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Turmoil in UK Prime Minister May’s Cabinet weighing on stocks

Nov 15, 2018



Market data as of 7am

US Stocks

  • Global stocks are mixed to start the day as European stocks are dropping on news of turmoil as the UK debates the current BREXIT deal  
  • US index futures are advancing, following early morning volatility, pointing to a positive open in NY with Dow Jones minis +0.30%, S&P500 minis +0.26% and Nasdaq 100 minis +0.56% 
  • UK Prime Minister Theresa May has convinced her Cabinet to support her BREXIT plan though the vote was followed by several major resignations, including the resignation of BREXIT Minist Dominic Raab
  • Bloomberg is reporting that Chinese trade officials have outlined potential concessions to US trade representatives in an attempt to resolve any major trade disputes ahead of the US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s meeting at the G20 summit in Argentina later this month 
  • UBS is reporting that US S&P500 energy stocks now have an average (market capitalized weighted) dividend yield that is nearly 1 pt above the average (market capitalized weighted) dividend yield of the S&P500 and signals a “value buying opportunity” for investors – currently, there are no energy stocks in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas
  • The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) experienced net positive fund flows of +USD$1.16 billion 
  • The VIX is little changed this morning and is currently at 20.94 after closing at 21.25 yesterday
  • USO January 2019 OTM Puts, SPY November 16 OTM Puts, XOP January 2019 OTM Puts, Bank of America (BAC) November 16 OTM Calls and VNQ December 21 OTM Puts are the most actively traded options contracts in the US pre-market
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are higher with yields down -2.2 basis points to 3.103%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.13 basis points to 0.26%
  • WTI Crude is currently up 1.01% to USD$56.25/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread little changed USD$0.15 to USD$9.16/bbl
  • Gold is currently little changed -0.09% to USD$1209.79/oz
  • Rising US inventories appears to be putting a cap on any rally in global oil prices related to OPEC’s statement that it is now considering a production cut of 1.4 million barrels next month 
  • The Brent-WTI spread may expand further in CY2019 as factors driving a rally in global oil prices may be offset in the domestic US as shale production continues to accelerate
     

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data.
 

  • Amazon (AMZN) continues to receive criticism around the New York metropolitan area for the amount of subsidies it is receiving for the move to Long Island City, Queens.  New York state Senator Kirsten Gillibrand believed to be considering a presidential run in 2020, criticized the deal in a tweet yesterday.  Amazon reports on its site that New York government-state and city-are providing USD$48,000 per expected created job, an enormous sum for the protesting politicians.  Amazon is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Apple (AAPL) is actively recruiting engineers in San Diego, the home of Qualcomm (QCOM).  Apple is seeking mobile chip designers, an effort designed to further weaken Qualcomm’s ability to ever supply chips to Apple again.  Apple and Qualcomm are due to face off in court in 2019 over their chip supply contracts, this after Apple stopped buying chips from Qualcomm.  Both parties are alleging the other owes it vast sums.  Apple is rated “Neutral” in both our US Large-Cap and US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Credit Suisse Group (SWX: CSGN) shares are negative after reports are breaking that the Swiss bank is deliberating hundreds of job cuts. Citing people familiar with the matter, the job cuts could come as early as this year as a part of CEO Tidjane Thiam’s initiative to cut expenses, which is now extending into its fourth year. Credit Suisse did not comment on the story. Credit Suisse is rated “Neutral” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Henkel AG (XTRA: HEN3) shares are posting slight gains in relief of a reported quarterly profit that kept the firm on track to meet its 2018 growth guidance. Henkel generated y/y EPS growth of 2.6% to 1.58 euros/share while reporting organic y/y sales growth of 2.7% to 5.04bn euros. Henkel AG also saw its EBIT margin improve by 40 basis points to 18.4%. Henkel is rated “Neutral” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Hugo Boss (BOSS GR) announced that it will pay more attention to fashion trends and avoid the fashion mistakes it made in 2015 and 2016.  Hugo Boss will speed up production, personalize clothes more and boost its e-commerce effort significantly.    Hugo Boss guidance is for sales growth of 5-7% for the next 4 years as it seeks to move closer to the “fast fashion” models of other successful retailers.  Hugo Boss is rated “Attractive” in our SMID-Cap Global top Stock Ideas.
  • Lockheed Martin (LMT) announced it was awarded a contract for 255 additional F-35 fighter jets.  Lockheed Martin’s contract is valued at USD$22.7 billion and it will receive a USD$6 billion advance as part of the agreement.  Lockheed Martin will deliver 106 of the aircraft to the US military branches with the balance going to allied foreign customers.  Lockheed Martin was also awarded a contract for an additional eight MH-60R helicopters, a contract valued at USD$382mn.  Lockheed Martin is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Netease (NTES) reported 3Q results that beat expectations.  Netease 3Q earnings per ADR of USD$2.55 came above USD$2.46 expected.  Netease 3Q revenue of USD$2.45 billion beat USD$2.40 billion consensus.  Netease 3Q gross profit came at USD$1.1billion.  Netease approved a dividend of USD$0.45 per ADR and approved a USD$1 billion buyback program.  Netease is rated “Neutral” in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Oracle (ORCL) lost a challenge to the Pentagon’ USD$10 billion cloud contract.  Oracle complained to the US General Accounting Office alleging that the process unfairly favored Amazon (AMZN) and violated the government’s procurement standards.  The General Accounting Office ruled against Oracle Wednesday, leaving the Pentagon to seek a single provider as it has been doing.  Oracle is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Tencent (700 HK, TCEHY) backed Mogu Inc. has reduced its valuation target for its IPO.  Mogu is seeking a USD$2 billion valuation, half the USD$4 billion target when the deal was first announced earlier in the year.  Mogu is an online retailer of fashion and cosmetics with 62.6 million active users.  Tencent is rated “Attractive” in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Walmart Inc. (WMT) shares are trading slightly higher in pre-market trading after reporting CY3Q2018 financials that generally pleased investors. Walmart reports CY3Q2018 comparable y/y same store sales growth of 3.4%, surpassing analyst estimates. Notably, Walmart changed its indefinite comparable same store sales growth guidance from “about 3%” to “at least 3%”. Walmart generated an adjusted EPS of USD$1.08/share in CY3Q2018 while analyst consensus called for USD$1.01/share -- this excludes a one-time loss from the acquisition of JD.com.  Walmart also raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance from between USD$4.65/share and USD$4.80/share to between USD$4.75/share and USD$4.85/share. Walmart is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas.

 

 

European Stocks

  • European stocks declining this morning as members of UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s cabinet quit in protest to her BREXIT deal 
  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently down -0.54%, the FTSE 100 is higher by +0.2%, the DAX has fallen -0.01%, and the CAC 40 is lower by -0.33%
  • Domestic UK stocks in the FTSE 100 are suffering the most as traders fear that the UK could leave the EU without a BREXIT deal in place 
  • Bloomberg is reporting that Quants are observing sharp moves in stocks with value stocks selling off sharply as investors shift allocations to those stocks which are biased positively to the earnings momentum factor
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 0.67x
  • Oil & Gas (-0.08%), Telecommunications (-0.86%), and Basic Resources (+0.53%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Automobiles & Parts (-1.89%), Food & Beverage (+0.58%), and Utilities (-0.87%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • 80 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 58 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 12 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 25 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is moving up this morning and is currently at 19.6 after closing at 18.45 yesterday
  • EUR€ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.1303
  • GBP£ is currently down -1.493% against the USD$ to 1.2798
  • CHF is currently little changed against the USD$ at 0.9939
  • German 10-Year Bunds are higher with yields down -2.8 basis points to 0.37%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are higher with yields down -9.9 basis points to 1.407%

Asian Stocks

  • Asia stocks finished positive in overnight trading following better-than-expected earnings from Tencent (SEHK:700, ADR: TCEHY) and news that trade officials in Beijing are considering concessions to US trade officials for the first time since the summer 
  • Japanese stocks were an outlier overnight, closing in the red, as traders fear continued uncertainty about US trade policy following comments by Democrats in the US House of Representatives that US President Trump needs Congress’ approval for the trade deal with Mexico & Canada 
  • The Nikkei 225 finished down --0.2%, the Hang Seng ended up +1.75%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise up +1.44%, and the CSI 300 was +1.17%
  • Total turnover on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange remained light for a second straight day with total volume traded slightly more than 25% below the 20-day moving average 
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 0.86x
  • 6 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 20 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 5 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 9 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 9x
  • 2 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 1 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 0 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 1 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are higher with yields down -0.2 basis points to 0.109%
  • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.7 basis points to 0.24%
  • JPY¥ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 113.48

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Alphabet Inc 1514 7.43 10 7 0.05% 2.25%
Microsoft Corp 966 6.29 30 30 4.56% 4.81%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The 903 6.43 21 18 4.29% 2.94%
Netflix Inc 809 6.86 -10 -10 0.83% -1.44%
Morgan Stanley 792 6.86 8 3 6.39% 3.6%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Wells Fargo & Co 426 8.14 -11 -12 -0.27% 2.47%
JPMorgan Chase & Co 478 7.86 13 11 0.26% 3.03%
NVIDIA Corp 284 7.86 -6 4 -1.53% 0.86%
Costco Wholesale Corp 87 7.86 8 10 0.12% 3.34%
BlackRock Inc 375 7.71 2 4 -2.6% -3.54%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

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ETF 30D IV 30D IV
Percentile
90D IV 90D IV
Percentile
90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV
Percentile
30D IV-
20D HV
30D IV-20D HV
Percentile
90D IV-
60D HV
90D IV-60D HV
Percentile
SPY 17.41 92.06% 16.66 92.06% 0.96 9.52% -2.92 21.03% 0.8 39.29%
QQQ 25.24 95.63% 22.8 95.63% 0.9 11.11% -7.14 14.68% -1.63 28.97%
IWM 22.05 95.63% 19.84 94.44% 0.9 4.96% -1.97 17.86% 1.79 42.46%
FEZ 17.88 86.11% 16.58 81.35% 0.93 14.29% -1.1 35.71% 0.32 52.58%
EEM 24.4 94.44% 22.28 92.06% 0.91 3.77% -4.05 14.29% -1.31 31.35%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
FIRSTCASH INC FCFS Financials Consumer Finance 2.51% -2.65% 21.78%
FASTENAL CO FAST Industrials Trading Companies & Distributors 2.08% 2.12% 5.29%
COPART INC CPRT Industrials Commercial Services & Supplies 2.03% -1.95% 13.34%
MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS MLM Materials Construction Materials 1.81% -1.22% -17.6%
COMCAST CORP CMCSA Consumer Discretionary Media 1.5% -0.03% -5.34%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
HUMANA INC HUM Health Care Health Care Providers & Services -4.17% -9.96% 24.67%
SERVICEMASTER GLOBAL HLDGS SERV Consumer Discretionary Diversified Consumer Services -3.53% -4.43% 60.25%
NASDAQ INC NDAQ Financials Capital Markets -3.16% -5.52% 12.66%
PG&E CORP PCG Utilities Electric Utilities -24.58% -64.55% -55.31%
COSTAR GROUP INC CSGP Industrials Professional Services -2.73% -6.11% 15.38%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
ESPERION THERAPEUTICS INC ESPR Health Care Biotechnology -7.7% -23.96% -36.16%
EDITAS MEDICINE INC EDIT Health Care Biotechnology -7.45% -6.2% -24.36%
ANTERO RESOURCES CORP AR Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -7.26% -16.75% -33.14%
NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES INC NBIX Health Care Biotechnology -14.43% -23.09% 8.26%
SANGAMO THERAPEUTICS INC SGMO Health Care Biotechnology -12.72% -40.79% -61.27%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
LAREDO PETROLEUM INC LPI Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 7.05% -9.38% -73.93%
DIAMOND OFFSHRE DRILLING INC DO Energy Energy Equipment & Services 4.03% -8.64% -36.46%
MURPHY OIL CORP MUR Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 3.88% -1.69% -0.13%
CIRRUS LOGIC INC CRUS Information Technology Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment 3.38% -6.63% -31.54%
CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORP CHK Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 3.04% -1.35% -11.08%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptos

  • A new poll conducted by Russian payment service Yandex.Money in partnership with the Moscow Information Technology Department (ITD) reveals that 5% of Moscow residents who use non-cash methods of payment are open to using cryptocurrencies. The poll surveyed 1,000 Moscow residents by way of phone. Of the Moscow residents who already use non-cash forms of payment, just 1% already use cryptocurrencies. Ivan Buturlin, ITD’s head of analytics, provided some context to the survey, saying, “34% of Moscow residents use primarily non-cash methods of payment, wherein 63% conduct electronic transactions at least once a day.”
  • Binance, currently the world’s second largest cryptocurrency exchange by adjusted daily volume, announced in a blog post today that it would begin listing USD Coin (USDC), Circle’s USD-pegged stablecoin, with deposits and trading beginning immediately. USDC, which was announced in May and launched in September of this year, will trade against Bitcoin (BTC) and Binance Coin (BNB). In its blog post, Binance detailed why it chose to list USDC, saying, “For increased transparency, USDC has engaged a top-ranking auditing firm to release monthly balance attestations of the corresponding USDC and USD balances held/issued.” 
  • KuCoin, a Hong Kong-based global cryptocurrency exchange, generated Series A funding worth roughly USD$20 million lead by IDG Capital, Matrix Partners, and Neo Global Capital, as per a Wednesday press release. The Series A capital will be used to facilitate the development and launch of KuCoin’s 2.0 platform, research, expansion into new markets, and more. The funding and future expansion of KuCoin comes as the cryptocurrency community continues to observe a harsh divergence between Hong Kong’s flourishing cryptocurrency industry and mainland China’s increasingly draconian cryptocurrency sector. 
  • Point95 Global, a Shanghai-based digital asset management firm, is reportedly planning to launch a new multi-strategy cryptocurrency-quantitative fund in partnership with a yet-to-be-named licensed asset manager in Hong Kong, as per news outlet China Knowledge. The unconfirmed private crypto fund will leverage complex algorithms to identify and capitalize on arbitrage trading opportunities across different facets of the cryptocurrency sector. The fund size is expected to cap at around USD$30 million. According to the report by China Knowledge, Point95 Global will act as the fund’s sub advisor while the unnamed Hong Kong-based licensed asset manager will serve as the fund manager and distributor. 
     

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Events Calendar

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Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
Huazhu Group Limited HTHT 11/15/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
RISE Education Cayman Ltd REDU 11/15/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Walmart Inc. WMT 11/15/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Staples: A
58.com Inc. WUBA 11/15/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
J. C. Penney Company, Inc. JCP 11/15/2018 Earnings Release Date  US Consumer Discretionary: F
Berry Global Group, Inc. BERY 11/15/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Energizer Holdings, Inc. ENR 11/15/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Staples: C
Post Holdings, Inc. POST 11/15/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Staples: A
Williams-Sonoma, Inc. WSM 11/15/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: C
Synthomer plc SYNT 11/15/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: --, US Information Technology: D
CK Hutchison Holdings Limited SEHK:1 11/15/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited SEHK:1052 11/15/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: A
Kingboard Holdings Limited SEHK:148 11/15/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Swire Pacific Limited SEHK:19 11/15/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Melco International Development Limited SEHK:200 11/15/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Sinotrans Shipping Limited SEHK:368 11/15/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust SEHK:405 11/15/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Landing International Development Limited SEHK:582 11/15/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
MTR Corporation Limited SEHK:66 11/15/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Company Limited SEHK:1066 11/15/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Dillard's, Inc. DDS 11/15/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: D
Towngas China Company Limited SEHK:1083 11/15/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited SEHK:1833 11/15/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: F
CITIC Telecom International Holdings Limited SEHK:1883 11/15/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: A
Man Wah Holdings Limited SEHK:1999 11/15/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Champion Real Estate Investment Trust SEHK:2778 11/15/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Momo Inc. MOMO 11/15/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Secoo Holding Limited SECO 11/15/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Viacom, Inc. VIAB 11/16/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Consumer Discretionary: B
Helmerich & Payne, Inc. HP 11/16/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Li Ning Company Limited SEHK:2331 11/16/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Orient Overseas (International) Limited SEHK:316 11/16/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: F
Sun Art Retail Group Limited SEHK:6808 11/16/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
China Youzan Limited SEHK:8083 11/16/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Zhongsheng Group Holdings Limited SEHK:881 11/16/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
China Aoyuan Property Group Limited SEHK:3883 11/16/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
SOHO China Limited SEHK:410 11/16/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C

Source: S&P Capital IQ