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Morning Brief

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US stocks dropping ahead of shortened trading session over worries about decelerating global growth

Nov 23, 2018

 

Market data as of 7am

 

US Stocks

  • Global stocks are mixed with oil prices dropping as growing supply points to a deceleration in the US economy
  • US index futures are dropping this morning, pointing to a decline in US indices in today’s shortened trading session with front-month Dow Jones minis –0.60%, S&P500 minis –0.52%, and Nasdaq 100 minis –0.56% 
  • Since the beginning of the 4th quarter, US large-cap retail stocks are down nearly 12.3%, underperforming the S&P500 by 3.5% 
  • Value stocks in both Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples are outperforming their growth counterparts since October 
  • US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to meet next week at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • The VIX is little changed this morning and is currently at 21.54 after closing at 20.8 last week
  • JD.com (JD) January 2019 OTM Calls, EEM December 21 and March 2019 OTM Calls, Barrick Gold (ABX) January 2019 OTM Calls and QQQ December 21 OTM Calls are the most actively traded options in the US pre-market
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are higher with yields down -1.46 basis points to 3.0481%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 1.64 basis points to 0.23%
  • WTI Crude is currently down 4.2% to USD$52.33/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread up USD$3.29 to USD$8.81bbl
  • Gold is currently down -0.54% to USD$1222.04/oz
  • Global oil prices are dropping this morning following news that Saudi Araba believes its production levels are touching an all-time high (in excess of 10.7 million barrels/day) while domestic US crude oil inventories continues to expand – if the current price trend continues, it would be the seventh straight weekly drop for crude oil
     

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data.
 

  • Autogrill (BIT: AGL) shares are trading higher after the company announced yesterday of plans to appoint a new chairman of the Board of Directors this upcoming December. News of the new appointment comes after the recent and premature death of former Chairman Gilberto Benetton. Autogrill is rated “Neutral” in our European SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Boeing (BA) is preparing for the first report to be released on the Lion Air crash.  Indonesian authorities are due to release the initial findings on November 28th.  The cockpit voice recorded has not been found so all findings will be based on the black box data recorder.  Authorities may indicate a cause with these findings as it is believed a faulty sensor may have sent the Boeing 737 Max plunging into the sea.  Boeing is rated “Attractive” in both our US Large-Cap and US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas
  • BP (BP LN) is pumping the first oil from its Clair Ridge development in the North Sea.  BP has spent 7 years and USD$6 billion to get oil deep in the frigid waters in the North Sea.  The Clair Ridge field is expected to hold 640 million barrels of recoverable resources and about 45% will go to BP.   Clair Ridge will double BP’s output from the North Sea to around 200,000 bpd when fully operational.  BP is rated “Neutral” in our United Kingdom All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Deutsche Post (DPW GR) was reiterated as buy at UBS today.  USB likes Deutsche Post because of its broader geographical reach.  This reach will allow Deutsche Post to be well placed in the event of any tariff-related moderations in volumes.  Deutsche Post is rated “Unattractive” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Goldman Sachs (GS) confirmed that CEO Lloyd Blankfein met with Low Taek Jho in 2012, the financier at the heart of the coutry’s fraud and bribery scandal.  The New York Times first reported this fact and Goldman Sachs confirmed it.  The Times also reported that US prosecutors are examining this meeting as part of its investigation into the matter.  Goldman Sachs has suffered recently as it has been linked to many of the alleged events in the scandal.  Goldman Sachs is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Macy’s (M) shares are flat in pre-market trading as investors await clarity on today’s Black Friday results. According to Bloomberg news, holiday shopping activity looks to be on pace to set record levels, although abnormally cold weather has caused slow start with many shoppers waiting weather out in their cars. According to Target Corporation (TGT) CEO Brian Cornell, the retail industry is enjoying possibly the strongest environment for holiday shopping that he has seen in his 37-year career -- Target is trading flat pre-market. Macy’s is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas. Target is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Target’s (TGT) CEO said, when discussing Black Friday, that the industry is enjoying possibly the strongest environment ever.  Target is offering mini iPad deals and teddy bears for $10 on this Black Friday.  Shoppers were lined up at its stores at 5pm yesterday when many opened.    Generally good shopping weather today is expected to help what should be a strong day of sales.  Target is rated “Top Buy” in both our US Large-Cap and US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Tencent (700 HK) backed Meittuan Dianping (3690 HK) plunged in overnight trading after reporting an operating loss of UD$498mn, triple a year ago.  Meittuan Dianping is battling Alibaba (BABA) in the food delivery business.  The overnight sell-off of Meittuan Dianping is its biggest since its USD$4.2 billion IPO.  Meittuan Dianping is down 20% from its IPO price.  Meittuan Dianping is rated “Top Short” in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  Tencent is rated “Attractive” in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  Alibaba is rated “Neutral” in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • UBS (UBS SW) had it price target cut to CHF18 from CHF17 by RBC today.  RBC reiterated its sector perform rating for UBS.   RBC cut expected revenue from UBS as it sees a more challenging environment for both levels of transactions and its investment banking business.  There is downside risk to UBS’ consensus estimates, in RBC’s opinion.  UBS is rated “Neutal” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
     

 

European Stocks

  • European stocks are advancing on light volume today with decelerating growth in Germany suggesting a less hawkish stance by the European Central Bank (ECB) 
  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently up +0.16%, the FTSE 100 has declined -0.03%, the DAX has advanced +0.16%, and the CAC 40 has risen +0.14%
  • German Manufacturing and Services PMIs both came in weaker than expected, implying the weakest economic growth for the country in almost 4 years
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 1.26x
  • Banks (+0.73%), Telecommunications (+0.66%), and Media (+0.47%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Basic Resources (-1.43%), Oil & Gas (-0.86%), and Health Care (+0.06%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • 17 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 73 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 5 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 65 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is little changed this morning and is currently at 19.09 after closing at 19.29 yesterday
  • EUR€ is currently down -0.491% against the USD$ to 1.1347
  • GBP£ is currently down -0.404% against the USD$ to 1.2825
  • CHF is currently down -0.239% against the USD$ to 1.0026
  • Put options on the British Pound continue to be more expensive that call options as traders remain concerned about UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s ability to get her BREXIT deal approved in the UK Parliament
  • German 10-Year Bunds are higher with yields down -1.7 basis points to 0.353%7%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are higher with yields down -3.7 basis points to 1.391%
     

Asian Stocks

  • Asia stocks finished its last trading day of the week mixed on light volume with both Japanese and Indian markets closed for holidays 
  • The Hang Seng ended down -0.35%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise declined -0.55%, and the CSI 300 was -2.21%
  • The Wall Street Journal reports that the US government is reaching out to key allies in an attempt to persuade them to encourage local telecommunications companies to avoid using equipment from Chinese electronics manufacturer Huawei Technologies.
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 0.35x
  • 4 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 0 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 0 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 0 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Alphabet Inc 1917 7.29 12 7 0.0% 1.96%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The 628 4.86 12 18 -0.14% 3.0%
Morgan Stanley 627 7.29 3 3 -0.02% 3.62%
Microsoft Corp 570 4.43 30 30 4.61% 4.81%
Bank of America Corp 517 6.86 3 8 -0.1% 1.75%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
BlackRock Inc 390 9.14 4 5 -0.05% -3.62%
Emerson Electric Co 47 8.29 -11 -12 3.52% 3.33%
Medtronic PLC 181 8.29 -1 2 2.05% 1.95%
NIKE Inc 143 8 -1 -4 0.0% 4.95%
ConocoPhillips 38 7.71 11 11 -2.02% 7.08%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

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ETF 30D IV 30D IV
Percentile
90D IV 90D IV
Percentile
90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV
Percentile
30D IV-
20D HV
30D IV-20D HV
Percentile
90D IV-
60D HV
90D IV-60D HV
Percentile
SPY 18.49 94.44% 18.22 97.22% 0.99 18.45% -0.71 36.51% 1.61 46.43%
QQQ 24.65 90.87% 23.56 96.43% 0.96 23.81% -6.26 18.25% -2.01 27.78%
IWM 21.53 94.05% 20.47 96.83% 0.95 15.87% -0.71 26.59% 1.22 36.51%
FEZ 19.34 91.27% 17.05 86.11% 0.88 7.34% 2.69 77.78% 0.57 57.74%
EEM 25.97 97.22% 22.61 94.84% 0.87 1.59% -0.91 41.07% -1.48 30.56%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
COPART INC CPRT Industrials Commercial Services & Supplies 5.73% 0.54% 13.88%
NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP NXST Consumer Discretionary Media 4.7% -6.82% -0.99%
MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE VAC Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 4.65% 0.29% -56.69%
WEX INC WEX Information Technology IT Services 3.66% -0.99% 9.49%
VAIL RESORTS INC MTN Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 3.42% 3.51% 25.13%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER CO AEP Utilities Electric Utilities -2.83% -0.63% 8.05%
PPL CORP PPL Utilities Electric Utilities -2.58% -4.9% 4.54%
DUKE ENERGY CORP DUK Utilities Electric Utilities -2.37% 1.1% 8.34%
CMS ENERGY CORP CMS Utilities Multi-Utilities -1.85% 0.51% 10.91%
MCCORMICK & CO INC MKC Consumer Staples Food Products -1.53% -2.23% 36.86%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS AGIO Health Care Biotechnology -5.61% -2.46% 3.88%
DYCOM INDUSTRIES INC DY Industrials Construction & Engineering -5.36% -11.2% -56.3%
TENABLE HOLDINGS INC TENB Information Technology Software -2.68% -8.7% -16.14%
ALLAKOS INC ALLK Health Care Biotechnology -2.03% -1.94% 52.9%
ROKU INC ROKU Consumer Discretionary Household Durables -1.5% -7.07% -25.75%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
CALIFORNIA RESOURCES CORP CRC Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 17.03% 4.19% 22.76%
TANDEM DIABETES CARE INC TNDM Health Care Health Care Equipment & Supplies 13.71% 4.0% 255.31%
AUTODESK INC ADSK Information Technology Software 9.3% 4.24% 23.16%
EDITAS MEDICINE INC EDIT Health Care Biotechnology 9.01% 3.9% -20.46%
ESPERION THERAPEUTICS INC ESPR Health Care Biotechnology 6.73% 5.36% -30.8%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptos

  • Cryptocurrencies are sustaining notable losses as the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is down 3.72% in the last 24 hours to USD$4,329.47 and total cryptocurrency market capitalization losing USD$7bn in the last 24 hours, falling to USD$140bn. Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has fallen 10.50% in the last 24 hours, allowing Stellar (XLM) to flip the forked coin and takeover the position as cryptocurrency’s fourth largest coin. Ripple (XRP) is down about 6% in the last 24 hours to trade at USD$0.41087/token while Ethereum is down 6.44% in the last 24 hours to trade at USD$123.64, its lowest level since May 2017.  
  • France’s tobacco federation, The Federation des Buralistes, has reportedly been approved to sell Bitcoin (BTC) at tobacco distribution locations starting January 2019, although the French central bank does not support the plan. As per French radio station Europe 1, French tobacco retailers have formed a partnership with cryptocurrency startup Keplerk, who will provide a cash register software system to enable the BTC purchases. French tobacco retailers will offer to sell BTC vouchers in denominations of 50, 100, or 250 euros beginning January 1st, 2019. According to the French tobacco federation’s website, 25,000 tobacco retailers across France will take part in the partnership.  
  • In what is being called a “disaster” for the country’s cryptocurrency industry, the Norwegian Parliament has decided to roll back a tax structure that allowed for cryptocurrency miners to be taxed at the same rate as other industries in the country that use substantial amounts of power. Lars Haltbrekken, a Norwegian parliamentary representative, told local news outlet Aftenposten.no, “Norway cannot continue to provide huge tax incentives for the most dirty form of cryptographic output as bitcoin. It requires a lot of energy and generates large greenhouse gas emissions globally.” Prior to this decision by the Norwegian Parliament, Norway’s cryptocurrency mining industry was one of the cleanest in the world, with 99% of energy usage being generated from hydropower.  
  • The Gibraltar Blockchain Exchange (GBX), a venture by the Gibraltar Stock Exchange (GSX), has been awarded a license from the Gibraltar Financial Services Commission (GFSC), the county’s financial regulator. The blockchain platform, which was originally announced in November 2017, hopes to, “become the world’s first nationally regulated digital asset marketplace and ecosystem.” The blockchain exchange currently supports trading of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Ethereum Classic (ETC), and the exchange’s native Rock Token (RKT). 

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Events Calendar

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Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer Company Limited SEHK:1066 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Towngas China Company Limited SEHK:1083 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited SEHK:1833 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: F
CITIC Telecom International Holdings Limited SEHK:1883 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: A
Champion Real Estate Investment Trust SEHK:2778 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Secoo Holding Limited SECO 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Henderson Land Development Company Limited SEHK:12 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
HengTen Networks Group Limited SEHK:136 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Sa Sa International Holdings Limited SEHK:178 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
ENN Energy Holdings Limited SEHK:2688 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Shougang Fushan Resources Group Limited SEHK:639 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Shangri-La Asia Limited SEHK:69 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Jumei International Holding Limited JMEI 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Synthomer plc SYNT 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Information Technology: D
MTR Corporation Limited SEHK:66 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited SEHK:1052 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: A
Swire Pacific Limited SEHK:19 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Sinotrans Shipping Limited SEHK:368 11/22/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Truly International Holdings Limited SEHK:732 11/22/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Li Ning Company Limited SEHK:2331 11/23/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Sun Art Retail Group Limited SEHK:6808 11/23/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
China Youzan Limited SEHK:8083 11/23/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Zhongsheng Group Holdings Limited SEHK:881 11/23/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
China Aoyuan Property Group Limited SEHK:3883 11/23/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
SOHO China Limited SEHK:410 11/23/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
YiChang HEC ChangJiang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. SEHK:1558 11/23/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: A
Minsheng Education Group Company Limited SEHK:1569 11/23/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Yuzhou Properties Company Limited SEHK:1628 11/23/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Miji International Holdings Limited SEHK:1715 11/23/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Kingboard Laminates Holdings Limited SEHK:1888 11/23/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
HC Group Inc. SEHK:2280 11/23/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
AviChina Industry & Technology Company Limited SEHK:2357 11/23/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Beijing Capital Land Ltd. SEHK:2868 11/23/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
China Resources Pharmaceutical Group Limited SEHK:3320 11/23/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: A
Zhongyu Gas Holdings Limited SEHK:3633 11/23/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Greentown China Holdings Limited SEHK:3900 11/23/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Haitong International Securities Group Limited SEHK:665 11/23/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: F
Lee's Pharmaceutical Holdings Limited SEHK:950 11/23/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
SuperRobotics Limited SEHK:8176 11/24/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Uni-President China Holdings Ltd SEHK:220 11/24/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Legend Holdings Corporation SEHK:3396 11/24/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Inke Limited SEHK:3700 11/24/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
China Gas Holdings Limited SEHK:384 11/24/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B

Source: S&P Capital IQ