morning-quant-ride

Morning Brief

Wake up to the Morning Quant Ride, your global markets update every morning!

Green on the Screen! Global markets rising on US-China trade progress with President Trump calling potential deal "monumental"

Apr 05, 2019

Actionable and Transparent Quantitative ResearchActionable and Transparent Quantitative Research
Actionable and Transparent Quantitative ResearchActionable and Transparent Quantitative Research

 

 

Market data as of 7am EST

 

US Stocks Preview Ahead of the Open

  • Global markets are higher on trade optimism and US stocks index futures are higher with front-month Dow Jones minis +0.10%, S&P 500 minis +0.17% and Nasdaq 100 minis +0.19%
  • Both the US and China reported progress in trade talks with President Trump mentioning a potentially "monumental" deal being considered and China calling it a "new consensus"
  • President Trump said "we still have a ways to go" and said a deal is likely still weeks away
  • Read more on US-China trade talks in our blog post: Let's make a deal! China looking to close a trade deal with US as negotiators arrive in Washington
  • The United States change in nonfarm payrolls for March prints at 8:30 AM today. Economists expect 177,000 jobs to be added compared to just 20,000 in the prior period.
  • The United States March unemployment rate prints at 8:30 AM today. Economists expect the US to announce unemployment of 3.8%, matching the 3.8% unemployment rate reported for February.  
  • The ratio between US consumer discretionary and consumer staples stocks has bounced back from its 2H2018 slump and is coming back closer to its 18-year high.  Technical analysts are taking this as a positive sign for US stocks as it suggests there is increasing demand for the %higher beta stock found in consumer discretionary.  For the year, S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary is +18.7% while S&P 500 Consumer Staples is +10.6%. 
  • A JP Morgan survey of institutional money managers with over $700 billion among them showed 54% are seeking fee reductions from the hedge funds where they have investments, this following a ddisastrous2018 for hedge fund performance
  • UK PM Theresa May has requested an extension from the EU of Brexit until June 30th, with France already saying it's "premature" to talk about an extension
  • Check out these Tech Top Picks: Forget the FANGs, THESE Titans of Techs are what your portfolio NEEDS NOW!
  • We highlight ETFs in this post today: Could ingrained beliefs about low-cost ETFs be mistaken? A new study suggests perhaps so
  • The VIX is little changed this morning and is currently at 13.48 after closing at 13.58 yesterday
  • SPDR S&P500 ETF (SPY) April 5 OTM  Calls, iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) April 12 Calls and Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) June 21 OTM Calls are the most actively traded options contracts in US pre-market trading this morning.
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 1.78 basis points to 2.5329%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has widened 0.12 basis points to 0.18%
  • WTI Crude is currently down -0.58% to USD$62.1/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread up USD$0.43 to USD$6.66/bbl
  • Gold is currently little changed -0.14% to USD$1290.4/oz

Stocks Trending in the News

 

Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data.

Global Consumer Stocks Trending in the News

  • Amazon (AMZN) is set to enter the generic drug market as soon as October, according to a note from Cleveland Research.  The note comments that Amazon will likely make a “more meaningful move” into the pharmacy business over the next 12 months.  Amazon also announced it has added some health-related functions to Alexa, including scheduling doctor visits and checking prescriptions.  Amazon is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas. 
  • Nike (NKE) snagged tennis start Naomi Osaka from Adidas (DB:ADS), in a surprise move.  Osaka was expected to sign with Adidas for a record sum, reported to be $8.5 million.  Nike then announced it signed #1 ranked Osaka for an undisclosed amount.  Osaka will wear Nike clothing for the first time later this month.  Nike is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.  Adidas is rated “Neutral” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Roku (ROKU) was downgraded at Guggenheim to neutral from buy.  Roku also saw its price target trimmed to $72 from $77.  Roku is facing competition from a number of large players making its platform vulnerable.  Free content from bigger players on their own platforms is threatening Rolu’s growth outlook, Guggenheim notes, saying Roku is fairly valued at these levels.  Roku is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.

Global Information Technology and Communication Services Stocks Trending in the News

  • Alphabet’s Google (GOOGL) was forced to scrap its outside council that was set up to advise it on complicated ethical issues related to artificial intelligence.  The council, called the Advanced Technology External Advisory Council, became the focus on complaints for the members Google chose for it.  “It became clear that in the current environment, ATEAC could not function as intended,” Google said, so it disbanded the council and will try again.  Alphabet is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Facebook (FB) and other social media executives could be held personally liable for harmful content on their platforms in the UK, according to a report from Bloomberg.  Legislation may be presented as early as Monday with those provisions, the report notes.  UK ministers are unhappy with the rate of progress on self-regulation and are ready to craft government regulations for the space.  The recent massacre in New Zealand and the use of the Facebook platform before and during that incident gave new impetus for the regulations.  Facebook is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Intel (INTC) was downgraded to market perform from outperform at Wells Fargo Securities.  Intel’s price target was raised to $60 from $55.  Wells writes that the downgrade “reflects a more cautious view on the current semi demand and data points” with the close of the first quarter.  Wells is cautious about 2H19 demand with the potential for further weakness, seeing downside to its current expectations.  Intel is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • SAP (DB:SAP) was downgraded to reduce from neutral at Oddo BHF.  SAP saw its price target  cut to 84 euros from 90 euros.  Oddo cut SAP’s target to well below the market average of 107.47 euros.  SAP is trading above 102 euros so Oddo sees significant downside from present levels.  SAP is rated “Unattractive” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Snap (SNAP) is getting into gaming on its platform as it tried to edge into the gaming market.  Snap said its platform will launch multi-player games with its first called Botmoji Party.  Snap is seeking to have users spend more time on its platform and a slew of new games with be launched with development partners.  Snap is further blurring the line between social network and gaming.  Snap is rated “Top Short” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Unattractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.  

Global Industrials Stocks Trending in the News

  • Boeing (BA) has accepted that its flight control systems was to blame for the crash of Ethiopian Airlines.  Boeing’s CEO said “We own it and we know how to fix I,” in a statement following a preliminary report on the crash.   Pilots on the doomed flight followed Boeing’s instructions when problems began, them shut off the system.  Pilots then turned that system back on and the plane crashed.  All 737 Max jets are grounded and it is not clear when they will fly again.  Boeing is rated “Top Short” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas

Global Financial Stocks Trending in the News

  • JP Morgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon commented on banks’ potentially limited ability to help during the next crisis situation.  He commented in his letter to shareholders that new regulations and liquidity requirements will not allow banks to respond as they did during the crisis.  JP Morgan is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas
  • TradeWeb Markets (TW) placed its IPO and started trading Thursday.  Share were priced at $27 and the shares opened the day 27% higher at $34.26.  TradeWeb sold 40 million shares raising $1.1 billion in the sale and twice increased the size of the offering due to demand.  The IPO values TradeWed at $7.9 billion.  TradeWeb is not yet rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.

Global Healthcare Stocks Trending in the News

  • Canopy Growth Corp (TSX:WEED) started trading 5 years ago this week as the first listed pot stock.  Canopy Growth has risen 2,159% since going public, rising higher in a cloud of smoke.  What started as a listing on the Toronto Exchange’s Venture Market with a stock a bot over $1, is now a $15 billion company.   Canopy Growth is rated “Unattractive” in our Canada All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas  

 

Better Data for Better Investment DecisionsBetter Data for Better Investment Decisions
Better Data for Better Investment DecisionsBetter Data for Better Investment Decisions

International Stock Markets Recap

  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently up +0.01%, the FTSE 100 is higher by +0.19%, the DAX is down -0.02%, and the CAC 40 is up +0.25%
  • Automobiles & Parts (+0.63%), Banks (-0.03%), and Personal & Household Goods (-0.48%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Basic Resources (+0.71%), Oil & Gas (+0.34%), and Health Care (-0.05%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 1.44x
  • 168 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 17 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 76 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 2 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • The Nikkei 225 finished up +0.38%, the Hang Seng ended down -0.17%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise declined -0.11%, and the CSI 300 was +1%
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 2.26x
  • 59 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 20 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 13 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 3 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Chinese markets are closed for Tomb Sweeping Day holiday

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

 

Stock Model PortfoliosMulti-factor quantitatively optimized portfolios risk-adjusted to provide investors an ATTRACTIVERISK/RETURN TRADE-OFF
Stock Model PortfoliosMulti-factor quantitatively optimized portfolios risk-adjusted to provide investors an ATTRACTIVERISK/RETURN TRADE-OFF