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Morning Brief

Wake up to the Morning Quant Ride, your global markets update every morning!

International stocks are mixed as US index futures rally following yesterday’s US Fed induced sell-off

Dec 20, 2018

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Market data as of 7am EST

 

US Stocks

  • US Index futures pared early AM losses and are now rallying 2 hours ahead of the US open with front-month Dow Jones minis +0.34%, S&P 500 minis +0.39%, and Nasdaq 100 minis +0.54% 
  • Following yesterday’s sell-off, the S&P 500 is barreling towards its first formal “bear market” in a decade with the benchmark US index down nearly 15% since reaching its high in September 2018
  • The VIX is lower this morning and is currently at 24.84 after closing at 25.58 yesterday
  • SPY December 21 OTM Puts, December 21 EEM OTM Calls & Puts, and Bank of America (BAC) December 21 OTM Calls are some of the most actively traded options contracts in the US pre-market
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 1.6 basis points to 2.7708%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has widened 0.16 basis points to 0.11%
  • WTI Crude is currently up 2.08% to USD$47.2/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread down USD$-3.68 to USD$7.65/bbl
  • Gold is currently up 1.07% to USD$1256.43/oz

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data.
 

  • Accenture (ACN) reports an earnings beat and a revenue forecast with a midpoint that misses the average analyst estimate. Accenture generated an EPS of USD$1.96 in FY1Q2019 while analysts expected USD$1.85. Accenture sees FY2Q2019 revenue between USD$10.1bn and USD$10.4bn while analysts’ consensus calls for USD$10.31bn. Accenture is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Airbus (ENXTPA:AIR) is being investigated by the US Justice Department, according to a report in the French press.  The investigation would parallel investigations in France and England.  The press report said the company could face billions in fines as a result of the investigations.  Airbus is rated “Neutral” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Altria (MO) is in talks to acquire a stake in e-cigarette maker Juul, according to a report in Bloomberg.  Altria is going to buy a stake valued at USD$12.8 billion, the article reports.  If the investment is competed, it will value Juul at USD$38 billion making it the second most valuable private company behind Uber.  Altria is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Amazon (AMZN) has seen the number of Prime members who buy groceries with Amazon decline in 2018 compared with 2017 in the wake of its acquisition of Whole Foods.  This comes from a UBS survey of consumers.  UBS commented that this was surprising given the USD$13.7 billion it spent to acquire Whole Foods.  Amazon is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Apple (AAPL) is tweaking the software in its iPhones in Germany in an effort to head of a legal challenge from Qualcomm (QCOM), according to a report in the Financial Times.  Apple is making the move ahead of a ruling expected today in Munich.  Apple and Qualcomm are locked in a global legal battle over the royalties Apple pays Qualcomm for the use of its chips.  Apple is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.  Qualcomm is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Bank of America Corp. (BAC) Chairman and CEO Brian Monynihan appeared on Bloomberg Television on Wednesday and admitted, “We got a little too careful,” in reference to the company’s capital markets business, adding, “We lost some share in mid-size client M&A deals in the United States.” In response, Bank of America is giving its capital markets dealmakers to set out in search of opportunities to regain market share. Bank of America is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Embraer (ERJ) finalized an order with Republic Airways (RJETQ) for 100 E175s.  The order has previously been announced and now the details have been completed.  As part of the deal Republic Airways can convert any number of the planes to Embraer’s E2 platform.  Embraer is rated “Neutral” in our Brazil All-Cap Global Top Picks.  Republic Airways is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Facebook (FB) is being sued by Washington, DC over its privacy policies.  Facebook violated DC’s Consumer Protection regulations the suit alleges.  Facebook was lax in the oversight of third-party applications, according to the allegations.  Facebook is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Nike (NKE) is set to report earnings after the close today as the company’s stock nears bear market territory. Nike shares are down 19.8% since their YTD high of USD$86.04 on September 21st. Analysts expect Nike to report earnings between USD$0.45/share and USD$0.50/share. Nike is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Softbank Corp (TSE: 9434), the telecom spin-off of the Softbank Group (TSE: 9984), fell 14.5% in its first day of trading.  Softbank Group raised almost USD$24 billion and the stock lost a historic USD$3.5 billion in its first day of trading, a record.  No other IPO has ever lost that much rain in its first day of trading.  Softbank Group is rated “Neutral” in our Japan Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  Softbank Corp is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Tencent (TCEHY, SEHK: 700) will invest USD$1 billion in Indian food-delivery service Swiggy.  This is Swiggy’s third round of funding in 2018 and includes a number of investment firms as well.  Since its last round of funding Swiggy has expanded to 42 additional cities and seeks to keep expanding at a torrid pace.  Tencent is rated “Attractive” in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA) reports stronger-than-expected FY1Q2019 earnings, posting adjusted EPS of USD$1.46/share while Street consensus called for USD$1.43/share. Walgreens total group revenues rose slightly under 10% y/y to USD$33.8bn in FY1Q2019 while management guided fiscal year earnings growth of between 7% and 12%. Additionally, management discussed a plan to, “aggressively cut costs,” that will save the company USD$1bn/year within three years. Walgreens is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas.
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European Stocks

  • European stocks are declining to end the week but are bouncing off earlier morning session lows as traders digest future interest rate hikes
  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently down -0.84%, the FTSE 100 has declined -0.28%, the DAX has fallen -0.9%, and the CAC 40 is lower by -1.32%
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 0.22x
  • Oil & Gas (-1.79%), Telecommunications (-0.01%), and Basic Resources (-2.72%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Automobiles & Parts (-0.73%), Food & Beverage (-0.36%), and Utilities (+0.13%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • 17 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 112 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 8 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 51 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is little changed this morning and is currently at 19.62 after closing at 19.6 yesterday
  • EUR€ is currently up +0.835% against the USD$ to 1.1471
  • GBP£ is currently up +0.73% against the USD$ to 1.2702
  • CHF is currently up +0.746% against the USD$ to 1.0129
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are higher with yields down -0.3 basis points to 1.271%

Asian Stocks

  • Asian stocks closed negative in overnight trading following the decision by the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates with language that was less dovish than expected 
  • The Nikkei 225 finished down --2.84%, the Hang Seng ended down -0.94%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise declined -1.03%, and the CSI 300 was -0.77%
  • The Bank of Japan kept its target benchmark interest rates unchanged 
  • The Japanese Topix has formally entered a “bear market” following the drop in Japanese stocks earlier this morning
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 0.05x
  • 0 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 91 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 0 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 31 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 0.11x
  • 4 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 7 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 0 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 4 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Japan 2-Year Government Bonds are lower with yields up 0.5 basis points to -0.145%
  • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are higher with yields down -0.8 basis points to 0.027%
  • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 1.3 basis points to 0.17%
  • JPY¥ is currently down -0.711% against the USD$ to 111.68
     

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

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Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
International Business Machines Corp 135 2.14 0 -1 0.23% 0.64%
BlackRock Inc 86 1.43 -6 1 -1.88% -5.43%
Johnson & Johnson 84 2.71 -2 12 -0.11% 1.69%
Apple Inc 72 0.29 -15 -22 -1.27% -0.65%
Microsoft Corp 63 1 -1 30 -0.12% 4.61%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Mastercard Inc 18 5.14 2 19 -0.05% 4.25%
Walt Disney Co/The 23 3.71 -3 -15 -0.94% -3.05%
UnitedHealth Group Inc 8 3.14 0 21 0.4% 5.17%
Caterpillar Inc 5 2.86 0 4 0.11% 2.75%
Target Corp 4 2.86 -8 -2 -0.17% 0.49%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

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ETF 30D IV 30D IV
Percentile
90D IV 90D IV
Percentile
90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV
Percentile
30D IV-
20D HV
30D IV-20D HV
Percentile
90D IV-
60D HV
90D IV-60D HV
Percentile
SPY 22.05 98.41% 20.99 99.6% 0.95 7.94% 0.26 50.4% 0.79 45.63%
QQQ 27.95 98.02% 26.99 99.6% 0.97 31.75% -1.41 39.68% -2.65 31.35%
IWM 26.78 99.21% 24.58 99.6% 0.92 8.13% 1.89 61.11% 1.41 45.63%
FEZ 21.63 96.03% 19.68 96.43% 0.91 12.7% 2.38 73.41% 2.19 75.4%
EEM 25.33 94.05% 24.12 98.02% 0.95 20.24% 2.74 79.37% -0.82 43.85%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

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Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
PG&E CORP PCG Utilities Electric Utilities 3.12% -10.54% -62.77%
HERSHEY CO HSY Consumer Staples Food Products 2.81% -1.57% -1.57%
CME GROUP INC CME Financials Capital Markets 1.49% -1.63% 26.39%
PPL CORP PPL Utilities Electric Utilities 0.93% -8.36% -2.35%
EXPRESS SCRIPTS HOLDING CO ESRX Health Care Health Care Providers & Services 0.81% -1.17% 24.17%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE VAC Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure -3.62% -7.35% -68.44%
FACTSET RESEARCH SYSTEMS INC FDS Financials Capital Markets -3.61% -12.62% 6.19%
STERLING BANCORP STL Financials Banks -3.34% -8.72% -41.48%
DARDEN RESTAURANTS INC DRI Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure -3.15% -4.55% 7.11%
MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS MLM Materials Construction Materials -3.05% -4.23% -26.15%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
SUPERIOR ENERGY SERVICES INC SPN Energy Energy Equipment & Services -10.54% -16.91% -108.39%
LAREDO PETROLEUM INC LPI Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -8.89% -21.14% -116.97%
PATTERSON-UTI ENERGY INC PTEN Energy Energy Equipment & Services -7.93% -20.16% -75.3%
ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC ACAD Health Care Biotechnology -7.68% -15.79% -65.67%
ALLAKOS INC ALLK Health Care Biotechnology -16.84% -26.95% 41.17%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
GENERAL ELECTRIC CO GE Industrials Industrial Conglomerates 5.23% 13.39% -82.5%
AVALARA INC AVLR Information Technology Software 1.82% 6.07% -33.35%
PLAINS GP HOLDINGS LP PAGP Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 1.27% -2.81% 0.33%
GREENSKY INC GSKY Information Technology IT Services 1.23% -1.87% -100.91%
PBF ENERGY INC PBF Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 1.11% -2.4% -7.9%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptos

  • Cryptocurrencies are continuing to move higher following a harsh one-month downturn as the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is up 6.36% in the last 24 hours, trading just above the USD$4,100 level. Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is leading the broader market in gains, up 37.88% to USD$165.69 -- BCH is up 102.53% since Monday. EOS (EOS) lags major cryptocurrencies today, flat in the last 24 hours and trading at USD$2.71. Total cryptocurrencies market capitalization has added USD$8bn in the last 24 hours and currently sits at USD$132.6bn.  
  • A new research report published by Chainalysis finds that only 37% of total Bitcoin (BTC) address are, “economically relevant.” Among the total 460mm addresses on the BTC network, 172mm addresses actually hold BTC. Additionally, out of those 172mm addresses that hold BTC, 86%, or 147mm addresses, are owned by a named service rather than individuals. 
  • Civil, a prospective blockchain media startup whose token sale flopped earlier this year, is set to launch in February. Civil set out a goal earlier in 2018 to generate USD$8.00mm of capital through its token sale, but only raised USD$1.43mm from 1,012 investors. Despite this, Civil will launch in February with a plan to sell its SVL tokens again, this time without time limits, soft caps, or hard caps.  
  • Changpeng Zhao, CEO and Co-Founder of Binance, called 2018 a, “correction year,” for cryptocurrencies and expressed optimism for the industry’s future in a Bloomberg interview published Wednesday.  In the interview, Zhao discussed that he believes the industry will continue to grow from developers who make applications with, “real use cases,” that will drive cryptocurrency adoption. Zhao added that the bear market is not affecting the plans of Binance, saying that they plan to launch two or three exchanges, “in the next month or so,” and adding, “None of our plans changed, we are still pushing forward very aggressively.” 
     

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

High Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for CryptocurrenciesHigh Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for Cryptocurrencies

Events Calendar

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Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
iKang Healthcare Group, Inc. KANG 12/20/2018 Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. WBA 12/20/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Staples: B
Carnival Corporation CCL 12/20/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Discretionary: A
Conagra Brands, Inc. CAG 12/20/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Staples: B
NIKE, Inc. NKE 12/20/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Consumer Discretionary: B
Cintas Corporation CTAS 12/20/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Industrials: B
Adobe Inc. ADBE 12/20/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Information Technology: C
Sanderson Farms, Inc. SAFM 12/20/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F, US Consumer Staples: C
Prada S.p.A SEHK:1913 12/20/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
CarMax, Inc. KMX 12/20/2018 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: C
Greentown Service Group Co. Ltd. SEHK:2869 12/20/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
SIG plc SHI 12/21/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
CLPS Incorporation CLPS 12/26/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. LW 1/4/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Consumer Staples: C
RPM International Inc. RPM 1/4/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
SYNNEX Corporation SNX 1/6/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Information Technology: C

Source: S&P Capital IQ

 

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