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Morning Brief

Wake up to the Morning Quant Ride, your global markets update every morning!

Global stocks rock on today continuing global risk-on as positive data from China and Germany keep the party going

Apr 03, 2019

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Actionable and Transparent Quantitative ResearchActionable and Transparent Quantitative Research

 

 

Market data as of 7am EST

 

US Stocks Preview Ahead of the Open

  • Global markets are rallying today and US stocks index futures are higher with front-month Dow Jones minis +0.43%, S&P 500 minis +0.52% and Nasdaq 100 minis +0.60%
  • China's trade delegation arrived in Washington, DC, led by Vice Premier Liu He, to continue trade negotiations; China cited "new progress" after last week's talks and is looking to build on that momentum
  • China said it will extend its suspension of retaliatory tariffs on autos and include fentanyl on its list of controlled substances, in an effort to generate a positive atmosphere for these talks
  • After a strong start to 2019, only 36% of active managers of large-cap portfolios in the US are beating their respective averages
  • Check out these US Top PicksGO BIG! SIZE MATTERS! Top US Large-Cap Stocks for your portfolio NOW!
  • Read our blog on interest rates: Like a boxer after that knock-out punch, interest rates have tumbled over the last 2 quarters
  • This is real interesting – ETFs focused on the “value factor” saw recording outflows in 1Q, with $4 billion flowing out after seeing more than $10 billion flow in during 4Q.    
  • Utilities stocks, when dividends are included, have been outperforming the Nasdaq Composite since the inception of the Nasdaq benchmark index in 1971!  WOW!  Richard Bernstein Advisors argue this is because, in aggregate, utility stocks are viewed as defensive and not directly linked to GDP growth.   
  • Markit Eurozone PMI for March was 53.3, beating 52.7 consensus
  • Eurozone Retails Sales grew 0.4% in March, beating 0.3% consensus
  • The VIX is little changed this morning and is currently at 13.48 after closing at 13.36 yesterday
  • SPDR S&P500 ETF (SPY) April 3 OTM  Puts, Bank of America (BAC) April 5 Calls and iShares Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) April 18 OTM Puts are the most actively traded options contracts in US pre-market trading this morning.
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 3.93 basis points to 2.5134%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has widened 1.09 basis points to 0.18%
  • WTI Crude is currently up 1.61% to USD$62.58/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread down USD$-1.38 to USD$6.82/bbl
  • Gold is currently little changed 0.04% to USD$1292.99/oz

Stocks Trending in the News
 

Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data

Global Consumer Stocks Trending in the News

  • Dunkin’ Brands (DNKN) was downgraded today to market perform from outperform at BMO Capital Markets.  Dunkin’ Brands saw its price target cut to $75 from $80.  Dunkin’ Brands has an average price target of $71.19 in the market today.  BMO believes the fundamentals of Dunkin’ Brands’ story remains intact but at this point the valuation is “less persuasive.”  Dunkin' Brands is rated "Attractive" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Attractive" in our  US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Henkel AG & Co. KGaA (XETRA: HEN3) shares slid after M.M. Warburg Investment Research downgraded the stock from buy to hold. Over the last 3 months, analysts have lowered the consensus 1-year price target for Henkel AG by 13%. Henkel AG currently maintains 8 buy recommendations, 21 hold recommendations, and 4 sell recommendations across analyst ratings. Henkel AG is rated “Top Short" in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas
  • Lamb Weston (LW) shares edged higher after the company announced FY3Q2019 adjusted EPS of USD$0.95 that beat the highest analyst estimates ranging between USD$0.80 and USD$0.87. Lamb Weston’s net sales of USD$926.8mm in FY3Q2019 also surpassed analyst consensus of USD$895.2mm. Lamb Weston is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Pandora A/S  (CSPE: PNDORA) shares sank after Carnegie published a note that questions the company’s sales growth in China. In its note, Carnegie warned clients that Pandora may have faced challenges in its CY1Q2019 sales in China, citing March sales figures from Alibaba’s website Tmall. Pandora is rated “Neutral" in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Proctor & Gamble (PG)  in under pressure in India and other countries to help deal with the vast amount of waste generated by its disposable products.  India is a particularly attractive market for Proctor & Gamble with massive growth in demand expected for its products and the government is seeking help to deal with the waste generated by disposable diapers and sanitary pads.  Activists in India have called on P&G to help deal with this waste and the health risks it entails.  Proctor & Gamble is rated "Top Buy" in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Top Buy" in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas
  • Superdry Plc (LSE: SDRY) shares fell after co-founder Julian Dunkerton won a battle to rejoin the board of directors of the UK apparel retailer. Since Dunkerton’s initial departure about a year ago, Superdry shares have tanked 65% amid repeated profit warnings from the company. Prior to his re-appointment, Dunkerton had been a vocal advocate of current management, having launched a, “Save Superdry,” website. Superdry is rated “Neutral" in our United Kingdom All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Former Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN) executives hid allegations that founder Steven Wynn sexually harassed women from the Massachusetts Gaming Commission, according to a report from the regulator. The Massachusetts Gaming Commission is now considering revoking Wynn’s license to operate in the state as the company plans to open a USD$2.6bn resort in the Boston Harbor. Wynn Resorts is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.  

Global Information Technology and Communication Services Stocks Trending in the News

  • CommVault Systems (CVLT) shares slipped the most in more than a year after Ron Miller, the company’s Senior Vice President of Worldwide Sales, resigned effective immediately. Miller had spent 19 years with the company, including 8 years in his former role as a Senior Vice President. CommVault Systems is rated "Attractive" in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and "Attractive" in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas
  • Wirecard (XTRA:WRI) said it is unable to publish the full reports the law firm prepared regarding allegations in Singapore.  Wirecard said because of third-party rights it could not release the report as names and details in the report could subject the company to legal risks.  Wirecard is investigating the release of a redacted version to the public.  Wirecard is rated “Neutral" in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.

Global Industrials Stocks Trending in the News

  • Delta Air Lines (DAL) shares appreciated after renewing its 23-year long partnership with American Express (AXP) for an additional 11 years, increasing the likelihood that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) will purchase the airline. Stifel analyst Joseph DeNardi wrote in a note to clients, “While we had suspected that Delta could announce an extension with AmEx at some point this year, this is earlier than we had thought and the improvement in revenue and economics are significantly better than we were expecting.” Delta Air Lines is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas. American Express is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. Berkshire Hathaway is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.  

Global Financial Stocks Trending in the News

  • Ameriprise Financial Inc. (AMP) shares moved higher after the company announced the sale of its auto and home unit to American Family Insurance Mutual Holding Co. for USD$1.05bn in gross cash proceeds. Ameriprise CEO Jim Cracchiolo sees the deal as a way for the company to increase focus on its financial advice, wealth management, and asset management operations. Ameriprise is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  

 

 

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International Stock Markets Recap

  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently up +0.58%, the FTSE 100 is higher by +0.03%, the DAX has risen +1.12%, and the CAC 40 is up +0.54%
  • Basic Resources (+2.05%), Automobiles & Parts (+1.63%), and Banks (+1.43%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Health Care (-0.66%), Food & Beverage (-0.51%), and Personal & Household Goods (-0.44%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 3.29x
  • 168 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 5 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 74 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 3 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • The Nikkei 225 finished up +0.97%, the Hang Seng ended up +1.22%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise up +1.37%, and the CSI 300 was +1.28%
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 1.78x
  • 67 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 5 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 9 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 3 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 6.14x
  • 18 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 0 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 12 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 0 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

 

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