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Chinese economic optimism lights global risk-on fire, sending global markets higher this morning

Apr 17, 2019

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Market data as of 7am EST

 

US Stocks Preview Ahead of the Open

  • Strong Chinese economic data is fueling global risk-on this morning with global markets rising and front-month Dow Jones minis +0.11%, S&P 500 minis +0.19% and Nasdaq 100 minis +0.29%
  • China posted GDP growth of 6.4% in the first quarter, factory output rose 8.5% in March y/y with retail sales rising 8.7% in March
  • China is pursuing new stimulus measures to boost sales of cars and electronics, according to a Bloomberg report 
  • US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said the US and China have agreed on an enforcement mechanism for a trade deal allowing each side tools against the other if either does not abide by the agreement
  • Critics worry the agreement could run afoul of the WTO and give China a weapon against US companies seeking access to Chinese markets
  • These are Chinese stocks to own: A TRADE DEAL is coming! Get these TOP BUY CHINESE STOCKS 
  • The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) experienced positive inflows of USD$2.23 billion yesterday.  That is the largest amount since October 2, 2018. 
  • Stocks newsletter writer sentiment is at the highest level since October 2018 according to Investors Intelligence (II).  According II, the percentage of bearish newsletter writers is at the lowest levels since mid-November 2018. 
  • Technical analysts are warning the weakness in Russell 2000 stocks is warning sign for the current rally. Currently, little under 30% of stocks in the Russell 2K are below their 200-day moving average, the largest amount since October 2014. We take a different perspective...as we highlighted earlier this week, small-cap ETFs are our favorites and we see the group outperforming large-cap stocks coming out of earnings season.  Remember, like we discussed last week, earnings expectations for 1Q have been slashed the most in 3 years.  US stocks are set for a beat and raise scenario which will be a catalyst to drive a continuation in the current rally. 
  • The yield on the 10-year bond, is back to where it was trading before the FOMC turned more dovish, read more: Before doves flew...The FED FREAK OUT FADES with 10-year yield back to pre-dovish levels
  • The German government now expects GDP growth of only 0.5% in 2019, the slowest growth rate in 6 years
  • Value stocks you need to check out: Everyone loves OUTSTANDING VALUE! These TOP BUY QUALITY VALUE stocks are what your portfolio needs NOW!
  • The US will announce trade balance data for February at 8:30 AM today. Economists expect the US to report a deficit of $53.4bn compared to a deficit of $51.1bn in the prior period.  
  • The VIX is little changed this morning and is currently at 12.12 after closing at 12.18 yesterday
  • SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) April 17 & May 3 OTM Calls and April 17 OTM Puts, Bank of America (BAC) April 18 OTM Calls and Coty (COTY) April 18 & May 17 OTM Calls & Puts are the most actively traded options contracts in US pre-market trading this morning
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 1.26 basis points to 2.603%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has widened 1.24 basis points to 0.19%
  • WTI Crude is currently up 1.03% to USD$64.05/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread down USD$-0.65 to USD$7.56/bbl
  • Gold is currently little changed -0.02% to USD$1276.54/oz

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data.

Global Consumer Stocks Trending in the News

  • Amazon (AMZN) CEO Jeff Bezos argues against those who complain of its market power in the company’s annual letter to shareholders.  Critics complain that Amazon earns 50 cents of every dollar spent online in the US and the power it wields is immense.  For many sellers who originally viewed Amazon as a partner now see them as a competitor.  Many sellers complain that Amazon now sells products similar to theirs, at prices that undercut them in spots on the site that are more prominent than theirs.  Most sellers on Amazon are loathed to invite regulations but at least seem willing to listen to proposals.  Amazon is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) was upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley.  Morgan raised Domino’s price target to $283 from $268 as well.  Morgan thinks concern over decelerating US trends “are overdone.”  Investors are pricing in same-store-sales growth of only 2-3% and Morgan believes this is too bearish given its experience and the fact that Domino’s in the “best in class operator.”   Morgan writes that Domino’s has a “superior consumer value proposition” as it upgrades the stock.  Domino’s Pizza is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Pepsi (PEP) reported first quarter results that beat expectations on strength in sales of its drinks and snacks.  Pepsi’s first quarter adjusted EPS of 97 cents beat the 91 cents consensus.  First quarter revenue of $12.9 billion beat consensus slightly.  Snacks saw a jump of over 5% in revenue.  Pepsi said it would continue strong advertising to maintain the momentum.  Pepsi is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.  

Global Information Technology Stocks Trending in the News

  • IBM (IBM) reported first quarter revenue that showed a drop in cloud computing and artificial intelligence revenue.  IBM blamed the drop on foreign exchange headwinds, saying without that revenue in those units grew 12%.  IBM first quarter EPS of $2.25 matched $2.22 consensus.  Revenue of $18.2 billion missed $18.4 billion consensus.  IBM expects to close the acquisition of Red Hat later this year, its largest acquisition ever and one hoped to fuel its growth.  IBM is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Idea
  • Intel (INTC) said it is not going to continue its efforts to grab a larger share of the mobile handset chip market.  Intel has spent years trying to break into the market and had planned to launch 5G chips in 2020.  But with Apple (AAPL)and Qualcomm (QCOM) resolving their dispute which involves Apple returning to Qualcomm chips, Intel has decided to abandon its efforts to gain share in the space.  Intel said new fifth-generation wireless systems will give it opportunity for growth and it will focus there.  Intel is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.  Qualcomm is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.  Apple is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Netflix (NFLX) reported second quarter guidance with subscriber additions that trailed consensus together with its first quarter results.  Netflix expects to add 5.0 million net subscribers in the coming quarter, well below the 6.09 million consensus.  Netflix reported first quarter adjusted EPS of $0.76 ahead of $0.58 consensus.  First quarter revenue of $4.52 billion matched $4.50 billion consensus.  Netflix added 9.6 million subscribers in the first quarter beating 8.96 million consensus.    Netflix is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.  
  • Qualcomm (QCOM) and Apple (AAPL) have come to a final agreement to end all litigation between the two companies.  Qualcomm and Apple signed a 6-year supply agreement with a 2-year option to extend.  Qualcomm said the deal will add $2.00 to EPS as deliveries ramp up.  The agreement ends all litigation with contract manufacturers as well.  The deal is effective April 1, 2019.  Qualcomm is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.  Apple is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Sprint (S) and T-Mobile (TMUS) have been told by US Justice Department officials that their merger deal is not likely to be approved the way it is presently structured.  The threat to their $26 billion merger is the anti-trust division of the Justice Department.  There is fear the deal could present an unacceptable threat to competition, as they are the #3 and #4 players in the telecom sector.  The proposed merger has been discussed for years as both companies are seeking scale with the merger.  Sprint is rated “Top Short” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.  T-Mobile is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas.

Global Financial Stocks Trending in the News

  • Bank of New York Mellon (BK) reported first quarter earnings that missed consensus.  Bank of New York Mellon’s first quarter EPS of 96 cents trailed the 96 cents expectation.  First quarter net interest margin of 1.20% missed expectation of 1.26%.  Bank of New York Mellon reported $1.8 trillion in assets under management with $34.5 trillion of assets under administration.  First quarter common equity tier 1 ratio of 11%.  Bank of New York Mellon is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Interactive Brokers (IBKR) reported first quarter adjusted EPS of $0.64 ahead of $0.60 consensus.  First quarter revenue of $558 million beat $505 million consensus, increasing 5.9% y/y.  Interactive Brokers increased declared a $0.10 quarterly dividend, matching consensus.  Interactive Brokers saw a 13% jump in net interest income to $29 million.  Interactive Brokers is rated “Top Short” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Morgan Stanley (MS) reported first quarter results that came above consensus.  Morgan Stanley reported first quarter EPS of $1.33, beating consensus of $1.16.  Morgan Stanley delivered $3.73 billion in trading revenue, a touch above consensus.  Like other banks, stock trading revenues were lower as was fixed income trading revenue, though the latter beat consensus.  Morgan Stanley called its results “solid” and described it as “well positioned” to serve its clients, though highlighted the “risks to the global environment remain.”  Morgan Stanley is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas

Global Industrial Stocks Trending in the News

  • CSX (CSX) reported first quarter EPS of $1.02, beating 91 cents consensus.  CSX first quarter revenue of $3.01 billion matched consensus of $3.0 billion.  CSX had an operating ratio of 59.5% in the first quarter, down from 60.3% in the previous quarter.  CSX does not expect the ratio to remain below 60%.  CSX expects capex of $1.6-$1.7 billion this year as it remains focused on service improvements.  CSX is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.   
  • Kansas City Southern (KSU) reported first quarter adjusted EPS that beat consensus. First quarter EPS of $1.54 beat $1.44 consensus while revenue of $674.8 million came above the $667.7 million consensus.  Kansas City Southern reported an operating ratio of 76.2%, well above the 65.8% reported a year ago.  Volumes fell 1% versus a year ago due to one-time service interruptions.  Kansas City Southern is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.

Global Healthcare Stocks Trending in the News

  • Abbott Labs (ABT) reported first quarter results that came generally in line with consensus.  Abbott reported first quarter EPS from continuing operations of 63 cents, beating 61 cents consensus.   Net sales of $7.54 billion came in line with $7.48 billion consensus.  Abbott’s Freestyle Libre diabetes treatment grew 70% fueling the strong growth of its Diabetes Care unit.  Abbott provided second quarter EPS guidance of 79-81 cents while expecting full year EPS to be in the range of $3.15-$3.25.  Abbott Labs is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.

Global Commodity & Power Stocks Trending in the News

  • Vale (VALE) announced it will be restarting its massive Brucutu mine over the next 72 hours, sending iron ore lower.  The market had been concerned about a potential shortage of iron ore given other disruptions of Australian supplies.  A local judge in Brazil has ruled Vale may resume the use of 3 tailings dams at the mine that had prevented its use.  Vale expects a “complete return” of the mine and its 30 million tons of annual capacity by Monday.  Iron ore future fell 3% on the news.  Vale is rated “Neutral” in our Brazil All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.

 

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International Stock Markets Recap

  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently down -0.07%, the FTSE 100 is down -0.12%, the DAX has risen +0.22%, and the CAC 40 is up +0.24%
  • Utilities (-0.54%), Banks (+0.66%), and Basic Resources (-0.87%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Retail (+0.1%), Health Care (-1.47%), and Construction & Materials (-0.05%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is neutral with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 1.01x
  • 225 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 24 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 139 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 5 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • The Nikkei 225 finished up +0.25%, the Hang Seng ended down -0.02%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise up +0.24%, and the CSI 300 was +0.04%
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 1.5x
  • 28 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 22 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 8 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 6 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 0.85x
  • 5 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 7 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 5 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 0 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

 

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