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Global stocks are rallying across the board on speculation that the US may roll back tariffs on Chinese products

Jan 18, 2019

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Market data as of 7am EST

 

US Stocks

  • US stocks index futures are trading at pre-market highs with front-month Dow Jones minis +0.70%, S&P 500 minis +0.50% and Nasdaq 100 minis +0.50% 
  • Strategists at GMO suggest the current positive moves in stocks still points to the bursting of a “stock market bubble”.  The length and magnitude of the price correction in 4Q for stocks, pushing valuations back down to their long-term averages, is consistent the bursting of the technology stocks bubble in 2000 and the 1929 stock market crash.  GMO continues to preach caution towards US stocks in spite of the fact that US stocks are on pace for their fourth weekly gain in a row. 
  • The US Treasury formally denies the WSJ article that suggests the US government is considering a roll-back in tariffs on Chinese products
  • The VIX is little changed this morning and is currently at 17.89 after closing at 18.06 yesterday
  • Bank of America (BAC) March 2019 & January 2020 OTM Calls, SPY January 18 OTM Puts, QQQ January 18 OTM Puts, and HYG June 2019 OTM Puts are some of the most actively traded US options contracts in the US pre-market today
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 1.4 basis points to 2.7644%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.07 basis points to 0.19%
  • WTI Crude is currently down -0.46% to USD$52.07/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread up USD$1.68 to USD$9.19/bbl
  • Gold is currently down -0.49% to USD$1285.73/oz

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data.
 

  • American Express (AXP) reported 4Q18 EPS of USD$2.32 while USD$1.80 was consensus.  American Express 4Q18 revenue of USD$10.50 billion came in line with USD$10.57 billion consensus.  American Express saw loan loss provision grow 14% in the quarter to USD$954 million  American Express gave full year 2019 revenue guidance of USD$7.85-8.35 billion.  American Express is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Apple (AAPL) supplier Foxconn has cut 50,000 seasonal jobs at its factory in China.  The jobs are renewed monthly from August until January, but this year there has not been the need for these workers given lower handset sales expected.  Apple is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Citizens Financial (CFG) reported 4Q18 EPS of 98 cents above 94 cents consensus.  Citizens Financial 4Q18 revenue of USD$1.59 billion came in line with USD$1.60 billion consensus.  Citizens Financial NIM was 3.27% with total write-offs of USD$85 million.  Citizens Financial an is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas
  • J.B. Hunt Transport (JBHT) reported 4Q18 EPS of 81 cents while USD$1.24 was consensus, though a change in reporting does not make the numbers comparable.  J.B. Hunt Transport 4Q18 operating revenue of USD$2.32 billion came in line with USD$2.30 billion consensus.   Intermodal revenue was USD$1.26 billion while dedicated contract solutions revenue was USD$595.8 million.  J.B. Hunt Transport is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  J.B. Hunt Transport is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Kansas City Southern (KSU) reported 4Q18 adjusted EPS of USD$1.56/share while consensus was for USD$1.53/share.  Kansas City Southern generated CY4Q18 revenue of USD$694.0mm while analysts expected USD$685.2mm.  Kansas City Southern's operating ratio of 63.1% in CY4Q2018 was slightly below consensus for 64%.  Kansas City Southern is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Netflix (NFLX) reported 4Q18 EPS of 30 cents while 24 cents was consensus.  Netflix 4Q18 revenue of USD$4.19 billion came in line with USD$4.21 billion consensus.  Netflix added 8.8 million new subscribers, below the consensus of  9.4 million.  Netflix gave 1Q19 revenue guidance of USD$4.49 billion while present consensus is USD$4.60 billion.  Netflix said it has no plans to cut The Bird Box despite cries from critics to remove the film.  Netflix is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Regions Financial (RF) reported 4Q18 EPS of 37 cents while 38 cents was consensus.  Regions Financial 4Q18 revenue of USD$1.44 billion came in line with USD$1.48 billion consensus.  Regions Financial common equity Tier 1 ratio 9.9%, NIM 3.5%.  Regions Financial an is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Schlumberger (SLB) reported 4Q18 EPS of 36 cents in line with 35 cents consensus.  Schlumberger 4Q18 revenue of USD$8.2 billion came in line with USD$8.04 billion consensus.  Schlumberger sees 2019 capex dropping to USD$1-5-1.6 billion, down from USD$2.1 billion in 2018.  Schlumberger is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Sears (SHLD.Q) creditors do not want to see ESL Investments, its main shareholder, win the auction selling Sears off as part of its bankruptcy.  The group of creditors asked the judge for permission to sue ESL and its President Eddie Lambert-also the CEO of Sears.  The creditor group accuses ESL and Mr. Lambert of slowly stripping Sears of all its best assets only to reacquire it in the auction.  Sears is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • SunTrust (STI) reported 4Q18 EPS of USD$1.50 above USD$1.43 consensus.  SunTrust 4Q18 revenue of USD$2.39 billion came in line with USD$2.36 billion consensus.  SunTrust common equity Tier 1 ratio 9.21%, NIM 3.27%.  SunTrust is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Tiffany and Co. (TIF) is reporting that its FY2018 net earnings will likely come in at the lower end of its previous guidance between USD$4.65/share and USD$4.80/share. CEO Alessandro Bogliolo is attributing underwhelming holiday sales performance and lower sales in foreign markets, primarily China. Tiffany’s is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Tesla (TSLA) is cutting 7% of its staff in a cost-cutting move.  Tesla is looking to cut costs in an effort to keep the cost of the Model 3 a slow as is possible in the wake of the federal tax credit expiring.  CEO Elon Musk said, “The road ahead is very difficult”.  Tesla is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • VF Corp (VFC) reported fiscal 3Q18 EPS of USD$1.16 above USD$1.08 consensus.  VF Corp fiscal 3Q18 revenue of USD$3.94 billion rose 7% y/y.  VF Corp raised 2019 EPS guidance to USD$3.52-3.57.  VF Corp is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Walmart (WMT) and CVS Health Corp (CVS) have reached a resolution concerning their disagreement over pricing. The disagreement drove Walmart to cut some ties with CVS Health Corp earlier in the week. In a joint statement Friday, the companies informed that Walmart will allow its stores to participate in CVS Health Corp’s pharmacy networks. Walmart is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas. CVS Health Corp is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.

 

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European Stocks

  • European stocks are advancing this morning and are on pace for the highest close since December 4
  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently up +1.21%, the FTSE 100 is higher by +1.24%, the DAX has advanced +1.32%, and the CAC 40 has risen +1.5%
  • The DAX, the German large-cap stocks benchmark index, is poised to break above 11,000 as sentiment towards US-China trade negotiations continues to trend positive.  11,000 was previously a technical support level for the before a breakdown in December.  A break above 11,000 would point to a new regime change in the DAX’s technical outlook and would make 11,000 a technical support level again.
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 8.23x
  • Oil & Gas (+1.5%), Telecommunications (+0.74%), and Basic Resources (+1.16%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Automobiles & Parts (+1.59%), Food & Beverage (+0.83%), and Utilities (+0.93%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • 134 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 19 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 21 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 1 stock are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is little changed this morning and is currently at 14.73 after closing at 15.41 yesterday
  • EUR€ is currently up +0.176% against the USD$ to 1.1409
  • GBP£ is currently down -0.362% against the USD$ to 1.2939
  • CHF is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.0068
  • German 10-Year Bunds are lower with yields up 2 basis points to 0.263%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are lower with yields up 1.7 basis points to 1.354%

Asian Stocks

  • Asia stocks finish the week on a positive note following a Wall Street Journal article yesterday suggesting the US is considering the possibility of rolling back tariffs on Chinese products
  • The Nikkei 225 finished up +1.29%, the Hang Seng ended up +1.25%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise up +1.19%, and the CSI 300 was +1.82%
  • This week’s positive move across Asian stock markets is the first consecutive two week gain since September 2018
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 8.78x
  • 85 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 2 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 1 stock in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 1 stock closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 7.33x
  • 18 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 0 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 2 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 0 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Japan 2-Year Government Bonds are lower with yields up 0.2 basis points to -0.165%
  • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are lower with yields up 1 basis points to 0.016%
  • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has widened 0.8 basis points to 0.18%
  • JPY¥ is currently up +0.183% against the USD$ to 109.46

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

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Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
JPMorgan Chase & Co 168 5.29 -11 -5 0.19% 0.04%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The 79 4.43 -18 -12 -2.54% -4.73%
QUALCOMM Inc 46 2.43 -3 -11 -1.6% 8.22%
Exxon Mobil Corp 40 2.43 -11 -4 -10.98% -17.04%
Verizon Communications Inc 39 2.71 -4 13 0.01% 0.49%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
JPMorgan Chase & Co 168 5.29 -11 -5 0.19% 0.04%
Berkshire Hathaway Inc 31 5.14 -2 2 -0.46% 1.03%
Walt Disney Co/The 37 4.57 0 -13 -0.05% -2.15%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The 79 4.43 -18 -12 -2.54% -4.73%
Morgan Stanley 4 4.29 -16 -3 -0.66% -1.88%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

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ETF 30D IV 30D IV
Percentile
90D IV 90D IV
Percentile
90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV
Percentile
30D IV-
20D HV
30D IV-20D HV
Percentile
90D IV-
60D HV
90D IV-60D HV
Percentile
SPY 14.41 63.49% 15.69 69.84% 1.09 55.36% -14.46 1.19% -8.51 1.19%
QQQ 20.44 65.87% 20.9 72.62% 1.02 52.78% -15.4 0.79% -12.11 0.79%
IWM 19.33 74.21% 19.5 78.57% 1.01 43.06% -9.55 3.57% -6.98 1.59%
FEZ 15.33 50.0% 15.97 57.94% 1.04 64.68% -4.51 10.71% -3.09 9.13%
EEM 18.76 48.41% 19.17 46.83% 1.02 55.36% -0.34 52.38% -4.39 7.54%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Quantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily ExecutableQuantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily Executable
Quantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily ExecutableQuantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily Executable

Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES CP  -CL A ZBRA Information Technology Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components 3.99% 9.08% 52.66%
NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP NOC Industrials Aerospace & Defense 3.21% 2.46% -12.94%
ALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC ALGN Health Care Health Care Equipment & Supplies 2.8% 4.83% -5.47%
OLD DOMINION FREIGHT ODFL Industrials Road & Rail 2.75% 1.67% -2.73%
INSPERITY INC NSP Industrials Professional Services 2.7% 4.0% 56.38%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
F5 NETWORKS INC FFIV Information Technology Communications Equipment -3.42% -5.7% 16.54%
VAIL RESORTS INC MTN Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure -2.2% -17.15% -12.72%
HOME DEPOT INC HD Consumer Discretionary Specialty Retail -1.23% -2.37% -5.05%
CIGNA CORP CI Health Care Health Care Providers & Services -1.14% 1.41% -4.06%
MOTOROLA SOLUTIONS INC MSI Information Technology Communications Equipment -0.7% -3.29% 24.59%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC UNFI Consumer Staples Food & Staples Retailing -19.96% 1.44% -136.85%
LAREDO PETROLEUM INC LPI Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -6.76% -11.66% -109.14%
CARRIZO OIL & GAS INC CRZO Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -2.08% -6.29% -66.23%
EXTRACTION OIL & GAS INC XOG Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -1.87% -1.87% -111.79%
HERON THERAPEUTICS INC HRTX Health Care Biotechnology -1.78% 2.99% 37.03%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
MADRIGAL PHARMACEUTICALS INC MDGL Health Care Biotechnology 4.42% 2.88% 19.2%
SUMMIT MATERIALS INC SUM Materials Construction Materials 4.33% 1.12% -79.7%
ROKU INC ROKU Consumer Discretionary Household Durables 4.27% 3.59% -22.38%
GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBBER CO GT Consumer Discretionary Auto Components 3.72% -5.98% -44.37%
ARRAY BIOPHARMA INC ARRY Health Care Biotechnology 3.68% -1.7% 25.3%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptos

  • Cryptocurrency prices are mostly in the green as Bitcoin (BTC) is trading 0.46% higher in the last 24 hours to USD$3,650.90. Binance Coin (BNB) is outpacing the broader crypto market, up 6.28% in the last 24 hours to USD$6.54. IOTA (MIOTA) and TRON (TRX) are also outperforming major coins, up 2.54% and 1.96% in the last 24 hours to USD$0.311219 and USD$0.02998, respectively. Bitcoin SV is down the most among major coins in the day’s trading, falling 1.21% in the last 24 hours to USD$76.10.  
  • Coinme, a US-based Bitcoin (BTC) ATM operator, is partnering with Coinstar to sell BTC at the latter’s coin counting kiosks, as per an official press release. “Bitcoin is now accessible at your local grocery store via Coinstar kiosks,” said Coinme CEO and cofounder Neil Bergquist, adding that, “this offering will make it even easier for consumers to participate in this dynamic new economy.” Data on industry monitoring website CoinATMRadar indicates that, among the 4,187 known BTC ATMs worldwide, 2,516 are in the United States.  
  • Grayscale, a digital currency investment group, announced the successful launch of its investment trust fund dedicated to Stellar Lumens (XLM) on Twitter yesterday. The latest fund by Grayscale is one of nine, “single-asset investment products,” that provide exposure to cryptocurrencies. Grayscale also offers investment products with exposure to Bitcoin (BTC), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Ethereum (ETH), Ethereum Classic (ETC), Horizen (ZEN), Litecoin (LTC), Ripple (XRP), and Zcash (ZEC).  
  • ShapeShift, a cryptocurrency exchange based in Switzerland, reported in its Compliance Transparency report that law enforcement requests it received increased by 175% in the second half of 2018. ShapeShift received 44 subpoena requests in the second half of 2018 prior to receiving just 16 in the first half of the year. Last October, the Wall Street Journal reported that USD$9mm of funds were funneled through ShapeShift, allegations the exchange promptly rebuked. 

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

High Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for CryptocurrenciesHigh Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for Cryptocurrencies
High Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for CryptocurrenciesHigh Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for Cryptocurrencies

Events Calendar

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Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
State Street Corporation STT 1/18/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
V.F. Corporation VFC 1/18/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Discretionary: B
Citizens Financial Group, Inc. CFG 1/18/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Schlumberger Limited SLB 1/18/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
SunTrust Banks, Inc. STI 1/18/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Kansas City Southern KSU 1/18/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Industrials: B
First Horizon National Corporation FHN 1/18/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
International Business Machines Corporation IBM 1/21/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Information Technology: A
Waters Corporation WAT 1/21/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
The Travelers Companies, Inc. TRV 1/22/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. SWK 1/22/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Industrials: C
Allegheny Technologies Incorporated ATI 1/22/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
F.N.B. Corporation FNB 1/22/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Johnson & Johnson JNJ 1/22/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
Fifth Third Bancorp FITB 1/22/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Halliburton Company HAL 1/22/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Steel Dynamics, Inc. STLD 1/22/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Prologis, Inc. PLD 1/22/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Zions Bancorporation, National Association ZION 1/22/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. IBKR 1/22/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation AMTD 1/22/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
Capital One Financial Corporation COF 1/22/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW 1/22/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Lam Research Corporation LRCX 1/22/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Information Technology: C
Amphenol Corporation APH 1/22/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Information Technology: A
Aspen Technology, Inc. AZPN 1/22/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Information Technology: C
Hess Corporation HES 1/22/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F
Hexcel Corporation HXL 1/22/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Industrials: B
Jefferies Financial Group Inc. JEF 1/22/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
The Procter & Gamble Company PG 1/22/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Staples: B
Raymond James Financial, Inc. RJF 1/22/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN 1/22/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Information Technology: A
Wintrust Financial Corporation WTFC 1/22/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Xilinx, Inc. XLNX 1/22/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Information Technology: B

Source: S&P Capital IQ

 

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