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Morning Brief

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Global stocks taking a breather as upbeat tone from US-China trade talks fades

Jan 11, 2019

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Market data as of 9am EST

 

US Stocks

  • US stocks open lower following weakness in European markets
  • Yesterday’s move in the S&P 500 closed the first consecutive 5-day win streak for the benchmark US index since September – Bloomberg technical analysts caution that if history is any type of guide, the S&P 500 will likely retrace the current gains and test the December 24th lows in the near term 
  • The volatility in retail stocks, exacerbated by the moves in department store stocks following yesterday’s negative guidance from Macy’s (M) and disappointing results from Kohls’s Corp (KSS), is beginning to resemble the levels of volatility observed in tech stocks like Apple (AAPL), Applied Materials (AMAT) and Lam Research (LRCX) 
  • President Trump has cut off negotiations with Democrats on funding for a border wall, saying he would “likely” invoke a national emergency to break the impasse and get the funding he wants
  • The VIX is moving higher this morning and is currently at 19.92 after closing at 19.5 yesterday
  • SPY January 11 OTM Calls & Puts, General Electric (GE) January 11 OTM Calls, Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) January 18 OTM Puts and Ford (F) February 15 OTM Calls were some of the most actively traded options contracts in the US pre-market  
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are higher with yields down -4.32 basis points to 2.6989%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.6 basis points to 0.16%
  • WTI Crude is currently down 1.12% to USD$51.90/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread up USD$0.66 to USD$8.54/bbl
  • Gold is currently up 0.3% to USD$1290.45/oz

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data.
 

  • Activision Blizzard (ATVI) is cutting ties to Bungie Inc, the developer of one of its most successful titles “Destiny”.  The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Activision Blizzard was not happy with the most recent version of the game and had decided to end a collaboration that began in 2008.  Neither company would comment on the story.  Activision Blizzard is rated  “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Alibaba (BABA) backed Megvii is considering an IPO that would value the company at up to USD$1 billion.  Megvii is the owner of Face++, the AI-powered facial recognition software.  Megvii hopes to raise USD$500 million, according to press reports.  Alibaba is rated “Unattractive” in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Amazon’s (AMZN) IMDb will launch a free video streaming service that is ad supported.  This will be Amazon’s first ad supported video service and it will be called IMDb Freedive.  Amazon is looking to grab more of the USD$210 billion digital ad market with this service, a market where it had already risen to #3.  Amazon is hiring new ad sellers as it seeks to grow its advertising business.  Amazon is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Anheuser-Busch Inbev (ENXTBR: ABI) is considering an IPO of its Asian unit, according to a report from Bloomberg.  Anheuser-Busch Inbev is talking to advisers about the potential deal that could raise up to USD$5 billion.  Anheuser-Busch Inbev has been looking for ways to unlock value for shareholders and this could be an obvious choice.  Anheuser-Busch Inbev would look to value to business at USD$70 billion, according to the report.  Anheuser-Busch Inbev is rated “Top Short” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • AO World (LSE: AO) updated 3Q sales, saying they are growing at 8.2%, slowing down from its first half run rate of 9.9%.  AO World maintained its recently lowered guidance.   Shore Capital noted that it is positive there was not another cut in guidance and reiterated its sell rating.  AO World is not rated is rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) is acquiring Florida Chemical Company for USD$175 million from Flotek Industries (FTK).  Florida Chemical Company is a leading provider of citrus oils and fragrances and ADM is adding this acquisition to its stable of natural flavor solutions.  ADM commented that citrus is one of the fastest growing flavor categories.  ADM is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas.  Flotek is rated “Top Short” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Autoliv (ALV) was upgraded at UBS to buy from hold.  UBS upgraded Autoliv in the wake of the departure of its CEO earlier this week.  Autoliv is not rated is rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • JP Morgan (JPM) is increasing its bonus pool for corporate and investments bankers.  JP Morgan will increase bonuses for equity traders the most as that unit has had the best year.  In the first 9 months of the year JP Morgan’s stock traders generated USD$5.57 billion of revenue, a 22% hike y/y.  JP Morgan is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • PG&E (PCG) had its credit rating cut to junk status by Moody’s Investor Service.  PG&E was not offered assurances by regulators that it will remain solvent as ratepayers protested against passing the costs on to them.  The path forward for PG&E is not yet clear.  PG&E is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • PVH Corp (PVH) gave guidance that is above consensus estimates.  PVH expects 4Q EPS to be at least USD$1.75 while present consensus is USD$1.61.  PVH expects 4Q revenue of USD$2.4 billion, matching consensus estimates.  PVH is working on efforts to streamline its Calvin Klein operations.  PVH is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Sharp Corp (TSE: 6753) had its price target cut to 1200 yen from 1400 yen by Morgan Stanley, sending the stock on a 10%+ rally.  Morgan Stanley raised the rating of Sharp Corp to equal weight from underweight.  Morgan Stanley believes its challenges will continue and that Sharp will struggle to hit its own targets.  Sharp is not rated is rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Volkswagen (XTRA:VOW3) warned investors that 2019 will be a challenging year given uncertain economic condition.  Volkswagen’s CEO said, “The headwinds for our business won’t ease given the geopolitical volatile developments”, joining other carmakers in highlighting what a tough year 2019 may be.  Volkswagen is rated “Neutral” in our Europe Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Xiaomi (SEHK:1810) will invest USD$1.48 billion in areas related to AI and Internet of Things (IoT) over the next 5 years, its CEO said.  Xiaomi’s CEO said AI and IoT will become parts of its “core development strategy over that time.  Xiaomi will also introduce its first 5G wireless phone in the second half of 2019.  Xiaomi is rated “Neutral” in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
     
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European Stocks

  • European stocks are little changed with a negative bias this morning as markets in Europe appear to be taking a breather after the recent 5-day rally across global stocks
  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently down -0.28%, the FTSE 100 has declined -0.46%, the DAX has fallen -0.7%, and the CAC 40 is lower by -0.84%
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 0.71x
  • Real Estate (+1.43%), Food & Beverage (+0.7%), and Personal & Household Goods (+0.5%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Automobiles & Parts (-1.96%), Oil & Gas (-0.91%), and Construction & Materials (-0.69%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • 128 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 14 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 10 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 1 stock are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is  moving down this morning and is currently at 18.26 after closing at 18.69 yesterday
  • EUR€ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.151
  • GBP£ is currently up +0.518% against the USD$ to 1.2813
  • CHF is currently up +0.177% against the USD$ to 1.0176
  • German 10-Year Bunds are higher with yields down -2.2 basis points to 0.233%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are lower with yields up 0.3 basis points to 1.277%

Asian Stocks

  • Asia stocks closed this week positive with Chinese stocks posting the largest weekly gain since November
  • The Nikkei 225 finished up +0.97%, the Hang Seng ended up +0.55%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise up +0.58%, and the CSI 300 was +0.72%
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 2.21x
  • 8 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 3 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 0 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 1 stock closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 4x
  • 10 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 0 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 1 stock in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 0 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Japan 2-Year Government Bonds are lower with yields up 0.1 basis points to -0.148%
  • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are higher with yields down -0.7 basis points to 0.017%
  • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.8 basis points to 0.17%
  • JPY¥ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 108.3

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

We Crunch the Numbers, You Make the Trade.We Crunch the Numbers, You Make the Trade.

Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Microsoft Corp 188 3.57 -2 29 0.21% 4.74%
Apple Inc 182 2 -30 -31 -8.69% -9.56%
BlackRock Inc 148 4.29 -5 -3 -3.73% -8.16%
Morgan Stanley 133 3 -6 8 -2.92% 3.07%
Netflix Inc 124 2.43 -3 -10 -2.12% -2.99%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Caterpillar Inc 5 4.29 0 3 -0.18% 2.93%
BlackRock Inc 148 4.29 -5 -3 -3.73% -8.16%
Comcast Corp 19 4.14 -3 7 -0.67% 2.13%
Verizon Communications Inc 39 3.86 -4 13 -0.13% 0.6%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The 101 3.71 -10 10 -5.82% -2.31%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

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ETF 30D IV 30D IV
Percentile
90D IV 90D IV
Percentile
90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV
Percentile
30D IV-
20D HV
30D IV-20D HV
Percentile
90D IV-
60D HV
90D IV-60D HV
Percentile
SPY 16.7 75.2% 17.69 85.32% 1.06 45.44% -13.38 1.19% -6.91 4.37%
QQQ 24.13 80.16% 23.15 86.51% 0.96 31.75% -13.02 2.78% -10.47 0.4%
IWM 21.07 81.55% 21.22 89.68% 1.01 42.26% -10.1 0.4% -6.04 0.79%
FEZ 17.78 73.02% 17.7 82.54% 1 47.62% -3.7 14.29% -2.22 13.1%
EEM 18.46 46.43% 20.4 64.88% 1.11 96.43% -1.98 27.38% -4.37 7.14%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Quantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily ExecutableQuantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily Executable

Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
FIDELITY NATL FINL FNF GROUP FNF Financials Insurance 3.23% 7.79% -9.1%
FIVE BELOW INC FIVE Consumer Discretionary Specialty Retail 2.56% 16.79% 57.3%
BOEING CO BA Industrials Aerospace & Defense 2.52% 12.59% 19.19%
EPR PROPERTIES EPR Real Estate Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) 2.36% 7.46% 13.77%
NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP NOC Industrials Aerospace & Defense 2.16% 7.13% -15.4%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
DECKERS OUTDOOR CORP DECK Consumer Discretionary Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods -10.84% -10.2% 34.76%
URBAN OUTFITTERS INC URBN Consumer Discretionary Specialty Retail -3.47% 0.06% -9.6%
LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC LULU Consumer Discretionary Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods -3.28% 5.67% 50.17%
TAPESTRY INC TPR Consumer Discretionary Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods -2.43% 8.95% -19.63%
FIRST REPUBLIC BANK FRC Financials Banks -1.38% 1.0% 2.04%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
SUPERIOR ENERGY SERVICES INC SPN Energy Energy Equipment & Services -5.76% 15.74% -91.48%
VISTEON CORP VC Consumer Discretionary Auto Components -5.04% 12.65% -70.19%
ROKU INC ROKU Consumer Discretionary Household Durables -4.72% 28.83% -25.97%
ALTICE USA INC ATUS Communication Services Media -3.16% 3.61% -7.96%
CARVANA CO CVNA Consumer Discretionary Specialty Retail -2.37% 12.33% 62.33%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
BLUEBIRD BIO INC BLUE Health Care Biotechnology 5.86% 15.73% -44.22%
SAGE THERAPEUTICS INC SAGE Health Care Biotechnology 5.2% 34.57% -27.79%
GENERAL ELECTRIC CO GE Industrials Industrial Conglomerates 5.05% 10.36% -67.05%
GLOBAL BLOOD THERAPEUTICS GBT Health Care Biotechnology 3.98% 11.0% 7.05%
ESPERION THERAPEUTICS INC ESPR Health Care Biotechnology 3.67% -5.15% -45.43%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

High Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for CryptocurrenciesHigh Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for Cryptocurrencies

Events Calendar

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Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
Citigroup Inc. C 1/14/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Delta Air Lines, Inc. DAL 1/14/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Industrials: A
JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM 1/15/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Synovus Financial Corp. SNV 1/15/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated UNH 1/15/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
First Republic Bank FRC 1/15/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A
Wells Fargo & Company WFC 1/15/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. PNFP 1/15/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
United Continental Holdings, Inc. UAL 1/15/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Industrials: B
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW 1/15/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Kinder Morgan, Inc. KMI 1/15/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation BK 1/16/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Bank of America Corporation BAC 1/16/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
BlackRock, Inc. BLK 1/16/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. PNC 1/16/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
U.S. Bancorp USB 1/16/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. GS 1/16/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Comerica Incorporated CMA 1/16/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
CSX Corporation CSX 1/16/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Industrials: A
Alcoa Corporation AA 1/16/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Fastenal Company FAST 1/16/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Industrials: B
Signature Bank SBNY 1/16/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D

Source: S&P Capital IQ

 

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