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Morning Brief

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Global rout in stocks takes a breather ahead of US Thanksgiving holiday

Nov 21, 2018

 

Market data as of 7:15am

 

US Stocks

  • The rout in global stocks appears to be taking a breather heading into the US Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow 
  • US stocks index futures are advancing this AM and pointing to a bounce back in US stocks this morning with front-month Dow Jones minis +0.51%, S&P500 minis +0.61%, and Nasdaq 100 minis +0.77% 
  • SPDR S&P500 ETF (SPY) experienced net inflows of USD$2.18 billion yesterday, driving up total asserts 0.9% to USD$252.9 billion The S&P500 dropped to 10% below its September high yesterday with stocks strategists suggesting the current decline offers an attractive buying opportunity 
  • During the recent rout in US stocks, options traders have been reducing the use of Puts as protection against further declines in the IWM and SPY ETFs.  Bloomberg reports that the Put open interest for both the SPY and IWM have dropped considerably since October.
  • The VIX is lower this morning and is currently at 21.70 after closing at 22.84 yesterday
  • Bank of America (BAC) November 23 OTM Calls, USO December 28 & January 2019 OTM Calls, SPY December 21 OTM Puts, and QQQ November 23 & December 12 OTM Puts are some of the most actively traded options contracts in the US pre-market 
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 1.27 basis points to 3.0755%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has widened 0.67 basis points to 0.27%
  • WTI Crude is currently up 1.67% to USD$54.30/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread down USD$0.68 to USD$9.22/bbl
  • Gold is currently little changed 0.16% to USD$1223.6/oz
  • Saudi Arabia reports its oil production jumped to a record 11 million barrels/day with The Kingdom receiving greater-than-usual demand from clients hedging a potential disruption in Iranian supplies 
  • The recent sell-off in oil futures has been exacerbated by investment banks selling futures to hedge exposure to producer hedges – many of the international oil producer clients have bought put options (both vanilla and exotic) to hedge cash flows exposure 
     

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data.
 

  • Airbus (AIR FP) named Dominick Asam as its new CFO, joining from Infineon Technologies (IFX GR).  Airbus also announced a new COO for its plane making unit, Michael Schollhorn.  Both will take over in April after the present executives leave the company.  Airbus is rated “Neutral” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  Infineon is rated “Top Short” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Deere & Co (DE) reported FY4Q results that missed estimates.  Deere reported 4Q adjusted EPS of USD$2.30 versus USD$2.45 expected.  FY4Q net sales of USD$8.34 billion came below USD$8.64 billion expected.  Deere expected fiscal 2019 net of USD$3.6 billion versus consensus of USD$3.6 billion.  Deere is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Foxconn Technology Group (2317 TT) announced it is aiming to cut 20 billion yuan (USD$2.9 billion) in expenses 2019 according to an internal memo cited in a Bloomberg article.  Foxconn is the largest assembler of iPhones for Apple (AAPL).    The memo highlights Foxconn’s need to cut expenses in its iPhone assembly unit by 6 billion yuan as it will face “a very difficult and competitive year”.  Foxconn will eliminate 10% of its non-technical staff as part of its cost cutting.  The bad news surrounding iPhone demand has sent Apple down over 20% from its October peak, closing in bear territory yesterday.  Foxconn is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.   Apple is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Gap (GPS) reported 3Q same store sales that were flat while consensus was for growth of 1.1%.  Gap also lowered guidance for full year earnings, now seeing USD$2.55-2.60 while previously guidance was USD$2.55-2.70.  3Q EPS of 69 cents came a touch above 68 cents expected.  Gap said it is Neutral whether to close hundreds of stores as it seeks to turn the company around.  Gap is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Foot Locker (FL) shares are soaring in pre-market trading after reporting FY3Q2018 earnings that notably beat analyst expectations. Foot Locker generated an adjusted EPS of USD$0.95/share in FY3Q2018 while analysts’ consensus called for USD$0.92/share. Foot Locker also generated FY3Q2018 comparable sales growth of 2.9% while analysts’ consensus called for just 2.0%. Foot Locker’s earnings beat post-market sent shares of competitors Nike (NKE), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), and Under Armour (UA) slightly higher in pre-market trading as well. Foot Locker is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas. Nike is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.  Dick’s is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas. Under Armour is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Unattractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Kingfisher PLC (LSE: KGF) shares are trading at their lowest level since September 2011 after announcing FY3Q2018 like-for-like sales that missed analyst expectations. In FY3Q2018, Kingfisher saw its Screwfix business generate like-for-like sales growth of 4.1% while analysts’ consensus called for 5.2%, its Brico Depot business generate like-for-like sales growth of 1.1% while analysts’ consensus called for 1.3%, and its Castorama business generate like-for-like sales growth of –7.3% while analysts’ consensus called for –3.0%. Kingfisher also announced a 50mm pound share buyback. Kingfisher is rated “Unattractive” in our United Kingdom All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Samsung’s (5930 KS) new Galaxy S10 phone top model will have 6 cameras and a 6.7-inch screen according to a report in the Wall Street Journal.  Samsung is planning a major update for the 10th anniversary of its flagship phone.  The article discusses a top-secret plan to introduce 4 phones in total, 3 with screens between 5.8 and 6.4 inches and fourth top of the line model with 6 cameras-2 in the front, 4 in back.  Samsung is following Apple (AAPL) with the 10th anniversary model, making a major update in an effort to spark sales, which have been slumping.  Apple is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.  Samsung is not rated on our Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Swatch (UHR SW) was downgraded at RBC today to sector perform from outperform.  RBC does not see any near-term catalysts for Swatch.  Additionally, RBC sees believes present consensus is too high for Swatch.  A significant risk for Swatch is the growing market for used watches which may further eat into Swatch’s growth prospects.  Swatch is rated “Neutral” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Tencent (700 HK) backed Tongcheng-Elong Holdings (780 HK) priced its IPO today in Hong Kong.  Tongcheng-Elong Holdings, a Chinese online travel site, priced its IPO at the bottom of the range at HK$9.80, raising USD$180mn.  Tongcheng-Elong Holdings originally intended to raise USD800mn-USD$1 billion.  Tongcheng-Elong Holdings is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.  Tencent is rated “Attractive” in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Thyssenkrupp AG (TKA GR) said it expects profit next year to rise after reporting a fall in full year earnings.  Thyssenkrupp full year net income dropped to 60 million euros after saying of November 8th it expected ~100mn euros.  Fiscal full year ebit came at 1.55 billion euros, below 1.6 billion euros guidance from November 8th.  Thyssenkrupp AG said it expects profit next year to rise after reporting a fall in full year earnings.  Thyssenkrupp is rated “Top Short” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) and Humana (HUM) are in talks to potentially take equity stakes in each other according to a report in the Wall Street Journal.  The companies have help talks about a variety of different ways to tie up, including expanding existing alliances.  Walgreen’s CEO has made clear the desire to expand its business, lamenting recently that Walgreens had not bought an insurance company 4 years ago.  Walgreens Boots Alliance is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas.
     

 

 

European Stocks

  • European  stocks are rebounding to start the morning as stocks steady following the rout in global stocks 
  • Sentiment in Europe is improving following rumors that the Italian coalition government is open to revisions to its CY2019 budget with the EU taking the first steps to imposing a fine on Italy
  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently up +0.37%, the FTSE 100 is higher by +0.71%, the DAX has advanced +0.64%, and the CAC 40 has risen +0.32%
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 2.08x
  • Telecommunications (+1.08%), Banks (+0.85%), and Basic Resources (+0.78%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Health Care (-0.15%), Food & Beverage (-0.13%), and Financial Services (-0.03%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • 19 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 200 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 9 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 108 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is higher this morning and is currently at 18.64 after closing at 19.96 yesterday
  • EUR€ is currently up +0.325% against the USD$ to 1.1407
  • GBP£ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.2807
  • CHF is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.0065
  • German 10-Year Bunds are lower with yields up 2.2 basis points to 0.372%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are lower with yields up 1.5 basis points to 1.398%

Asian Stocks

  • Asia stocks erased early trading losses to finish mixed in overnight trading 
  • The Nikkei 225 finished down --0.35%, the Hang Seng ended up +0.51%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise up +0.19%, and the CSI 300 was +0.25%
  • Japanese stocks finished down with global oil prices as energy-sensitive stocks dropped following the 6% decline in global oil prices in the previous NY trading session
  • Analysis by Bloomberg suggests price volatility for Asian stocks has dropped below the S&P500 – the average daily move of the MSCI Asia Pacific has been less than the S&P500 for 8 months in CY2018
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 0.32x
  • 21 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 48 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 3 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 20 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 2.57x
  • 7 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 1 stock reached 4-week lows
  • 0 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 0 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Japan 2-Year Government Bonds are higher with yields down -0.1 basis points to -0.141%
  • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are higher with yields down -0.7 basis points to 0.095%
  • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.6 basis points to 0.24%
     

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Alphabet Inc 1682 6.71 12 7 0.0% 1.96%
Microsoft Corp 767 5.43 30 30 4.67% 4.81%
Walmart Inc 744 3.43 13 -2 0.66% -2.8%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The 662 3.86 12 18 -0.11% 3.03%
Morgan Stanley 658 7 3 3 0.0% 3.6%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
BlackRock Inc 391 9.14 4 5 -0.05% -3.62%
MetLife Inc 70 8.86 15 15 4.87% 4.01%
Emerson Electric Co 47 8.57 -11 -12 3.52% 3.33%
Medtronic PLC 182 8.43 -1 2 2.41% 2.12%
Honeywell International Inc 333 8 -17 -14 0.58% -8.94%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

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ETF 30D IV 30D IV
Percentile
90D IV 90D IV
Percentile
90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV
Percentile
30D IV-
20D HV
30D IV-20D HV
Percentile
90D IV-
60D HV
90D IV-60D HV
Percentile
SPY 19.51 96.83% 19.34 98.41% 0.99 18.25% -2.31 25.99% 2.75 58.33%
QQQ 26.61 96.43% 24.4 99.6% 0.92 15.67% -7.69 14.48% -1.1 33.93%
IWM 23.35 97.62% 21.12 98.41% 0.9 5.16% -2 19.05% 2.16 47.62%
FEZ 20.93 95.63% 18.3 94.84% 0.87 5.95% 2.18 70.24% 2.12 69.84%
EEM 27.93 99.21% 23.74 98.41% 0.85 0.79% -0.81 44.05% -0.01 43.25%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
COSTAR GROUP INC CSGP Industrials Professional Services 3.13% 1.54% 19.65%
DOMINO'S PIZZA INC DPZ Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 1.24% -3.65% 31.77%
PG&E CORP PCG Utilities Electric Utilities 1.07% -33.06% -63.78%
BLACKBAUD INC BLKB Information Technology Software 1.01% -3.58% -31.13%
DUKE ENERGY CORP DUK Utilities Electric Utilities 1.0% 3.55% 10.71%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
BLACK KNIGHT INC BKI Information Technology IT Services -5.33% -11.22% -6.12%
DOLLAR GENERAL CORP DG Consumer Discretionary Multiline Retail -4.84% -9.12% 12.43%
NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP NSC Industrials Road & Rail -4.67% -2.47% 12.14%
MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE VAC Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure -4.66% -3.24% -61.34%
TJX COMPANIES INC TJX Consumer Discretionary Specialty Retail -4.47% -13.43% 21.59%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
L BRANDS INC LB Consumer Discretionary Specialty Retail -19.5% -25.97% -69.42%
SUPERIOR ENERGY SERVICES INC SPN Energy Energy Equipment & Services -10.07% -11.83% -42.49%
WHITING PETROLEUM CORP WLL Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -9.29% -8.81% 4.99%
CALIFORNIA RESOURCES CORP CRC Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -9.24% -11.5% 5.74%
OASIS PETROLEUM INC OAS Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -9.23% -12.53% -15.49%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
SPARK THERAPEUTICS INC ONCE Health Care Biotechnology 4.29% -9.56% -31.82%
INTERCEPT PHARMA INC ICPT Health Care Biotechnology 2.77% 5.82% 63.89%
PIVOTAL SOFTWARE INC PVTL Information Technology Software 1.99% -2.4% 9.4%
PENNEY (J C) CO JCP Consumer Discretionary Multiline Retail 1.56% 0.78% -99.81%
REGENXBIO INC RGNX Health Care Biotechnology 1.54% -2.99% 56.02%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptos

  • Cryptocurrency prices are beginning to find support with Bitcoin (BTC) up 2.78% in the last 24 hours, holding around the USD$4,600 price level and total cryptocurrency market capitalization leveling out around USD$150bn. As the dust settles, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) was the hardest hit among top coins, having lost 33.2% of its value to trade around USD$240. Through the last two days, Ripple (XRP) fell the least among top coins, losing only 10.2% of its value to trade at roughly USD$0.446272.
  • Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, announced plans on Tuesday to invest USD$3 million into Koi Trading, an OTC trading desk, to launch their own cryptocurrency trading desk in the US. Koi Trading, which aims to offer a compliant global option for private cryptocurrency liquidity, also offers services for data science, quantitative research, and compliance consulting. Ella Zhang, Binance Labs’ CEO, said about the investment, “Koi Trading’s mission is to bridge fiat and cryptocurrencies in a compliant manner. This aligns with our broader vision at Binance to build the infrastructure which provides the freedom of value exchange globally.” 
  • Bart Smith, the head of digital assets at global trading and technology firm Susquehanna, said on CNBC’s “Fast Money” that he still believes in Bitcoin (BTC) long-term despite the recent market crash. During the interview, Smith emphasized that cryptocurrencies are a, “long game,” adding that, “every great idea is volatile.” Smith also commented that BTC and cryptocurrencies alike are being treated as an asset class, and this is not what they were originally intended for. Smith added that he believes the cryptocurrency sell-off, which began last week, was partially sparked by the contentious and “juvenile” Bitcoin Cash (BCH) hard fork on November 15th, 2018.  
  • North Korea is reportedly set to showcase its technological advancements while exemplifying its support for blockchain technology after the country announced plans to hold a blockchain and cryptocurrency conference. This announcement comes after North Korea hosted a similar type of conference in August 2018. The conference will last a four week and feature some of the foremost experts in the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry, according to a report by Independent UK. While the conference will be open to Americans, North Korea reportedly will not allow delegates from South Korea, Israel, and Japan to attend.  
  • The Singapore Exchange has published its list of rules and expectations for listed companies that plan to raise capital through an Initial Coin Offering (ICO), as per a post on its official website last week. In the post, the Singapore Exchange detailed that companies interested in raising funds via ICO will be required to cooperate with Singapore Exchange Regulation (SGX RegCo) prior to the ICO. Additionally, firms seeking to raise funds through an ICO must provide legal and auditor opinions pertaining to the digital assets in question and their accounting treatment. 
     

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Events Calendar

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Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
Deere & Company DE 11/21/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Industrials: B
Future Land Development Holdings Limited SEHK:1030 11/21/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Jinchuan Group International Resources Co. Ltd SEHK:2362 11/21/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
China Grand Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Holdings Limited SEHK:512 11/21/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
China Investment Fund International Holdings Limited SEHK:612 11/21/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Tiangong International Company Limited SEHK:826 11/21/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited SEHK:1177 11/21/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Limited SEHK:1238 11/21/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Xtep International Holdings Limited SEHK:1368 11/21/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: A
Pacific Textiles Holdings Limited SEHK:1382 11/21/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: A
Yihai International Holding Ltd. SEHK:1579 11/21/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: A
K. Wah International Holdings Limited SEHK:173 11/21/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Colour Life Services Group Co., Limited SEHK:1778 11/21/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
CIMC Enric Holdings Limited SEHK:3899 11/21/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Dah Sing Financial Holdings Limited SEHK:440 11/21/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Li & Fung Limited SEHK:494 11/21/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Country Garden Services Holdings Company Limited SEHK:6098 11/21/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
IGG Inc SEHK:799 11/21/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Zheng Li Holdings Limited SEHK:8283 11/21/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited SEHK:293 11/21/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Company Limited SEHK:1066 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Towngas China Company Limited SEHK:1083 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited SEHK:1833 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: F
CITIC Telecom International Holdings Limited SEHK:1883 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: A
Man Wah Holdings Limited SEHK:1999 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Champion Real Estate Investment Trust SEHK:2778 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Secoo Holding Limited SECO 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
China Resources Land Limited SEHK:1109 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Henderson Land Development Company Limited SEHK:12 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
HengTen Networks Group Limited SEHK:136 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Sa Sa International Holdings Limited SEHK:178 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
ENN Energy Holdings Limited SEHK:2688 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Shougang Fushan Resources Group Limited SEHK:639 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Shangri-La Asia Limited SEHK:69 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Jumei International Holding Limited JMEI 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Synthomer plc SYNT 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Information Technology: D
MTR Corporation Limited SEHK:66 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited SEHK:1052 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: A
Swire Pacific Limited SEHK:19 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Sinotrans Shipping Limited SEHK:368 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Truly International Holdings Limited SEHK:732 11/22/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D

Source: S&P Capital IQ