morning-quant-ride

Morning Brief

Wake up to the Morning Quant Ride, your global markets update every morning!

JP Morgan speculates that the current cuts to oil production by OPEC+ is meant to create a USD$60/barrel floor for global oil

Jan 14, 2019

Actionable and Transparent Quantitative ResearchActionable and Transparent Quantitative Research

 

 

Market data as of 7am EST

 

US Stocks

  • US stocks are dropping in pre-market trading as investors remain cautious ahead of the kickoff of bank stocks earnings today 
  • The partial US government shutdown is the longest in modern history and continues to weigh on investor sentiment 
  • Front-month Dow Jones minis –0.82%, S&P 500 minis –0.84%, and Nasdaq 100 minis –1.09%
  • Fundstrat’s Tom Lee argues that value stocks are poised to outperform growth stocks in CY2019 
  • The VIX is moving up this morning and is currently at 20.08 after closing at 18.19 last week
  • PG&E (PCG) March 15 OTM Puts, HYG February 15 & April 19 OTM Puts, and SPY January 14 OTM Puts are some of the most actively traded options contracts this morning in the US pre-market
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are higher with yields down -3.39 basis points to 2.6668%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.31 basis points to 0.16%
  • WTI Crude is currently down -1.9% to USD$51.59/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread up USD$0.68 to USD$7.49/bbl
  • JP Morgan speculates that the current cuts to oil production by OPEC+ is meant to create a USD$60/barrel floor for global oil  
  • Gold is currently up 0.41% to USD$1295.51/oz

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data.
 

  • Citigroup (C ) reported weak 4Q18 results, with fixed-income trading  revenue dropping 21% y/y to USD$1.94 billion while USD$2.4 billion was expected.  Citigroup’s largest trading unit saw its weakest revenue quarter since 2011.  Citigroup net income came at USD$4.3 billion, total revenue of USD$17.1 billion came below consensus of USD$17.5 billion.    CEO Michael Corbat said that after the volatile 4Q and its weak results, the main focus for 2019 will be to boost profitability.  Citigroup is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Continental AG (DB: CON) provided guidance a bit below consensus estimates.  Continental expects 2019 sales of 45-47 billion euros while consensus is 46.6 billion euros.  Continental sees 2019 ebitda margin 8-9% while present consensus is for 9.5%.  Continental is rated “Top Short” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Delta Airlines (DAL) had its rating cut at Merrill Lynch to neutral from buy.   Merrill Lynch cut its Delta Airlines rating because it does not sees any near term earnings catalysts.   The near-term wind headwinds for Delta Airlines make it unlikely to see any margin expansion any time soon.  Delta Airlines’ price target was cut to USD$51 from USD$62.  Delta Airlines is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Embraer (ERJ) said part of the proceeds from the sale of its commercial aviation business to Boeing (BA) will be paid as a special dividend.  Embraer expects to yield ~US$3 billion from the sale, net of transaction costs.  Embraer has not decided how much of the USD$3 billion will be paid as a dividend and how much will be retained as working capital.  Embraer is rated “Neutral” in our Brazil All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  Boeing is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • MNG Enterprises has offered to buy Gannett Corp (GCI) for USD$1.36 billion.  MNG Enterprises is offering USD$12 per share, a 23% premium to Friday’s close.  MNG Enterprises owns over 90 newspapers and is looking to add scale to its operations.  Gannett is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Gymboree (GYMB) is close to a bankruptcy filing, according to the Wall Street Journal.  Gymboree is lining up bankruptcy financing in anticipation of a filing, the paper is reporting.  Gymboree will close all of its 900 stores, it is being reported.  Gymboree is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Infosys (NSEI:INFY) was upgraded today at Susquehanna to neutral from negative.  Susquehanna raised the Infosys price target to USD$11 from USD$7.50.  Infosys raised guidance for 2019 and announced its second share buy back in 13 months.  Infosys is rated “Attractive” in our India All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Newmont Gold (NEM) will acquire its rival Goldcorp (TSX: G) in a USD$10 billion deal.  The deal will create a gold mining behemoth.  A statement from Newmont Gold said, “The combination will create the world’s leading gold business.”   The combination of Newmont Gold and Goldcorp will be a company producing 7.9 million ounces of gold per year.  Goldcorp is rated “Top Short” in our Canada All Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  Newmont Gold is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Northrop Grumman (NOC) was upgraded to outperform from neutral by Credit Suisse today.  Credit Suisse sees improving margins this year and cited this as a reason for the upgrade.  Northrop Grumman should see organic sales growth 2-3% in the coming quarter.  Northrop Grumman is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • PG&E(PCG) has informed employees it will seek bankruptcy protection on or about January 29th.  PG&E must inform with a 15-day notice which it is doing.  PG&E’s CEO quit over the weekend and its CFO will take over for now.  PG&E is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Snap (SNAP) was upgraded today at Citi to neutral from sell with a USD$7 reiterated.  Citi sees growth potential and an attractive valuation and cited both in its upgrade.  Snap will introduce an upgrade to its app shortly and that should improve user engagement, the report highlights.  Snap is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas
  • Viacom (VIAB) is in talks to sell a majority stake in its China operations, according to a report in Bloomberg today.  Viacom is in talks with a Chinese entity to purchase the stake, without citing the potential buyer.  The sale talk comes as Viacom struggles to scale its operations in China.  Viacom is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.

 

Better Data for Better Investment DecisionsBetter Data for Better Investment Decisions

 

European Stocks

  • European stocks are declining as weak Chinese economic data points to a continued deceleration in the world’s second largest economy 
  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently down -0.82%, the FTSE 100 has declined -1.03%, the DAX has fallen -0.67%, and the CAC 40 is lower by -0.85%
  • Morgan Stanley stocks strategists argue that UK stocks are trading at attractive valuations following the 4Q sell-off with the median dividend yield now close to 4.3%, a 25-year high (excluding C3Q2008/C1Q2009)
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 0.17x
  • Oil & Gas (-1.02%), Telecommunications (-0.82%), and Basic Resources (-1.13%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Automobiles & Parts (+0.06%), Food & Beverage (-0.66%), and Utilities (-0.58%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • 233 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 6 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 9 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 1 stock are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is moving up this morning and is currently at 18.64 after closing at 17.42 yesterday
  • EUR€ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.1469
  • GBP£ is currently up +0.171% against the USD$ to 1.2866
  • CHF is currently up +0.197% against the USD$ to 1.0187
  • German 10-Year Bunds are higher with yields down -2.8 basis points to 0.211%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are higher with yields down -3.1 basis points to 1.259%

Asian Stocks

  • Asia stocks closed negative to start the week following disappointing December trade data from China
  • The Hang Seng ended down -1.38%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise declined -1.55%, and the CSI 300 was -0.87%
  • Japanese markets were closed for the Coming of Age holiday 
  • Chinese exports dropped 4.4% Y/Y while imports fell 7.6% Y/Y in December -- the worst results since CY2016 and raises worries about the impact of the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China on Chinese growth (and global growth) 
  • For the full CY2018, Chinese exports rose 9.9% and imports jumped 15.8%
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 0.14x
  • 16 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 0 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 2 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 0 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

We Crunch the Numbers, You Make the Trade.We Crunch the Numbers, You Make the Trade.

Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right.

Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Microsoft Corp 147 1.57 -2 29 0.25% 4.69%
Netflix Inc 76 1 -3 -10 -1.93% -2.22%
Ford Motor Co 61 2.14 -2 -3 -3.59% -0.53%
Apple Inc 46 0 -30 -31 -8.74% -9.8%
Verizon Communications Inc 43 2.14 -4 13 -0.19% 0.54%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right.

Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The 22 6.57 -10 10 -9.7% -6.81%
Occidental Petroleum Corp 7 3.29 -11 7 -24.04% -34.28%
BlackRock Inc 7 3.29 -5 -3 -5.37% -9.61%
Morgan Stanley 3 3 -6 8 -5.21% 0.1%
Citigroup Inc 8 2.71 -10 0 -2.32% -1.68%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right.

ETF 30D IV 30D IV
Percentile
90D IV 90D IV
Percentile
90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV
Percentile
30D IV-
20D HV
30D IV-20D HV
Percentile
90D IV-
60D HV
90D IV-60D HV
Percentile
SPY 15.57 69.84% 16.89 81.35% 1.08 52.18% -14.43 0.4% -7.69 2.18%
QQQ 23.14 76.59% 22.56 83.73% 0.97 37.3% -13.86 1.59% -10.98 0.4%
IWM 19.89 76.59% 20.22 85.12% 1.02 45.63% -11.09 0.4% -7.03 0.4%
FEZ 16.53 62.5% 16.22 61.11% 0.98 38.49% -4.1 12.3% -3.74 6.35%
EEM 18 42.46% 19.73 54.37% 1.1 94.64% -1.81 30.95% -4.96 6.35%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Quantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily ExecutableQuantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily Executable

Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right

Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
TECH DATA CORP TECD Information Technology Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components 2.38% 8.82% -8.62%
PREMIER INC PINC Health Care Health Care Providers & Services 2.19% 4.01% 27.74%
BOOZ ALLEN HAMILTON HLDG CP BAH Information Technology IT Services 2.08% 2.03% 22.39%
DARDEN RESTAURANTS INC DRI Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 2.07% 7.01% 14.88%
HUBBELL INC HUBB Industrials Electrical Equipment 1.82% 5.07% -20.53%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
VAIL RESORTS INC MTN Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure -13.6% -15.04% -9.17%
FIVE BELOW INC FIVE Consumer Discretionary Specialty Retail -4.24% 8.52% 53.06%
ALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC ALGN Health Care Health Care Equipment & Supplies -2.19% 6.0% -12.49%
FIRST REPUBLIC BANK FRC Financials Banks -1.83% -3.39% 0.21%
EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORP EW Health Care Health Care Equipment & Supplies -1.5% 2.71% 31.44%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right

Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
PTC THERAPEUTICS INC PTCT Health Care Biotechnology -6.14% -0.45% 71.52%
WHITING PETROLEUM CORP WLL Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -4.28% 10.35% 0.36%
LAREDO PETROLEUM INC LPI Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -4.15% 0.5% -101.64%
OASIS PETROLEUM INC OAS Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -4.03% 4.69% -30.3%
CALIFORNIA RESOURCES CORP CRC Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -3.34% 6.21% 2.96%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
CAESARS ENTERTAINMENT CORP CZR Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 8.63% 21.29% -35.72%
CARVANA CO CVNA Consumer Discretionary Specialty Retail 7.47% 17.86% 69.81%
ESPERION THERAPEUTICS INC ESPR Health Care Biotechnology 3.9% 5.07% -41.53%
PORTOLA PHARMACEUTICALS INC PTLA Health Care Biotechnology 3.48% 21.34% -70.93%
MATTEL INC MAT Consumer Discretionary Leisure Products 2.9% 16.28% -26.83%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

 

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

High Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for CryptocurrenciesHigh Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for Cryptocurrencies

Events Calendar

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right

 
Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
Citigroup Inc. C 1/14/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Delta Air Lines, Inc. DAL 1/14/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Industrials: A
JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM 1/15/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Synovus Financial Corp. SNV 1/15/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated UNH 1/15/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
First Republic Bank FRC 1/15/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A
Wells Fargo & Company WFC 1/15/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Pinnacle Financial Partners, Inc. PNFP 1/15/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
United Continental Holdings, Inc. UAL 1/15/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Industrials: B
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW 1/15/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Kinder Morgan, Inc. KMI 1/15/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation BK 1/16/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Bank of America Corporation BAC 1/16/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
BlackRock, Inc. BLK 1/16/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. PNC 1/16/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
U.S. Bancorp USB 1/16/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. GS 1/16/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Comerica Incorporated CMA 1/16/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
CSX Corporation CSX 1/16/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Industrials: A
Alcoa Corporation AA 1/16/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Fastenal Company FAST 1/16/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Industrials: B
Signature Bank SBNY 1/16/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D

Source: S&P Capital IQ

 

Stock Model Portfolios
Multi-factor quantitatively optimized portfolios risk-adjusted to provide investors an ATTRACTIVERISK/RETURN TRADE-OFF