morning-quant-ride

Morning Brief

Wake up to the Morning Quant Ride, your global markets update every morning!

Global stocks rising again today on trade optimism with the conclusion of US-China trade talks

Jan 09, 2019

Actionable and Transparent Quantitative ResearchActionable and Transparent Quantitative Research

 

 

Market data as of 7am EST

 

US Stocks

  • Global stocks are advancing again today with US-China trade talks ending on what is reported to be a positive note after the talks were extended an extra day 
  • Press reports are that the US and China are coordinating a final message and will try to highlight where progress has been made; no statement has been issued yet
  • Reuters is reporting that Fitch Rating’s head of sovereign ratings said that if the US shutdown goes on until March 1st and there is a problem with the debt ceiling later in the year, Fitch may need to consider a cut to the US AAA rating 
  • The US Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its last FOMC meeting; much has changed in the market since then and investors will be scouring the minutes for clues to their next move
  • The VIX is little changed this morning and is currently at 20.41 after closing at 20.47 yesterday
  • EEM March 19 OTM Puts, Verizon (VZ) January 19 Calls and AT&T (T) January 19 calls are some of the most actively traded options contracts in the US pre-market 
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 0.88 basis points to 2.7368%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has widened 0.05 basis points to 0.14%
  • WTI Crude is currently up 2.6% to USD$50.80/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread down USD$-0.42 to USD$8.98/bbl
  • Gold is currently down -0.33% to USD$1281.21/oz
     

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data.
 

  • Advanced Auto Parts (AAP)  was upgraded by Merrill Lynch to buy from neutral.  Merrill Lynch hiked Advance Auto Part’s price target to USD$187, up from USD$160.  Advance Auto Part’s average price target is presently USD$200.  In the last week, Barclay’s also upgraded Advance Auto Part to buy and raised its target to USD$205.  Advance Auto Part is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Carbonite (CARB) was upgraded from equal-weight to overweight at Barclays with a USD$38/share price target. Barclays cites an out-of-line valuation as reasoning for the upgrade. Carbonite shares fell 23% in the most recent quarter. Carbonite is rated “Attractive” in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Delta Airlines (DAL) was downgraded at Imperial Capital to in-line from outperform.  Imperial lowered Delta Airlines’ price target to USD$53 from USD$77.  Delta Airlines’ consensus price target is presently USD$67.81.  Imperial expects fewer fare hikes and an overall more challenging environment in 2019.  Delta Airlines is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Facebook (FB) and Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Google are violating cyber laws in Vietnam, according to regulators there.  Facebook and Google are allowing anti-government content on their sites, inciting anti-government sentiment, which is against Vietnamese law.  Authorities said Facebook and Google have one year to fix the problems and must work with authorities to make that happen.  Facebook is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.  Alphabet is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas
  • Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (BIT: FCA) is reportedly near settling a two-year long criminal investigation by the US Justice Department. The investigation concerns if Fiat Chrysler knowingly sold diesel vehicles that violated emissions rules. In October, Fiat Chrysler allocated USD$810mm to deal with expenses related to diesel probes by the US Justice Department. Fiat Chrysler is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Greggs Plc (LSE: GRG) reported 4Q sale-store-sales growth of 5.2% at company managed stores.  Greggs raised its earnings forecast for pretax profit of 88 million pounds, up from 86 million pounds.  Shore Capital reiterated its hold ratings, saying the company is fully valued at these levels.  Greggs is rated “Attractive” in our United Kingdom All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Lennar (LEN) reported 4Q18 net earnings of USD$796.1 million or USD$2.42 per diluted share.  Lennar delivered 14,15 new homes, up 64% y/y.  Backlog of USD$6.6 billion is up 85% y/y.  Total revenues of USD$6.5 billion is up 71% y/y.  Lennar is rated "Attractive" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Neutral" in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Morgan Stanley (MS) was upgraded to buy from hold at Citi Bank. Across industry ratings, Morgan Stanley maintains 20 buy recommendations, 9 hold recommendations, and 0 sell recommendations. Morgan Stanley is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Tencent (TCEHY, SEHK: 700) will soon introduce its own digital assistant called “Xiaowei” for WeChat.  Tencent is introducing the digital assistant that will link to a large variety apps, allowing users to do things like play music or order food.  Tencent has not made clear how and when Xiaowei will be rolled out.  Tencent is rated “Attractive” in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • United Continental Holdings, Inc. (UAL) has been downgraded by Imperial Capital from in-line to underperform while its price target was slashed from USD$110/share to a street-low USD$73/share. Imperial Capital cites potential weakness in China and valuation re-rating due to low fuel prices as reasons for the downgrade. United Continental is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Weibo (WB) was downgraded yesterday by Morgan Stanley to equal-weight from overweight.  Weibo is feeling the pinch of competition from smaller players and has seen margin compression, both were cited as reasons for the downgrade.  Weibo’s next earnings report is February 12th.  Weibo is rated “Neutral” in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
     
Better Data for Better Investment DecisionsBetter Data for Better Investment Decisions

 

European Stocks

  • European stocks are rising, caught in the global stock updraft, fueled by hopes of progress from US-China trade talks
  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently up +0.85%, the FTSE 100 is higher by +0.98%, the DAX has advanced +0.94%, and the CAC 40 has risen +1.09%
  • UK Prime Minister Theresa May will spend the day trying to convince Parliament of the merits of her Brexit deal, there will be 5 days of deliberations before a January 15th vote  
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 4.13x
  • Oil & Gas (+0.94%), Telecommunications (-1%), and Basic Resources (+2.18%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Automobiles & Parts (+2.99%), Food & Beverage (+0.5%), and Utilities (-0.01%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • 204 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 11 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 9 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 0 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is lower this morning and is currently at 18.85 after closing at 19.48 yesterday
  • EUR€ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.1454
  • GBP£ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.2736
  • CHF is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.0195
  • German 10-Year Bunds are lower with yields up 6.8 basis points to 0.294%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are lower with yields up 1.3 basis points to 1.287%

Asian Stocks

  • Asia stocks rose overnight with investors hoping for positive news from the conclusion of US-China trade talks
  • The Nikkei 225 finished up +1.1%, the Hang Seng ended up +2.27%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise up +2.22%, and the CSI 300 was +1.01%
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 4.23x
  • 7 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 1 stock reached 4-week lows
  • 0 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 1 stock closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 24x
  • 15 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 2 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 1 stock in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 2 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Japan 2-Year Government Bonds are higher with yields down -0.4 basis points to -0.14%
  • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are lower with yields up 2 basis points to 0.032%
  • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has widened 2.4 basis points to 0.17%
  • JPY¥ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 108.86

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

We Crunch the Numbers, You Make the Trade.We Crunch the Numbers, You Make the Trade.

Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right.

Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Microsoft Corp 175 3.86 -2 29 0.11% 4.63%
Apple Inc 173 2 -30 -31 -8.97% -9.56%
Netflix Inc 148 3.57 -3 -10 -2.04% -4.4%
BlackRock Inc 147 4.57 -5 -3 -2.11% -6.55%
Morgan Stanley 141 3.29 -6 8 -2.8% 2.74%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right.

Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
BlackRock Inc 147 4.57 -5 -3 -2.11% -6.55%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The 96 3.86 -10 10 -5.35% -2.07%
Microsoft Corp 175 3.86 -2 29 0.11% 4.63%
Union Pacific Corp 6 3.86 -7 12 -0.15% 4.28%
Comcast Corp 14 3.71 -3 7 -0.61% 2.18%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right.

ETF 30D IV 30D IV
Percentile
90D IV 90D IV
Percentile
90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV
Percentile
30D IV-
20D HV
30D IV-20D HV
Percentile
90D IV-
60D HV
90D IV-60D HV
Percentile
SPY 17.18 80.56% 18.24 89.29% 1.06 44.84% -12.81 1.19% -6.87 4.37%
QQQ 25.55 88.89% 24.48 93.65% 0.96 31.55% -11.68 6.75% -9.67 0.79%
IWM 22.05 86.71% 21.53 91.27% 0.98 32.94% -8.93 1.98% -5.88 1.19%
FEZ 18.1 76.59% 17.66 82.54% 0.98 38.29% -3.01 18.25% -2.14 13.1%
EEM 20.74 65.08% 21.74 75.4% 1.05 75.0% 0.77 60.71% -3.54 9.13%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Quantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily ExecutableQuantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily Executable

Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right

Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
EXELIXIS INC EXEL Health Care Biotechnology 6.11% 16.85% -29.92%
FIVE BELOW INC FIVE Consumer Discretionary Specialty Retail 4.98% 17.16% 56.33%
BOEING CO BA Industrials Aerospace & Defense 3.72% 5.44% 15.7%
VERISIGN INC VRSN Information Technology IT Services 3.58% 5.66% 36.01%
JONES LANG LASALLE INC JLL Real Estate Real Estate Management & Development 3.4% 4.21% -14.8%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
AUTOZONE INC AZO Consumer Discretionary Specialty Retail -1.34% -3.27% 9.68%
AIR PRODUCTS & CHEMICALS INC APD Materials Chemicals -1.16% -1.23% -1.86%
O'REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC ORLY Consumer Discretionary Specialty Retail -1.07% -2.43% 29.88%
FIRST REPUBLIC BANK FRC Financials Banks -1.02% -0.38% 2.65%
VAIL RESORTS INC MTN Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure -0.88% 2.78% 5.42%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right

Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
SAGE THERAPEUTICS INC SAGE Health Care Biotechnology -7.25% 30.08% -25.3%
ESPERION THERAPEUTICS INC ESPR Health Care Biotechnology -4.73% -13.43% -50.28%
U S SILICA HOLDINGS INC SLCA Energy Energy Equipment & Services -4.39% 12.89% -107.53%
ROKU INC ROKU Consumer Discretionary Household Durables -3.13% 28.83% -24.19%
CALIFORNIA RESOURCES CORP CRC Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -2.72% 15.67% -0.3%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
CARVANA CO CVNA Consumer Discretionary Specialty Retail 7.07% 8.47% 66.49%
CREE INC CREE Information Technology Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment 6.32% 3.67% 15.15%
VISTEON CORP VC Consumer Discretionary Auto Components 4.95% 8.76% -69.91%
MATTEL INC MAT Consumer Discretionary Leisure Products 4.62% 16.14% -31.08%
CAESARS ENTERTAINMENT CORP CZR Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 4.51% 9.81% -50.82%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptos

  • Cryptocurrencies edged slightly higher in overnight trading as Bitcoin (BTC) is up 0.06% in the last 24 hours to USD$4,054.14. TRON (TRX) is continuing to lead gains in major coins, up 5.42% in the last 24 hours to USD$0.027569 while Cardano (ADA) follows closely behind, up 5.16% in the last 24 hours to USD$0.051639.  Maker (MKR) and Waves (WAVES) lagged major cryptocurrencies in overnight trading, down 2.42% and 1.83% in the last 24 hours to USD$480.99 and USD$2.92, respectively.  
  • The European Banking Authority (EBA), a European Union (EU) regulatory agency, and the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), an EU securities regulator, have both separately called for bloc-wide cryptocurrency and Initial Coin Offering (ICO) rules. The EBA published a report on Tuesday saying that crypto asset activities do not fall under pre-existing financial laws while urging the European Commission to perform a, “comprehensive,” analysis to determine what actions should be taken at the EU level. Separately, the ESMA also published a report on crypto assets and ICOs Wednesday morning that advises the European Commission on what existing rules that could be applied to crypto assets and what gaps in regulation should be filled with new legislation.  
  • Mikhail Vidyakin, the director of the strategy and reform department of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), said that overregulation in the country is preventing the domestic cryptocurrency industry from flourishing while speaking to crypto news outlet LetKnow on Tuesday. Vidyakin discussed that he believes there are too many institutions in the country trying to regulate cryptocurrencies, highlighting that the NBU, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Securities Commission all technically have the authority to regulate cryptocurrencies in Ukraine.  
  • ShapeShift, a large Switzerland-based cryptocurrency exchange headed by prominent crypto CEO Erik Voorhees, has confirmed that it’s laid off a third of its staff. As per a company blog post titled, “Overcoming ShapeShift’s Crypto Winter and the Path Ahead,” ShapeShift laid off 37 employees while attributing the staff cuts to the, “latest bear market cycle.” The blog post also highlights that the exchange’s, “greatest and worst financial decision was to embrace substantial exposure to crypto assets.”

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

High Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for CryptocurrenciesHigh Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for Cryptocurrencies

Events Calendar

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right

 
Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
Acuity Brands, Inc. AYI 1/9/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Industrials: C
Lennar Corporation LEN 1/9/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Discretionary: C
Constellation Brands, Inc. STZ 1/9/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Staples: C
KB Home KBH 1/9/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: C
Delta Air Lines, Inc. DAL 1/9/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Industrials: A
SYNNEX Corporation SNX 1/10/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Information Technology: C
Johnson Electric Holdings Limited SEHK:179 1/13/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date #N/A
Citigroup Inc. C 1/14/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
India Globalization Capital, Inc. IGCC 1/14/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: --
JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM 1/15/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Synovus Financial Corp. SNV 1/15/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated UNH 1/15/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
First Republic Bank FRC 1/15/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A
Wells Fargo & Company WFC 1/15/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Morgan Stanley MS 1/15/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. PNFP 1/15/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW 1/15/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
SLM Corporation SLM 1/15/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C

Source: S&P Capital IQ

 

Stock Model Portfolios
Multi-factor quantitatively optimized portfolios risk-adjusted to provide investors an ATTRACTIVERISK/RETURN TRADE-OFF