Financials Insurance -1.93% 8.6% -28.91%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
TENABLE HOLDINGS INC TENB Information Technology Software 9.59% 11.09% 5.06%
SPARK THERAPEUTICS INC ONCE Health Care Biotechnology 8.57% 0.93% -16.04%
HERON THERAPEUTICS INC HRTX Health Care Biotechnology 7.4% 11.39% 51.98%
TANDEM DIABETES CARE INC TNDM Health Care Health Care Equipment & Supplies 7.23% 5.05% 274.57%
CARRIZO OIL & GAS INC CRZO Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 7.16% 11.36% -12.08%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptos

  • Anatoly Aksakov, the chairman of Russia’s State Duma Committee on Financial Markets, said that if Russia pursues a state-backed stablecoin, it would be the complete equivalent to Russia’s fiat ruble. Aksakov further elaborated, saying, “For example, you bring 100 thousand rubles to a bank and get 100 thousand crypto rubles, one to one for fiat money. You can use these funds to buy goods fixed in the blockchain.” Aksakov went on to say that a digital Russian ruble would replace the fiat ruble, “as soon as blockchain begins to occupy a significant place in our economy.” Last week, Aksakov discussed in a press conference that the Russian government is considering the launch of a state-backed cryptocurrency pegged 1:1 to the Russian ruble.  
  • NRI SecureTechnologies, a subsidiary of Japan’s Nomura Research Institute (NRI), unveiled a new blockchain security alert tool in a press release while also announcing that it is partnering with US blockchain software company ConsenSys. The blockchain security alert tool, dubbed, “Blockchain Security Monitoring Service,” will inform operators of blockchain networks about “vulnerabilities” in the system. According to the press release, the first target of the Blockchain Security Monitoring Service will be smart contract weakness. NRI SecureTechnologies will work with ConsenSys in order to expand the offerings of its Blockchain Security Monitoring Service. 
  • Poloniex, a cryptocurrency exchange operated by Goldman Sachs-backed Circle, is the first cryptocurrency exchange to offer trading for the upcoming Bitcoin Cash (BCH) hard fork. This will be the first time Poloniex offers trading of a cryptocurrency ahead of a possible fork. In a blog post, Poloniex discussed that this move is part of a wider strategy to improve customer experience. Two pre-fork variations of BCH will be available, including Bitcoin Cash ABC (BCHABC) sand Bitcoin Cash SV (BCHSV) -- both pre-forked variations of BCH will trade against Circle’s stablecoin, USD Coin (USDC). 
  • The Korean Bar Association, membership of which is required by all South Korean lawyers, is lobbying the government to take action and expedite a legal framework for cryptocurrency regulation in the country. In a press conference, Korean Bar Association President Kim Hyun said, “We urge the government to break away from negative perceptions and hesitation, and draw up bills to help develop the blockchain industry and prevent side effects involving cryptocurrencies.” The Korean Bar Association’s call on the South Korean government comes as South Koreans anxiously await the government’s decision on whether or not to repeal the country’s ban on initial coin offerings (ICO), which was originally enacted in November. 
     

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Events Calendar

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Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
CenturyLink, Inc. CTL 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
ATA Inc. ATAI 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: F
51job, Inc. JOBS 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
AAC Technologies Holdings Inc. SEHK:2018 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
NRG Energy, Inc. NRG 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Discovery, Inc. DISCA 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F, US Consumer Discretionary: C
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. NCLH 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: C
Worldpay, Inc. WP 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F, US Information Technology: D
Loxo Oncology, Inc. LOXO 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F
Pyxus International, Inc. PYX 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Consumer Staples: C
Cardinal Health, Inc. CAH 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
CommScope Holding Company, Inc. COMM 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Information Technology: B
D.R. Horton, Inc. DHI 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Discretionary: C
IAC/InterActiveCorp IAC 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Information Technology: B
Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. SBH 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: --, US Consumer Discretionary: C
Scientific Games Corporation SGMS 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F, US Consumer Discretionary: C
Denbury Resources Inc. DNR 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. HII 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Industrials: B
Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated LGND 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A
Cheniere Energy, Inc. LNG 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. NXST 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: A
Pinnacle West Capital Corporation PNW 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Targa Resources Corp. TRGP 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F
Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. HTZ 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Industrials: D
ICU Medical, Inc. ICUI 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
Activision Blizzard, Inc. ATVI 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Information Technology: A
The Walt Disney Company DIS 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Consumer Discretionary: A
Eldorado Resorts, Inc. ERI 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: C
Globus Medical, Inc. GMED 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
Hortonworks, Inc. HDP 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F, US Information Technology: D
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. LOPE 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Discretionary: B
TransEnterix, Inc. TRXC 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Overstock.com, Inc. OSTK 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Consumer Discretionary: F
AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. AMC 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Consumer Discretionary: B
Dropbox, Inc. DBX 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F, US Information Technology: D
Sangamo Therapeutics, Inc. SGMO 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Skyworks Solutions, Inc. SWKS 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Information Technology: C
Synaptics Incorporated SYNA 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: --, US Information Technology: D
DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc. XRAY 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Yelp Inc. YELP 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
AIA Group Limited SEHK:1299 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
athenahealth, Inc. ATHN 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Clairvest Group Inc. CVG 11/8/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: --, US Information Technology: D
The Liberty SiriusXM Group LSXMK 11/8/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: C
Synthomer plc SYNT 11/8/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: --, US Information Technology: D
Tribune Media Company TRCO 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: B
CK Hutchison Holdings Limited SEHK:1 11/8/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
CK Infrastructure Holdings Limited SEHK:1038 11/8/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited SEHK:1052 11/8/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: A
Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited SEHK:1347 11/8/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Kingboard Holdings Limited SEHK:148 11/8/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Shenzhen International Holdings Limited SEHK:152 11/8/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Swire Pacific Limited SEHK:19 11/8/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Melco International Development Limited SEHK:200 11/8/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
CITIC Limited SEHK:267 11/8/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: A
Jiangxi Copper Company Limited SEHK:358 11/8/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Sinotrans Shipping Limited SEHK:368 11/8/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust SEHK:405 11/8/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Landing International Development Limited SEHK:582 11/8/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Power Assets Holdings Limited SEHK:6 11/8/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
MTR Corporation Limited SEHK:66 11/8/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Madison Holdings Group Limited SEHK:8057 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: F
58.com Inc. WUBA 11/8/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Kandi Technologies Group, Inc. KNDI 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
BEST Inc. BSTI 11/8/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Ubiquiti Networks, Inc. UBNT 11/9/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Information Technology: C

Source: S&P Capital IQ