morning-quant-ride

Morning Brief

Wake up to the Morning Quant Ride, your global markets update every morning!

Global stocks rising in the wake of US-China trade progress and postponement of US tariffs

Feb 25, 2019

Actionable and Transparent Quantitative ResearchActionable and Transparent Quantitative Research
Actionable and Transparent Quantitative ResearchActionable and Transparent Quantitative Research

 

 

Market data as of 7am EST

 

US Stocks

  • Global stocks are rising in the wake of President Trump delaying the hike in tariffs on Chinese goods after commenting on progress being made with China in extended trade talks over the weekend 
  • US stocks index futures are higher this morning with front-month Dow Jones minis +0.56%, S&P 500 minis +0.43%, and Nasdaq 100 minis +0.63% 
  • President Trump said “The US had made substantial progress in our trade talks with China” in a tweet late this weekend 
  • While Chinese officials echoed President Trump’s optimistic tone, China’s official Xinhua News Agency later published a commentary saying talk may face “new uncertainties” and that the challenges between the countries are “long-term, complicated and arduous” 
  • Emerging Markets ETFs rose for the 19th straight week and have seen USD$31.7 billion 
  • The VIX is little changed this morning and is currently at 13.73 after closing at 13.51 last week
  • News Corp (NWSA) April 18 OTM Puts, FXI March 15 OTM Calls and Eli Lilly (LLY) March 15 OTM Calls & Puts are some of the most heavily traded options in the US pre-market this morning. 
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 2.52 basis points to 2.677%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has widened 0.86 basis points to 0.17%
  • WTI Crude is currently up 0.63% to USD$57.11/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread down USD$-0.37 to USD$9.58/bbl
  • Gold is currently little changed 0.1% to USD$1330.7/oz
     

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data.
 

  • Barrick Gold (TSX:ABX) has made a hostile bid for Newmont Mining (NEM) in a USD$19.4 billion deal.  The deal offers Newmont at its market price as Barrick attempts its second acquisition in the last 6 months.  Barrick and Newmont have had on and off talks about linking up for the last few years.  The gold sector has sees a number of recent deals as its consolidation ramps up.  Barrick Gold is rated “Neutral” in our Canada All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  Newmont Mining is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Covestro (DB:1COV) gave guidance well below market consensus.  Covestro said it sees ebitda of 1.5-2 billion euros, well below the 2.07 billion euros consensus.  Covestro said the glut of advanced polymers and plastics in the market will weigh on its results this year.  Covestro cited Chinese companies undercutting its pricing.  Covestro is rated “Unattractive” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stick Ideas. 
  • Hammerson Plc (LSE: HMSO) shares edged higher following reports that the company is in discussions to sell 900mm pounds (USD$1.2bn) worth of properties. The discussions come following increased pressure from activist shareholder Elliott Advisors after the value of the company’s portfolio dropped 5.9% in 2018. Hammerson is rated “Top Short” in our United Kingdom All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Ipsen SA (ENXTPA:IPN) has agreed to acquire Clementia Pharmaceuticals (CMTA) in a USD$1.3 billion deal.  Ipsen will pay USD$25 per share up front and an additional right value of USD$6 per share.  This is a 77% premium to the last close for the Canadian company.  The acquisition of Clementia will expand the rare disease portfolio of Ipsen, an area of biotech that has seen a lot of deal focus recently.  Ipsen is rated “Unattractive” in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  Clementia is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Warren Buffet said this morning he was “wrong in a couple of ways” about Kraft Heinz Corp. (KHC), which he insists is still a “wonderful” business.  Buffet said “we overpaid for Kraft”, a statement not normally heard from him.  Kraft Heinz Corp took at USD$15.4 billion write-down as part of its most recent results last week, surprising the market.  Kraft Heinz Corp is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Microsoft (MSFT) is dropping the price of its augmented reality goggles HoloLens 2.  The goggles will be cut to USD$3,500 from USD$5,000.  The HoloLens 2 goggles are targeting commercial applications and not consumers at this point, things such as teaching industrial processes or other educational applications.  Microsoft is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Persimmon (LSE: PSN) shares slipped notably lower after a weekend report from the Financial Times indicates that the homebuilder could be banned from the United Kingdom’s Help to Buy program. The report cites that Housing Secretary James Brokenshire is concerned that the company requires buyers to pay annual rent for their new home. Persimmon is rated “Attractive” in our United Kingdom All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Ping An Insurance Co. (SEHK:2318) is planning an IPO of its fintech unit that could value it at up to USD$8 billion.  Ping An Insurance plans an IPO of its OneConnect unit in Hong Kong that could see it reap up to USD$1 billion in the offering.  The IPO could happen as soon as the second half of 2019.  Ping An Insurance is rated “Neutral” in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Roche (SWX:ROG) is acquiring Spark Therapeutics (ONCE) in a USD$4.8 billion deal.  Roche is paying a 122% premium for Sparks which will transform it from a laggard to a leader in gene therapy, paying USD$114.50 or share for Spark.  Spark will give Roche a stable of experimental drugs that it is presently lacking.  Roche is rated “Attractive” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  Spark Therapeutics is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Senvion SA (DB: SEN) shares fell to record lows after the company postponed the publication of its FY2018 financial results. Senvion told investors on Sunday that it is seeking a, “restructuring opinion,” the first step required in Germany to begin negations with banks. Stephan Lienert, a credit analyst with Jefferies, wrote, “We believe delaying results and commissioning solvency reports simply means the cash issues is more acute than even we estimate.” Senvion is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.

 

Better Data for Better Investment DecisionsBetter Data for Better Investment Decisions
Better Data for Better Investment DecisionsBetter Data for Better Investment Decisions

European Stocks

  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently up +0.27%, the FTSE 100 is higher by +0.22%, the DAX has advanced +0.45%, and the CAC 40 has risen +0.46%
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 1.53x
  • Automobiles & Parts (+2.09%), Banks (+1.03%), and Basic Resources (+0.86%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Media (-0.6%), Utilities (-0.34%), and Food & Beverage (-0.22%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • 146 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 19 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 73 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 4 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is moving little changed this morning and is currently at 13.96 after closing at 13.98 last week
  • EUR€ is currently up +0.256% against the USD$ to 1.1364
  • GBP£ is currently up +0.215% against the USD$ to 1.3081
  • CHF is currently up +0.15% against the USD$ to 1.0012
  • German 10-Year Bunds are lower with yields up 1.8 basis points to 0.114%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are lower with yields up 1.5 basis points to 1.173%

Asian Stocks

  • The Nikkei 225 finished up +0.48%, the Hang Seng ended up +0.5%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise up +1.78%, and the CSI 300 was +5.95%
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 3.02x
  • 23 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 5 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 7 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 0 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 0.67x
  • 26 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 1 stock reached 4-week lows
  • 15 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 0 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Japan 2-Year Government Bonds are lower with yields up 0.4 basis points to -0.171%
  • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are lower with yields up 0.2 basis points to -0.035%
  • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.2 basis points to 0.14%
  • China RMB 2-Year Government Bonds are lower with yields up 1.3 basis points to 2.613%
  • China RMB 10-Year Government Bonds are lower with yields up 2.7 basis points to 3.172%
  • China Government RMB 2s-10s Spread has widened 1.4 basis points to 0.56%
  • JPY¥ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 110.76

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

We Crunch the Numbers, You Make the Trade.We Crunch the Numbers, You Make the Trade.
We Crunch the Numbers, You Make the Trade.We Crunch the Numbers, You Make the Trade.

Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right.

Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Amazon.com Inc 264 2.57 6 7 15.38% 15.44%
Apple Inc 125 3.86 -30 -36 -1.63% -11.85%
Facebook Inc 81 5 11 11 5.19% 5.98%
Walmart Inc 55 2 2 1 1.88% 1.88%
Netflix Inc 50 2 1 -3 0.97% 19.97%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right.

Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Halliburton Co 7 5.29 -27 -30 -11.68% -23.26%
AbbVie Inc 13 5.14 -5 -3 2.69% 3.3%
Facebook Inc 81 5 11 11 5.19% 5.98%
Texas Instruments Inc 6 4.86 -8 -12 -3.66% -4.87%
Raytheon Co 6 4.29 -12 -13 1.31% 1.93%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right.

ETF 30D IV 30D IV
Percentile
90D IV 90D IV
Percentile
90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV
Percentile
30D IV-
20D HV
30D IV-20D HV
Percentile
90D IV-
60D HV
90D IV-60D HV
Percentile
SPY 12.28 47.22% 12.55 38.69% 1.02 31.15% 2.22 81.35% -9.28 0.6%
QQQ 16.54 42.66% 16.9 38.49% 1.02 49.21% 1.35 70.44% -11.07 7.94%
IWM 14.37 47.62% 14.75 42.86% 1.03 50.0% 4.03 87.3% -8.4 3.17%
FEZ 13.39 26.98% 14.53 37.7% 1.09 79.56% 1.08 61.51% -2.92 17.26%
EEM 15.86 11.9% 17.32 17.86% 1.09 92.26% 1.32 74.21% -1.26 51.39%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Quantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily ExecutableQuantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily Executable
Quantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily ExecutableQuantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily Executable

Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right

Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
BLOCK H & R INC HRB Consumer Discretionary Diversified Consumer Services 2.76% 1.31% -4.73%
MCCORMICK & CO INC MKC Consumer Staples Food Products 2.53% 3.94% 29.59%
VERISK ANALYTICS INC VRSK Industrials Professional Services 1.37% 0.49% 26.2%
LAMB WESTON HOLDINGS INC LW Consumer Staples Food Products 1.3% 3.47% 26.25%
MCDONALD'S CORP MCD Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure 1.28% 4.85% 7.9%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
IDEXX LABS INC IDXX Health Care Health Care Equipment & Supplies -2.61% -2.11% 26.64%
PREMIER INC PINC Health Care Health Care Providers & Services -2.47% 0.32% 22.39%
FIDELITY NATL FINL FNF GROUP FNF Financials Insurance -1.82% -6.08% -8.31%
VAIL RESORTS INC MTN Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure -1.78% 0.12% 1.08%
GENERAL DYNAMICS CORP GD Industrials Aerospace & Defense -1.63% -1.07% -13.21%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right

Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
CYRUSONE INC CONE Real Estate Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) -8.72% -4.64% -7.58%
INTERCEPT PHARMA INC ICPT Health Care Biotechnology -7.55% -18.37% 48.84%
TARGA RESOURCES CORP TRGP Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -6.58% -5.53% -6.07%
LAREDO PETROLEUM INC LPI Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -6.21% -5.42% -112.7%
CARRIZO OIL & GAS INC CRZO Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -5.88% -0.34% -66.15%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
VISTEON CORP VC Consumer Discretionary Auto Components 8.34% 13.71% -38.52%
PIVOTAL SOFTWARE INC PVTL Information Technology Software 3.37% 8.09% 28.18%
MATTEL INC MAT Consumer Discretionary Leisure Products 3.03% -19.47% -13.12%
SPRINT CORP S Communication Services Wireless Telecommunication Services 2.66% 5.55% 8.87%
MADRIGAL PHARMACEUTICALS INC MDGL Health Care Biotechnology 2.08% 6.1% 25.38%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptos

  • Cryptocurrencies sold off over the weekend after rallying last week as the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is down 7.42% in the last 24 hours to USD$3,847.48. Most major coins are observing double-digit losses over the last 24 hours with EOS (EOS) being hit the hardest, shedding 18.71% to USD$3.56. Ethereum (ETH) is down a massive 14.40% in the last 24 hours to USD$139.88. Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash (BCH), meanwhile, are observing substantial losses, falling 13.63% and 13.05% in the last 24 hours to USD$45.27 and USD$134.85, respectively.  
  • The Central Bank of Bahrain officially introduced crypto regulatory framework, according to a report by news outlet TradeArabia. The new regulatory framework in Bahrain pertaining to cryptocurrencies covers licensing, governance, risk management, Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorist Financing measures, business conduct, conflict of interest avoidance, regulatory reporting, and cybersecurity.  
  • The TRON (TRON) network will hard fork at the end of February to implement a suite of upgrades, some of which include institution-friendly features, according to an announcement by Tron CEO Justin Sun. According to the announcement, the hard fork will enable intuitional-handling capabilities and other features such a multi-signature functionality and account management options.  
  • Coinbin, a South Korean cryptocurrency exchange, officially filed for bankruptcy and owes users more than USD$30mm, according to confirmation from a company correspondent. Coinbin is filing bankruptcy in part due to embezzlement conducted by a senior executive, according to CEO Park Chan-kyu. Coinbin is also claiming that it lost the key for an Ethereum (ETH) wallet that contained over 11 ETH.  

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

High Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for CryptocurrenciesHigh Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for Cryptocurrencies
High Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for CryptocurrenciesHigh Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for Cryptocurrencies

Events Calendar

On Mobile/Tablet scroll to the right

 
Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
Carter's, Inc. CRI 2/25/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Consumer Discretionary: C
McDermott International, Inc. MDR 2/25/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB 2/25/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Industrials: B
Armstrong World Industries, Inc. AWI 2/25/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Industrials: A
The Mosaic Company MOS 2/25/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. HTZ 2/25/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Industrials: C
2U, Inc. TWOU 2/25/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Information Technology: C
Insulet Corporation PODD 2/25/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
RealPage, Inc. RP 2/25/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Information Technology: C
Medpace Holdings, Inc. MEDP 2/25/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
Etsy, Inc. ETSY 2/25/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Information Technology: C
Shake Shack Inc. SHAK 2/25/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F, US Consumer Discretionary: C
DiamondRock Hospitality Company DRH 2/25/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
EPR Properties EPR 2/25/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: A
ONEOK, Inc. OKE 2/25/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Range Resources Corporation RRC 2/25/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F
Pebblebrook Hotel Trust PEB 2/25/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC 2/25/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Centennial Resource Development, Inc. CDEV 2/25/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
BWX Technologies, Inc. BWXT 2/25/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Industrials: A
Sabre Corporation SABR 2/25/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C, US Information Technology: A
Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc. CRZO 2/25/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F
Stericycle, Inc. SRCL 2/25/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F, US Industrials: A
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. CBRL 2/25/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Discretionary: A
Dillard's, Inc. DDS 2/25/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Consumer Discretionary: C
EOG Resources, Inc. EOG 2/25/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. FOLD 2/25/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D

Source: S&P Capital IQ

 

Stock Model PortfoliosMulti-factor quantitatively optimized portfolios risk-adjusted to provide investors an ATTRACTIVERISK/RETURN TRADE-OFF
Stock Model PortfoliosMulti-factor quantitatively optimized portfolios risk-adjusted to provide investors an ATTRACTIVERISK/RETURN TRADE-OFF