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Morning Brief

Wake up to the Morning Quant Ride, your global markets update every morning!

Global Stocks advancing following confirmation that US and Chinese trade officials are set to meet in Beijing next Monday

Jan 04, 2019

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Market data as of 7am EST

 

US Stocks

  • US stocks index futures are advancing sharply this morning ahead of the December Jobs Report with front-month Dow Jones minis +1.29%, S&P 500 minis +1.38%, and Nasdaq 100 minis 1.72% 
  • Investors will be closely following the change in Nonfarm Payrolls (expectations for +184k) and Average Hourly Earnings M/M (expectations for +0.3%): the data will be released at 8:30am
  • Chinese trade officials confirm that US Deputy Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish (and other trade officials) will meet his Chinese counterparts in Beijing next Monday
  • The VIX is moving down this morning and is currently at 23.97 after closing at 25.45 yesterday
  • HYG March 2019 OTM Puts, VNQ March 2019 OTM Puts, and SPY January 04 OTM Calls & Puts are some of the most actively traded options contracts in the US pre-market this morning
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 4.52 basis points to 2.5987%US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 4.52 basis points to 2.5987%
  • The US Treasury 2s-5s Spread has widened 1.98 basis points to 0%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has widened 0.72 basis points to 0.18%
  • WTI Crude is currently up 1.18% to USD$47.09/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread up USD$1.82 to USD$9.16/bbl
  • Gold is currently little changed -0.19% to USD$1291.88/oz

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data.
 

  • Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Verily division, formerly known as Google Life Sciences, has raised USD$ 1 billion in funding to grow its business.  This round of funding was led by Silver Lake, an investment fund backed by a host of large international companies.  Verily is involved in a number of projects including glucose monitoring contact lenses and a medical monitoring smart watch for older adults.  Alphabet is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Apple (AAPL) shares fell 10% yesterday in the wake of its guidance cut for 1Q revenue.  Apple’s action sent global markets lower yesterday.  Apple is now the 5th largest seller of mobile phones in China now, with 4 local players selling more phones and often at a price point well below what Apple sells its iPhones for and now with most if the same features.  Analysts say many local players are more in tune with the tastes of Chinese consumers than Apple.  Apple is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Bayer (DB: BAYN) are trading higher after receiving a favorable ruling in its Roundup case.  The judge has limited the evidence that can be presented by the plaintiffs, a ruing that could potentially benefit Bayer.  Plaintiffs will not be able to allege that Bayer’s Monsanto unit tried to influence regulators who were overseeing its use in agriculture.  Bayer is rated “Unattractive” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Cal-Maine (CALM) reports FY2Q2019 financials that miss the lowest analyst estimates. Cal-Maine generated EPS of USD$0.45/share in FY2Q2019 while analyst estimates ranged between USD$0.50/share and USD$0.55/share. Additionally, Cal-Maine’s sales of USD$356mm missed analyst estimates that ranged between USD$357mm and USD$369mm. Cal-Maine is rated “Neutral” in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Unattractive” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Daimler AG (XTRA: DAI) investors are launching a class action lawsuit in Germany against the company over its diesel engines scandal.  Daimler was late to inform clients too late about its use of defeat devices in its diesel vehicles.  The case has been filed in Stuttgart.  Daimler is rated “Unattractive” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Intel Corporation (INTC) has been upgraded to buy from neutral at Bank of America Merril Lynch. Bank of America also raised its price target for Intel from USD$52/share to USD$50/share. In a note to clients, Bank of America cited that Intel, “provides attractive exposure to growth trends in cloud computing, AI, advanced autos, and 5G.” Intel is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • NEXON Co. Ltd. (TSE: 3659) founder Kim Jung-ju said in a statement that he is considering ways to make the company more competitive. Kim detailed further that he will announce when detailed measures are decided. Nexon is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • PG&E (PCG) is being sued by California power generator Calpine (CPN) blaming PG&E for the Camp Fire.  Calpine is seeking USD$20mn for damages its Geysers Power generating plant suffered in the fire.  Calpine is alleging PG&E’s equipment was to blame for starting the fire.  PG&E is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  Calpine is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Snap (SNAP) was downgraded at Goldman Sachs today to neutral from buy.  Snap's price target was reduced to USD$6 from USD$10. Goldman's target for Snap implies just 5.6% upside to last close.  Snap is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Investors suing Tesla (TSLA) over its CEO’s tweets are attempting to drag his girlfriend at the time into the case.  Plaintiffs say Tesla CEO Elon Musk was with his girlfriend when he sent the texts about taking Tesla private that are the source of the case and that she may have relevant information about the case.  Musk is vehemently against her being subpoenaed.  Tesla is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Texas Instruments (TXN) has been downgraded from buy to neutral at Bank of America Merril Lynch. Additionally, Texas Instruments has its price target lowered from USD$117/share to USD$105/share, implying an 18% upside from Thursday’s close. Texas Instruments is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • United Continental (UAL) is starting its new rules for support animals on its flights today.  United Continental is limiting emotional support animals on flights to only dogs and cats, with no animals less than 4 months old.  United Continental has seen an increase in incidents on longer flights where, it says, animals are not accustomed to being for so long.  United Continental is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
     

 

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European Stocks

  • European stocks advance to start the morning following confirmation that US and Chinese officials are holding in-person talks next week to address the ongoing dispute between the world’s two largest economies
  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently up +1.49%, the FTSE 100 is higher by +1.38%, the DAX has advanced +1.78%, and the CAC 40 has risen +1.35%
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 10.32x
  • Basic Resources (+3.22%), Banks (+2.47%), and Automobiles & Parts (+2.28%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Telecommunications (+0.32%), Food & Beverage (+0.8%), and Utilities (+0.81%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • 19 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 85 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 3 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 35 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is  moving down this morning and is currently at 21.24 after closing at 23 yesterday
  • EUR€ is currently up +0.184% against the USD$ to 1.1415
  • GBP£ is currently up +0.356% against the USD$ to 1.2673
  • CHF is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.0137
  • German 10-Year Bunds are lower with yields up 2.7 basis points to 0.185%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are lower with yields up 4.1 basis points to 1.235%

Asian Stocks

  • Asia stocks finished the last day of trading this week mixed with Chinese and Hong Kong stocks bouncing back sharply following a better-than-expected Services PMI reading for December 
  • The Nikkei 225 finished down --2.26%, the Hang Seng ended up +2.24%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise up +1.97%, and the CSI 300 was +2.4%
  • Japanese stocks diverged from the rest of Asia as Japanese stocks were catching up to the rest of Asia with the Tokyo Stock Exchange closed for the last 4 days
  • CSI 300 large-cap Chinese stocks experienced the most intra-day volatility in this morning’s trading session since October 2018 
  • Caixin China Services PMI returned a reading of 53.9 for the month of December vs. Consensus of 53.0 and 53.8 in November
  • The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announces it lowering its reserve ratio for banks by 0.5 points on January 15 and another 0.5 points on January 25 in an attempt to stimulate money supply -- currently stands at 14.5% 
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 0.39x
  • 1 stock in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 1 stock reached 4-week lows
  • 0 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 15 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 15.67x
  • 0 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 24 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 0 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 8 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Japan 2-Year Government Bonds are higher with yields down -3.7 basis points to -0.178%
  • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are higher with yields down -4.1 basis points to -0.038%
  • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.4 basis points to 0.14%
  • JPY¥ is currently up +0.26% against the USD$ to 107.96
     

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

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Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
BlackRock Inc 165 6 -5 -1 -0.56% -4.95%
Microsoft Corp 137 4.43 -2 29 0.04% 4.64%
Netflix Inc 127 5.14 -3 -8 -2.28% -3.97%
Apple Inc 115 2.14 -9 -23 -8.89% -8.94%
Morgan Stanley 96 3 -3 3 -2.34% 3.04%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
BlackRock Inc 165 6 -5 -1 -0.56% -4.95%
Ford Motor Co 60 5.57 0 -5 -0.37% 1.14%
Starbucks Corp 33 5.29 4 1 -0.01% 4.84%
Netflix Inc 127 5.14 -3 -8 -2.28% -3.97%
PepsiCo Inc 12 4.71 -1 -18 -0.27% -0.49%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

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ETF 30D IV 30D IV
Percentile
90D IV 90D IV
Percentile
90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV
Percentile
30D IV-
20D HV
30D IV-20D HV
Percentile
90D IV-
60D HV
90D IV-60D HV
Percentile
SPY 22.34 96.03% 21.33 97.62% 0.95 10.91% -6.56 13.1% -3.29 25.4%
QQQ 30.25 97.62% 27.91 98.02% 0.92 18.06% -6.39 20.63% -5.93 19.44%
IWM 25.95 95.24% 24.71 97.02% 0.95 23.81% -3.46 15.48% -1.45 23.41%
FEZ 19.58 86.11% 19.57 92.86% 1 46.83% 0.13 48.41% 0.77 63.1%
EEM 24.62 89.29% 24.27 96.03% 0.99 39.09% 6.41 98.41% -0.84 44.84%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

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Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
DUNKIN' BRANDS GROUP INC DNKN Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 2.26% 0.14% 0.25%
TYSON FOODS INC  -CL A TSN Consumer Staples Food Products 2.11% 4.56% -36.56%
INVESTORS BANCORP INC ISBC Financials Banks 1.78% 4.77% -22.28%
SUN COMMUNITIES INC SUI Real Estate Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) 1.19% -0.88% 10.53%
OGE ENERGY CORP OGE Utilities Electric Utilities 0.88% -0.57% 20.68%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
BROADCOM INC AVGO Information Technology Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment -9.32% -7.17% -11.34%
ROBERT HALF INTL INC RHI Industrials Professional Services -6.65% -5.66% -3.77%
ABBOTT LABORATORIES ABT Health Care Health Care Equipment & Supplies -4.83% -5.01% 13.7%
MASTERCARD INC MA Information Technology IT Services -4.62% -2.86% 18.17%
HUMANA INC HUM Health Care Health Care Providers & Services -4.31% -4.5% 7.61%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
QORVO INC QRVO Information Technology Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment -9.49% -7.58% -21.35%
CIRRUS LOGIC INC CRUS Information Technology Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment -8.88% -6.78% -52.94%
AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC AAL Industrials Airlines -7.74% -7.16% -55.72%
ROKU INC ROKU Consumer Discretionary Household Durables -7.73% -0.83% -54.81%
FOSSIL GROUP INC FOSL Consumer Discretionary Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods -7.7% -0.13% 57.49%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
DIAMOND OFFSHRE DRILLING INC DO Energy Energy Equipment & Services 6.56% 7.17% -61.88%
PLAINS GP HOLDINGS LP PAGP Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 4.08% 3.4% 0.75%
PLAINS ALL AMER PIPELNE  -LP PAA Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 3.53% 1.99% 5.35%
BLOOM ENERGY CORP-REDH BE Industrials Electrical Equipment 3.4% -2.92% -87.04%
GILEAD SCIENCES INC GILD Health Care Biotechnology 2.81% 3.16% -9.59%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptos

  • Cryptocurrency prices were stable overnight, although they are still mostly lower in the last 24 hours, as the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is down 1.67% to USD$3,821.25. Ethereum (ETH) and TRON (TRX) are outperforming major coins today, up 1.28% and 1.33% in the last 24 hours to USD$152.26 and USD$0.020265, respectively. EOS (EOS) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) are lagging major coins today, down 3.01% and 2.93% in the last 24 hours to USD$2.68 and USD$160.38, respectively.  
  • Circle’s over-the-counter (OTC) cryptocurrency trading desk processed USD$24bn in 2018, according to an official Medium blog post by the company. Circle, the notable cryptocurrency finance firm backed by Goldman Sachs, executed 10,000 individual OTC trades from 600 different counterparties in 2018. With these statistics, Circle claimed in the blog post to have become a, “core liquidity provider to the entire crypto ecosystem.” Circle also discussed its outlook for 2019 in the blog post, writing, “This year, we anticipate further incremental growth in institutional adoption catalyzed by stablecoin usage, advancements in institutional custody solutions, increasing regulatory clarity particularly in the United States, and improvements and innovation in core crypto infrastructure.” 
  • Coinbase, the notable US cryptocurrency exchange, has yet to give users their Bitcoin SV (BSV) from the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) hard fork that occurred on November 15th, 2018. Although Coinbase has told users it will supply regular updates on the state of users’ BSV holdings, the crypto exchange has yet to do so. From its all-time high of just over USD$200, BSV has fallen more than 50% as it currently trades just under USD$90.  
  • The executive branch of the government of Ireland, The Cabinet, has approved a bill that recognizes the European Union (EU) Fifth Anti-Money Laundering (AML) Directive, a change in legislation that impacts cryptocurrencies. The new AML legal framework establishes a precedent for financial watchdogs extend AML laws to cryptocurrency platforms and wallet providers. The EU is requiring its member states to implement the AML framework by January 20th, 2020. 

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

High Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for CryptocurrenciesHigh Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for Cryptocurrencies

Events Calendar

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Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. LW 1/4/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Consumer Staples: B
RPM International Inc. RPM 1/4/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Helen of Troy Limited HELE 1/8/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Discretionary: B
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. BBBY 1/8/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Consumer Discretionary: D
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. MSM 1/8/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Industrials: C
Acuity Brands, Inc. AYI 1/9/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Industrials: C
Lennar Corporation LEN 1/9/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Discretionary: C
Constellation Brands, Inc. STZ 1/9/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Staples: C
KB Home KBH 1/9/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: C
Delta Air Lines, Inc. DAL 1/9/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Industrials: A
SYNNEX Corporation SNX 1/10/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Information Technology: C
Johnson Electric Holdings Limited SEHK:179 1/13/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date #N/A
Citigroup Inc. C 1/14/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
India Globalization Capital, Inc. IGCC 1/14/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: --
JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM 1/15/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Synovus Financial Corp. SNV 1/15/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated UNH 1/15/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
First Republic Bank FRC 1/15/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A
Wells Fargo & Company WFC 1/15/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Morgan Stanley MS 1/15/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. PNFP 1/15/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW 1/15/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
SLM Corporation SLM 1/15/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C

Source: S&P Capital IQ

 

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