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Morning Brief

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Global stocks rising on news of US government budget deal, potential trade progress

Feb 12, 2019

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Market data as of 7am EST 

US Stocks

  • Global markets are rising on news that Congressional negotiators have come to a final deal to avert a government shutdown, with “an agreement in principle” having been reached 
  • US stocks index futures are rising with front-month Dow Jones minis +0.84%, S&P 500 minis +0.73% and Nasdaq 100 minis +0.84%  
  • White House officials have indicated President Trump wants to meet with Chinese President Xi “soon” to avert prolonging the trade war, this as senior negotiators from both countries are set to meet Thursday and Friday in Beijing; all signs are for an extension of the existing March 1st deadline 
  • NYU Professor Aswath Damodaran argues that S&P 500 companies in the lowest quintile for projected sales growth are typically those announcing the largest buybacks
  • UK Prime Minister Theresa May will address Parliament today with an update on her Brexit negotiations with the EU 
  • XOP March 15 OTM calls, SPY March 15 OTM puts and EEM April 18 puts are some of the most heavily traded options in the US pre-market this morning. 
  • The VIX is little changed this morning and is currently at 15.13 after closing at 15.97 yesterday
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 2.87 basis points to 2.6823%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has widened 0.82 basis points to 0.18%
  • Oil is surging almost 2% this morning, firmly above $53 with Algeria floating the potential for more production cuts from OPEC at its next meeting
  • WTI Crude is currently down 1.97% to USD$53.44/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread up USD$2.28 to USD$10.09/bbl
  • Gold is currently up 0.41% to USD$1313.5/oz

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data.
 

  • Ares Capital (ARCC) reported fourth quarter core EPS of USD$0.45 beating consensus of USD$0.41.  Ares Capital reported fourth quarter revenue of USD$345 million beating consensus of USD$322.7 million.  Ares Capital is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Brighthouse Financial (BHF) reported fourth quarter adjusted EPS of USD$1.56 matching consensus of USD$1.56.  Brighthouse Financial reported fourth quarter revenue of USD$4.03 billion beating consensus of USD$2.03 billion.  Brighthouse Financial is rated “Top Short” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Fidelity National Information (FIS) reported CY4Q2018 adjusted EPS from continuing operations of USD$1.60 while analysts expected USD$1.58. Fidelity National Information expects FY2019 adjusted EPS between USD$7.35 and USD$7.55, blowing past analyst estimates that range between USD$5.61 and USD$5.86. Fidelity National Information is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • FMC Corp. (FMC) reported fourth quarter adjusted EPS of USD$1.69 beating consensus of USD$1.48.  FMC Corp. reported fourth quarter revenue of USD$1.2 billion matching consensus of USD$1.18 billion.  FMC is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Kering (ENXTPA:KER) reported fourth quarter sales growth of 28.1% at Gucci beating consensus of 27%.  Kering reported fourth quarter total sales of 3.83 billion euros.  Kering CEO said 10% growth for Gucci is realistic and he does not see a need for M&A and does not see a need to get into a bidding war.  Kering is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Huntsman Corp (HUN) reported fourth quarter EPS of USD$0.52 missing consensus of USD$0.54.  Huntsman Corp reported fourth quarter revenue of USD$2.24 billion in line with consensus of USD$2.13 billion.  Huntsman Corp is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • MoneyGram (MGI) reported fourth quarter EPS of USD$0.01 missing consensus of USD$0.13.  MoneyGram reported fourth quarter revenue of USD$345.8 million in line with consensus of USD$348.5 million.  MoneyGram is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • New Residential Investment Corporation (NRZ) announced CY4Q2018 core EPS of USD$0.58, edging past consensus of USD$0.55. New Residential Investment Corporation also acquired USD$1.5bn of re-performing loans from Fannie Mae in CY4Q2018. New Residential Investment Corporation is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC) announced CY4Q2018 adjusted EPS of USD$1.77 while consensus was for USD$1.66. Omnicom Group Inc. reported net sales of USD$4.09 in CY4Q2018 while analysts expected USD$4.10.  Omnicom Group Inc. is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Toshiba Corp. (TSE: 6502) shares plunged after the company slashed its FY2019 profit forecast by at least 50%, citing mounting expenses in its energy business. Toshiba told analysts that it sees FY2019 operating profit between 20bn yen and 30bn yen (USD$180mm and USD$270mm) when the company had issued prior guidance for 60bn yen. Toshiba is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • US Foods Holding Corp. (USFD) announced CY4Q2018 adjusted EPS of USD$0.56 while consensus was for USD$0.58. US Foods Holding Corp. reported net sales of USD$6.04bn in CY4Q2018 beating analyst expectations of USD$5.98bn. US Foods Holding Corp. sees FY2019 adjusted EPS between USD$2.15 and USD$2.25. US Foods Holding Corp. is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Walmart (WMT) and Deliv have severed their online partnership to deliver groceries in New York City.  Walmart works with 7 delivery services and Deliv complained there were not sufficient volumes to make sense for the partnership to continue.  Walmart is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Welltower Inc. (WELL) announced CY4Q2018 normalized funds from operations per share of USD$1.01 in line with consensus of USD$1.03. Welltower Inc. reported net sales of USD$1.24 in CY4Q2018 while analysts expected USD$1.23bn. Welltower Inc. sees FY2019 normalized funds from operations between USD$4.10/share and USD$4.25/share. Welltower Inc. is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.

 

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European Stocks

  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently up +0.64%, the FTSE 100 is higher by +0.29%, the DAX has advanced +1.2%, and the CAC 40 has risen +1.15%
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 3.48x
  • Automobiles & Parts (+2.4%), Chemicals (+1.4%), and Oil & Gas (+1.08%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Travel & Leisure (-0.31%), Media (-0.05%), and Food & Beverage (+0.01%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • 53 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 32 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 29 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 9 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is  moving down this morning and is currently at 14.19 after closing at 15.22 yesterday
  • EUR€ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.1281
  • GBP£ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.2854
  • CHF is currently down -0.432% against the USD$ to 0.9918
  • German 10-Year Bunds are lower with yields up 0.6 basis points to 0.126%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are lower with yields up 0.5 basis points to 1.185%

Asian Stocks

  • The Nikkei 225 finished up +2.61%, the Hang Seng ended up +0.1%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise up +0.25%, and the CSI 300 was +0.72%
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 9.23x
  • 9 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 85 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 1 stock in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 14 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished neutral with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 1.08x
  • 19 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 0 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • Japan 2-Year Government Bonds are lower with yields up 0.2 basis points to -0.162%
  • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are lower with yields up 1.6 basis points to -0.013%
  • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has widened 1.4 basis points to 0.15%
  • JPY¥ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 110.53

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

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Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Amazon.com Inc 170 2.14 7 8 15.16% 15.03%
Apple Inc 142 3.86 -29 -36 -1.97% -12.38%
Facebook Inc 101 3.86 11 11 5.11% 5.95%
Alphabet Inc 72 1.71 -9 -13 5.44% 5.38%
Verizon Communications Inc 69 2.29 -20 -19 -0.44% -0.55%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
3M Co 19 5.86 -13 -9 1.99% 1.28%
UnitedHealth Group Inc 11 5.57 4 9 3.44% 3.75%
Amgen Inc 14 4.86 -15 -15 -0.98% -0.53%
CVS Health Corp 17 4.57 -1 -5 -0.76% 3.12%
Starbucks Corp 12 4.57 28 29 4.2% 4.24%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

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ETF 30D IV 30D IV
Percentile
90D IV 90D IV
Percentile
90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV
Percentile
30D IV-
20D HV
30D IV-20D HV
Percentile
90D IV-
60D HV
90D IV-60D HV
Percentile
SPY 13.54 56.75% 14.07 54.17% 1.04 39.09% 1.67 77.78% -8.26 4.76%
QQQ 17.84 50.79% 18.4 54.76% 1.03 54.96% -0.43 59.13% -10.78 6.35%
IWM 15.61 55.56% 15.75 52.38% 1.01 43.45% 3.04 76.59% -8.16 1.98%
FEZ 15.05 47.02% 15.31 47.22% 1.02 56.75% 2.83 82.14% -2.43 17.86%
EEM 17.67 35.12% 18.8 40.48% 1.06 80.56% 1.12 71.63% -1.31 47.82%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Quantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily ExecutableQuantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily Executable
Quantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily ExecutableQuantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily Executable

Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
INSPERITY INC NSP Industrials Professional Services 17.39% 20.44% 85.26%
ASGN INC ASGN Industrials Professional Services 2.43% 1.31% 1.72%
FIVE BELOW INC FIVE Consumer Discretionary Specialty Retail 2.42% 2.44% 63.07%
TAPESTRY INC TPR Consumer Discretionary Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods 2.31% -10.48% -23.75%
MELLANOX TECHNOLOGIES LTD MLNX Information Technology Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment 2.24% 2.02% 42.44%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
BOOZ ALLEN HAMILTON HLDG CP BAH Information Technology IT Services -1.83% 1.7% 35.91%
COSTAR GROUP INC CSGP Industrials Professional Services -1.57% -0.32% 29.15%
VERISIGN INC VRSN Information Technology IT Services -1.49% -1.61% 44.33%
EXELIXIS INC EXEL Health Care Biotechnology -1.37% -10.1% -40.32%
FISERV INC FISV Information Technology IT Services -1.34% 0.56% 26.03%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
SOUTHERN COPPER CORP SCCO Materials Metals & Mining -4.3% -8.01% -41.94%
ARRAY BIOPHARMA INC ARRY Health Care Biotechnology -3.78% 10.59% 43.81%
ROKU INC ROKU Consumer Discretionary Household Durables -2.71% -0.95% -10.29%
GLOBAL BLOOD THERAPEUTICS GBT Health Care Biotechnology -2.03% 1.1% 17.06%
PIVOTAL SOFTWARE INC PVTL Information Technology Software -2.02% 1.32% 19.57%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
RANGE RESOURCES CORP RRC Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 9.2% -5.09% -54.33%
LAREDO PETROLEUM INC LPI Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 7.29% -6.54% -109.68%
HAIN CELESTIAL GROUP INC HAIN Consumer Staples Food Products 5.68% -7.99% -91.27%
SUPERIOR ENERGY SERVICES INC SPN Energy Energy Equipment & Services 4.63% -10.71% -93.22%
U S SILICA HOLDINGS INC SLCA Energy Energy Equipment & Services 3.68% -7.25% -91.75%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptos

  • Cryptocurrencies broadly fell overnight as the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is down 0.68% in the last 24 hours to USD$3,629.60. Currently, 9 of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization are in the red while EOS (EOS) is moving against the broad market, up 0.31% in the last 24 hours to USD$2.78. Binance Coin (BNB) is down the most among top 10 cryptocurrencies, falling 4.43% in the last 24 hours to USD$9.19. NEO (NEO), Dash (DASH), and Maker (MKR) are also posting notable gains, all up more than 3.50%.  
  • According to a tweet from CEO Changpeng Zhao, cryptocurrency exchange giant Binance will launch the testnet version of its new decentralized exchange on February 20th. The new decentralized exchange, Binance DEX, aims to create a decentralized platform where cryptocurrency investors can trade tokens, removing risks associated with traditional, centralized exchanges.  
  • Bitcoin (BTC) transaction fees have fallen to the lowest levels since 2014, according to the latest report by blockchain and crypto research firm Diar. The drop in BTC transaction fees comes they set one-year highs this past January. According to Diar, “Median Fees are also at levels not seen since 2015 despite the total monthly Bitcoins moved on-chain standing at higher levels than seen throughout most of 2018.”   
  • An ETF filing submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by Reality Shares ETF Trust, a unit of fintech firm Blockforce Capital, proposes a portfolio including sovereign debt securities and Bitcoin (BTC) futures. The ETF filing, submitted on Monday, would be traded on the NYSE Arca and built to, “provide investment exposures to global currencies, both fiat and virtual currencies, that have widely adopted for use (e.g., as store-of-value, international remittance, foreign-exchange trading) throughout the world.” 

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

High Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for CryptocurrenciesHigh Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for Cryptocurrencies
High Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for CryptocurrenciesHigh Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for Cryptocurrencies

Events Calendar

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Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
Omnicom Group Inc. OMC 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Consumer Discretionary: A
Huntsman Corporation HUN 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
US Foods Holding Corp. USFD 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Staples: B
Under Armour, Inc. UAA 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Consumer Discretionary: C
Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated JLL 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A
Medidata Solutions, Inc. MDSO 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
New Residential Investment Corp. NRZ 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. FIS 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Information Technology: A
Ares Capital Corporation ARCC 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. MLM 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
National Retail Properties, Inc. NNN 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Welltower Inc. WELL 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
IPG Photonics Corporation IPGP 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Information Technology: B
Molson Coors Brewing Company TAP 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Staples: A
WEC Energy Group, Inc. WEC 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Akamai Technologies, Inc. AKAM 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Information Technology: B
Activision Blizzard, Inc. ATVI 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Information Technology: A
HubSpot, Inc. HUBS 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Information Technology: D
Assurant, Inc. AIZ 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. BXMT 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Douglas Emmett, Inc. DEI 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Exelixis, Inc. EXEL 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. MPWR 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Information Technology: B
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc. SHO 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
Twilio Inc. TWLO 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F, US Information Technology: D
UDR, Inc. UDR 2/12/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. AXTA 2/12/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Cummins Inc. CMI 2/12/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Industrials: A
Intercept Pharmaceuticals, Inc. ICPT 2/12/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F
Spirit Airlines, Inc. SAVE 2/12/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Industrials: C
Terex Corporation TEX 2/12/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Industrials: C
Trimble Inc. TRMB 2/12/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Information Technology: A
SINA Corporation SINA 2/12/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D
Weibo Corporation WB 2/12/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date China All-Cap: D

Source: S&P Capital IQ

 

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