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Morning Brief

Wake up to the Morning Quant Ride, your global markets update every morning!

Global stocks pause, seeking additional US-China trade progress for next leg up, ahead of US jobs report tomorrow

Apr 04, 2019

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Market data as of 7am EST

 

US Stocks Preview Ahead of the Open

  • Global markets are mixed today and US stocks index futures are flat with front-month Dow Jones minis -0.01%, S&P 500 minis -0.06% and Nasdaq 100 minis -0.14%
  • President Trump is set to meet Vice-Premier Liu He as trade negotiations enter the final phase, with hopes for a final deal that could be signed by President Trump and President XI at a summit in the near future
  • Did you know that the S&P 500 has ONLY risen each month of the 1st quarter 20 times since 1950?  If history is any guide, US stocks should continue to rally with the average return +9.5% for the rest of the year when the S&P 500 was positive in January, February and March.
  • JPMorgan (JPM) CEO James Dimon said the volatility investors saw in the fourth quarter is a sign of what's to come, in a letter to shareholders that had a noticeable negative outlook to it
  • Check out these Tech Top Picks: Forget the FANGs, THESE Titans of Techs are what your portfolio NEEDS NOW!
  • Oil remains well bid again today, with WTI crude rising +0.40%, trading at $62.70
  • German factory orders fell 4.2% in February, coming much worse than the 0.3% growth expected
  • Italy is slashing its growth forecast to just 0.1% for the coming year while increasing the expected budget deficit to between 2.3% and 2.4% of GDP
  • The VIX is little changed this morning and is currently at 13.48 after closing at 13.74 yesterday
  • The VIX is getting cheap just in time!  Earnings season is right around the corner and that means there will be a lot of opportunities to play stocks announcements!
  • SPDR S&P500 ETF (SPY) April 5 OTM  Calls, iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) April 5 Calls and iShares Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) April 17 OTM Calls are the most actively traded options contracts in US pre-market trading this morning.
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are higher with yields down -2.51 basis points to 2.499%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.29 basis points to 0.19%
  • WTI Crude is currently little changed -0.19% to USD$62.46/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread little changed USD$0.12 to USD$6.66/bbl
  • Global crude oil prices are slowly edging back up to $70/bbl, a level not seen since November 2018.  The recent US crude stockpiles report put a cap on oil prices in the near term, but if sentiment really shifts positively, expect that crude prices to test the $70 resistance level.
  • Gold is currently little changed 0.11% to USD$1291.34/oz

Stocks Trending in the News

 

Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data.

Global Consumer Stocks Trending in the News

  • Constellation Brands (STZ) is selling a group of wine brands to E&J Gallo.  Constellation is selling about 30 brands to Gallo, all of which sell for less than $11.   The brands being sold represented about 40% of Constellation’s wine sales.  Constellation has been looking to sell its low margin brands after reporting weak earnings in the last quarter.  Constellation Brands is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas 
  • Target (TGT) is boosting the minimum wage it pays employees to $13 per hour, a $1 hike, that will take effect in June.  The hike is part of Target’s announced goal of getting to $15 by the end of 2020.  Target did not say how many employees would see a raise from the move.  Wages at retailers have been rising amid a tight labor market.  Retailers are the largest private employer in the US.  Target is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Tesla (TSLA) has sold almost as many cars as Porsche (DB:PAH3) in its second month of sales in Germany.  Tesla sold 2,367 cars in March in Germany while Porsche sold 2,744.  Porsche saw a 9% sales drop due to new emissions standards while Tesla saw a five-fold jump from its first month to second.  Tesla is rated “Top Short” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.  Porsche is rated “Unattractive” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas

Global Information Technology and Communication Services Stocks Trending in the News

  • Facebook (FB) data is still being found online.  Cybersecurity firm UpGuard found a large stash of Facebook user data stored on Amazon’s (AMZN) cloud service.  UpGuard found a digital platform that used the Facebook data has personal information of 540 million Facebook users in plain sight for anyone who knew how to look closely, according to a Bloomberg report.  Facebook has been able to remove the data in each case but the fact that they are there in the first place concerns security specialists.  Facebook is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.  Amazon is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Micron Technology (MU) was downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley.  Micron’s $32 price target was maintained but the recent move up of the stock makes Morgan Stanley cut the rating, Micron has rallied 51% since December.  Morgan Stanley reiterated that it sees too much optimism in the semiconductor sector.  Micron is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Tencent (TCEHY, SEHK:700) closed Asia’s largest bond placement in over a year, placing $6 billion in bonds.  Tencent placed five, seven, ten and 30-year bonds in the sale.  The largest chunk was #3 billion of 10-year bonds and Tencent looked to lock in low rates for its borrowing.  These priced at 1.45% above US 10-year Treasuries.  Most if the bonds were sold without any yield premium, showing the strong demand for these bonds.  Tencent is rated “Neutral” in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Twitter (TWTR) saw its price target hiked to $41 from $33 at Guggenheim while its buy rating was maintained.  Guggenheim says Twitter is “well positioned to exceed investor expectations over the next several years.”  Guggenheim sees this for Twitter given the steps they have taken to improve the health of the platform.  Twitter is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas
  • Verizon (VZ) launched the 5G era in the US Wednesday, launching a week ahead of schedule in Chicago and Minneapolis.  South Korea also launched its 5G and it is not clear who was first.  Verizon launched first as a show of technological prowess.  5G networks can provide connections that are up to 100 times faster than present connections.  Verizon is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas

Global Industrials Stocks Trending in the News

  • Boeing’s (BA) flight control system was to blame for the crash of the most recent 737 Max, according to a preliminary report from Ethiopian investigators.  The report says pilots followed Boeing’s emergency procedures but were unable to save the jet.  The report puts the spotlight on Boeing to come up with a fix.  Press reports are that a fix from Boeing should come shortly.  Boeing is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas
  • Caterpillar (CAT) was downgraded to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank today.  Deutsche cut Caterpillar’s price target significantly, to $128 from $152.  Deutsche said it is “becoming increasingly clear” that Caterpillar’s backlog growth is about to turn negative, an ominous sign.  Caterpillar faces the prospect of collapsing global growth, Deutsche warns.  The Chinese land cycle is rolling over and there is a glut of equipment in the US.  Caterpillar is rated  is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas
  • Embraer (ERJ) won an order from Africa’s Peace Air worth $2.1 billion.  Peace air ordered 10 Embraer 195 E2 planes with options for another 20 planes.  This will be the first sale of 195 jets in Africa.  Peace Air will use the new planes to expand service as part of its “no city left behind” initiative of expansion.  Embraer is rated “Unattractive” in our Brazil All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.

Global Financial Stocks Trending in the News

  • Blackstone Group (BX) has raised $22 billion for its flagship buyout fund and it is not done.  Analysts expect Blackstone could raise $25 billion for the fund amid a strong fundraising environment.  Blackstone has not yet set a limit on the pool but is seeking to raise a total of $100 billion this year.  $566 billion was raised by private equity funds in 2017 with $432 billion raised last year.  Blackstone Group is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  

Global Commodities & Power Stocks Trending in the News

  • PG&E (PCG) has chosen the head of the Tennessee Valley Authority as its next CEO.  Bill Johnson will take over as its new CEO and a completely new board will be installed.  PG&E is facing $30 billion in liabilities and is trying to steer out of bankruptcy.  Mr Johnson is being chosen for his safety and operational expertise.  PG&E is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.  

 

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International Stock Markets Recap

  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently down -0.28%, the FTSE 100 is down -0.52%, the DAX has risen +0.15%, and the CAC 40 is down -0.24%
  • Chemicals (-0.17%), Financial Services (-0.3%), and Basic Resources (-0.63%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Health Care (-0.38%), Food & Beverage (-0.14%), and Personal & Household Goods (-0.02%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 0.47x
  • 248 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 11 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 126 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 3 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • The Nikkei 225 finished up +0.05%, the Hang Seng ended down -0.17%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise declined -0.11%, and the CSI 300 was +1%
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 0.7x
  • 53 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 15 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 12 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 3 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 0.85x
  • 17 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 1 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 14 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 0 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
     

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

 

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