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Morning Brief

Wake up to the Morning Quant Ride, your global markets update every morning!

Stocks rebounding to start week on the back of a stronger than expected Black Friday

Nov 26, 2018

Market data as of

 

US Stocks

  • Global stocks are jumping this morning with improving investor sentiment following positive macro news out of Europe and Asia and a stronger than expected start to the holiday shopping season in the US 
  • US stocks index futures are advancing to start the final week of November and are pointing to a sharp bounce back in US markets following the sell-off last week with front-month Dow Jones minis +0.99%, S&P500 minis +1.11% and Nasdaq 100 minis +1.54% 
  • Emerging markets stocks ETFs stay positive net inflows of USD$1.24 billion last week 
  • The VIX is  moving down this morning and is currently at 20.49 after closing at 21.52 last week
  • Bank of America (BAC) November 30 OTM Calls, USO December 7 OTM Puts & January 2019 OTM Puts, FXI  December 7 OTM Calls and EEM January 2019 OTM Calls are some of the most actively traded options contracts in the US pre-market
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 2 basis points to 3.059%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has widened 0.13 basis points to 0.23%
  • WTI Crude is currently up 1.43% to USD$51.15/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread up USD$0.28to USD$8.97/bbl
  • Gold is currently little changed 0.21% to USD$1225.65/oz
  • Saudi Arabian oil production has allegedly broken above 11.2 million barrels a day, the highest daily production ever for The Kingdom 
     

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data.
 

  • Eurofins (ERF FP) has confirmed its guidance and that is has lowered its financing costs.  Eurofins made the announcement after Morgan Stanley called into question its growth prospects in a recent note to clients.  Eurofins confirmed its expectation for 5% organic growth, saying its “achievable”.  Eurofins said a number of facts in the Morgan Stanley note are “false”.  Eurofins is rated “Neutral” in our European SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Facebook’s (FB) COO Sheryl Sandberg has seen her star dimmed considerably after Facebook’s recent woes, according to a report in Bloomberg today. The article discusses how she was viewed as “larger than life” previously by many people at the company in the past but today she is blamed by many there for its problems.  The comments from colleagues are that she often was more worried about her own brand that she was about Facebook’s problems.  Facebook is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Picks and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • GameStop (GME) was upgraded by Bank of America Merrill Lynch to neutral from underperform.  Bank of America Merrill Lynch increased its GameStop to USD$16 from USD$9.  Bank of America Merrill Lynch highlights that the sale of its Spring Mobile unit provides a USD$700mn cash infusion that is key for the company.  Short interest in GameStop is 25% of its float presently.  GameStop is rated "Unattractive" in both our US Large-Cap and US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • General Motors (GM) will be closing a manufacturing facility in Oshawa, Canada, just outside Toronto.  The union confirmed there is no car production assigned to the factory past next year.  The Oshawa facility employs 2,200 people and is one of the largest in Canada.  The factory has been there since 1953.  General Motors is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Sock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Kering (KER) announced it will bring all of its digital activities in-house.  Kering has had a JV with e-commerce firm YNAP for the last 7 years but will transition to all digital activities being handled in-house.  Kering is working on a suite of apps with Apple (AAPL) that will be used in stores.  Kering expects the transition to be complete in the first half of 2020.  Kering is rated “Neutral” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.   Apple is rated “Attractive” in both our US Large-Cap and US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Logitech International (SWX:LOGN) reiterates it is not in any acquisition talks to purchase US-based Plantronics (NYSE:PLT).  Reuters reported that Logitech had offered USD$2.2 billion for Plantronics, a 10% premium above last Wednesday's close.  Plantronics traded up as much as 11% during Friday’s shortened trading session before closing +3.74%.  Logitech International is rated “Neutral” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  Plantronics is rated “Attractive” in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Tech Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Novavax (NVAX) was upgraded at Piper Jaffray today to overweight from neutral.  Piper Jaffray expects progress on its ResVax phase 3 trial in 1Q2019 according to its note.  If successful that would mean further trials in the US and EU in 2020, positive according to Piper Jaffray.  Novavax is rated “Top Short” in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • RBC Capital Markets reiterates that they expect the cryptocurrency overhang to impact both NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) for another quarter.  According to research by RBC, the break-even price for Ethereum miners is USD$175 for Ether; currently, Ether is hovering around USD$114, almost 90% off its February 2018 peak.  RBC suggests that the long-term growth outlook for both NVIDIA and AMD remain positive.  NVIDIA is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Tech Global Top Stock Ideas.  AMD is rated “Unattractive” in our US  Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Tech Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • NavInfo, a mapmaker backed by Tencent (SEHK: 700, ADR: TCEHY) has announced it is building a high-definition map of Singapore for autonomous car.  Tencent’s NavInfo move into Singapore would be the first overseas market for the Tencent-backed company.  According to South China Morning Post, NavInfo has already mapped north of 210k kilometers of highway in China -- 5 times the circumference of Earth!  Tencent is rated ”Attractive” in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. 

 

 

European Stocks

  • European stocks are advancing this morning, on pace for the biggest gain this month following news that the EU has agreed to a negotiated BREXIT deal and the Italian coalition government suggests it is willing to negotiate with the EU over its CY2019 budget deficit target 
  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently up +1.03%, the FTSE 100 is higher by +0.87%, the DAX has advanced +1.2%, and the CAC 40 has risen +1%
  • The Italian coalition government is signaling that its CY2019 budget deficit is flexible and it is willing to negotiate with EU officials 
  • Credit default swaps for European investment grade and high-yield bonds are dropping off 2-year highs hit last week 
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 4.41x
  • Banks (+2.54%), Automobiles & Parts (+2.14%), and Insurance (+1.94%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Personal & Household Goods (-0.07%), Food & Beverage (-0.05%), and Health Care (+0.14%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • European energy stocks are rallying alongside the positive move in Brent crude oil prices
  • 12 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 97 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 7 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 64 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is little changed this morning and is currently at 18.55 after closing at 18.97 yesterday
  • EUR€ is currently up +0.247% against the USD$ to 1.1366
  • GBP£ is currently up +0.297% against the USD$ to 1.2852
  • CHF is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.0033
  • German 10-Year Bunds are lower with yields up 2 basis points to 0.36%%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are lower with yields up 2.2 basis points to 1.403%

Asian Stocks

  • Asia stocks start the week positive and are on pace to finished November positive, the first monthly gain in Asia stocks since July 2018 
  • The Nikkei 225 finished up +0.76%, the Hang Seng ended up +1.73%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise up +1.28%, and the CSI 300 was -0.07%
  • Asian stocks, as measured by the MSCI Asia Pacific is now trading a record discount to the S&P500 – currently below lows seen in CY2015 and CY2016 
  • MSCI China Tech has declined 33% since hitting its peak in mid-January 2018, suggesting there may be “value” opportunities in select Chinese tech growth stocks
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 1.56x
  • 20 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 21 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 6 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 21 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 15.67x
  • 4 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 2 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 0 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 0 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Japan 2-Year Government Bonds are higher with yields down -0.1 basis points to -0.14%
  • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are higher with yields down -1 basis points to 0.09%
  • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.9 basis points to 0.23%
  • JPY¥ is currently up +0.195% against the USD$ to 113.18
     

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Alphabet Inc 1602 5.43 12 7 0.0% 1.96%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The 475 4.57 12 18 -0.14% 3.0%
Morgan Stanley 418 5.14 3 3 -0.02% 3.62%
Microsoft Corp 418 4.29 30 30 0.0% 4.81%
Netflix Inc 349 4.43 -10 -11 -0.43% -1.61%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Costco Wholesale Corp 60 7.43 6 10 0.1% 3.2%
BlackRock Inc 300 7.29 4 5 -0.05% -3.62%
Visa Inc 106 7.29 3 5 -0.02% 4.64%
Colgate-Palmolive Co 22 7.14 -17 -19 -2.14% -4.8%
Walt Disney Co/The 156 7 -15 -13 0.87% -2.12%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

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ETF 30D IV 30D IV
Percentile
90D IV 90D IV
Percentile
90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV
Percentile
30D IV-
20D HV
30D IV-20D HV
Percentile
90D IV-
60D HV
90D IV-60D HV
Percentile
SPY 19.57 97.22% 18.52 97.22% 0.95 7.54% 1.4 62.7% 1.93 50.4%
QQQ 26.1 96.03% 24.3 98.81% 0.93 18.85% -1.94 29.37% -1.13 34.13%
IWM 22 94.84% 20.43 96.43% 0.93 9.72% 1.09 46.03% 1.21 36.31%
FEZ 19.87 92.86% 17.3 88.1% 0.87 6.15% 3.76 86.9% 0.8 60.32%
EEM 26.45 98.02% 22.85 95.63% 0.86 1.19% -0.12 53.17% -1.29 32.54%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
MSCI INC MSCI Financials Capital Markets 2.36% -1.21% 17.21%
BERRY GLOBAL GROUP INC BERY Materials Containers & Packaging 1.59% 0.83% -15.79%
HILL-ROM HOLDINGS INC HRC Health Care Health Care Equipment & Supplies 1.55% 0.75% 10.58%
EXPRESS SCRIPTS HOLDING CO ESRX Health Care Health Care Providers & Services 1.54% -0.67% 25.22%
WALGREENS BOOTS ALLIANCE INC WBA Consumer Staples Food & Staples Retailing 1.31% -1.81% 9.88%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
WEX INC WEX Information Technology IT Services -3.11% -6.42% 6.38%
COPART INC CPRT Industrials Commercial Services & Supplies -2.75% -4.16% 11.12%
MASTERCARD INC MA Information Technology IT Services -2.73% -9.46% 18.95%
FLEETCOR TECHNOLOGIES INC FLT Information Technology IT Services -2.15% -7.38% -5.17%
PG&E CORP PCG Utilities Electric Utilities -1.91% 29.55% -62.39%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
CALIFORNIA RESOURCES CORP CRC Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -7.61% -5.28% 15.15%
DEVON ENERGY CORP DVN Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -5.85% -12.92% -44.49%
CARRIZO OIL & GAS INC CRZO Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -5.28% -8.38% -32.76%
PDC ENERGY INC PDCE Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -5.19% -9.39% -38.81%
SUPERIOR ENERGY SERVICES INC SPN Energy Energy Equipment & Services -5.15% -16.78% -48.25%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
HERON THERAPEUTICS INC HRTX Health Care Biotechnology 5.36% -6.72% 34.19%
ALLAKOS INC ALLK Health Care Biotechnology 4.97% -0.32% 57.87%
TENABLE HOLDINGS INC TENB Information Technology Software 4.52% -6.44% -11.63%
AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC AAL Industrials Airlines 4.42% 0.34% -32.42%
AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS AGIO Health Care Biotechnology 3.23% -4.61% 7.11%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptos

  • Cryptocurrency prices spent the weekend in the red with the price of Bitcoin (BTC) down 8.75% on the weekend and total cryptocurrency market capitalization down roughly USD$11bn to about USD$129bn. Among major coins, Stellar (XLM) and Monero (XMR) were among the worst performers, falling 14.76% and 15.53% on the weekend, respectively. Bitcoin Cash (BCH) was the best performer of the weekend among major coins, up 1.02% to USD$209.07. As the weekend came to a close, cryptocurrency prices bounced, sending the price of Bitcoin (BTC) higher by 4.69% in the last 24 hours to USD$3,983.66 and adding USD$7bn to total cryptocurrency market capitalization. 
  • According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, Ohio is set to become the first US state to accept Bitcoin (BTC) as legal tender for tax payments. Although the plan will initially only apply to businesses, the Ohio government plans to extend the option to individual tax payers in the future. The BTC tax payments will be processed by cryptocurrency payments service BitPay. As per the Wall Street Journal report, Ohio state Treasurer Josh Mandel hopes to “plant a flag” with this plan for national cryptocurrency adoption, adding, “I do see bitcoin as a legitimate form of currency.” 
  • In an interview with CoinDesk, Mao Shixing, the founder of the world’s third largest mining pool F2pool, revealed that the firm estimates that between 600,000 and 800,000 Bitcoin (BTC) miners have shut down their mining operations since mid-November, driven by the declining price of BTC and a falling network hashrate. F2pool came to this estimate by accounting for the total network hashrate drop and the average hash power of out dated mining rigs that have a difficult time generating profits. From November 10th's network hashrate of roughly 47mm tera hashes per second (TH/s), the total BTC network hashrate has fallen nearly 13% to 41mm TH/s as of November 20th.  
  • The United Kingdom’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) will investigate 50 cryptocurrency-related entities that are suspected of offering financial services without permission from the UK regulator, according to a report by news outlet The Telegraph. In its report, The Telegraph referenced Andrew Jacobs, a partner with Moore Stephens, who believes that the cryptocurrency price downturn is pressuring the FCA. Jacobs believes that, “The huge sums lost as a result of cryptocurrency prices falling this year will have triggered a rash of complaints to the FCA,” adding, “Now that prices have collapsed, fraud is likely to be exposed”.  
     

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Events Calendar

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Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
MMG Limited SEHK:1208 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
3SBio Inc. SEHK:1530 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Yadea Group Holdings Ltd. SEHK:1585 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Haitian International Holdings Limited SEHK:1882 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc. SEHK:2269 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
China YuHua Education Corporation Limited SEHK:6169 11/26/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Agritrade Resources Limited SEHK:1131 11/26/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. CBRL 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: B
Health and Happiness (H&H) International Holdings Limited SEHK:1112 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
LifeTech Scientific Corporation SEHK:1302 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
China Maple Leaf Educational Systems Limited SEHK:1317 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Suncity Group Holdings Limited SEHK:1383 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Q Technology (Group) Company Limited SEHK:1478 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: F
Genscript Biotech Corporation SEHK:1548 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited SEHK:16 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
AK Medical Holdings Limited SEHK:1789 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
KWG Group Holdings Limited SEHK:1813 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
SSY Group Limited SEHK:2005 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: A
Shenzhou International Group Holdings Limited SEHK:2313 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: A
Shui On Land Limited SEHK:272 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Anton Oilfield Services Group SEHK:3337 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: A
China BlueChemical Ltd. SEHK:3983 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: A
Kenford Group Holdings Limited SEHK:464 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Xiabuxiabu Catering Management (China) Holdings Co., Ltd. SEHK:520 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Shenzhen Investment Limited SEHK:604 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
ZhongAn Online P & C Insurance Co., Ltd. SEHK:6060 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Zhenro Properties Group Limited SEHK:6158 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
China Medical System Holdings Limited SEHK:867 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
RYB Education, Inc. RYB 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
LAIX Inc. LAIX 11/26/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: F
China Lilang Limited SEHK:1234 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Lifestyle International Holdings Limited SEHK:1212 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: A
China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd. SEHK:1359 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
China Everbright International Limited SEHK:257 11/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C

Source: S&P Capital IQ