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Morning Brief

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Global stocks drifting lower as investors weigh trade progress and global growth prospects

Feb 19, 2019

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Market data as of 7am EST

 

US Stocks

  • Global stocks are drifting lower with investors weighing last week's US-China trade progress and the potential for further progress this week as well as the outlook for global growth
  • Walmart (WMT) reported a 4.2% rise in sales this morning and provided same store sales guidance of 2.5-3% in 2019, allaying fears of a retail slowdown in the US. 
  • US and Chinese negotiators will continue trade talks this week, looking to build on the momentum of last week 
  • European officials made clear again they will hike import tariffs on US goods if the US lets auto tariffs increase on European auto imports on March 1st 
  • The head of the Bank of Japan told Parliament he would provide more stimulus to the economy if required. 
  • The VIX is little changed this morning and is currently at 15.65 after closing at 14.91 last week
  • SPY March 29 OTM Puts, EEM March 15 OTM Puts, and QQQ March 1 OTM Calls are some of the most heavily traded options in the US pre-market this morning. 
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are flat with yields little changed 0 basis points to 2.6626%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has widened 1.24 basis points to 0.16%
  • WTI Crude is currently up 2.17% to USD$55.59/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread down USD$-2.34 to USD$10.29/bbl
  • Gold is currently little changed 0.14% to USD$1328.7/oz

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data.
 

  • Advanced Auto Parts (AAP) reported fourth quarter adjusted EPS of USD$1.17 beating consensus of USD$1.13.  Advanced Auto Parts reported fourth quarter sales of USD$2.11 billion matching consensus of USD$2.11 billion.  Advanced Auto Parts sales grew 3.4% in the fourth quarter.  Advanced Auto Parts is rated “Neutral” in our Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas
  • China International Capital Corp. (SEHK: 3908) shares traded higher after Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) increased its stake in the investment bank. Alibaba increased its stake in China International Capital Corp. by 117.1mm shares, or HK$1.8bn (USD$230mm). Alibaba’s stake in China International Capital Corp. is now 11.7%, nearly matching Tencent Holdings Limited’s (SEHK: 700) 12% stake in the investment bank. China International Capital Corp. is rated “Neutral” in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. Alibaba is rated “Top Buy” in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. Tencent is rated “Attractive” in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Danone (ENXTPA:BN) gave 2019 guidance for 3% sales growth with sales with full year operating income of 3.56 billion euros.  Danone expects recurring operating margin above 15%.  Danone expects EPS of 3.84 euros.  Danone is rated “Neutral” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Hang Seng Bank Limited (SEHK: 11) announced FY2018 financials that broadly surpassed analyst expectations. Hang Seng Bank reported HK$24.21bn of net income in FY2018 while consensus was for HK$23.38bn. Hang Seng Bank also told investors that it expects Hong Kong GDP growth of 2.7% in 2019, down from the expected 3.3% growth in 2018. Hang Seng Bank is rated “Neutral” in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Honda (TSE:7267) said it will close its factory in England which is being seen as a blow to Brexit.  Honda will close a factory located in Swindon, located about 80 miles outside of London.  The factory will close in 2021 and presently employs 3,500 workers.  Honda is rated “Top Buy” in our Japanese Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • HSBC Holdings Plc (LSE: HSBA) shares dipped after missing CY4Q2018 consensus and warning investors that rising political tensions have made the outlook for 2019 far less predictable. HSBC Holdings chairman Mark Tucker said on a conference call, “There are more risks to global economic growth than this time last year, and we remain alive and responsive to all possibilities.” HSBC Holdings reported adjusted pretax profit of USD$3.39bn in CY4Q2018 while analysts expected USD$4.40bn. HSBC Holdings is rated “Neutral” in our United Kingdom All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Kia Motors (KOSE: A000270) shares were downgraded from buy to hold by KB Securities. KB Securities maintains a price target for Kia Motors shares of 40,000 won, implying a 12% upside from the stock’s last close. Kia Motors maintains an average price target of 36,695 won across 35 analyst estimates. Kia Motors is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • ProSiebenSat.1 Media SE (XTRA: PSM) shares slipped following reports that key executives are clashing with CEO Max Conze over the firm’s strategy. According to the report, CFO Jan Kemper will likely depart the German broadcaster shortly. Chief Commercial Officer Sabine Eckhardt also will not renew her contract at the end of 2019, according to the report. ProSiebenSat.1 Media is rated “Neutral” in our European SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) reported fourth quarter adjusted loss per share of USD$3.83 missing consensus of a loss of USD$2.97.  Sage Therapeutics reported fourth quarter total expenses of USD$164.5 million.  Sage Therapeutics sees funding in place until second half of 2020.  Sage Therapeutics is rated “Top Short” in our Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • SiteOne Landscaping (SITE) reported fourth quarter adjusted loss per share of USD$0.01 beating consensus of a loss of USD$0.06.  SiteOne Landscaping reported fourth quarter revenue of USD$474.6 million matching consensus of USD$473.1 million.  SiteOne Landscaping saw total sales growth 14% with organic sales growth of 4%.  SiteOne Landscaping is rated “Unattractive” in our Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Straumann Holding AG (SWX: STMN) announced CY4Q2018 financials containing its strongest earnings growth since 2005. Straumann reported organic y/y earnings growth of 21.6% while consensus was for 16.8%. Daniel Buchta, an analyst with Vontobel, wrote in a note to clients that Straumann could produce double-digit organic growth for at least the next 5 years. Straumann is rated “Neutral” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Walmart (WMT) reported fourth quarter adjusted EPS of USD$1.41 beating consensus of USD$1.34.  Walmart reported fourth quarter sales of USD$138.8 billion matching consensus of USD$138.6 billion.  Walmart sales grew 4.2% in the fourth quarter, well above 3.4% expected, with online sales up 43% with Walmart's redesigned website.  Walmart provided 2019 same store sales guidance of 2.5-3%.  Walmart is rated “Attractive” in our Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas
  • Welbuilt (WBT) reported fourth quarter adjusted EPS of USD$0.18 beating consensus of USD$0.17.  Welbuilt reported fourth quarter revenue of USD$406.1 million missing consensus of USD$393.6 million.  Welbuilt gave 2019 EPS guidance of USD$0.71-0.81.  Welbuilt is rated “Attractive” in our SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.
     

 

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European Stocks

  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently down -0.59%, the FTSE 100 has declined -0.74%, the DAX has fallen -0.3%, and the CAC 40 is lower by -0.55%
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 0.32x
  • Travel & Leisure (+0.27%), Utilities (+0.12%), and Insurance (-0.12%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Banks (-1.75%), Financial Services (-0.89%), and Automobiles & Parts (-0.81%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • 147 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 12 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 65 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 3 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is little changed this morning and is currently at 14.81 after closing at 14.54 yesterday
  • EUR€ is currently down -0.283% against the USD$ to 1.1279
  • GBP£ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.2908
  • CHF is currently little changed against the USD$ at 0.9946
  • German 10-Year Bunds are higher with yields down -1.4 basis points to 0.096%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are higher with yields down -1.3 basis points to 1.153%

Asian Stocks

  • The Nikkei 225 finished up +0.1%, the Hang Seng ended down -0.42%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise declined -0.29%, and the CSI 300 was -0.18%
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 1.32x
  • 52 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 0 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 4 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 1 stock closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished neutral with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 1x
  • 16 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 0 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 5 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 0 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Japan 2-Year Government Bonds are higher with yields down -0.5 basis points to -0.177%
  • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are higher with yields down -0.6 basis points to -0.028%
  • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.1 basis points to 0.15%
  • China RMB 2-Year Government Bonds are lower with yields up 1.3 basis points to 2.613%
  • China RMB 10-Year Government Bonds are lower with yields up 1.4 basis points to 3.128%
  • China Government RMB 2s-10s Spread has widened 0.1 basis points to 0.52%
  • JPY¥ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 110.76

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

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We Crunch the Numbers, You Make the Trade.We Crunch the Numbers, You Make the Trade.

Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Amazon.com Inc 282 2.71 7 8 15.38% 15.44%
Apple Inc 142 4.71 -29 -36 -1.55% -11.77%
Facebook Inc 88 5.57 11 11 5.19% 5.95%
Alphabet Inc 59 3 -9 -13 5.34% 5.37%
Netflix Inc 53 2 -3 -5 0.97% 19.97%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Facebook Inc 88 5.57 11 11 5.19% 5.95%
General Dynamics Corp 11 5.14 -9 -11 -0.76% -1.22%
Medtronic PLC 8 5 -9 7 -0.55% 0.78%
Apple Inc 142 4.71 -29 -36 -1.55% -11.77%
Raytheon Co 6 4.29 -12 -12 1.3% 1.91%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

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ETF 30D IV 30D IV
Percentile
90D IV 90D IV
Percentile
90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV
Percentile
30D IV-
20D HV
30D IV-20D HV
Percentile
90D IV-
60D HV
90D IV-60D HV
Percentile
SPY 12.08 44.05% 13.17 43.65% 1.09 53.17% 0.1 57.54% -9.28 0.4%
QQQ 15.55 35.32% 17.08 39.68% 1.1 81.55% -1.67 46.83% -11.99 2.78%
IWM 14.52 48.81% 15.75 53.37% 1.08 72.42% 1.93 63.1% -8.27 2.78%
FEZ 13.72 28.97% 14.51 36.11% 1.06 73.41% -0.32 48.61% -3.67 10.91%
EEM 16.21 13.89% 18.13 32.14% 1.12 98.02% 0.16 59.52% -1.48 45.44%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Quantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily ExecutableQuantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily Executable
Quantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily ExecutableQuantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily Executable

Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
INSPERITY INC NSP Industrials Professional Services 3.63% 15.68% 83.55%
MOODY'S CORP MCO Financials Capital Markets 3.32% 4.98% 15.77%
CIGNA CORP CI Health Care Health Care Providers & Services 2.9% 8.71% -2.34%
PARKER-HANNIFIN CORP PH Industrials Machinery 2.68% 6.89% -11.91%
THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC INC TMO Health Care Life Sciences Tools & Services 2.55% 3.62% 27.18%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC LULU Consumer Discretionary Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods -2.46% 1.65% 63.97%
FIDELITY NATL FINL FNF GROUP FNF Financials Insurance -2.16% -0.94% -6.92%
CME GROUP INC CME Financials Capital Markets -1.13% -1.58% 21.72%
AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC AKAM Information Technology IT Services -0.98% 4.37% 6.68%
FIVE BELOW INC FIVE Consumer Discretionary Specialty Retail -0.69% 1.84% 62.48%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
UNDER ARMOUR INC UAA Consumer Discretionary Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods -3.12% 1.96% 34.21%
MATTEL INC MAT Consumer Discretionary Leisure Products -20.18% -9.72% -14.77%
CAESARS ENTERTAINMENT CORP CZR Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure -2.7% -1.84% -30.8%
FEDEX CORP FDX Industrials Air Freight & Logistics -2.54% 1.16% -35.18%
ANAPTYSBIO INC ANAB Health Care Biotechnology -1.24% -0.79% -38.63%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
CALIFORNIA RESOURCES CORP CRC Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 6.29% 19.96% 7.28%
ROWAN COMPANIES PLC RDC Energy Energy Equipment & Services 6.22% 8.51% -21.1%
EXTRACTION OIL & GAS INC XOG Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 5.82% 10.85% -132.4%
MATADOR RESOURCES CO MTDR Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 5.81% 11.22% -49.22%
ANTERO RESOURCES CORP AR Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels 5.78% 8.46% -72.19%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptos

  • Cryptocurrencies rallied overnight as the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is up 4.30% in the last 24 hours to USD$3,927.32. EOS (EOS) is leading the rally across the broad cryptocurrency market, soaring 17.26% in the last 24 hours to USD$3.61. Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Stellar (XLM) are also posting significant gains, up 12.18% and 9.23% in the last 24 hours to USD$148.23 and USD$0.088282, respectively. Major coins Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) are also trading notably higher, up 4.75% and 7.92% in the last 24 hours to USD$148.03 and USD$0.336457, respectively.
  • Brian Quintenz, a commissioner at the US Commodity and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), suggested the creation of a self-regulation cryptocurrency industry group in the US while speaking on a panel at the Bipartisan Policy Center last week. Quintenz suggested on the panel that crypto, “platforms come together to form some type of self-regulatory structure where they can discuss, agree to, implement, and hopefully examine or audit.” Quintenz did acknowledge, however, that self-regulatory status would require a mandate by US Congress through law.
  • Bitmain, a cryptocurrency mining giant based in China, observed a loss of roughly USD$500mm in the third quarter of 2018, according to financials filed through the company’s initial public offering (IPO) application. Bitmain, who is seeking to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, generated about USD$3bn of revenue in CY3Q2018.
  • The US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) outlined consistencies observed across fraudulent initial coin offering (ICO) scams in an interview with Netherlands-based financials news outlet Paypers on Monday. According to the FBI, fraudulent ICO scams often misrepresent the professional experience of directors and promise prospects of unrealistic returns on tokens. The FBI elaborated further by saying, “Like any investment product, rates of return can never be guaranteed and if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.”

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

High Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for CryptocurrenciesHigh Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for Cryptocurrencies
High Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for CryptocurrenciesHigh Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for Cryptocurrencies

Events Calendar

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Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
Walmart Inc. WMT 2/19/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Staples: B
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. AAP 2/19/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: B
Leidos Holdings, Inc. LDOS 2/19/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Information Technology: A
SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. SITE 2/19/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Industrials: C
Gardner Denver Holdings, Inc. GDI 2/19/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Industrials: B
Noble Energy, Inc. NBL 2/19/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Westlake Chemical Corporation WLK 2/19/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
Genuine Parts Company GPC 2/19/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Consumer Discretionary: A
Ecolab Inc. ECL 2/19/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
KAR Auction Services, Inc. KAR 2/19/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Industrials: A
American Campus Communities, Inc. ACC 2/19/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A
American Water Works Company, Inc. AWK 2/19/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Cadence Design Systems, Inc. CDNS 2/19/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Information Technology: B
Concho Resources Inc. CXO 2/19/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Delek US Holdings, Inc. DK 2/19/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Devon Energy Corporation DVN 2/19/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Diamondback Energy, Inc. FANG 2/19/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. HST 2/19/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. TXRH 2/19/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: B
Verisk Analytics, Inc. VRSK 2/19/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Industrials: B
Alteryx, Inc. AYX 2/19/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Information Technology: D
Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. ESPR 2/19/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F
Quanta Services, Inc. PWR 2/21/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A, US Industrials: A
United Therapeutics Corporation UTHR 2/19/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B

Source: S&P Capital IQ

 

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