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Morning Brief

Wake up to the Morning Quant Ride, your global markets update every morning!

Global stocks open higher in a week with US-China trade talks to feature prominently

Feb 11, 2019

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Market data as of 7am

 

US Stocks

  • Global stocks are rising, led by Chinese stocks that reopened to the upside after being closed for a week and European shares following them higher this morning
  • US stocks index futures are rising with front-month Dow Jones minis +0.26%, S&P 500 minis +0.28% and Nasdaq 100 minis +0.36%  
  • Trade features prominently this week as Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin are set to resume trade talks. 
  • US and Chinese officials are working against a March 1st deadline set by the US to reach a deal or hike tariffs on over USD$200 billion in imports 
  • Goldman Sachs has stopped recommending clients to purchase stocks of companies with strong balance sheets given the change in stance from the Federal Reserve, saying the pause in hikes should help companies with weak balance sheets 
  • Congressional negotiators made progress over the weekend on an agreement to fund the US government but are reported to have hit a snag yesterday and are presently stalled. 
  • The S&P valuations could be topping, according to Bloomberg, and stocks will need a better earnings outlook to rise much more from their present levels
  • The VIX is little changed this morning and is currently at 15.93 after closing at 15.72 last week
  • GE (GE) OTM puts & Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) and SPY OTM Calls some of the most heavily traded options in the US pre-market this morning.
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 0.9 basis points to 2.6429%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has widened 0.5 basis points to 0.17%
  • WTI Crude is currently little changed 0.15% to USD$52.72/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread down USD$-0.38 to USD$9/bbl
  • Gold is currently down -0.51% to USD$1307.53/oz

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data.
 

  • Apple (AAPL) saw a 20% plummet in iPhone shipments in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to a report from research firm IDC.  IDC estimates the market as a whole or phones contracted 9.7% in China in the fourth quarter.  IDC highlights that Apple has not been able to adjust its offerings in China fast enough for the pace of change of customers.  Apple is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Deutsche Post (DB: DPW) may get a hike in postage rated more than expected, according to a report in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung today.  Deutsche Post may get a hike to 0.90 euro, up from 0.70 presently.  The hike will take effect in early summer and not in April as originally thought.  Deutsche Post is rated “Unattractive” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Electronic Arts (EA) was upgraded by Bank of America Merrill Lynch to buy from neutral.  Electronic Arts had its price target hiked to USD$110 from USD$95 while the average price target is USD$93.66.  The hike comes in the wake of weak earnings in February 5th.  Electronic Arts is rated "Unattractive" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Neutral" in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Geely Automotive (SEHK: 175) announced a total sales increase of 2% y/y in January to a record 158,393 units. The January sales number represents a 70% increase in unit sales from December and includes sales of its Lynk & Co. premium brand, sold by a 50% joint venture. Geely Automotive is rated “Unattractive” in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • KKR (KKR) is acquiring 60% of Indian waste-collection company Ramky Enviro Engineers Ltd in its impact fund.    The deal is valued at USD$510 million.  This is KKR’s biggest deal in the impact fund.  KKR is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Euronext (ENXTPA:ENX) has hiked its offer for the Oslo Stock Exchange to 158 kronor per share, topping by 4% Nasdaq’s (NDAQ) offer for the Oslo exchange.  Nasdaq’s offer was already accepted by the Oslo Exchange and today Nasdaq said it is moving ahead with the deal, giving no hint if it plans to up its offer.  Euronext is rated “Top Buy” in our European SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  Nasdaq is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Morgan Stanley (MS) announced the acquisition of Solium Capital (TSX: SUM) for about USD$900mm. Morgan Stanley will pay about CAD$19.15/share for Solium Capital, a provider of stock-plan administration services, which represents a 43% premium on the company’s closing price. Morgan Stanley is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. Solium Capital is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Playtech (LSE: PTEC) was downgraded by Bank of America Merrill Lynch to underperform from neutral.  Bank of America Merrill Lynch sees a lack of visibility in Asia in the near term and was cited as a primary reason for the downgrade.  Playtech is rated “Unattractive” in our United Kingdom All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas 
  • Smith & Nephew Plc (LSE: SN) shares fell on news of deal talks with NuVasive Inc. (NUVA). A deal would reportedly be worth more than USD$3bn, according to the Financial Times. Last week, Smith & Nephew CEO Namal Nawana said that the company is ready to pursue a large deal to expand the company’s operations to more medical devices. Smith & Nephew is rated “Unattractive” in our United Kingdom All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. NuVasive is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Sprint (S) is suing AT&T (T) for the use of a “5G E” symbol on the screens of phones on its networks that are near an enhanced 4G cell tower.  AT&T calls this “5G Evolution”  hence the 5G E symbol on screens while Sprint is suing call this deceptive.  Sprint is rated “Top Short” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  AT&T is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas
  • Tesla (TSLA) has successfully ramped up the production of Model 3s but is still have challenges servicing them.  The Wall Street Journal highlight today that owners are having to wait weeks or months to get their vehicles serviced due to the limited number of locations. Tesla is rated “Top Short” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Vale (VALE) has lost its license to operate the tailings dam that collapsed.  The Brazilian Mines and Energy Minister has opened an administrative proceeding to collect information related to the rupture of Vale's tailings dam.  Vale announced the evacuation of 500 residents downstream of a different dam at another of Vale’s mines due to fears of a potential collapse.  Vale is rated “Neutral” in our Brazil All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.

 

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Better Data for Better Investment DecisionsBetter Data for Better Investment Decisions

European Stocks

  • European stocks took the lead from Chinese shares strength and are higher today
  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently up +0.68%, the FTSE 100 is higher by +0.47%, the DAX has advanced +0.75%, and the CAC 40 has risen +0.85%
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 4.77x
  • Oil & Gas (+0.92%), Telecommunications (+0.7%), and Basic Resources (+0.69%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Automobiles & Parts (+0.18%), Food & Beverage (+0.46%), and Utilities (+0.58%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • 19 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 81 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 27 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 14 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is little changed this morning and is currently at 15.57 after closing at 16.31 yesterday
  • EUR€ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.1316
  • GBP£ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.2929
  • CHF is currently down -0.21% against the USD$ to 0.9972
  • German 10-Year Bunds are lower with yields up 2 basis points to 0.107%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are lower with yields up 2.3 basis points to 1.174%

Asian Stocks

  • Chinese markets reopen with the end of the Lunar New Year holiday 
  • Japanese markets are closed for the Foundation 

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

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We Crunch the Numbers, You Make the Trade.We Crunch the Numbers, You Make the Trade.

Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Amazon.com Inc 176 2.29 4 5 15.31% 15.25%
Apple Inc 141 3.14 -36 -33 -1.97% -12.4%
Facebook Inc 98 3.14 10 8 5.11% 5.95%
Alphabet Inc 85 2.57 -8 -11 5.48% 5.42%
Verizon Communications Inc 78 3 -17 -16 -0.44% -0.55%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
UnitedHealth Group Inc 8 5.14 4 9 3.44% 3.75%
CVS Health Corp 17 4.43 -2 -7 -0.76% 3.1%
3M Co 15 4.43 -14 -10 1.99% 1.28%
Exelon Corp 11 4.29 -2 5 -0.39% 0.68%
Lockheed Martin Corp 31 4.29 -2 -2 3.83% 3.9%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

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ETF 30D IV 30D IV
Percentile
90D IV 90D IV
Percentile
90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV
Percentile
30D IV-
20D HV
30D IV-20D HV
Percentile
90D IV-
60D HV
90D IV-60D HV
Percentile
SPY 12.75 50.6% 14.2 56.94% 1.11 61.11% 0.88 67.66% -8.45 3.57%
QQQ 17.78 49.21% 18.19 53.17% 1.02 51.79% -0.57 56.35% -11.64 3.97%
IWM 15.38 54.76% 16.84 61.9% 1.09 77.18% 2.97 75.4% -7.35 3.57%
FEZ 14.47 37.7% 15.06 42.66% 1.04 65.87% 1.84 70.63% -3.26 13.1%
EEM 17.55 32.54% 18.5 35.71% 1.05 75.79% 0.94 69.84% -1.83 36.9%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Quantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily ExecutableQuantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily Executable
Quantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily ExecutableQuantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily Executable

Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD        
SPY 12.75 50.6% 14.2 56.94% 1.11 61.11% 0.88 67.66% -8.45 3.57%
QQQ 17.78 49.21% 18.19 53.17% 1.02 51.79% -0.57 56.35% -11.64 3.97%
IWM 15.38 54.76% 16.84 61.9% 1.09 77.18% 2.97 75.4% -7.35 3.57%
FEZ 14.47 37.7% 15.06 42.66% 1.04 65.87% 1.84 70.63% -3.26 13.1%
EEM 17.55 32.54% 18.5 35.71% 1.05 75.79% 0.94 69.84% -1.83 36.9%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
CIGNA CORP CI Health Care Health Care Providers & Services -2.5% -6.76% -11.05%
URBAN OUTFITTERS INC URBN Consumer Discretionary Specialty Retail -2.05% -1.16% -14.83%
WESTERN UNION CO WU Information Technology IT Services -1.71% -2.58% -1.87%
CULLEN/FROST BANKERS INC CFR Financials Banks -1.49% 0.06% 6.45%
O'REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC ORLY Consumer Discretionary Specialty Retail -1.44% 3.81% 36.82%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
SUPERIOR ENERGY SERVICES INC SPN Energy Energy Equipment & Services -10.25% -11.9% -97.85%
GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBBER CO GT Consumer Discretionary Auto Components -9.49% -11.75% -51.72%
CALIFORNIA RESOURCES CORP CRC Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -6.01% -15.2% -12.68%
CARRIZO OIL & GAS INC CRZO Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -5.56% -15.29% -73.67%
BIG LOTS INC BIG Consumer Discretionary Multiline Retail -4.18% -1.38% -56.19%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
COTY INC COTY Consumer Staples Personal Products 27.88% 21.3% -70.22%
MATTEL INC MAT Consumer Discretionary Leisure Products 20.88% 22.02% -5.06%
MYRIAD GENETICS INC MYGN Health Care Biotechnology 4.38% 8.74% -17.21%
BUCKEYE PARTNERS LP BPL Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 4.19% 1.04% -38.16%
SAGE THERAPEUTICS INC SAGE Health Care Biotechnology 3.4% 5.94% -9.35%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptos

  • Cryptocurrencies were mostly flat in weekend trading as the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell 0.16% since Friday’s close to USD$3,656.02. Ethereum (ETH) appreciated 2.16% to USD$121.41 this weekend to USD$121.41 to surpass Ripple (XRP) in total market capitalization -- XRP fell 1.84% on the weekend to USD$0.303626. Binance Coin (BNB) outperformed most major coins in this weekend’s trading, soaring 11.06% since last Friday’s close to USD$9.64.  
  • The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) took to Twitter on Sunday to reiterate regulatory guidelines for initial coin offerings (ICO). In a tweet on its official Twitter account, the SEC provided a link to a section of its website that outlines the regulatory organization’s view on ICOs. A summary of the guidance on the SEC website reads, “Companies and individuals are increasingly considering initial coin offerings (ICOs) as a way to raise capital or participate in investment opportunities. While these digital assets and the technology behind them may present a new and efficient means for carrying out financial transactions, they also bring increased risk of fraud and manipulation because the markets for these assets are less regulated than traditional capital markets.”  
  • Bakkt, the highly anticipated digital assets trading platform operated by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), officially completed its first acquisition, according to an official tweet from the company. The tweet reads, “With today’s closing of our transaction with Rosenthal Collins Group, we welcome great new team members to Bakkt,” adding that, “RCG’s remarkable heritage, culture, and expertise will help us build out a trusted institutional infrastructure for digital assets.” Additionally, ICE discussed in an investor earnings call that it expects Bakkt, “will generate $20 million to $25 million of expenses based upon the run rate in the first quarter.”  
  • Scott Gottlieb, a Commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), is suggesting the creation of an open pilot blockchain platform for the pharmaceuticals industry. According to a press release published last week, The Pilot Project Program Under the Drug Supply Chain Security Act will aim to connect and integrate pharmaceutical companies through use of emerging innovative technologies. FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb commented in the press release, “We’re invested in exploring new ways to improve traceability, in some cases using the same technologies that can enhance drug supply chain security, like the use of blockchain.”

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

High Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for CryptocurrenciesHigh Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for Cryptocurrencies
High Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for CryptocurrenciesHigh Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for Cryptocurrencies

Events Calendar

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Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. DO 2/11/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Insperity, Inc. NSP 2/11/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Industrials: C
Loews Corporation L 2/11/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
Chegg, Inc. CHGG 2/11/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F, US Consumer Discretionary: C
Brighthouse Financial, Inc. BHF 2/11/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F
Brixmor Property Group Inc. BRX 2/11/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F
FMC Corporation FMC 2/11/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A
Molina Healthcare, Inc. MOH 2/11/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. RAMP 2/11/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Information Technology: C
RingCentral, Inc. RNG 2/11/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Information Technology: C
Vornado Realty Trust VNO 2/11/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
Gulfport Energy Corporation GPOR 2/11/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Imperva, Inc. IMPV 2/11/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: --, US Information Technology: D
Sabre Corporation SABR 2/11/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Information Technology: A
Ubiquiti Networks, Inc. UBNT 2/11/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Information Technology: B
Hexindai Inc. HX 2/11/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: F
Omnicom Group Inc. OMC 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Consumer Discretionary: A
Huntsman Corporation HUN 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
US Foods Holding Corp. USFD 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Staples: B
Under Armour, Inc. UAA 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Consumer Discretionary: C
Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated JLL 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A
Medidata Solutions, Inc. MDSO 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
New Residential Investment Corp. NRZ 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. FIS 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Information Technology: A
Ares Capital Corporation ARCC 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. MLM 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
National Retail Properties, Inc. NNN 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Welltower Inc. WELL 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
IPG Photonics Corporation IPGP 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Information Technology: B
Molson Coors Brewing Company TAP 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Staples: A
WEC Energy Group, Inc. WEC 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Akamai Technologies, Inc. AKAM 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Information Technology: B
Activision Blizzard, Inc. ATVI 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Information Technology: A
HubSpot, Inc. HUBS 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Information Technology: D
Assurant, Inc. AIZ 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. BXMT 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Douglas Emmett, Inc. DEI 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Exelixis, Inc. EXEL 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. MPWR 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Information Technology: B
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. SHO 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
Twilio Inc. TWLO 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F, US Information Technology: D
UDR, Inc. UDR 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
j2 Global, Inc. JCOM 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Information Technology: B
Apptio, Inc. APTI 2/12/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Information Technology: D
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. AXTA 2/12/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Cummins Inc. CMI 2/12/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Industrials: A
Intercept Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ICPT 2/12/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F
Pyxus International, Inc. PYX 2/12/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F, US Consumer Staples: F
Spirit Airlines, Inc. SAVE 2/12/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Industrials: C
Terex Corporation TEX 2/12/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Industrials: C
Trimble Inc. TRMB 2/12/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Information Technology: A
Trinity Industries, Inc. TRN 2/12/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F, US Industrials: C
SINA Corporation SINA 2/12/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Weibo Corporation WB 2/12/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D

Source: S&P Capital IQ

 

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