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Morning Brief

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Global stocks decline as US index futures retrace a third of yesterday’s Boxing Day surge

Dec 27, 2018

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Market data as of 7am EST

 

US Stocks

  • US stocks index futures are retracing nearly a third of yesterday’s Boxing Day rally with front-month Dow Jones minis –1.74%, S&P 500 minis –1.67%, and Nasdaq 100 minis –1.63%
  • According to investment research firm AJ Bell, there have been 17 5%+ trading days for the S&P 500 since 1970.  Of those 17, 8 happened during the period of 2007 to 2009 while another 3 happened during the period of 2000-2003 -- AJ Bell suggests yesterday’s Boxing Day doesn’t remove the risk that we may be entering a bear market for the S&P 500
  • The VIX is moving up this morning and is currently at 32.15 after closing at 30.09 yesterday
  • Bank of America (BAC) December 28 & January 17 OTM Calls, SPY March 15 & January 18 OTM Puts, HYG March 19 OTM Puts, and EFA January 18 OTM Puts are some of the most actively traded options contracts in the US pre-market 
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are higher with yields down -3.59 basis points to 2.772%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.76 basis points to 0.19%
  • WTI Crude is currently up 9.19% to USD$46.22/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread down USD$-11.59 to USD$6.65/bbl
  • Gold is currently up 0.31% to USD$1271.03/oz
     

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data.
 

  • Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) and Walmart Inc. (WMT) may face headwinds in India after the country tightened its rules for foreign investment in e-commerce companies. India’s Trade Ministry passed measures on Wednesday that will require all e-commerce companies to treat vendors equally to prevent predatory pricing and deep discounts that reportedly threatened the country’s domestic retail industry. Amazon is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas. Walmart is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Apple Inc. (AAPL) will be the best performing FAANG stock in 2019, according to notable analyst Gene Munster. Munster believes that Apple will focus on revenue and earnings growth rather than iPhone sales in 2019 to deliver value to shareholders. With just a few days left in 2018, Apple is the second-worst performing company in the FAANG group. Apple is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Banca Carige SpA (BIT: CRM) shares are plunging after its largest shareholder blocked a planned share sale to boost bank equity.  Malacalza Investimenti owns 27.5% of the bank and blocked the 400-million-euro sale of share at a December 22nd shareholders meeting.  It is not clear how Banca Carige will proceed.  Banca Carige is rated “Neutral” in our European SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Earthstone Energy (ESTE) saw its price target cut yesterday at Imperial Capital.  Earthstone Energy’s price target was cut to USD$8 from USD$12.  The cut came in the wake of Earthstone’s decision to cancel its purchase of Sabalo Holdings.  Earthstone Energy is rated “Neutral” in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas
  • NEC (TSE: 6701) has agreed to pay 8 billion Danish kroner (USD$1.2 billion) for KMD Holdings (NZSE: KMD).  NEC is making the acquisition to expand its services offerings in Europe.  KMD gives NEC entry into lucrative government services contracts.  NEC is rated “Top Buy” in our Japan Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  KMD Holdings is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) is searching for a crew member feared to have fallen overboard during one of its cruises.  A British entertainer working on a Royal Caribbean ship did not report to work and is seen on camera footage on the ship’s dock area and then not again, leading to conclude he fell overboard.  A search is underway.  Royal Caribbean Cruises is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • A Sinopec (SEHK: 386) trading unit has suspended 2 executives after the unit incurred losses.  The Sinopec unit Unipec handles the trading of crude for the giant refining company and is very active in world markets.  The executives were said to be suspended for “work reasons” without any further information.  Many trading firms were poorly positioned during the recent crude weakness.  Sinopec is rated “Attractive” in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is, “poised to generate improved profitability and cash flow,” which, “puts the risk of a capital raise in the background for now,” wrote Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives in a note to clients. Wedbush forecasts a price target of USD$440/share for the electric car maker while maintaining an outperform rating. Ives added in his note to clients that Tesla, “has turned the corner on Model 3 production,” and, “demand looks very strong into 2019 and beyond based on underlying drivers for the electric vehicle market.” Tesla is rated “Top Short” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Vinci SA (ENXTPA: DG) has announced it will acquire London’s Gatwick Airport.  Vinci will pay USD$3.7 billion for 50.1%  of the airport as it was anxious to add to its portfolio.  Sovereign wealth funds from Abu Dhabi and Australia are selling.  Vinci is rated “Top Buy” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas
  • Visa (V) has agreed to pay 61 pence per share for all of Earthport (LSE: EPO).  The deal values Earthport at 198 million pounds on a fully diluted basis.  Visa is paying a 250% premium for Earthport.  Visa is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.  Earthport is not rated on our Global Top Stock Ideas.
     
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European Stocks

  • European stocks are sinking this morning during their first trading session since the Christmas holiday 
  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently down -0.96%, the FTSE 100 has declined -0.91%, the DAX has fallen -1.68%, and the CAC 40 is lower by -0.09%
  • The FTSE 100 is now dipping to a two year low  
  • European stocks are on pace for their worst year since 2008 with outflows of approximately USD$70 billion from European mutual funds
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 0.33x
  • Retail (-0.18%), Technology (-0.25%), and Banks (-0.3%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Utilities (-2.19%), Real Estate (-1.76%), and Basic Resources (-1.74%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • 1 stock in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 90 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 3 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 50 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is little rising this morning and is currently at 25.04 after closing at 20.39 Monday
  • EUR€ is currently up +0.308% against the USD$ to 1.1388
  • GBP£ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.2631
  • CHF is currently up +0.418% against the USD$ to 1.0085
  • German 10-Year Bunds are higher with yields down -1.2 basis points to 0.238%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are lower with yields up 2.5 basis points to 1.288%

Asian Stocks

  • Asia stocks finish mixed in overnight trading with the rally in US stocks boosting Japanese stocks while Hong Kong stocks pared gains in their afternoon trading session to finish down 
  • The Nikkei 225 finished up +3.88%, the Hang Seng ended down -0.67%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise declined -0.71%, and the CSI 300 was -0.38%
  • Investor sentiment improved following news that US trade officials will travel to Beijing to speak with their Chinese counterparts about ongoing trade negotiations during the week of January 7th 
  • 0 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 96 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 0 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 123 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 0.25x
  • 0 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 13 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 0 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 5 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Japan 2-Year Government Bonds are lower with yields up 0.3 basis points to -0.124%
  • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are lower with yields up 0.4 basis points to 0.026%
  • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has widened 0.1 basis points to 0.15%
  • JPY¥ is currently down -0.422% against the USD$ to 110.9

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

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Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
BlackRock Inc 149 4.71 -6 1 -2.09% -5.61%
Morgan Stanley 123 2.14 -2 3 -2.4% 1.6%
International Business Machines Corp 96 2 -1 -3 0.43% 0.91%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The 85 1.86 -9 12 -3.42% 0.24%
JPMorgan Chase & Co 75 1.86 -2 8 0.07% 2.59%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Visa Inc 66 5.14 -1 2 -0.03% 4.59%
Occidental Petroleum Corp 3 5 -10 9 -14.07% -17.66%
Biogen Inc 6 4.71 1 19 -0.1% 3.05%
BlackRock Inc 149 4.71 -6 1 -2.09% -5.61%
Procter & Gamble Co/The 10 4.57 2 -4 0.15% 1.66%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

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ETF 30D IV 30D IV
Percentile
90D IV 90D IV
Percentile
90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV
Percentile
30D IV-
20D HV
30D IV-20D HV
Percentile
90D IV-
60D HV
90D IV-60D HV
Percentile
SPY 25.69 98.81% 22.64 99.21% 0.88 3.57% -4.47 17.46% -1.45 35.32%
QQQ 32.08 99.21% 27.83 98.81% 0.87 5.36% -6.19 20.24% -5.56 18.65%
IWM 29.12 99.6% 25.48 98.81% 0.88 4.37% -1.79 22.42% -0.61 28.97%
FEZ 21.76 96.03% 21.05 98.81% 0.97 33.33% 1.04 59.13% 2.26 76.39%
EEM 24.88 91.27% 24.55 98.41% 0.99 38.69% 3.58 86.51% -0.83 43.45%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

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Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE VAC Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 8.6% -4.8% -69.63%
ADOBE SYSTEMS INC ADBE Information Technology Software 8.32% -1.44% 22.69%
LIGAND PHARMACEUTICAL INC LGND Health Care Biotechnology 7.14% 3.17% -0.56%
DOLLAR GENERAL CORP DG Consumer Discretionary Multiline Retail 6.94% 1.52% 13.06%
VISA INC V Information Technology IT Services 6.75% -1.85% 13.52%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
PG&E CORP PCG Utilities Electric Utilities 0.77% 1.34% -64.55%
DTE ENERGY CO DTE Utilities Multi-Utilities 0.64% -3.57% 4.45%
CBOE GLOBAL MARKETS INC CBOE Financials Capital Markets 0.12% -0.12% -15.56%
KLX INC KLXI Industrials Aerospace & Defense 0.03% 0.35% -9.68%
EXPRESS SCRIPTS HOLDING CO ESRX Health Care Health Care Providers & Services -3.69% -6.92% 20.48%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
PENNEY (J C) CO JCP Consumer Discretionary Multiline Retail 2.9% -13.35% -120.4%
GREENSKY INC GSKY Information Technology IT Services 2.78% 6.09% -96.04%
HEALTHCARE TRUST OF AMERICA HTA Real Estate Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) 2.54% -5.39% -13.29%
AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS AGIO Health Care Biotechnology 2.46% -10.5% -28.73%
FOREST CITY REALTY TRUST INC FCE.A Real Estate Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) 0.0% 0.2% 5.43%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORP CHK Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 23.58% 3.25% -62.71%
CALIFORNIA RESOURCES CORP CRC Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 19.87% -5.05% -16.32%
LAREDO PETROLEUM INC LPI Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 18.29% -2.97% -111.04%
WHITING PETROLEUM CORP WLL Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 14.47% -10.31% -22.62%
CARRIZO OIL & GAS INC CRZO Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 12.81% -6.72% -71.78%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptos

  • Cryptocurrencies turned broadly lower overnight as the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is down 0.31% to USD$3,793.53. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization currently sits at USD$127.0bn, down about 1% from 24 hours ago. Among major cryptocurrencies, Ethereum Classic (ETC) and IOTA (MIOTA) are the only positive coins, up 4.09% and 1.06% in the last 24 hours to USD$5.12 and USD$0.33166, respectively. Bitcoin Cash (BCH), meanwhile, has fallen the most among major coins, down 3.62% in the last 24 hours to USD$167.13.
  • Projects that conducted their Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) on the Ethereum Blockchain have rapidly liquidated their treasury holdings in November and December 2018, according to data from Diar.  In November, ICO projects withdrew 290,1000 Ethereum (ETH) from their treasury accounts, the largest amount in any month of 2018 at the time -- so far in December, ICOs have withdrawn a massive 423,800 ETH from their treasuries, on pace to double last month’s total.
  • The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) is set to partner with doc.com, a blockchain-based telemedicine and telepsychology firm, to offer basic healthcare services for free in Eastern Africa. The partnership will see doc.com roll out its healthcare platforms to the Eastern Africa market by 2Q2019, according to an official letter. Currently, doc.com offers its platforms in 20 different countries while 130,000 users have used its telemedicine service and nearly 70,000 users have used its, “Emotions,” telepsychology platform. 
     

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

High Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for CryptocurrenciesHigh Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for Cryptocurrencies

Events Calendar

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Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
CT Environmental Group Limited SEHK:1363 12/27/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Sanderson Farms, Inc. SAFM 12/27/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F, US Consumer Staples: C
Prada S.p.A SEHK:1913 12/27/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
SIG plc SHI 12/28/2018 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: C
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. LW 1/4/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Consumer Staples: C
RPM International Inc. RPM 1/4/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. BBBY 1/8/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Consumer Discretionary: D
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. MSM 1/8/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Industrials: C
Farmmi, Inc. FAMI 1/8/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Acuity Brands, Inc. AYI 1/9/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Industrials: C
Constellation Brands, Inc. STZ 1/9/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Staples: C
Lennar Corporation LEN 1/9/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Consumer Discretionary: C
KB Home KBH 1/9/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: D
Delta Air Lines, Inc. DAL 1/9/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Industrials: C
SYNNEX Corporation SNX 1/10/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Information Technology: C
First Republic Bank FRC 1/10/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B

Source: S&P Capital IQ

 

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