morning-quant-ride

Morning Brief

Wake up to the Morning Quant Ride, your global markets update every morning!

Stocks declining with uncertainty over US-China trade negotiations at G20

Nov 30, 2018

Market data as of 7am EST

 

US Stocks

  • Global stocks are dropping this morning with building uncertainty over bilateral negotiations between the US and China at the G20 Summit this weekend
  • US index futures are dropping this morning, pointing to a negative start to trading in NY with front-month Dow Jones minis –0.60%, S&P500 minis –0.53% and Nasdaq 100 minis –0.55% 
  • US President Donald Trump implies he is very close to making a deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping ahead of their dinner tomorrow night in Buenos Aires
  • The VIX is moving up this morning and is currently at 19.89 after closing at 18.79 yesterday
  • FXI December 21 OTM Calls, SPY December 07 OTM Puts, EEM December 14 & December 21 OTM Calls and Twitter (TWTR) January 2020 OTM Call are some of the most heavily traded options in the US pre-market
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are higher with yields down -1.65 basis points to 3.0133%
  • The US Treasury 2s-5s Spread has narrowed 1.04 basis points to 0.03%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 1.67 basis points to 0.2%
  • WTI Crude is currently down 1.79% to USD$50.49/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread upUSD$0.98 to USD$8.20/bbl
  • Gold is currently little changed -0.13% to USD$1222.56/oz
  • Global oil prices are dropping as weak November Chinese PMI data points to a deceleration in growth ahead of the OPEC meeting next week
     

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data.
 

  • Allianz (ALV GR) CEO Oliver Baete delivered guidance of 5% profit growth for the next 3 years.  Aliianz provided the exact same guidance 3 years ago leading many to questions why it is simply more of the same.  Investors did not seem to care for his guidance and sent the shares lower.  Allianz has been looking for acquisitions and has been unsuccessful, for now operational improvements will drive profit growth.  Allianze  is rated “Neutral”” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • The CEOs of BMW (BMW), Volkswagen (VOW), and Daimler (DAI GR) will meet with representative of the US government on December 4th.  The idea is to discuss trade and try to find a way forward on auto imports.  The exact details of the meeting have not been released yet, but if confirmed, would be positive for trade sentiment.  BMW is rated “Unattractive” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  Volkswagen is rated “Neutral”” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  Daimler is rated “Top Short” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Callaway Golf (ELY) announced it will acquire Jack Wolfskin for 418 million pounds.  Jack Wolfskin is an active lifestyle brand and Callaway Golf had indicated its desire to expand into that space.  Callaway Golf is rated “Top Buy” in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Cree (CREE) was downgraded at JP Morgan to underweight from neutral.  Cree saw it price target cut to USD$35, down from USD$42.  Cree’s target price implies as 24% drop from yesterday’s close.  Cree is rated “Top Short” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Unattractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • HP’s (HPE) purchase of Autonomy Corp in 2011 is in focus as Autonomy’s ex-CEO Michael Lynch is being charged by US authorities.  The US is charging him with fraud in relation to the valuation used to arrive at the USD$10.3 billion price HP paid.  The US alleges he used fraudulent documents from 2009, 2010 and 2011 to justify the valuation.  HP is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Marriott International Inc (MAR) was hacked in 2014 in what appears to be one of the largest theft of hacked personal data.  Marriott’s Starwood unit has data on up to 500 million guests stolen, including some passport and credit card data.  Marriott International has alerted authorities and is working with law enforcement to determine how this happened.  Marriott International is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • First Analysis Corp upgraded Palo Alto Networks (PANW) to strong buy from outperform.  Palo Alto’s target price was raised to USD$240, up from USD$200.  The target implies a 36% upside from yesterday’s close.  Palo Alto Networks is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
     

 

European Stocks

  • European stocks are declining to finish the month as optimism for a positive outcome from US-China trade talks at the G20 summit wanes 
  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently down -0.51%, the FTSE 100 has declined -0.71%, the DAX has fallen -0.65%, and the CAC 40 is lower by -0.51%
  • The Italian economy contracted 0.1% Q/Q in C3Q2018
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 0.29x
  • Health Care (+0.29%), Oil & Gas (+0.19%), and Telecommunications (+0.15%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Automobiles & Parts (-1.8%), Real Estate (-1.57%), and Banks (-1.22%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • 74 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 37 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 16 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 24 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is moving up this morning and is currently at 18.82 after closing at 18.61 yesterday
  • EUR€ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.1378
  • GBP£ is currently down -0.281% against the USD$ to 1.2755
  • CHF is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.0029
  • German 10-Year Bunds are higher with yields down -0.8 basis points to 0.313%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are higher with yields down -2 basis points to 1.347%
     

Asian Stocks

  • Asia stocks finished the last trading day of the month mixed with stocks in China, Hong Kong and Japan advancing ahead of the G20 summit  
  • The Nikkei 225 finished up +0.4%, the Hang Seng ended up +0.21%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise up +0.35%, and the CSI 300 was +1.12%
  • November has been good to Asian stocks with regional indices gaining USD$767 billion in market value for the month with four of the top performing global regional exchanges located in Asia 
  • China Manufacturing PMI dropped for the 6th straight month and is at the lowest level since July 2016, raising additional questions about a slowdown in the Chinese economy
  • China Manufacturing PMI dropped for the 6th straight month, raising additional questions about a slowdown in the Chinese economy
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 1.32x
  • 50 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 3 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 7 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 6 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 1.38x
  • 20 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 0 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 1 stock in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 0 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Japan 2-Year Government Bonds are lower with yields up 1.2 basis points to -0.129%
  • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are lower with yields up 1 basis points to 0.092%
  • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.2 basis points to 0.22%
  • JPY¥ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 113.48

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right.

Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Alphabet Inc 1768 5.57 15 7 -0.09% 2.18%
General Motors Co 730 6 21 16 5.54% 0.16%
Morgan Stanley 627 7.29 1 3 -0.02% 3.62%
Microsoft Corp 592 6.57 31 30 -0.02% 4.79%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The 498 5.57 -1 18 -0.14% 3.0%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right.

Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Occidental Petroleum Corp 18 8.14 10 16 -10.02% -4.34%
Costco Wholesale Corp 78 8.14 6 9 0.05% 3.15%
Walt Disney Co/The 202 8.14 -14 -13 0.27% -2.7%
Comcast Corp 24 8 4 11 -0.05% 2.99%
International Business Machines Corp 412 7.86 -1 -1 0.0% 0.6%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right.

ETF 30D IV 30D IV
Percentile
90D IV 90D IV
Percentile
90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV
Percentile
30D IV-
20D HV
30D IV-20D HV
Percentile
90D IV-
60D HV
90D IV-60D HV
Percentile
SPY 16.34 82.54% 16.17 84.92% 0.99 19.25% -2.35 26.19% -1.52 32.54%
QQQ 22.22 82.14% 21.27 86.9% 0.96 25.0% -5.63 19.44% -5.51 18.06%
IWM 19.75 86.11% 18.93 88.1% 0.96 19.64% -1.92 19.84% -1.3 23.41%
FEZ 19.99 93.65% 17.04 84.52% 0.85 4.76% 2.39 73.02% 0.35 54.76%
EEM 24.7 92.06% 22.15 87.7% 0.9 5.56% -1.4 37.5% -1.73 26.59%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right

Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
DOMINO'S PIZZA INC DPZ Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 2.3% 7.63% 41.1%
MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE VAC Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 2.28% 6.51% -50.18%
TYSON FOODS INC  -CL A TSN Consumer Staples Food Products 1.92% -1.39% -31.45%
NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP NXST Consumer Discretionary Media 1.86% 7.99% 7.0%
LIGAND PHARMACEUTICAL INC LGND Health Care Biotechnology 1.19% 8.32% 17.18%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
QUEST DIAGNOSTICS INC DGX Health Care Health Care Providers & Services -9.73% -5.82% -9.86%
COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC CBSH Financials Banks -6.15% -5.07% 11.87%
MASTERCARD INC MA Information Technology IT Services -2.82% 4.68% 26.37%
PG&E CORP PCG Utilities Electric Utilities -2.58% 9.64% -50.84%
FIDELITY NATIONAL INFO SVCS FIS Information Technology IT Services -1.96% 2.39% 13.1%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right

Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS INC HTZ Industrials Road & Rail -11.72% 2.44% -21.36%
ACACIA COMMUNICATIONS INC ACIA Information Technology Communications Equipment -7.69% -7.04% 11.62%
AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS AGIO Health Care Biotechnology -7.15% 2.37% 6.25%
SUPERIOR ENERGY SERVICES INC SPN Energy Energy Equipment & Services -4.65% -11.1% -54.2%
ARRAY BIOPHARMA INC ARRY Health Care Biotechnology -4.58% -0.26% 13.9%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
BLOOM ENERGY CORP-REDH BE Industrials Electrical Equipment 11.08% 16.26% -37.05%
ROKU INC ROKU Consumer Discretionary Household Durables 4.79% 1.46% -24.29%
ALLAKOS INC ALLK Health Care Biotechnology 3.9% 14.6% 67.51%
WPX ENERGY INC WPX Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 3.88% 4.1% -0.91%
TENABLE HOLDINGS INC TENB Information Technology Software 3.61% 12.17% -3.98%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptos

  • Cryptocurrencies continued to fall overnight, sending the price of Bitcoin (BTC) down 7.61% in the last 24 hours to just above USD$4,000. Ripple (XRP) is down 6.48% in the last 24 hours to USD$0.360098 while Ethereum is down 6.31% in the last 24 hours to USD$113.37. Among major cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin SV (BSV) is the best performer, falling just 0.72% in the last 24 hours to trade at USD$95.69. TRON (TRX), meanwhile, is the worst performing major cryptocurrency, down 13.67% in the last 24 hours to USD$0.013889 after posting gains in excess of 30% over the previous two days.  
  • A new risk assessment report published by the Financial Information Unit (FIU), a division of South Korea’s Financial Services Commission, finds that traditional banks are more vulnerable to money laundering and terrorist financing risks than cryptocurrencies. The report studies South Korea’s domestic financial sector, which includes banks, securities companies, mutual financing companies, credit card services, insurers, cryptocurrency exchanges. The report finds that, while banks have better systems to combat money laundering and financing activities, they are still more exposed to the risks than other businesses. Additionally, the report notes that cryptocurrencies are less likely to be used for terrorist financing than banks, but they are still vulnerable to the same criminal activities.  
  • Microsoft’s Japanese arm is partnering with blockchain startup LayerX with an aim of accelerating uptake of blockchain technology in Japan. The partnership will leverage Microsoft’s Azure Blockchain-as-a-Service (BaaS) solution in order to promote blockchain technology in the Japanese economy. LayerX is a joint venture between news application Gunosy and advisory service AnyPay that provides consulting services and oversees blockchain implementation on the enterprise level. “We will support the introduction process in its entirely, even down to technical support of finished implementations,” reads a joint press release. 
  • Paul Donovan, Global Chief Economist for UBS Wealth management, reiterated his distrust for cryptocurrencies while speaking on CNBC’s Fast Money, calling Bitcoin “fundamentally flawed”. Earlier this week, Donovan published a blog post titled, “I come to bury Bitcoin, not to praise it,” where he detailed his criticisms of the benchmark digital asset. “I think anyone with a high school education in economics has been a Bitcoin skeptic right from the start,” Donovan said on Fast Money, adding, “These things were never going to be currencies, they’re not going to be currencies at any point in the future; they’re fatally flawed.”
     

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

Events Calendar

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right

Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
China Aoyuan Property Group Limited SEHK:3883 11/30/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
SOHO China Limited SEHK:410 11/30/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
YiChang HEC ChangJiang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. SEHK:1558 11/30/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: A
Minsheng Education Group Company Limited SEHK:1569 11/30/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Yuzhou Properties Company Limited SEHK:1628 11/30/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Miji International Holdings Limited SEHK:1715 11/30/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Kingboard Laminates Holdings Limited SEHK:1888 11/30/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
HC Group Inc. SEHK:2280 11/30/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
AviChina Industry & Technology Company Limited SEHK:2357 11/30/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
Beijing Capital Land Ltd. SEHK:2868 11/30/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
China Resources Pharmaceutical Group Limited SEHK:3320 11/30/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: A
Zhongyu Gas Holdings Limited SEHK:3633 11/30/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Greentown China Holdings Limited SEHK:3900 11/30/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Haitong International Securities Group Limited SEHK:665 11/30/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: F
SCUD Group Limited SEHK:1399 11/30/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: F
China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited SEHK:144 11/30/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Hingtex Holdings Limited SEHK:1968 11/30/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: F
China New Higher Education Group Limited SEHK:2001 11/30/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
E-House (China) Enterprise Holdings Limited SEHK:2048 11/30/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
China Minsheng Financial Holding Corporation Limited SEHK:245 11/30/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: F
China Xinhua Education Group Limited SEHK:2779 11/30/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Tracker Fund Of Hong Kong SEHK:2800 11/30/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
China Shineway Pharmaceutical Group Limited SEHK:2877 11/30/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B
China High Speed Transmission Equipment Group Co., Ltd. SEHK:658 11/30/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
EPI (Holdings) Limited SEHK:689 11/30/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Tianneng Power International Limited SEHK:819 11/30/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Dongyue Group Limited SEHK:189 11/30/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Legend Holdings Corporation SEHK:3396 12/1/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Inke Limited SEHK:3700 12/1/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
China Gas Holdings Limited SEHK:384 12/1/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: B

Source: S&P Capital IQ